I hate when line movement tricks me into thinking im on the 'right side'

[donjuan]

5 Star,

Not a surprise coming from Donjuan, the same guy that laughed at me for saying the Red Sox were the best team in baseball and still are. HAHAHAHA, hey Donjuan im still waiting for you to break down the yanks/red sox pitching staffs buddy. Go get your Pecota and break down the #'s. See how far it gets you buddy. You didnt make much sense in the baseball predicition thread just like in this thread your not making a whole lot of sense... put down the crack pipe bro

Why would I use PECOTA for evaluating who was the best team in baseball last year? Please at least confine your garbage to the thread it belongs in.

Patrick,

Draw your own conclusions from there but you are not going to win every +EV event you bet money on.

Exactly.

[donjuan]

What does that have to do with anything man? Both teams would have to play under the "different conditions" What are you trying to say? Weather or what? You make ZERO sense man. Texas whooped their ass last night man just get over it and stop making yourself sound like a fool all the time

I'm not talking about the weather. Take a look at how lines vary from game to game between the same teams in the NBA Playoffs.

[durito]

the fact is, not many asu players would start for texas, and that showed in last nights matchup.

wouldn't that have been true before last night?

for the record, i didn't bet this game, i didn't watch it, and I don't have any opinion on who the right side was.

as for durito, the nba regular season is a bit different than a bowl game. also, in a game that matters, the suns would beat the clip at least 8 of 10, imo. i cashed the suns -8, that was a nice gift.

I'm not sure what a game that matters means, but the suns money line is -1500 tonight and was over -400 last night, so surely they would in fact win 8 out of 10. I'm not sure what that has to do with setting the point spread or my question.

[trixtrix]

it's important to realize that ganch's post addresses the 2nd half of the thread's argument, which is what is more efficient in deducing "true" fair odds: the "realized" historical line or the "implied" market line, which has been argued back-and-forth through out economics..

as for the 1st part of the argument, as far as i'm concerned there is no argument. market movement ABSOLUTELY indicates the "right" side. to prove this one must take a risk management approach, work backwards from a risk neutral portfolio to identify arbitrage.

to illstrate this we can use a simple example: let's say you took team A in nfl at pickem, the line moved to team A -3, do you have the "correct" side? the answer is yes REGARDLESS of the outcome of the ball game, this is something most of the squares don't understand. from a risk management perspective the end result have no bearing on whether you "gained" or "lost" via line movement.

here is why: team A pickem have a corresponding ml of -105, team A -3 have a corresponding ml of -150. therefore by taking a riskless neutral position you can simply "arb" back by buying team B ml at +140, therefore guaranteeing risk free money irregardless of the outcome. you expand on that for all type of spread movements, and this theory holds whether the movement allows you to arb and/or middle against the close..

[Thremp]

trixtrix,

Not to mention there substantial hoards of data that corroborate with the theory. So its solid from all angles. But whatever. Who cares. Its all about the winners.

[donjuan]

Ganchrow,

From mofome's frequentist perspective, however, there's no differentiation between prior and posterior probabilities. The probability of an event is simply defined as the hypothetical relative frequency of the event occurring were it to be repeated an arbitrarily large number of times and (at least in theory) there's absolutely nothing subjective about it.

What I take issue with is that rather than repeating the event a large number of times, he is using a sample size of one.

[mofome]

wouldn't that have been true before last night?

for the record, i didn't bet this game, i didn't watch it, and I don't have any opinion on who the right side was.



I'm not sure what a game that matters means, but the suns money line is -1500 tonight and was over -400 last night, so surely they would in fact win 8 out of 10. I'm not sure what that has to do with setting the point spread or my question.

yeah, of course that would have applied last night, i just dont like the favs as much before new years. sometimes motivation plays a factor in these things. i was wrong about this game, texas was much better and if the line was set at -2.5 again, i think don and thremp would play texas if they wanted to win money. to each their own. i understand what line movement is and what it means, but it doesnt always dictate whether or not you're on the right side. texas was the right side, and they happened to be the side that cashed. even if asu had recovered 12 onside kicks and won, texas still would have been the 'right side', i dont suggest anything based merely on the scoreboard.

[donjuan]

but it doesnt always dictate whether or not you're on the right side. to each their own.

No. Not to each their own. Please read trixtrix's post above for why rather than spouting off on something you have no clue on.

[mofome]

No. Not to each their own. Please read trixtrix's post above for why rather than spouting off on something you have no clue on.

i have a clue, i win more than i lose. i'll stick to you. i read his post and it was great, but the fact of the matter is, you wouldnt bet on asu +2.5 next week if you wanted to win. asu was not the right side. line movement doesnt mean, 100% of the time, that you are on the right side. i know what i think, i know that you think, im good with it.

[Thremp]

i have a clue, i win more than i lose. i'll stick to you. i read his post and it was great, but the fact of the matter is, you wouldnt bet on asu +2.5 next week if you wanted to win. asu was not the right side. line movement doesnt mean, 100% of the time, that you are on the right side. i know what i think, i know that you think, im good with it.

This is true. But we can use line movement in probably >95% of circumstances. And the 5% is probably overstated and limited to small fairly widely known off markets.

[mofome]

This is true. But we can use line movement in probably >95% of circumstances. And the 5% is probably overstated and limited to small fairly widely known off markets.

that i can believe. i felt much more confident with my play last night after the line movement than i did before it. i even put a bit more on it after i saw the line begin to move and i made a thread here talking about the late movement. i understand that it matters, i also understand that i have a ton to learn and i look forward to it. im 27, when i 28 i hope to know more than i do now, when im 29 i hope to know even more. im here to share info, gain info, enjoy time, and try to get better. you seem to know a lot, for that matter don seems like a very educated capper as well, im sure i'll pull a of knowledge from the two of you, but this thread becomes a waste when it loses respect for one anothers ideas/thoughts. i'll be fine, you'll be fine, and don will be fine regardless of whats discussed b/w each other here, but if your goal is really to help people out...lose the edge from time to time. you seem arrogant and thats fine, but its harder to pull something from someone that comes off as confrontational most of the time. i realize that my opinions dont matter to you, but they do to me. so, if you want to explain something i'll read it all; if you want to be an ass...why waste my time or yours. im here to enjoy some time. i hope you win all your plays regardless of how any thread reads.



gl

[Thremp]

mofome,

I appreciate the lack of emoticons there. I think the main point of this thread is that line movement basically determines what the correct side is in efficient or even loosely efficient markets. You took a weird stance and asserted it was correct when it blatantly wasn't.

GL

[mofome]

mofome,

I appreciate the lack of emoticons there. I think the main point of this thread is that line movement basically determines what the correct side is in efficient or even loosely efficient markets. You took a weird stance and asserted it was correct when it blatantly wasn't.

GL

prior to the game i was excited about the movement because i felt it indicated that i was on the right side. when i watched the game, i felt differently. i dont think that the scoreboard tells the whole story of any game, but if i watch a game and know that i would be on the other side if the two teams met again, then to me, i was on the wrong side. shtt man, i understand your point and ive always thought that line movement was important, but maybe it means even more than ive been led to believe. i wanted to have some pride in getting asu at 2.5, but i felt like i really fkked up capping this game while i was watching it. sometimes i watch a loss and feel ok with it, this just wasnt one of those times. anyway, thanks for the time explaining some things. even in your more brash replies i picked some stuff up.

bol

[donjuan]

Mofome,

I appreciate those last couple posts and will do my best to post replies to you in particular with more respect.

[mofome]

Mofome,

I appreciate those last couple posts and will do my best to post replies to you in particular with more respect.

thanks don, i'll do the same. sometimes i dont have as much respect for those that i argue with because they just have no substance, you never lacked substance, but i can be defensive when i feel that someone is coming at me just to put my thoughts down. i dont think that was necessarily your intent, but im relatively new here and thats how it came off to me. i spoke with someone here today about how much knowledge ive seen here that i was never exposed to while at eog or therx, not that those places dont have great minds, but some of the stuff here was stuff i was reading for the very first time. i'll take my notes, try to improve, try to share what i can, and always try be better tomorrow than i am today. sports has always been my thing, the handicapping aspect of it is what id like to expand on. we're all here to win/help/enjoy.

bol to you don.

i'll leaves smileys out of my relies to you and remp, as i can see you two dont care for them. im not the most mature person in the world and i like'em. it takes all kinds.

have a great new years, i really look forward to seeing what you gents bring in baseball.

[MrX]

Holy crap. A thread that almost got out of hand but the posters worked it out amongst themselves and kept it out of the private zone. An SBR first?

And, a resolution to use fewer emoticons! Truly a good day in SBRland.

Anyway. Welcome, those of you who are new.

[Cee]

Holy crap. A thread that almost got out of hand but the posters worked it out amongst themselves and kept it out of the private zone. An SBR first?

And, a resolution to use fewer emoticons! Truly a good day in SBRland.

Anyway. Welcome, those of you who are new.

This stinks, i live for emoticons. I'm gonna hafta find a new passion in life now

[MrX]

What about an emoticon hour, say 9-10pm PT every day?

[Ice Queen]

its emoticon hour, well, here, well, it was about 45 mins ago, but i was at work, and i dont wanna miss out

[Cee]

What about an emoticon hour, say 9-10pm PT every day?

Lmao, cee in

[Thremp]

[QUOTE=Ice Queen;460814]

I'm glad to see I'm not the only person that shizzy annoys. Beer clinking glasses are the hallmark of a "I have no clue what I'm talking about" post.

Tilt.

[bigboydan]

Holy crap. A thread that almost got out of hand but the posters worked it out amongst themselves and kept it out of the private zone. An SBR first?

I think so MrX

[Ice Queen]

[QUOTE=Thremp;460821]

Tilt.

i really dont know what im talking about, this is why i do that.

hopefully some day.

[BuddyBear]

Do you not think it is possible to be on the right side of a bet that loses? It doesn't need to be sports betting. It can be poker, blackjack or any other game of chance where random events on a probability distribution occur.

Well sure, you get a meaningless TD that beats you or some backdoor nonsense okay or you have Maryland tonight and you lose then, yeah, you are on the "right side"...you take +2.5 and you lose by 18 pts and spend the entire game trailing by double digits, well sorry to inform you but you aren't on the "right side."

A sample size of one game is not enough to make this conclusion.

Right, except for the fact that you mentioned in an earlier post that you were on the "right side"....it should have been pretty obvious 15 minutes into the game that you had a losing ticket.

Please define "right price" and "right side".

No need to be a smart ass here. As if you don't know. Right side just means the side that should have covered all things being equal (i.e. Texas in this case). Right price means taking the best possible number regardless of outcome (i.e ASU +3/+2.5 or Texas -1). It's as simple as that. No need to give this nonsense with math formulas and stuff that requires taking an advanced statistics course. This isn't rocket science here.....you rely strong handicapping skills and getting the best possible number and hope for the best. That's all there is to it......

[mofome]

Holy crap. A thread that almost got out of hand but the posters worked it out amongst themselves and kept it out of the private zone. An SBR first?

And, a resolution to use fewer emoticons! Truly a good day in SBRland.

Anyway. Welcome, those of you who are new.

we're grown men. remp and don have passion for this stuff which i love. without passion, nothing is worth much. add some respect from all parties, and we move on to the next topic/day.

i pulled more from this thread than i thought i would. thats a productive day.


thanks for the welcome.