I hate when line movement tricks me into thinking im on the 'right side'

[mofome]

[Ice Queen]

i hate that too, it makes me so mad

[rjt721]

TheGreek is taunting me. Still over 1 minute left, yet they already have my ASU +2.5 graded as a loss. Damn you, Spiro.

[mofome]

Greek is taunting me. Still over 1 minute left, yet they already have my ASU +2.5 graded as a loss.

thats fkked up. if betjm did that to me i might not even accept their christmas bonus next year.

[donjuan]

Uh, when the market moves in your favor you are almost always on the "right" side. The right side doesn't win 100% of the time, after all.

[mofome]

Uh, when the market moves in your favor you are almost always on the "right" side. The right side doesn't win 100% of the time, after all.

Texas was the right side tonight though. i got my ass handed to me.

[donjuan]

Why was Texas the right side? Because they won?

[Lucas]

i am not sure about "almost always"
what about today´s move on totals PHO/LAC... 106.5 to 109
who can bet over 108.5???
some second half movements are strange too
i do not say "movement is in 50%+ wrong" but "almost always" seems to be strong statement

[mofome]

Why was Texas the right side? Because they won?

imo they were the right side because they dominated the game. if these teams play 10 timse, asu loses 9 times. simple enough.

[donjuan]

So you'd make ASU something like a 17 point underdog to Texas? Is that some kind of sick level?

[mofome]

So you'd make ASU something like a 17 point underdog to Texas? Is that some kind of sick level?

you're a bit on the pompous side, arent ya, sport? just throwing out numbers? at 2, the right side was texas. thats what i said. i never said the line was off by 15, but why would that matter?

:

[donjuan]

You said Texas wins the game 9 out of 10 times. Where do you think the corresponding point spread would be? 7? 10? Is this some kind of bizarro-distribution?

Another question for you: I give you 2 to 1 odds on heads on the fair flip of a coin. You accept the bet and the coin lands on tails. Were you on the wrong side?

[mofome]

You said Texas wins the game 9 out of 10 times. Where do you think the corresponding point spread would be? 7? 10? Is this some kind of bizarro-distribution?

Another question for you: I give you 2 to 1 odds on heads on the fair flip of a coin. You accept the bet and the coin lands on tails. Were you on the wrong side?

you take things to such extremes. the coin flip comparison makes no sense. i know the right side can lose, but this was not a case of that. i dont know what you're always trying to prove, but let it go. asu wasnt the right side on any level tonight. none.

sawy.

[donjuan]

you take things to such extremes.

Did you or did you not say the following:

if these teams play 10 timse, asu loses 9 times. simple enough.

So if you set the fair line on this game at ±900, what point spread would you assign it?

[2Pac]

Don't look at line movement, because that's exactly what it will do.

It's stupid, and has NOTHING to do with the actual game.

[mofome]

Did you or did you not say the following:



So if you set the fair line on this game at ±900, what point spread would you assign it?

you analyze too many things trying to prove that you have a large e-penis. you think asu was the right side tonight, pal?

[Thremp]

mofome,

You make this forum worse by your mere existence. God forbid anyone actually listen to anything you actually right.

Sometimes I feel like I'm in the twlight zone where I have to sift through 8000 posts like this to find something by Rickysteve, durito, Ganch etc...

... Or maybe I'm going about this the wrong way.

[mofome]

Don't look at line movement, because that's exactly what it will do.

It's stupid, and has NOTHING to do with the actual game.

according to don it means almost everything. texas was the wrong side tonight.

[4FUN.AND$$]

donjuan,

contribute something to the thread or get lost. Your whining is doing nothing for the thread...

[mofome]

mofome,

You make this forum worse by your mere existence. God forbid anyone actually listen to anything you actually right.

Sometimes I feel like I'm in the twlight zone where I have to sift through 8000 posts like this to find something by Rickysteve, durito, Ganch etc...

... Or maybe I'm going about this the wrong way.

who could have guessed that your ignorant self would show up here?



you're the kind of guy that will be negative with me no matter what. ive dealt with your kind before. you just want to prove something, just like don, after all your baseball nonsense. move on.

the fact is, Texas was the right side tonight. if you think thats stupid, than i feel badly for you.

[donjuan]

Don't look at line movement, because that's exactly what it will do.

It's stupid, and has NOTHING to do with the actual game.

Last time I checked, this wasn't a competition to make the most donk-tarded statement possible. Seriously, do you think books don't like people chasing steam because they like making arbitrary rules that have nothing to do with their bottom line?

And if you really believe your statement above, please take a look at this link and track your results for yourself:

[mofome]

donjuan,

contribute something to the thread or get lost. Your whining is doing nothing for the thread...

some people will be negative just to be negative. the ignorant reply is to prove something to me, not to make an actual point or discuss anything about this game or its line movement. some people get huffy to mark their territory, like a dog pissing on a tree. meaningless, but if it makes him feel good, more power to him.

[donjuan]

you analyze too many things trying to prove that you have a large e-penis. you think asu was the right side tonight, pal?

Obviously it depends on the line you got for ASU. If you got ASU +3 +100, then yes I think that was the right side. If you got Texas ML +100, then I think that was the right side.

Now, will you please tell me what you think the point spread should have been for this game?

[4FUN.AND$$]

I can't understand the combative nature of some people on this forum over some simple statements. Did they not get breast fed ? Ridiculous..

[donjuan]

some people will be negative just to be negative. the ignorant reply is to prove something to me, not to make an actual point or discuss anything about this game or its line movement. some people get huffy to mark their territory, like a dog pissing on a tree. meaningless, but if it makes him feel good, more power to him.

Uh, no. The point is to show you that line movements are extremely meaningful.

[donjuan]

contribute something to the thread or get lost. Your whining is doing nothing for the thread...

Other than Thremp, it appears that I am the only one actually contributing something remotely +ev.

[flyingillini]

I can't understand the combative nature of some people on this forum over some simple statements. Did they not get breast fed ? Ridiculous..

Agreed. Some of the crap makes me shake my head and wonder where do they come from? haha

[DrunkenLullaby]

donjuan,

contribute something to the thread or get lost. Your whining is doing nothing for the thread...

Ah, but now this, THIS is a contribution! Perhaps "philanthropist" would be a better screen name.

[mofome]

Uh, no. The point is to show you that line movements are extremely meaningful.

i never said it wasnt meaningful, cupcake. in fact, here is something i wrote today and the reply:



"Originally Posted by mofome



for now, just read some about the games and see whos picks you like. you'll need to learn about line movement and all kinds of things before you want to go out and cap your own games. just find a game you're interested in and get some discussion going about it. base your play on what hits ya while you're reading.


----

Hey Mofome do you have any areas you can point me to that I can learn about line movements, etc? I started making lots of bets since September and have faired pretty well other then putting all my money on an underdog and losing it all last few minutes "


---


there, now i have proven that i believe line movement is important. ive said as much today. you just said that the point of you being in this thread is to show me that line movement is meaningful. now that you've seen you didnt need to, what will be your complaint? we both know thats not the real reason you're here. if it were, you would now say that you were mistaken for assuming that i didnt put value in line movement. but...we both know you wont. odd, isnt it?

you arent quite as bright as you give yourself credit for.

what now? you just stated your reason for being here. ive discounted it. what? if you arent full of it...then you're done here.


buh bye.

[4FUN.AND$$]

Agreed. Some of the crap makes me shake my head and wonder where do they come from? haha

glad I am not the only one. Good luck mofome and flyingillini in coming weeks.

[mofome]

glad I am not the only one. Good luck mofome and flyingillini in coming weeks.

thanks man. i'll take all the luck i can get. its never fun when someones lone purpose is to be negative, but it happens. i was simply looking to discuss something about this game, its line movement, and how i got my ass handed to me because i was on the wrong side. doesnt seem like something that would make someone upset, but it seems that it has.

bol to you as well.

[mofome]

Obviously it depends on the line you got for ASU. If you got ASU +3 +100, then yes I think that was the right side. If you got Texas ML +100, then I think that was the right side.

Now, will you please tell me what you think the point spread should have been for this game?

who offered asu +3 +100?

[donjuan]

You obviously still don't understand the importance of line movements or what a probability distribution is if you are still making the idiotic statement you made in the OP.

[mofome]

You obviously still don't understand the importance of line movements or what a probability distribution is if you are still making the idiotic statement you made in the OP.

i understand the importance of line movement or i wouldnt have cited it earlier. probability distribution i dont know a ton about. nope. i hope thats ok with you?




so, where and when was asu +3 +100.

[donjuan]

so, where and when was asu +3 +100.

AFAIK it wasn't. It was merely an example to illustrate a point that you clearly made no attempt to understand.

Now, what should have been the point spread for this game that corresponds with your ±900 ML?