I came up with the greatest system known to a mankind

mathdotcom · 07-21-10, 05:28 PM

You are going to get busted 35% of the time

TR88 · 07-21-10, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

What you are doing basically is covering the Braves loss with getting 1/2 your bet back on the ML with a Padres 2 run win. And you are only risking another 20% of your original bet.

I call it Asian Handicap of baseball (like when you bet some on the draw in soccer)

I like that strategy. Will try it tonight. I think Atlanta will win again, but have to back it up with Padres like you said.

TR88 · 07-21-10, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

You are going to get busted 35% of the time

35% its not bad, what do you recommend ? Any different system.

ngates815 · 07-21-10, 05:56 PM

TR88 My man...I bit. Better not come back to haunt me.

TR88 · 07-21-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by ngates815

TR88 My man...I bit. Better not come back to haunt me.

Oh man...we will get em tonight !

TR88 · 07-21-10, 06:02 PM

THE HITMAN · 07-21-10, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by TR88

After a week I will show you my winnings!

In all fairness and respect, a day, a week, even a month is not enough numbers toevaluate this. Go bacxk to last year, for instance, and figure all the games and see how many 1 runners will have killed this "system". They ain't dumb, TR, but GL to you with it. If you're up after a week, I'd take my money $ run.

Masu485 · 07-21-10, 06:11 PM

it can work if you pick your spots and dump a ton of money on it a few times. doing this method though brings bad luck though, and u'll see the fav win by 1 a ton more times than usual.

stikymess · 07-21-10, 06:15 PM

I seen this somewhere else and I think they figured out you have to be around 94% to cover those games that fail. Again there is history to go back and check, this may have been great when they first open Coors Field when they were getting football scores out of that place.

I wish you luck, but reminds me of that guy betting heavy favorites on the ML, can get wiped out in one bet.

Now if you can find a book that puts up a -1 line maybe then you might have something.

J'Smith · 07-21-10, 06:38 PM

Tried this for some time. You have to choose carefully the games you bet on.

J'Smith · 07-21-10, 06:39 PM

Might try it again

J'Smith · 07-21-10, 06:44 PM

You have to choose your games very carefully. Good luck!

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by TR88

Ok today is the beginning of a new start guys. I just came up with something crazy. I will just give you one example and you can figure out the rest. I must be genius.
Lets say at 7:10 p.m. are playing Atlanta Braves vs Padres. RL for the Braves is +130 so you put $ there. If they cover you win 130, but thats just one of the bets for this game. On the other side you put $100 for the Padres- +152 if they win you got yourself $152 more. So Atlanta cover the RL you win $130 + $100 original bet is $230, but you got $100 on the Padres so that mean $230-$200=$30 profit. The other way around Padres win $152+$100= $252 but you got $100 braves so $252-$100= $152 and $52 profits. I must be pretty smart huh ?

However you can still lose if these fuks on the RL dont cover, but thats unlikely.

SO THIS WILL BE THE BOOKIES----->

and THIS IS YOU------>

Feel free to try it.

Okay now looks like $52 profit. How much did the non believers lose today ? I won couple hundreds....not bad, not bad

ngates815 · 07-21-10, 10:22 PM

whewwwww....it was sketchy last I checked it was 9th inning and tied game, I figured Fukc faces from ATL would win by 1....just checked now and SD up 2 in the bottom of 12th.

Very nice.

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by ngates815

whewwwww....it was sketchy last I checked it was 9th inning and tied game, I figured Fukc faces from ATL would win by 1....just checked now and SD up 2 in the bottom of 12th.

Very nice.

A little sweat we had buddy, but at the end of the day we made it. Lest continue our discussion and thoughts about the games in this thread. Hope we get em tomorrow again.

sharpcat · 07-21-10, 10:28 PM

Damn near lost $200 trying to win $52, roughly -400. I bet you were sweating bullets when that game went into extra innings knowing if ATL wins at home by 1 you are out $200.

Nice score though hopefully you realized how this play will have long term -EV.

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by sharpcat

Damn near lost $200 trying to win $52, roughly -400. I bet you were sweating bullets when that game went into extra innings knowing if ATL wins at home by 1 you are out $200.

Nice score though hopefully you realized how this play will have long term -EV.

I see you followed. I know it will be hard, but let me say to you. We are not going to bet every single game....if we do that we will be loosers like the rest here. We are going to choose between 3 or 4 dogs, I prefer home dogs, but we will see. Thats what I'm thinking will be the best solution in our way to beat this fukin bookies.

sharpcat · 07-21-10, 10:42 PM

Home dogs would probably be better for you considering away teams are roughly 7% more likely to win by more than 1 run but it is still -EV so pick your spots carefully. If you insist on doing this I would suggest not only line shopping but attempting to predict line moves and place your wagers at different times frames in an attempt to hopefully decrease your negative EV.

pico · 07-21-10, 10:45 PM

good system. you should take out a mortgage and try it out

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:47 PM

Will take your suggestion and try to improve everything I can about this system.

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by pico

good system. you should take out a mortgage and try it out

Will do that in the near future.

of course if I go into a hole, but there is no chance.

thebayareabeast · 07-21-10, 10:50 PM

I suggest you take Sharpcats advice

It might have a chance at keeping you afloat a little longer before you go broke.

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by thebayareabeast

I suggest you take Sharpcats advice

It might have a chance at keeping you afloat a little longer before you go broke.

thats what I said earlier. I will take his suggestions.

wwerules · 07-21-10, 10:54 PM

thats cool im new to this site

TR88 · 07-21-10, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by wwerules

thats cool im new to this site

tomorrow will be our day.

ngates815 · 07-22-10, 06:51 AM

What are you playing today WHORE.

stikymess · 07-22-10, 11:16 AM

Maybe add into the mix high ERA's, with this "system" you need runs, runs, runs, best of luck going forward.

Bluehorseshoe · 07-22-10, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

you are the only person in the world that has ever thought of this.

yellowman · 07-22-10, 11:26 AM

I love all the 'sharps' in this thread telling the OP that his system doesn't work...actually this system works very very well, maybe not exactly as the OP laid it out, but it does work...you just have to know a few basic baseball statistics and be good with numbers.

Historically over that last 5 years, the home team wins by 1 run pretty much exactly 1 out of every six games - that is a 10k+ game sample. So using this formula, for every 6 games you bet you will expect lose 2 units. The trick is finding a way to guarantee winning more than 2 units from the other 5 games combined ( or 0.4 units per game for that math challenged). You now have the holy grail, a certified long-term edge, no chasing no bullshit like that involved. Knowing how and where to do this is what you 'players' have to figure out....

stikymess · 07-22-10, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by yellowman

I love all the 'sharps' in this thread telling the OP that his system doesn't work...actually this system works very very well, maybe not exactly as the OP laid it out, but it does work...you just have to know a few basic baseball statistics and be good with numbers. Historically over that last 5 years, the home team wins by 1 run pretty much exactly 1 out of every six games - that is a 10k+ game sample. So using this formula, for every 6 games you bet you will expect lose 2 units. The trick is finding a way to guarantee winning more than 2 units from the other 5 games combined ( or 0.4 units per game for that math challenged). You now have the holy grail, a certified long-term edge, no chasing no bullshit like that involved. Knowing how and where to do this is what you 'players' have to figure out....

Yellowman, isn't that flawed 'cause not every home team is favored to win, thus a 1 run win by the home team as a doggie is a win with this "system"

Swinging Johnson · 07-22-10, 01:29 PM

Ahhhhh, to be young and optimistic...........soon to be old and broke.

Bluehorseshoe · 07-22-10, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by yellowman

The trick is finding a way to guarantee winning more than 2 units from the other 5 games combined ( or 0.4 units per game for that math challenged). You now have the holy grail, a certified long-term edge, no chasing no bullshit like that involved. Knowing how and where to do this is what you 'players' have to figure out....

The other trick is getting 50 cents back for every $200 wagered.

yellowman · 07-22-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by stikymess

Yellowman, isn't that flawed 'cause not every home team is favored to win, thus a 1 run win by the home team as a doggie is a win with this "system"

Very true...the visiting team wins by 1 run about 10.5% of the time...however you will find that you will rarely play games with a road favorite as the run line/ml bet combo will not net you enough to play...in other words you won't be guaranteed to make the at least 0.4 units required to make the system long term +EV. You'll be playing pretty much home RL/road ML exclusively

yellowman · 07-22-10, 02:26 PM

you'll net about 0.33u per 6 bets if you work it correctly...and you can probably bet at least 40% of the 2400+ games in a season...so say you bet 1000 games per year at 0.33u per 6, you'd net about 55u per season if the expected 1 run win % stays true to historical averages. This year home teams winning by 1 run is higher than normal, about 18% (vs 16.67 historically over the past 5 years). Last year was great, home teams won by 1 run right at 16%, which was below historical average.

stikymess · 07-22-10, 02:31 PM

Got ya, thanks Yellow great research.