This Thread Is For Guys That Preach VALUE

[Grandmaster B]

NYY +102

Nicky says "never bet the NYY" because there is no VALUE

I see value today

[jjgold]

Jeter, A-Rod out

Still not a bad bet though

[Grandmaster B]

Jeter, A-Rod out

Still not a bad bet though

Cano had 6 RBI's yesterday in A-Rods spot

Jeter played yesterday and he is not listed on espn.com as being out

A-Rod is out confirmed

where do you get your information coach?...you have a special service??

[Iceman]

+102 on the Yankees is a god awful bet but +120 on the Yankees is a different story and maybe where we can START to talk about playing the Yankees.

Where in the world you getting Yanks +102

[Grandmaster B]

+102 on the Yankees is a god awful bet but +120 on the Yankees is a different story and maybe where we can START to talk about playing the Yankees.

Where in the world you getting Yanks +102

are you really here talking to me about 18 fuking cents....thats like 3 SBR points

they give you 6 a night for free ...double that if you let them tie into your sportsbook accts

+ money on the NYY is a rarity IMO so taking them at ANY type of + money is FAR from a "God awful bet"

[Grandmaster B]

this is turning out to be a good game...

[Brock Landers]

morrow is a CY Young winner in the making. Guy has incredible stuff

[Grandmaster B]

morrow is a CY Young winner in the making. Guy has incredible stuff

jjgold was right about Jeter being out

guy is sharp as a tack




p.s. what about this kid for the NYY going toe to toe with your CY Young winner?

[Grandmaster B]

well the NYY got beat by one guy named Bautista today...one man beat a entire team

WOW

[statnerds]

are you really here talking to me about 18 fuking cents....thats like 3 SBR points

they give you 6 a night for free ...double that if you let them tie into your sportsbook accts

+ money on the NYY is a rarity IMO so taking them at ANY type of + money is FAR from a "God awful bet"

wow, i half hoped you were joking, but since you did play it at +102 i guess you are not joking.

i am torn between snide insults (think durito or thremp), and trying to take the time to honestly explain getting the best number in a humble, non-judgmental fashion. i'll go with a small portion of the latter and just simply suggest you take a calculator and figure the difference nickel, dime and 20 cent lines over the course of 100, 500 and 1,000 plays. imperative you have multiple outs and shop for the best number possible.

don't confuse Iceman saying it is a godawful bet not because he doesn't like the NYY side, but because there were a fukton better prices than +103.

it will kill you long term

[Iceman]

Yes that is exactly what I meant.

You have to get out of your mind looking at things as one bet and look at it as 1,000 bets because in time it will be and taking 18 cents to the worst of it will put you in the poorhouse. 18 cents is a huge, its equal to a point in hoops and see what your record is betting hoop games taking a point worse every game.

EVERY GAME has two sides. Can't argue either side at the right price. A great bet here would have bet Toronto -115 or lower (which not too brag but I had them at -112) or NYY +125 or higher and preferably +130 or so and no lower. In fact show me NYY +130 and I would have bet that also.

The final score doesn't dictate if this was a good bet or not, the actual bet at the price you made it at does.

[Waz]

morrow is a CY Young winner in the making. Guy has incredible stuff

Totally agree with you Brock.....Morrow has some nasty stuff and has the ability to throw a no-hitter any time he goes out there.

[MonkeyF0cker]

are you really here talking to me about 18 fuking cents....thats like 3 SBR points

So you bet $1 on it? Not surprising.

[Waz]

Yes that is exactly what I meant.

You have to get out of your mind looking at things as one bet and look at it as 1,000 bets because in time it will be and taking 18 cents to the worst of it will put you in the poorhouse. 18 cents is a huge, its equal to a point in hoops and see what your record is betting hoop games taking a point worse every game.

EVERY GAME has two sides. Can't argue either side at the right price. A great bet here would have bet Toronto -115 or lower (which not too brag but I had them at -112) or NYY +125 or higher and preferably +130 or so and no lower. In fact show me NYY +130 and I would have bet that also.

The final score doesn't dictate if this was a good bet or not, the actual bet at the price you made it at does.

Listen to this guy....he knows what he's talking about. 18 cents is HUGE - you're talking about almost an 18% better return on your investment between +102 and +120. Prices are far more important than what you personally think about a game, ESPECIALLY in baseball.

[sharpcat]

It is amazing how the term VALUE has 2 completely different meanings depending on what forum you are in.

In the think tank it means that you are making a play that has a higher probability of winning than the odds are suggesting and the player knows mathematically a very close approximation of how much of an advantage he has.

In players talk it means "I think the yankees will win".

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky says "never bet the NYY" because there is no VALUE

i never said don't ever bet NYY.. i said if you are going to bet them, make sure you get a very good price on them..

[Nicky Santoro]

The final score doesn't dictate if this was a good bet or not, the actual bet at the price you made it at does.

the majority here won't understand this. people will still handicap a game based on who is better. gambling has NOTHING to do with who's the better team or pitcher. it's all about getting the best #..

by someone handicapping a team or pitcher, they will lose. gambling is all a #'s game. you should not handicap the game....ever.. you should handicap the line..

when 2 teams play, i make my bet without even knowing anything about the teams or who is hot or who is pitching. i never even know who's pitching.

half the time i never heard of the guy.. i bet games based on the #.. if a line is not good, i lay off.
handicap the line.. not the teams. the teams mean nothing.. it's all about the line you get.. i let the books pick my games. if they are too high on fav, i am on the dog. and vice versa.

i have NOT handicapped a game in 20 yrs.. handicapping is a waste of time.. that's why a line is there.. every stat people think they know is already applied into the line..

SBR posters will never learn. they will continue to cap games and bet em no matter what the price is..

[DrStale]

i never said don't ever bet NYY.. i said if you are going to bet them, make sure you get a very good price on them..

Well the title of the thread was "Never ever ever ever....... bet the Yankees................" so I can see how one would think that.


Somebody set a line on Grandmaster returning to post in this thread, I wanna see if there's value in it.

[wtf]

the majority here won't understand this. people will still handicap a game based on who is better. gambling has NOTHING to do with who's the better team or pitcher. it's all about getting the best #..

by someone handicapping a team or pitcher, they will lose. gambling is all a #'s game. you should not handicap the game....ever.. you should handicap the line..

when 2 teams play, i make my bet without even knowing anything about the teams or who is hot or who is pitching. i never even know who's pitching.

half the time i never heard of the guy.. i bet games based on the #.. if a line is not good, i lay off.
handicap the line.. not the teams. the teams mean nothing.. it's all about the line you get.. i let the books pick my games. if they are too high on fav, i am on the dog. and vice versa.

i have NOT handicapped a game in 20 yrs.. handicapping is a waste of time.. that's why a line is there.. every stat people think they know is already applied into the line..

SBR posters will never learn. they will continue to cap games and bet em no matter what the price is..

nicky, I only bet on horses and I subscribe to your best value thoughts, BUT, this is based on the horses past performance and its spot in todays race.

HOW can you apply this to sports betting? if you did not cap the games how do you know if there is value or not irrespective of the line

[Iceman]

Right on Nicky. The best season I have ever had doing this was when I couldn't name a single player in cbb basketball that year, okay maybe 5 players but no more. People laugh at that but its the god's honest truth. It's just names on a page to me and most of the time they mean nothing to me at all. They could say team shithead is -4 over the ass clowns and after doing what I do and checking the things I need to check, I will make my play.

Now I have added some things into what I do that lets me bet on openers in some sports but all with the sole intention of me beating the closing line. If I didn't or couldn't do this consistently then I would eliminate it from what I am doing completely. Basically I am trying to pick off the "mistakes" that are out there before the other players get too them.

Nicky,

How many books do you play at during one time, like right now in August? For the volume you are describing, plus you mention only playing game sides and totals usually and no smaller stuff like 1st and 2nd halfs I think, I have too imagine it is a whole lot, lots of locals also?

[Grandmaster B]

Well the title of the thread was "Never ever ever ever....... bet the Yankees................" so I can see how one would think that.


Somebody set a line on Grandmaster returning to post in this thread, I wanna see if there's value in it.

ya...keep taking shots at -300 like nicky does and see where that gets ya "long term"

I took a shot at +102 and regardless if I got pinched for 18 cents to me that means nothing to me...I gambled on the NYY and I lost...end of story...bet your ass you wouldnt catch me laying money down on a -300 game...EVER

all these math guys were bald at 22 years old and spend their days searching for a comp'd $1.99 ham and eggs (like monekyfocker ) because mathematically it put them 8 cents above their bottom line for the day...that should tell you something

[Ace_of_Spades]

That was a trap bet, and you got sucked IN!

[shari91]

It is amazing how the term VALUE has 2 completely different meanings depending on what forum you are in. In the think tank it means that you are making a play that has a higher probability of winning than the odds are suggesting and the player knows mathematically a very close approximation of how much of an advantage he has. In players talk it means "I think the yankees will win".

Completely about tennis as that comprises 99% of my bets: I can look at an opening line and immediately see where the value exists, if any, just from a quick glance. My problem is sometimes determining the exact % to assign to that value. I've tried so many damn formulas and for some reason I've still never found one that I feel comfortable with as I inherently feel they're off somehow - either assigning a higher or lower value than I think is appropriate.

I honestly don't understand how I'd do this though with no knowledge of the players involved in the match as there are too many variables involved. Maybe Nicky's hypothesis only works with MLB??

[Grandmaster B]

That was a trap bet, and you got sucked IN!

I dont feel bad though because they werent -300...when you are -300 you are EXPECTED to win

but ya anytime I see the NYY at + money its worth a shot IMO

[sharpcat]

Completely about tennis as that comprises 99% of my bets: I can look at an opening line and immediately see where the value exists, if any, just from a quick glance. My problem is sometimes determining the exact % to assign to that value. I've tried so many damn formulas and for some reason I've still never found one that I feel comfortable with as I inherently feel they're off somehow - either assigning a higher or lower value than I think is appropriate.

I honestly don't understand how I'd do this though with no knowledge of the players involved in the match as there are too many variables involved. Maybe Nicky's hypothesis only works with MLB??

It is not easy finding how to calculate your winning probability per side.

The most difficult part about it is having enough data to backtest your accuracy which is a full time job that most do not have the time for.

As a recreational player I think it is ok to know a sport well (especially a sport like tennis with huge line movements) but no matter what your handicapping technique it is very important that you somehow accurately estimate your win probability. If a bet has a 63% chance of winning but the line is -200 you can not make that wager.

Try to get your plays in early Shari and keep a record of your wager price, the result and the final closing price. If you are consistently beating that closing number you will do well no matter what your technique.

[Nicky Santoro]

ya...keep taking shots at -300 like nicky does and see where that gets ya "long term"

grandmaster, it's very obvious you don't know squat about gambling. If pinny has -345/+315 on a game and i can get -300 each time.. i'd bet it 1,000 times each day, and would be wealthier than Donald Trump.. ask pinny if they'd give me -300 on those games and you'll see their answer and then you'll see just how much of a square you are.. i'll lay 400/1 odds that they would never take that bet.. grandmaster, i'd quit gambling if i were you.. quit before you go broke because you suck at this game and you are clueless

icer,

i only play at 6 books offshore and 2 locals for baseball. its all i need.

icer, i swear to GOD, i can't name you 1 player in NCAAB, not 1 player in NCAAF, and they are by far my best sports. icer, knowing stats and players, etc.. will NOT help you one bit to beat this game. this whole game is all about getting the best #. that's it..

WTF,

just try to beat pinny. this is the easiest way to start.. you can't go wrong doing this.

[Grandmaster B]

grandmaster, it's very obvious you don't know squat about gambling. If pinny has -345/+315 on a game and i can get -300 each time.. i'd bet it 1,000 times each day, and would be wealthier than Donald Trump.. ask pinny if they'd give me -300 on those games and you'll see their answer and then you'll see just how much of a square you are.. i'll lay 400/1 odds that they would never take that bet.. grandmaster, i'd quit gambling if i were you.. quit before you go broke because you suck at this game and you are clueless

icer,

i only play at 6 books offshore and 2 locals for baseball. its all i need.

icer, i swear to GOD, i can't name you 1 player in NCAAB, not 1 player in NCAAF, and they are by far my best sports. icer, knowing stats and players, etc.. will NOT help you one bit to beat this game. this whole game is all about beating the best #.

WTF,

just try to beat pinny. this is the easiest way to start.. you can't go wrong doing this.

I stopped reading right there...Ive seen lots of guys like you betting 1-5 and 2-5 at the race track lose their ass for YEARS

they are all bald...and they went bald from the stress 'trying to beat the number' in their early 20's

have you lost your hair nicky?...monkey uses rogaine

[sharpcat]

grandmaster, it's very obvious you don't know squat about gambling. If pinny has -345/+315 on a game and i can get -300 each time.. i'd bet it 1,000 times each day, and would be wealthier than Donald Trump.. ask pinny if they'd give me -300 on those games and you'll see their answer and then you'll see just how much of a square you are.. i'll lay 400/1 odds that they would never take that bet.. grandmaster, i'd quit gambling if i were you.. quit before you go broke because you suck at this game and you are clueless

icer,

i only play at 6 books offshore and 2 locals for baseball. its all i need.

icer, i swear to GOD, i can't name you 1 player in NCAAB, not 1 player in NCAAF, and they are by far my best sports. icer, knowing stats and players, etc.. will NOT help you one bit to beat this game. this whole game is all about getting the best #. that's it..

WTF,

just try to beat pinny. this is the easiest way to start.. you can't go wrong doing this.

My only disagreement here is that knowing stats is very useful if you have them stored in a database and know what stats are important and which ones just look good on paper, without stats we would not be able to know what the value of a half point was.

Other than that you are spot on Nicky

[sharpcat]

I stopped reading right there...Ive seen lots of guys like you betting 1-5 and 2-5 at the race track lose their ass for YEARS

they are all bald...and they went bald from the stress 'trying to beat the number' in their early 20's

have you lost your hair nicky?...monkey uses rogaine

Actually you would find that sharp players usually find more VALUE (if you knew what this meant) betting dogs and you will pretty much never see a sharp player betting a horse at less than 2-1 odds.

[Grandmaster B]

Actually you would find that sharp players usually find more VALUE (if you knew what this meant) betting dogs and you will pretty much never see a sharp player betting a horse at less than 2-1 odds.

I understand where you're coming from...I really do

beat the closing number more times than not and long term you will do good

my argument is those "long term" guys end up bald by 25 and jumping off a bridge by 50

they just cant accept the FACT that gambling is all about luck...it eats them alive...these "long term" guys are struggling to get a food comp at a indian casino

not everyone can be Phil Ivey...sorry

[MonkeyF0cker]

I stopped reading right there...Ive seen lots of guys like you betting 1-5 and 2-5 at the race track lose their ass for YEARS

they are all bald...and they went bald from the stress 'trying to beat the number' in their early 20's

have you lost your hair nicky?...monkey uses rogaine

Aren't you bald, fatty? Or do you just wear stocking caps because you can't pay your water bill and take a shower?

P.S. - Sports markets are a little different than parimutuel horse pools.

P.P.S. - This thread is very humorous. I love to laugh at people. Thank you.

[sharpcat]

Actually anybody can be Phil Ivey if they knew the true value of their hand had a 50% chance of winning and their opponent bet a third of the pot giving them 4-1 odds on what should be an even money bet.

[Grandmaster B]

Aren't you bald, fatty? Or do you just wear stocking caps because you can't pay your water bill and take a shower?

P.S. - Sports markets are a little different than parimutuel horse pools.

P.P.S. - This thread is very humorous. I love to laugh at people. Thank you.

go get your compd grilled cheese dinner or your SBR pizza and call it a night..you havent posted a winner on any forum regardless if it was horses or sports in the last 5 years from what Ive seen...scurry along

Actually anybody can be Phil Ivey if they knew the true value of their hand had a 50% chance of winning and their opponent bet a third of the pot giving them 4-1 odds on what should be an even money bet.

[Ace_of_Spades]

icer, knowing stats and players, etc.. will NOT help you one bit to beat this game. this whole game is all about getting the best #. that's it..

I agree, people and stats. Unfreakin believable how much cut and paste i see posted.

[MonkeyF0cker]

go get your compd grilled cheese dinner or your SBR pizza and call it a night..you havent posted a winner on any forum regardless if it was horses or sports in the last 5 years from what Ive seen...scurry along

You're as blind as you are retarded.