Lock of the Year #2 Steelers -1

[$Burm$]

Not sure where you got that 85% number at. It's more like 69%.. Also the line dropped due to sharps pounding the steelers because batch or leftwich will be starting, not dixon. As I said before, it doesn't matter who is the QB for the steelers this week, the steelers will win this game on defense. However, the steelers will still put up points on offense. They are a run the ball play hard nosed defense team.

, is that who the sharps are pounding......, dream on pal...also please share where u got that 69% number from.... thanks

[Power Play]

If the Bucs don't turn the ball over they should win this game. They've got to understand the steelers defense is more dangerous OFFENSIVELY than the steelers offense.

[kempf]

Not sure where you got that 85% number at. It's more like 69%.. Also the line dropped due to sharps pounding the steelers because batch or leftwich will be starting, not dixon. As I said before, it doesn't matter who is the QB for the steelers this week, the steelers will win this game on defense. However, the steelers will still put up points on offense. They are a run the ball play hard nosed defense team.

this is a laughable statement.

[TiTlist]

under is for sure the play. not betting but in my pickum i might ge obucs

[texashighroller]

i agree with this one

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Nothing is a gift in this industry. The sooner you learn that the less you'll lose. Only lean I have on this game is the Under but will probably stay away from this crappy game.

[jjgold]

Who the fuk knows
It's who fumbles, int's

Under

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Some of you are missing the point. I keep hearing "tampa bay 2-0".. Again, tell me who in the fukk the bucs beat. That's right they beat the cleveland clowns who are gonna end up starting 0-10 before they even get a win (look at their schedule) and the carolina panthers who are starting rookie jimmy clausen. On the other side you have the steelers who with the same qb situation(minus dixon now) beat the falcons(who scored 40+ in week 2 after losing to pitt) and the titans(7 turnovers) both playoff teams. Both weeks the steelers seemed "too easy". Steelers were 3 point and 6 point dogs. For those expecting Tampa Bay to go 3-0 go to your doctor and get ur head checked.

Weeks 1 & 2: They were the side that "seemed" too easy, as opposed to the automatic public plays on Atlanta & Tennessee?

Yeah, O.K.

That's quite antithetical to what you're trying to push through here with how the line is set for this game. Mind you, sometimes the oddsmakers are wrong, but they were really incorrect in evaluating how good this defensive unit is. This group easily rivals the days of Seale, Buckner, Steed, Brown, Kirkland, Greene, Lloyd, Lake & Woodson.

Now, with definitive tape from 2 games in front of them, I'd be very concerned with what the opening line was set at, and that it is still not returning to '2' or even '1.5' since retreating to '1'.

I hope you REALLY know this Steeler team inside & out, and are not just going off what seems like an automatic Lock of the Century, or whatever ridiculous title that you've labeled it. Even if you want to put your spin on the Houston game that purely the end result, solely being of paramount importance, is all that constitues what you meant a lock to be, then this game is not a "lock"; this game certainly does not present the best probability of covering.

[kmarinouofm]

who does the steelers have as back up qb? leftwich was released right and dixon got injured?

yeah and i don't think charlie batch will get it done..

[hockeybum16]

Steelers haven't scored an offensive touchdown all year...and now they are starting their 3rd or 4th stringer Charlie Batch who had 19 yards on 13 attempts...not good. Their defense is straight nasty, but I don't know that you can consider it a lock that they play shut down football 3 weeks in a row and on the road this week. Tampa Bay is a home dog who is 2-0, granted they beat some terrible teams in Cleveland & Carolina, but that 2-0 record has given them confidence to play at a higher level than anyone thought they could. Seems way to close to consider it "a lock".

If anything the play is the under.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Not sure where you got that 85% number at. It's more like 69%.. Also the line dropped due to sharps pounding the steelers because batch or leftwich will be starting, not dixon. As I said before, it doesn't matter who is the QB for the steelers this week, the steelers will win this game on defense. However, the steelers will still put up points on offense. They are a run the ball play hard nosed defense team.

I agree that they could very well win this game by 7 more without an offensive touchdown, but the Steelers have not been a "run-the-ball" team since the days of Rich Tylski/Wayne Gandy, and Jeff Hartings' M.V.P.-like season in '05.

[kmarinouofm]

guys there is no point in comparing offense to defense here..

Ok so the steelers D has been amazing.. well we expected that because it has been amazing the last few years.. however i expect Tampa who has always been a Defense minded ball club to be strong enough to stop Charlie Batch..

Guys this line opened at -3.. and is now -1 everyone in this forum including their mothers is taking Pitt and laying the house payment on it..

So why is vegas and offshore in such a hurry to give you a better number then the guy who bought it yesterday???

I mean come on guys.. don't you learn? Didn't the Jets teach you this lesson on Sunday? No? How about the Vikings? No? How about the Eagles? or the even the Texans? Did none of you watch those games and watch those spreads and lines?

didn't you learn anything?

if you didn't .. go ahead and take pitt this weekend.. but i assure you there are much better matchup's this weekend then this game folks..

I mean even Pitt is expecting to go 2-2 before Ben gets back.. it's almost like the franchise is ready to drop two games now on the road..

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Steelers haven't scored an offensive touchdown all year...

.....in regulation.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Didn't the Jets teach you this lesson on Sunday?

Now, in fairness, that Pats' line went from (-1) to (-3).

[kmarinouofm]

Not sure where you got that 85% number at. It's more like 69%.. Also the line dropped due to sharps pounding the steelers because batch or leftwich will be starting, not dixon. As I said before, it doesn't matter who is the QB for the steelers this week, the steelers will win this game on defense. However, the steelers will still put up points on offense. They are a run the ball play hard nosed defense team.

bro how does that work? Sharps are pounding the Steelers.. yet the books want to give them a better price by adjusting from -3 to -1? Is that how you think a book works? they get tons of action on one side and then drop the spread because they are getting pounded on it?

wouldn't that be counterproductive ? Or a thing we call RLM?

[kmarinouofm]

Now, in fairness, that Pats' line went from (-1) to (-3).

yes because they wanted to have joe public see that line run away and think it was an easy play..

did you even watch the lines the day of the game?

they were offering like +105 to +110 and higher at some places to take New ENgland -3..

with the entire world playing the pats.. you think a book is going to give you plus money on a side that is getting pounded and is going to win? NOPE


Shit i think even Pinny was offering a -2.5 at +100 and so was Phoenix

[goldengreek]

The oddsmakers have thrown us a gift on this one. The bucs are not a good team. They are 2-0 after winning against cupcakes like carolina and cleveland. The steelers on the other hand have beat 2 contenders in the falcons and titans. The line is low because of the steelers QB situation and the fact that the bucs are 2-0 and are at home in week 3. Honestly it doesn't matter who the QB is for the steelers. The steelers win winning football games on defense. Charlie Batch is expected to start for the steelers. For those that don't know, batch is fully capable of putting up points.. He knows the steelers offense well. The steelers are a pound the football team so he's not gonna have to do a whole lot throwing the ball. I expect the steelers defense to put up points and i'm not even sure the tampa bay bucs will score any points in this game. The steelers forced 7 turnovers on the titans last week and that was the titans and this is the bucs we're talking about. Add to that he steelers defense held the falcons to only 6 points in week 1 and the falcons put up 40+ in week 2.. I think the bucs will be lucky if they even get 2 field goals in this game, i don't see any TD's for the bucs.. Take the gift that keeps on giving and thank me later. GL

No offense...but TB is gonna be a HUUUUUUGE play for me... as big as the Jets were this past sunday

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Alright, your rhetorical questions are obvious, but setting an adjusted, idexed '3' is very common -- what is not that common is moving off of the '2.5' once it's already moved with money from a lower number.

I see what you're saying, but it was situational too, what with the Jets' state at the time, & playing at home nonetheless.

Still, it wasn't an entirely comparable situation to this Steeler/Bucs game. A good index of (3) for a visitor is very key and hard to go past considering what kind of play it was regardless of the public.

You're getting into the vein of thinking that solely based on going with the house money on line moves that you're going to be a cozy, comfy, crafty invester. It's true a good number of times, but it's not ironclad.

[Smoke]

, is that who the sharps are pounding......, dream on pal...also please share where u got that 69% number from.... thanks

my fault, i made a typo.. the sharps are on tampa that is what i meant to say.. 69% on steelers yet line dropped.. go back to my previous posts

[BookieOweMe]

units!

[Smoke]

bro how does that work? Sharps are pounding the Steelers.. yet the books want to give them a better price by adjusting from -3 to -1? Is that how you think a book works? they get tons of action on one side and then drop the spread because they are getting pounded on it?

wouldn't that be counterproductive ? Or a thing we call RLM?

again, i said i made a typo.. sharps are pounding tampa, my mistake, my bad

[Faustman]

I like Pitt this weekend.

[Smoke]

For all you tampa bay supporters, i just don't get it. Team that was supposed to be 0-2 right now and beats cupcakes like cleveland and carolina and you guys jump all on the bucs bandwagon because you don't like the line vegas puts out.. Vegas doesn't decide how the players on the field perform. Use common sense.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

1st-half UNDER -- even if it's 16-even.

You want the best probability of cashing? Take that.

[Dave ATS]

OK guys, here is the deal. This line does look fishy...no doubt. I would not worry about Batch starting, he is quite competent. This Steeler D is insane with Troy and Smith back healthy. What all of you are missing is that Tomlin came from Tampa and worked with Morris as well. Hmmmm. This is a battle of minds on the coaching side with one trying to take advantage of the others mindset. These 2 coaches know each other inside and out and are personal friends. With that being said, don't be suprised if the Steelers cover this spread and that is where my money is going.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

For all you tampa bay supporters, i just don't get it. Team that was supposed to be 0-2 right now and beats cupcakes like cleveland and carolina and you guys jump all on the bucs bandwagon because you don't like the line vegas puts out.. Vegas doesn't decide how the players on the field perform. Use common sense.

Explain, though, using common sense, how Pittsburgh is going to alter the overall field position battle on offense. I mean, go into detail how the offensive attack is going to go. I don't think that you've considered how much more solid of a unit that Tampa's defense is, especially with Aquib Talib back. This is exactly the type of collective D-line skill set that should give PITT's offensive front A LOT of problems.

Danny Sepulveda is finally becoming a top-tier punter, but more importantly let's just say that Mendenhall and Caddy should both be benched in everyone's fantasy league this week.

[Smoke]

Explain, though, using common sense, how Pittsburgh is going to alter the overall field position battle on offense. I mean, go into detail how the offensive attack is going to go. I don't think that you've considered how much more solid of a unit that Tampa's defense is, especially with Aquib Talib back. This is exactly the type of collective D-line skill set that should give PITT's offensive front A LOT of problems.

Danny Sepulveda is finally becoming a top-tier punter, but more importantly let's just say that Mendenhall and Caddy should both be benched in everyone's fantasy league this week.

Ok, let me explain as simple as possible. Charlie Batch has been around awhile, he is fully capable of running this steelers offense. He's done it before. I would've actually started batch over dixon in my opinion. The steelers franchise has always been a run first team until recently they gave big ben more freedom to throw the ball. The steelers will go back to basics with batch at the helm and they will pound that football so far down the bucs throat it won't be funny. You wanted to talk about field position. The bucs will be on their own end of the field for most of this game. The steelers defense is just too good for some young QB to take advantage of. The steelers defense will decide the field position.. This will lead to more than a few steelers field goals if they can't get the 7 on each drive.

[Plu$Money]

This game has 49ers/ Seahawks from week one written all over it.. Niners got pounded at -3 yet the line still dropped and Seahawks rolled on them.. Then to top that San Fran plays the defending champs on Monday night and everyone pounds the saints because the niners looked so bad the previous week.. And guess what happens, the niners cover and the books collect again..

[Dex17]

I agree with you on this one, although you were absolutely hating on the Skins and they should have covered, especially with that field goal that didn't count b/c the time out.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Ok, let me explain as simple as possible. Charlie Batch has been around awhile, he is fully capable of running this steelers offense. He's done it before. I would've actually started batch over dixon in my opinion. The steelers franchise has always been a run first team until recently they gave big ben more freedom to throw the ball. The steelers will go back to basics with batch at the helm and they will pound that football so far down the bucs throat it won't be funny. You wanted to talk about field position. The bucs will be on their own end of the field for most of this game. The steelers defense is just too good for some young QB to take advantage of. The steelers defense will decide the field position.. This will lead to more than a few steelers field goals if they can't get the 7 on each drive.

Well, I hope you can come out on top here, but this team has lacked the personnel on the O-line to live up to the dated mantra of "Steeler Football" for a while now. Now, if Ramon Foster can ever get out of Kugler's doghouse (for whatever reason, I do not know), and if David Johnson remains the lead blocker, then they should be able to have a decent running game.

And, yes, I did also opine in another thread about Batch starting over Leftwich being integral to this game.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Ok, let me explain as simple simply as possible.

Adverbs, people.

[lakerboy]

The thing you are failing to realize is that the books want you to take the steelers. Yes they dont control the players on the field but everything is applied into the line. This is a holiday in sunny florida for the steelers. You gotta look at the whole picture not just what you think will happen. You have the perception the steelers are still the same team from old tmes. IF the steelers cant run the ball ( which they wont ) they will have to throw a few passes and the bucs have a good defense and good corners and will convert points on defense themselves. It is not as easy as you think. TB is the play regardless if they win or not. Long term you take TB. Go and check how home dogs are doing so far this year on the spread.

[LT Profits]

AGAIN, you are proclaiming a square highly public play as a "Lock"

83% of bets are on Pittsburgh here, yet look at the line.

This is Bucs or pass for me, not sure which yet.

[Stealinhome]

Looks like Pitt or pass to me. TB who are average team playing the best D in the NFL, where is the long term edge in that?

[kcDdegenerate]

Not an easy game....staying away myself

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