This Thread Is For Guys That Preach VALUE

[Grandmaster B]

You're as blind as you are retarded.

NFL
MLB
NBA
NCAA


anytime you want to have a handicapping challenge let me know...1 month sample...graded and tracked here...1 play a day...loser leaves SBR

until then back to your compd roast beef

[pico]

lost

[shari91]

It is not easy finding how to calculate your winning probability per side. The most difficult part about it is having enough data to backtest your accuracy which is a full time job that most do not have the time for. As a recreational player I think it is ok to know a sport well (especially a sport like tennis with huge line movements) but no matter what your handicapping technique it is very important that you somehow accurately estimate your win probability. If a bet has a 63% chance of winning but the line is -200 you can not make that wager. Try to get your plays in early Shari and keep a record of your wager price, the result and the final closing price. If you are consistently beating that closing number you will do well no matter what your technique.

Thank you for this.

I re-started keeping track of my bets diligently about 6 months ago when I began doing this again on a daily basis. Even from that small sample period of time it's very clear to see the correlation between my jumping on a line early when it eventually closes in my favour and the winning ratio on those plays, even after I've filtered out the line movements that were a result of an obvious fix.

The part that's starting to drive me nuts though is that without a measurement of win probability that I feel comfortable with as of yet, I'm definitely not maximising my profits as I should be as I don't have a method to determine when to increase my bet and by how much other than by 'feel' which obviously isn't foolproof at all. Plus I absolutely refuse to lay heavy chalk for the most part and for a lot of rec gamblers this is when they up their bet amounts which for me obviously means nothing.

I think I just need to go back to square one in the Think Tank and reevaluate every suggestion I see in there in order to find one I at least feel partially comfortable trialling again. It's all well and good for me to be beating the closing line and making a profit overall with my bets but knowing that I'm screwing myself out of money is beyond frustrating.

[sharpcat]

First off you need to realize that if a player posts a play that has value he does not mean that that play is going to win, he means that the play has a 55% chance of winning when the line the book is offering only requires a 52.38% chance to win so the bet still only has a 55% chance to win not a 100% chance.

The reason everybody is saying that your yankees +102 play had no value is because the closing line moved so far away from what you claimed as being a sharp play that it was obviously a square play. The closing no-vig price suggested that the yankees only had a 44.63% chance of winning and your bet of +102 needed to win 49.50% just to break even. You paid more than double the juice of what books generally charge on a .20 cent line.

[MonkeyF0cker]

NFL
MLB
NBA
NCAA


anytime you want to have a handicapping challenge let me know...1 month sample...graded and tracked here...1 play a day...loser leaves SBR

until then back to your compd roast beef

Wow. Sounds great. In other words, when I thump you, you just create yet another ghost account.

Yawn.

[Grandmaster B]

First off you need to realize that if a player posts a play that has value he does not mean that that play is going to win, he means that the play has a 55% chance of winning when the line the book is offering only requires a 52.38% chance to win so the bet still only has a 55% chance to win not a 100% chance.

The reason everybody is saying that your yankees +102 play had no value is because the closing line moved so far away from what you claimed as being a sharp play that it was obviously a square play. The closing no-vig price suggested that the yankees only had a 44.63% chance of winning and your bet of +102 needed to win 49.50% just to break even. You paid more than double the juice of what books generally charge on a .20 cent line.

now when you break it down like that yes NYY +102 would have been a bad bet

but there is no juice when you win...

[Nicky Santoro]

My only disagreement here is that knowing stats is very useful if you have them stored in a database and know what stats are important and which ones just look good on paper, without stats we would not be able to know what the value of a half point was.

Other than that you are spot on Nicky

sharpie, it's still useless. the only way it's useful is if your database says TB -140 is a good bet, and line closes at -155. if this happens more often than not, then your database is gold. but if your database says TB -140 is good, and line closes at TB -117, then even though you think your stats help you, they will not.. they will bankrupt you. it's all about beating the #.. a good bet has nothing to do with the result.. it has all to do with the # you get.. if you bet a team at a good # and they lose 19-0, you had a great bet.. don't ever judge by the score.. the score is irrelevant. even though you lose 19-0, at the end, you will end up in the black.

Grandmaster, the more i read your posts about gambling, the more i feel sorry that you are actually a gambler. get out now before it's too late. It's not fair for your family to have you gambling. betting -300 is not like 1/5 in horse racing.. lol

you laugh at me betting -300, yet pinny or betjam or 5 dimes would not take that bet from me if i offered.. how come?? but to you, it was a dumb bet..

i bet if a line was -900/+650 and some book offered you it at -500, you'd not take it, right?? grandmaster, i love you man.. but pls do yourself a favor and quit gambling... nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

[wtf]

omg

monkeyfaggot you dumb little fraud bitch

your lucky to beat your own meat, let alone A HUMAN BEING IN ANY CONTEST

blackie just exposed you for not even able to win 100 out of 200 hundred selections and OTW EXPOSED U FOR CHEATING

now run along and collect your buffet coupons or u will fukin starve to death u clown

[BatemanPatrickl]

I guess doing research like what players are out doesn't mean anything

[Nicky Santoro]

I guess doing research like what players are out doesn't mean anything

that's right patty boy.. UNLESS you get that info before the books find out that player is out.. which is tough to do. reason why it means squat is because it's already applied into the line. if a game is -150 and arod and jeter are out, and you bet it at -150.. it's not a good bet because it'd be -182 with them in the lineup.. -150 is the accurate price.

if you bet +182 on dog because arod and jeter are out and then the line closes at -150, then you have a greaaaaaaaaaaaat bet.. because you got the info before the book.

no matter who's pitching, no matter who you think has value, no matter what you think is a good bet, no matter how good a team is at home, no matter how hot they are.. they are all bad bets... UNLESS.......... you beat the pinny closer. that's all that counts in this game.. if you don't beat the pinny closer, you have a bad bet, no matter how much you know...you'll eventually go broke...

[thechaoz]

great info, thanks Nicky

[Iceman]

baseball is probably the hardest sport to explain line value to others cause they think its okay if I take this play even though I am only getting 8 cents worse, whats 8 cents they think to themselves, etc...

Best example I can give that hit home for me is in hoops. If the closing line hits 50% and it does in all totals and sides over the longterm, then if you are consistenly getting a better number then that you are in very good shape. So if blindly playing all games at the widely avalible closing numbers gets one to 50% then getting that extra point wins you those 5 or so extra games that land on that closing number, the same number that everyone else pushes on. So while they end up winning 50%, you end up winning 4 or 5 more games and end up at 54% and winning 54% in this game can add up very fast.

[statnerds]

said it before, will say it again

Nicky

Iceman

SHARP

and the feline was dropping some very good info as well.

GMB - you should take some pride in starting a thread that turned out this informative.

[statnerds]

Yes that is exactly what I meant.

might i state my amount of gladness that i was thinking along the same lines as you sir?

The final score doesn't dictate if this was a good bet or not, the actual bet at the price you made it at does.

i know Nicky already quoted this line as well, but gosh darn that is samurai sword sharp right there.

and Nicky was right, majority will never get it

or

even consider it as being true.

[Grandmaster B]

said it before, will say it again

Nicky

Iceman

SHARP

and the feline was dropping some very good info as well.

GMB - you should take some pride in starting a thread that turned out this informative.

I bet the NYY AGAIN today 8/24/2010 as their price looked valuable to me since they're always -200 or greater 80% of the time...Im sure I didnt get the best price though compared to the guys who spend 10 hours a day shopping around for a 10 cent difference

I also took the OVER 10...again Im sure I got boned on the price

hopefully I get lucky today and the juice wont matter

[Grandmaster B]

omg

monkeyfaggot you dumb little fraud bitch

your lucky to beat your own meat, let alone A HUMAN BEING IN ANY CONTEST

blackie just exposed you for not even able to win 100 out of 200 hundred selections and OTW EXPOSED U FOR CHEATING

now run along and collect your buffet coupons or u will fukin starve to death u clown

[Grandmaster B]

so I got the NYY at -107 today at Bookmaker and the OVER 10 at -120

can any of the math/value guys in this thread tell me how many cents I got fuked for today?

[Grandmaster B]

where is the math wizard Nicky Santoro?

cmon man tell me how bad of a price I got today




p.s. I understand if you dont want to post in this thread anymore...and you dont want to admit when you win juice dosent matter..its ok

[MonkeyF0cker]

omg

monkeyfaggot you dumb little fraud bitch

your lucky to beat your own meat, let alone A HUMAN BEING IN ANY CONTEST

blackie just exposed you for not even able to win 100 out of 200 hundred selections and OTW EXPOSED U FOR CHEATING

now run along and collect your buffet coupons or u will fukin starve to death u clown

Jesus Christ. You couldn't be any more of a fukking fat, balding, old troll with nothing true or useful to add to ANY conversation.

[MonkeyF0cker]

where is the math wizard Nicky Santoro?

cmon man tell me how bad of a price I got today




p.s. I understand if you dont want to post in this thread anymore...and you dont want to admit when you win juice dosent matter..its ok

Apparently, you're too fukking stupid to comprehend the difference between one game and thousands of games. This has already been explained to you, retard.

[Iceman]

The hardest thing to do before one truly learns to win is admit they are wrong and go from there. Not sure why that is so hard for people but it is. It was a post very close to the ones in this thread that changed my whole life 4 years ago and finallytaught me how to win at this and believe I worked harder and thought I was smarter then 99% of the bettors out there at that time.

This thread is an instant classic. Some of the posts in here pretty much sum up what it takes to be a winning lifetime gambler, that is really all there is to it.

You can take this info and use it to grow and be a better gambler or you can get defensive about things and not take the valuable nuggets of information many have decided to share with you. Betting sports is easy if you quit doing what everybody who is losing is doing and start working on the big picture and do the right things bet after bet.

There are some real pros in this thread sharing what it takes to win with you. Hell I have been winning for 4 years now and I am reading every single word of Nicky's posts slowly and over and over. I have even sent him a few long pm's (which he has so graciously answered) since reading all he has written, just trying to learn anything at all he can share with me to help my game. I am grateful he is even here telling us anything at all as most people that win won't share a lick with others out of fear it will cost them money.

Once again your putting way too much stock into if your bet won or lost and not enough into if it was a good bet because in the long run that is going to make all the difference if your going to win LONG TERM. This is the old give a man a fish theory at it's finest.

[Grandmaster B]

Apparently, you're too fukking stupid to comprehend the difference between one game and thousands of games. This has already been explained to you, retard.

I have other things to do in my life besides spending 23 hours a day shopping for a 14 cent difference in on a sports betting line...I bet you're a coke head

all the more power to those that "claim" to be lifetime winners at gambling...post some pictures of all the things you lifetime winners have bought with all your winnings you have a $1000 bankroll to bet a week yet you're wearing a $10 outfit from wal mart...your car looks like it sold for $250 on craigslist...you wouldnt even spend $2 on a hamburger because you need EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR YOU HAVE TO BET WITH THE NEXT DAY...YOU WOULD RATHER STARVE OR USE A CASINO COMP...A FREE STEAK SANDWICH AND A JUICE AFTER YOU BET $5000...YOU EARNED THAT COMP PAL

now you want me to acknowledge you as a professional gambler? you ******* loser...cheating in a contest is right up your alley...what you and others in this thread dont understand if Ive seen your types before...a pocket full of money one day...broker than a smoker the next...squatting at some elses house..getting happy when you get sent a comp for a free dinner...life time winner eh?...you're all alone like the rest of em...you make love to SBR live lines instead of a women...you have no true friends because the only people you associate with are the same as you

sick ******* gamblers

now go enjoy your 99cent hot dog and beer on special at the local casino



p.s. this rant is directed not just to monkeycheat....it could apply to a variety of people in this thread

[MonkeyF0cker]

I have other things to do in my life besides spending 23 hours a day shopping for a 14 cent difference in on a sports betting line...I bet you're a coke head

all the more power to those that "claim" to be lifetime winners at gambling...post some pictures of all the things you lifetime winners have bought with all your winnings you have a $1000 bankroll to bet a week yet you're wearing a $10 outfit from wal mart...your car looks like it sold for $250 on craigslist...you wouldnt even spend $2 on a hamburger because you need EVERY SINGLE DOLLAR YOU HAVE TO BET WITH THE NEXT DAY...YOU WOULD RATHER STARVE OR USE A CASINO COMP...A FREE STEAK SANDWICH AND A JUICE AFTER YOU BET $5000...YOU EARNED THAT COMP PAL

now you want me to acknowledge you as a professional gambler? you ******* loser...cheating in a contest is right up your alley...what you and others in this thread dont understand if Ive seen your types before...a pocket full of money one day...broker than a smoker the next...squatting at some elses house..getting happy when you get sent a comp for a free dinner...life time winner eh?...you're all alone like the rest of em...you make love to SBR live lines instead of a women...you have no true friends because the only people you associate with are the same as you

sick ******* gamblers

now go enjoy your 99cent hot dog and beer on special at the local casino



p.s. this rant is directed not just to monkeycheat....it could apply to a variety of people in this thread

You couldn't be further off base. Pretty funny though. Not surprising since you can't grasp simple concepts.

Just curious. Why do the idiots who always make these retarded posts (like you and wtf) never show up at the bash? Can't afford airfare? Too much of a shut-in? Afraid you'd have to eat your words? Or just scared that you'd be all alone and made fun of the entire time?

[durito]

I have other things to do in my life besides spending 23 hours a day shopping for a 14 cent difference in on a sports betting line...

I couldn't imagine what.

all the more power to those that "claim" to be lifetime winners at gambling...post some pictures of all the things you lifetime winners have bought with all your winnings you have a $1000 bankroll to bet a week yet you're wearing a $10 outfit from wal mart...

Are you suggesting that $1,000 bankroll is a lot? You might want to add some zeroes (and more of them than you think).

What exactly did you want a picture of? My car? Apartment? Girlfriend? Computers?

[wtf]

You couldn't be further off base. Pretty funny though. Not surprising since you can't grasp simple concepts.

Just curious. Why do the idiots who always make these retarded posts (like you and wtf) never show up at the bash? Can't afford airfare? Too much of a shut-in? Afraid you'd have to eat your words? Or just scared that you'd be all alone and made fun of the entire time?

showing up in boring las vegas is a sign of wealth? give me a break, macau, where i live 50 minutes away from is where the REAL GAMBLERS ARE, so keep betting your peanuts you peasant and getting those buffet tickees given away on the strip so you can sustain your pitiful exisistence

only reason you even go to the bash is cause u can walk there from the free government provided housing to you

you could not even go 50% in a free roll contest, CONFIRMED BY BLACKIE WHO CALLED YOU A HOMO !!!!!!

PLUS YOU CHEATED , omg , u r so fukin gay, blackie was right about u

keep hoping i am fat and bald, keep up the dream