May be a dumb question?

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by PhilRizzo

What's the advantage of a moneyline over a spread. For instance, why wouldn't I take the moneyline on UCONN for tomorrow? Sorry all, I'm new to this

Uconn are heavily favored tommorow. If you take the moneyline you'd virtually only be winning a few nickels or pennies on the dollar.

spreads are usually -110. win a dollar on a 1.10 wagered.

i'm lazy tonight or i'd explain the moneyline better. i'm sure someone else will opine on this.

**bigboydan** · 03-01-06, 01:55 AM

well, lets use your uconn game for the example. the risk isn't worth the reward IMO

when your betting money lines over point spreads on games, you always have to weigh the options on whats the better bet via the math aka find the value.

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by bigboydan

well, lets use your uconn game for the example. the risk isn't worth the reward IMO

when your betting money lines over point spreads on games, you always have to weigh the options on whats the better bet via the math aka find the value.

like in the Lsu game tonight. the line was Lsu +1.5

better value just taking the LSU money-line when the spread is that low IMO

**SBR_John** · 03-01-06, 02:14 AM

I dont play much in baskets but if I did I would NOT play the money lines. 1 point is huge in the NBA. Now in football, because of the 2 point conversion and other factors, a +1.5 to +2.5 line is worth a look at the ML.

**bigboydan** · 03-01-06, 02:21 AM

i feel theres alot of value taking the dog on the money line sometimes in hoops. if the numbers match up good, why not take a shot.

**juuso** · 03-01-06, 03:09 AM

I always take ml for the dog in hoops if the line is below 3 points. See more value in that. I don't ever play favorite ml's tho.

**Doug** · 03-01-06, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by PhilRizzo

What's the advantage of a moneyline over a spread. For instance, why wouldn't I take the moneyline on UCONN for tomorrow? Do all books allow moneyline betting? (I am with sportsbook.com and now betcris) Sorry all, I'm new to this

The only dumb question is the one that's not asked ! All books alow ML except in cases of great mis-matches, then only books with balls have a ML.

A spread has the purpose of equalizing teams, NY Knicks are inferior to Dallas Mav's, give the Knicks 13 points or so, it becomes tough to bet Dallas, esp. if game is at MSG.

The spread is very effective in hoops for equalizing teams of differing talents.

I bet the knicks to beat SA spurs yesterday, I think it was, but got about 23:1 on it ( lost).

It's not an advantage, it's an alternative. Many ways to bet a game exist,you can bet spread, ML's, halves, quarters, props, whatever.

**JoshW** · 03-01-06, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by Doug

It's not an advantage, it's an alternative. Many ways to bet a game exist,you can bet spread, ML's, halves, quarters, props, whatever.

Great way of explaining it. Not special, just another way to bet.

**PhilRizzo** · 03-01-06, 01:38 PM

I can understand the value thing, but wouldn't it be smart to bet $110 and make a quick $100 on UCONN?

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by PhilRizzo

I can understand the value thing, but wouldn't it be smart to bet $110 and make a quick $100 on UCONN?

well Uconn needs to win the game by *19 points* if you want to win that 100 dollars.

**The Great One** · 03-01-06, 02:32 PM

What book has a UCONN moneyline vs. South Florida is the question I'd like answered. Usually in basketball, if a team is favrored by over 10 points, moneylines are not even in play at all. I use sportsbooks.com and did not see a moneyline on this game.

**JayEgdarWho** · 03-01-06, 02:35 PM

@ Pinnacle that easy $100 on UConn only requires risking $2600.

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by JayEgdarWho

@ Pinnacle that easy $100 on UConn only requires risking $2600.

lol UNC Charlotte's money line tonight is -4600

**JayEgdarWho** · 03-01-06, 02:46 PM

That's what I'd call an "elimination game." If I ever lose 46 units in two hours, I will be done on the spot.

Seriously, as scary as the MLs are here, laying the wood would scare me as much or more. What's the motivation for any of these teams to crush anybody right now? Get the win, get out of there, get ready for the tourney(s).

**The Great One** · 03-01-06, 03:18 PM

How about that. I'm going to be signing up at Pinnacle in about 23 days, 6 hours. I had no idea they had those kinds of moneylines.

Why do they do it on games like UCONN/South Florida. There are waaaaay more times than not that UCONN will win that bet so they will at least be down a few thousand.

Have there been any games this season where teams that are favored by over at least 19 points lost?

**JayEgdarWho** · 03-01-06, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by The Great One

How about that. I'm going to be signing up at Pinnacle in about 23 days, 6 hours. I had no idea they had those kinds of moneylines.

Why do they do it on games like UCONN/South Florida. There are waaaaay more times than not that UCONN will win that bet so they will at least be down a few thousand.

Have there been any games this season where teams that are favored by over at least 19 points lost?

Ask a few guys on this board about Penn at Columbia about 10 days ago.

**The Great One** · 03-01-06, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by JayEgdarWho

Ask a few guys on this board about Penn at Columbia about 10 days ago.

So one game. I seriously didn't know there were moneylines like that. If you are going to bet like that, I'd think you would be better with a extremely sure thing. Ivy league is Ivy League. Not a huge difference in #1 to #8 in my opinion. It seems most games are somewhat close. All those teams are smart and fundmanentally sound, but suck at basketball.

Might as well bet Duke at home against Davidson or something of that nature.

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by The Great One

So one game. I seriously didn't know there were moneylines like that. If you are going to bet like that, I'd think you would be better with a extremely sure thing. Ivy league is Ivy League. Not a huge difference in #1 to #8 in my opinion. It seems most games are somewhat close. All those teams are smart and fundmanentally sound, but suck at basketball.

Might as well bet Duke at home against Davidson or something of that nature.

I would twitch for years if I layed a -3600 odds and lost.

**JayEgdarWho** · 03-01-06, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by The Great One

So one game. I seriously didn't know there were moneylines like that. If you are going to bet like that, I'd think you would be better with a extremely sure thing. Ivy league is Ivy League. Not a huge difference in #1 to #8 in my opinion. It seems most games are somewhat close. All those teams are smart and fundmanentally sound, but suck at basketball.

Might as well bet Duke at home against Davidson or something of that nature.

I should hasten to add that not one of the very accomplished cappers on this board, as much as they loved Penn, thought for a second about playing the ML -- rather they lay the 16 or whatever it ended up as.

Beyond that, I don't know what to say to you other than good luck, and start small.

**Bill Dozer** · 03-01-06, 04:16 PM

One of the hardest parts of becoming a successful "gambler" is spotting the value and doing it fast. No matter how good you are at math or how good your feel is for letting sharp books tell you what to bet, this is something we can all get better at. You want to be able to figure out which option is most profitable in the long run.

Here is a great thread about how much half points are worth in different situations.

http://forum.sportsbookreview.com/showthread.php?t=7209&highlight=money+line

If you can get a feel for the value of a half point off different spreads, you can begin to figure out if buying or selling the whole spread is good value. Money Lines can be the better deal a lot of times, especially when the line manager moves the spread and not the ML.

The consensus is that a half point is worth in the vicinity of 7 cents. This is just an example as the value of a half point varies depending on the spread.

04:05 PM 702 Cleveland Cavaliers -3 -107 with a ML -149. If you sold each point for 14 cents you would be at -149. So, if you believe evry half is worth minimum 7 cents, you would hit the ML.

**Ganchrow** · 03-01-06, 04:23 PM

One advantage to taking very large NCAA basketball money lines at Pinnacle is that they tend to be offered at lower vig than their spread counterparts.

St John's +1140
Villanova -1600
theoretical hold: 2.14%
line set equivalent: -104.5

Connecticut -2800
South Florida +1840
theoretical hold: 1.68%%
line set equivalent: -103.5

Duquesne +2500
NC Charlotte -4200
theoretical hold: 1.50%
line set equivalent: -103.1

**JayEgdarWho** · 03-01-06, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by ganchrow

One advantage to taking very large NCAA basketball money lines at Pinnacle is that they tend to be offered at lower vig than their spread counterparts.

Good stuff, and good to know.

For me, the phrase in my head when looking at lines like this is "element of ruin." On the top side, of course.

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 04:33 PM

"Money Lines can be the better deal a lot of times, especially when the line manager moves the spread and not the ML."

How frequently does this occur? It seems like it'd be the only way to go if the spread was changed and the ML was not...yet you just sell all of the points on the spread.

**The Great One** · 03-01-06, 04:43 PM

At Pinnacle, can you do huge moneyline favorire parlays and if so, what is the maximum bet allowable. Like today, what do you think would be the profit, if you did a 8 team parlay with all bets being at -1000 or greater? Just curious because until now, I didn't even know you could make those bets.

**Bill Dozer** · 03-01-06, 04:47 PM

MLs and spreads will usually change independently. You can watch Pinnacle's dynamic lines or open two windows of SBRlines and see the color changes.

**presley177** · 03-01-06, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by The Great One

At Pinnacle, can you do huge moneyline favorire parlays and if so, what is the maximum bet allowable. Like today, what do you think would be the profit, if you did a 8 team parlay with all bets being at -1000 or greater? Just curious because until now, I didn't even know you could make those bets.

i was on betwwts..and looked it up for you...9 team parlay..heavy favorites..100 bucks

9-TEAM PARLAY
1. Geo Washington -1300
Florida -1350
Iowa -1100
Houston U -1050
UTEP -1000
North Carolina -1100
MEM Grizzlies -875
Alabama -810
San Diego State -740
Risking $100.00 to win $135.66

**Ganchrow** · 03-01-06, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by The Great One

Like today, what do you think would be the profit, if you did a 8 team parlay with all bets being at -1000 or greater? Just curious because until now, I didn't even know you could make those bets.

Were you to parlay 8 favorites for $100, each listed at -1000/+740, you'd win $114.36 with 37.36% frequency and lose $100 with 62.64% frequency. Your total expected loss on the parlay would be $19.91.