2 Main Reasons Why Gamblers Go Bust

[astrodomer]

My problem has ALWAYS been money management kills me everytime

[OldSchool75]

alot of you might not like to hear this, but its FACT..

gambling has NOTHING to do with being able to pick winners. that's right.. NOTHING..


gambling is all about #'s.. it's a #'s game and that's it.. gambling is MATHEMATICS.. whether you want to believe this or not, it's the TRUTH... no one can handicap winners and make money consistently in a lifetime by not getting the best # on every game, even if your name is JIMMY The Greek..


The top 20 baseball writers/specialists in america are all down an avg of 25 units this year in bases..

The top 20 NFL analysts/specialits (ESPN guys, MLB.com guys, etc...).. all are like 8-16 ATS this year.. and these guys are all the most knowledgeble NFL guys worldwide.

does this still make you think you can make money by just handicapping??

Gambling does have something to do with picking winners. If you can pick winners and do the things you talk about you will be a better gambler than the guy w/o talent who only know numbers.

[70kgman]

I consider my specialty capping basketball totals. Ironically that is the sport I know the least about, I don't watch basketball and honestly couldn't name a single college basketball player. It is all math and numbers. Being an "expert" in different sports is over-rated.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Bet more than they should
Do not bet same amount per game all the time

But you bet a 100 a game and are -40k

[donjuan]

donny, welcome back, i thought you were dead. i haven't seen you in yrs.. donny, you know damn right what i mean... i am talking about the kids here and your everyday gambler that handicaps games and lays -110 and never shop.. not those computer groups, syndicates, and pros out there...

there's only a handful of them worldwide and there are certainly none at SBR..

Only a handful worldwide yet there are tons of moves on a single game every week and you'll play any steam move...

[Sunde91]

So Nicky, a guy who randomly makes picks with the best lines/prices on the market will fare better in the long run than a guy who caps games with worse lines/prices??

Nicky, there's a problem: you're presuming the perfect legitimacy of the line. The line is not some objective standard given from on-high by the oddsmakers; it is a contrivance based on projections formed by a ton of numbers that attempts to handicap teams in order to (theoretically) draw even action on both sides. In essence, the line is fueled by probability, but that probability is based off past events, which is, obviously, imperfect when used to project future events. The line is also subject to market inefficiency, as it is usually, but not always, adjusted in accordance with the direction of money placed on either side. One can exploit imperfect projections and market inefficiencies by CAPPING, i.e. to use various reasoning (like induction or deduction) to come to the conclusion that one side has a better, or more foreseeable, chance to win.

And the "best line" is a relative term based on the very same imperfections and inefficiencies of the line itself. So say you get a -300 ML when the market line is -330, but the "true" line is more like -250, you're still getting a "bad line", but it's impossible to tell and it's all relative. The reason people pick certain plays, and not randomly, is because they ascertain some knowledge (through capping) they believe gives them an edge, or because they intuitively feel it's the right play. Based on this knowledge/feeling, they shop for the best price.

Capping obviously isn't perfect, but I would say a solid capper will betting worse lines will fare better in the long run than someone betting better lines randomly.

And people don't go bust directly (the topic was going bust and not just losing in the long run) because of bad lines/prices, but it often leads to it. Bad lines/prices/juice will leave a capper, who let's presume hits a steady 50% with little variance, in the red, but it's not what causes bust. Being deeper in the red from bad lines/prices/juice will cause frustration to a steady 50% capper, which will lead to tilt, which leads to bust.

[donjuan]

So Nicky, a guy who randomly makes picks with the best lines/prices on the market will fair better in the long run than a guy who caps games with worse lines/prices??

If you're talking about the line at or near close then I'll definitively say yes.

[lakerboy]

Sunde just listen to Nicky. It wil be better of in the long run.

If pinny is giving you bills -5 at -105 and you can beat that line you take it . NO questions asked. IF you beat the closing number you are a long term winner. The problem with most gamblers is that they bet the game they like and think they have it figured out based on there projection( capping). You cant predict events. You just cant win like that long term. If you are doing this for fun to get entertainment than its no big deal to you. If you are doing this to make something from it then you dont need to cap. I can hardly name any players on the teams but i win more than many people because 90% of the time "my capping " is looking for a better line than pinny and betting off numbers and hammering mistakes by books and locals that wait too long to move the line. YOu must beat the closing vig line to win long term. The times when i do try to cap and when i get beat by the market move at the end i feel like shit cause i know its almost a sure loss and i move on and try to learn something from that so i dont repeat that mistake. For exapmle i took the seahawks on the ML last night at -125 but when the pinny line dropped from -130 to -120 2 minutes before tip i knew in the back of my mind it was gonna be a losing ticket. Also saw the rams tt over 19.5 -110 and under -106. Seahawks tt over 20.5 -105/under 20.5 -111.

[ZetaPsi808]

lakerboy nice post pal

[RonPaul2008]

no need to bet same amount on all games............ stupid statement jj

QFT

[RonPaul2008]

Betting flat is a joke. If the number is +ev then bet it for the max and cover some or all on the other side.

[ssk13809]

How is "Math" so important in betting? This is coming from someone who is good at math. I don't see the relevancy here.

[pavyracer]

How is "Math" so important in betting? This is coming from someone who is good at math. I don't see the relevancy here.

Have you seen any high school math teachers make thousands of money every year?

[-105]

Have you seen any high school math teachers make thousands of money every year?

In all my years I never heard it said so beautifully!

[Nicky Santoro]

instead of trying to pick winners, you should read Lakerboy's post again and you kids should do this instead.

if only you knew how winning money gambling has nothing to do with picking winners and really is simple mathematics.

do you think it's really easy predicting bears would be flat yesterday after looking like super bowl champs vs Dal recently and were 3-0 and NYG were crap all year.. or do you think you could have predicted all those ML dogs winning outright yesterday?

you won't beat this game doing this cause anything can happen in any given game and not one person can predict what is going to happen in a game.. however, there is 1 person that can predict what is going to happen at the end.. and his name is mathematics..

i swear on a stack of bibles.. and GOD is my witness.. i can't name you 1 player in NCAAB or NCAAF.. not one.. yet they are my 2 most successful sports by far.
how come?? you don't need to know anything in sports to make money.. knowing all this stuff helps you 0% in sports gambling.. and try to remember that..

[Regul8er]

[quote=Nicky Santoro;6687407]however, there is 1 person that can predict what is going to happen at the end.. and his name is mathematics.. quote]

Great line Santoro........gotta love it.

[jolmscheid]

Hey Nicky...when do you decide to pull the trigger on a play? When you can get 5 cents better than Matchy or Pinny? 7 cents? 10 cents?

[blueghost]

by the time you figure out what you are supposed to do your bankroll is to low to do anything about it

[-105]

instead of trying to pick winners, you should read Lakerboy's post again and you kids should do this instead. if only you knew how winning money gambling has nothing to do with picking winners and really is simple mathematics. do you think it's really easy predicting bears would be flat yesterday after looking like super bowl champs vs Dal recently and were 3-0 and NYG were crap all year.. or do you think you could have predicted all those ML dogs winning outright yesterday? you won't beat this game doing this cause anything can happen in any given game and not one person can predict what is going to happen in a game.. however, there is 1 person that can predict what is going to happen at the end.. and his name is mathematics.. i swear on a stack of bibles.. and GOD is my witness.. i can't name you 1 player in NCAAB or NCAAF.. not one.. yet they are my 2 most successful sports by far. how come?? you don't need to know anything in sports to make money.. knowing all this stuff helps you 0% in sports gambling.. and try to remember that..

You do realize teaching others to do what you do will make what you do harder, log off please

[pavyracer]

Didn't they make a movie with Russel Crowe about that famous mathematician who won the Nobel Prize? I believe he was broke.

[ssk13809]

Really? If you want to make money, know your sport, and play the MLs. The problem is people don't do that. And thus the goals of the teams they bet on are not the same as the goals of their. But when you bet MLs, the goal of your team and yours is the same, which is play to win. And that's where you will make money.

So now the question is can you predict which team is going to win? Sure. I finish 99th percentile in most pick'em contests. NFL, NCAB, NBA, etc. And if you can do that, you are good to go. As long as you stick with MLs.



I mean come on, Consistently finishing high in pick'em contests + MLs + Solid Math Intuition = Profit Long-Run.

[PingPong]

has anyone mentioned alcohol?

[Untowire]

.


In my opinion,

Greed should be on top of list.




.

[constrictor]

man this thread is good

[MJFtheGenius]

Really? If you want to make money, know your sport, and play the MLs. The problem is people don't do that. And thus the goals of the teams they bet on are not the same as the goals of their. But when you bet MLs, the goal of your team and yours is the same, which is play to win. And that's where you will make money.

So now the question is can you predict which team is going to win? Sure. I finish 99th percentile in most pick'em contests. NFL, NCAB, NBA, etc. And if you can do that, you are good to go. As long as you stick with MLs.



I mean come on, Consistently finishing high in pick'em contests + MLs + Solid Math Intuition = Profit Long-Run.

He is right...

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the toughest thing for most gamblers is not upping their betting size during hot streaks. Guaranteed lots of guys go broke with one bad bet after a string of good ones. Then they chase the big loss and go into suicide mode.

[frostno98]

Bet more than they should
Do not bet same amount per game all the time

Anybody's name in particular ring a bell.

[nyed1010]

Chasing money. End thread.

[BRAVES1985]

flat betting is boring