2 years doing this professionally...#1 thing I have learned for aspiring "pro's"

[curious]

Ok so since Durito, Nikky, and yourself have claimed all that matters is beating the closing #, not really worrying about handicapping the games to find winners then let me ask you this:

I have a local that will give me -105 on any total or spread (football and hoops). He will also sell me any half point for 10 cents regardless of line (so I can buy 2 points for 40 cents in hoops, or buy down from -3 to -2.5 in football for 10 cents).

If all I do is look at Pinny's lines and bet the games with the highest juice (with the same spread but at -105) and buy points whenever it increases my edge (from -3.5 to -2.5 at -125, etc). Would I make money without any "handicapping"?

The key word here is "claimed". I don't believe this nonsense about beating the closing line being a guarantee of long term winning. If your pick doesn't win it doesn't matter what line you received. Now, if the loud mouth Durito actually posted his plays day in and day out for a few seasons I might change my mind. But, he doesn't.

Here is why I don't believe this "beat the closing line" argument. In order to do that you would have to be able to predict the line movements. I don't believe that is possible and Durito never gives any evidence that it is possible or explains how one would go about predicting the line movements. He just claims to do that.

[lyon804]

not only can you make money like this,but you can retire.. and the more games and volume you bet, the more you will make.. but this won't work cause once you beat your bookies brains in, which you will, he will cut you off.. so this can last 4 weeks. no one is that dumb... just take all the -5.5 -115, -3.5 -120 in nba, NBA un 186.5 -120, etc.. but once again, i doubt he is that stupid..

So Nicky in your example bolded above if you can get the same exact numbers at -105 instead of the market price in your numbers you will be a success? What about betting at -110 or even -107 when other markets such as the greek, or pinny or at -115-120? Is this how you do it? I have read many of your post and seen you talking about scalps and middles? in other words you basically are not handicapping, is that a fair assumption?

[Nicky Santoro]

[/B]



So Nicky in your example bolded above if you can get the same exact numbers at -105 instead of the market price in your numbers you will be a success? What about betting at -110 or even -107 when other markets such as the greek, or pinny or at -115-120? Is this how you do it? I have read many of your post and seen you talking about scalps and middles? in other words you basically are not handicapping, is that a fair assumption?

lion,

i swear to you that i haven't handicappped a game and bet on it in 23+ yrs. it's useless. When i did this, i went broke 25 times over...Just pick on bad #'s and you can eliminate all the capping and be more successful. People make me laugh here that say, i love the bears, or i love niners + 9 and the line closes at +10.5.... lol.. yeah right, like they really know.. some think they are 3 steps ahead of the linesmakers. lol

i handicap lines, not the teams. 97% of my bets, i don't even know who's pitching, i don't know who is QB, i don't even know 1 player in NCAAB and NCAAF.. all the info is useless. you just need to look at the lines, not the teams.. the teams and players mean squat.. what you know is already applied into the line. people don't seem to grasp at this.. The only way your handicapping is useful is if your info is consistently beating the closer. it does you harm when you love dodgers at -135 and you bet it and it closes at -123..


as for the greek.. if greek has -6 -110 and pinny has -6 -117/+6 +107, i'd bet the -6 -110 at OLY as you'd have a +ev bet..

[Iceman]

Realize one thing (and this was going to be my so called #2 thing I have learned) to all that are thinking about doing this. It will take THOUSANDS of bets to see your edge at this also. Which means if you do have the discipline to follow these methods there is still a high possibility you will start out 200-200 and be down 20 units or so.

If this happens I can promise you 90% of the people will quit and not believe in this. I have noticed it take usually close to 2,000 bets for me to start to "become a winner" following this practice. Don't expect some instant success. When one wins 54% of their plays (and that shouls be the goal long term) they go through many rough patches. There is no guarantees but you will be playing with an edge for sure. So bet small to your bankroll size still.

My advice to most is to find a local and I can almost guarantee you will bury him doing this over time. I wished I had a local still.

[lyon804]

lion,

i swear to you that i haven't handicappped a game and bet on it in 23+ yrs. it's useless. When i did this, i went broke 25 times over...Just pick on bad #'s and you can eliminate all the capping and be more successful. People make me laugh here that say, i love the bears, or i love niners + 9 and the line closes at +10.5.... lol.. yeah right, like they really know.. some think they are 3 steps ahead of the linesmakers. lol

i handicap lines, not the teams. 97% of my bets, i don't even know who's pitching, i don't know who is QB, i don't even know 1 player in NCAAB and NCAAF.. all the info is useless. you just need to look at the lines, not the teams.. the teams and players mean squat.. what you know is already applied into the line. people don't seem to grasp at this.. The only way your handicapping is useful is if your info is consistently beating the closer. it does you harm when you love dodgers at -135 and you bet it and it closes at -123..


as for the greek.. if greek has -6 -110 and pinny has -6 -117/+6 +107, i'd bet the -6 -110 at OLY as you'd have a +ev bet..

Thanks for responding with some informative stuff. I like watching lines, but I have not become a master of beating the closer. In NBA I was getting a good feel for the Pinny lean and betting it elsewere. Example Chicago -4 -113 +103 and taking Chicago -4 -110 if in fact that was the side I already was in agreement with. It produces far less plays but the percentages was strong especially in releation to my opinion.


As for being a 3 steps ahead of the linesmakers..LOL I feel you because I have now created a DB for NBA and I am back testing a running simulations for 15+ yrs and let me tell you... The linesmakers are sharp. We all knew that anyways, but when you look at the raw numbers it's mind boggling how close they are in the NBA. In the grand sceme of things if I go with my simulations and open it up to just a 2% edge and bet the closer I can show you with a -110 vig on the closer I am breakeven in over 10,000 simulations.


The second paragraph I just wrote gave credence to what you are saying. "The only real way to win in the long run over large numbers is to beat closers" And that is easier to say than do. It's an art form to do so, but if you have an applied edge in your models than often times you can predict the line movement. Not always, but more times than not looking back at my models you could have.


Just goes back to another idea.. You need to have several books and options to bet to help you beat the market.


Thanks again for sharing your insight.

[lyon804]

Realize one thing (and this was going to be my so called #2 thing I have learned) to all that are thinking about doing this. It will take THOUSANDS of bets to see your edge at this also. Which means if you do have the discipline to follow these methods there is still a high possibility you will start out 200-200 and be down 20 units or so.

If this happens I can promise you 90% of the people will quit and not believe in this. I have noticed it take usually close to 2,000 bets for me to start to "become a winner" following this practice. Don't expect some instant success. When one wins 54% of their plays (and that shouls be the goal long term) they go through many rough patches. There is no guarantees but you will be playing with an edge for sure. So bet small to your bankroll size still.

My advice to most is to find a local and I can almost guarantee you will bury him doing this over time. I wished I had a local still.

Better know as binomial distribution or variance. Yeah, I was speaking about this with my father last nite and it doesn't work the way you would like for it to. If you are 54% you rarely will have a run were you go 54-46 over a 100 plays or even anything close. Unfortunately, most don't have the stomach or fortitude as you were saying to stick it out because it can be very volatile in the short run. It's no different in a true baseball players offensive numbers. Many like Mark Teixera start the year awful in April and you wonder if he is ever going to hit, but in the end he always gets his numbers.

[chachi]

Realize one thing (and this was going to be my so called #2 thing I have learned) to all that are thinking about doing this. It will take THOUSANDS of bets to see your edge at this also. Which means if you do have the discipline to follow these methods there is still a high possibility you will start out 200-200 and be down 20 units or so.

If this happens I can promise you 90% of the people will quit and not believe in this. I have noticed it take usually close to 2,000 bets for me to start to "become a winner" following this practice. Don't expect some instant success. When one wins 54% of their plays (and that shouls be the goal long term) they go through many rough patches. There is no guarantees but you will be playing with an edge for sure. So bet small to your bankroll size still.

And also get yourself a tshirt with "VARIANCE IS A BITCH" in big bold 75pt font and have it to hand when the tough times set in, as they will ...

You need two things to see this through, sufficient bankroll with strict money management, and the cajones to stick to your methodology when either things get rough or you want to bet larger for whatever reason ...

[durito]

as for the greek.. if greek has -6 -110 and pinny has -6 -117/+6 +107, i'd bet the -6 -110 at OLY as you'd have a +ev bet..

Not likely. Pinny isn't god.

[Fishhead]

Ice, I'm in Summerlin..........call me.

[Cheme82]

Not likely. Pinny isn't god.

So who is?

[Cheme82]

Something like that. Buying points on/off the NFL 3 for that price is a gold mine in itself. Basically what you want to do is find bets that you could scalp at Pinny, then, don't scalp, just bet the weak side with your local. In the long run you'll do well. Good luck.

Thanks for the help, that's what I was planning on doing. Basically anything at -115 or higher at Pinny pretty much guarantees an edge if bet at -105.

not only can you make money like this,but you can retire.. and the more games and volume you bet, the more you will make.. but this won't work cause once you beat your bookies brains in, which you will, he will cut you off.. so this can last 4 weeks. no one is that dumb... just take all the -5.5 -115, -3.5 -120 in nba, NBA un 186.5 -120, etc.. but once again, i doubt he is that stupid..

I don't plan on going crazy on it, but to do it slowly until I can't do it anymore.

[sharpcat]

How to start a thread that lasts 3 pages and gets over 1,000 views in 2 days...........

Just add a few key words and phrases to the thread title such as: "professional" "handicapper" "how to get rich" "how to become a pro" "easy money"

[Dr.Gonzo]

How to start a thread that lasts 3 pages and gets over 1,000 views in 2 days...........

Just add a few key words and phrases to the thread title such as: "professional" "handicapper" "how to get rich" "how to become a pro" "easy money"

Ice has poured cold water (pun'd ) on a lot of people's hopes of betting for a living with his 2 million turnover figure. I don't think he is offering easy money.

[Nicky Santoro]

Not likely. Pinny isn't god.

i know they're not GOD, and i know matchy is sharper.. but they are a good place to start comparing lines with.. you will not lose if you beat pinny's closers on a regular basis.. plus, it's much easier to compare closers vs pinny rather than matchy, as matchy's closers are never accurate as they change every 3.4 seconds, when someone makes an offer

at matchy if joe blow makes a ridiculous offer at 704 pm and 56 seconds because he wants action on the game, that will be the closer.. which is not accurate. but pinny's is..

[Dr.Gonzo]

So who is?

The market is god. Pinny is just a player, admittedly a big one.

I've seen Pinny throw up retarded lines on some markets with a max bet of 2-4k. There are a few sports where I have no respect for their lines. Obviously they aint US sports.

[Cheme82]

But for NFL, CFB, NBA, and CBB they are usually right on?

[jolmscheid]

Hey guys...again thanks for all the input...NOW Nicky, Durito, and Iceman...do you guys use this for NO MATTER what the odds are? LIke if a moneyline play at Pinny is -350 and a different book has it at -310 would you still bet the -310 even tough the juice is huge? Or do you still bet it no matter what the odds are if you show a 7+ cent edge at your book compared to Pinny??

Thanks guys! This would help out a lot...to know what the cutoffs are for juice / underdogs or if there even is a cutoff??

[Nicky Santoro]

if a moneyline play at Pinny is -350 and a different book has it at -310 would you still bet the -310 even tough the juice is huge?

i don't know about the others here, but i would bang it out.. i am a gambling whore. anything off, i jump on it.. if pinny is -350/+310 and a book has -310, you can be sure as hell i am on the game.. if a book has +350 and pinny is -350/+310, i am all over the dog at +350.. if a ML is -1200/+900 and i find a -900, i am all over it.. i am all about value..

anything off, i am on it.. On an NCAAF/NBA/NHL saturday, i swear i can end up with 94 bets.. i am an action whore..

[Mike9999]

When attempting to find value are you calculating the current no vig line and trying to find a better price, or are you estimating the closing no vig line and trying to beat that number?

[jolmscheid]

Thanks again guys for all the input...keep things rolling...I always want to know what will help LONGTERM...