I came up with the greatest system known to a mankind

[EspBruin]

OP is obviously joking. No one is that dumb.

[Dingo17]

It could work, but you have to be smart about the games you pick. What wasn't brought up is that in the one run games the underdog wins about 40% of the time, making these bets payout about 84% of the time. Using that you need to only take bets in which the average of the favored runline and the underdog moneyline are +138, which the books try to avoid. Anything other than that and you have -EV

[sharpcat]

I love all the 'sharps' in this thread telling the OP that his system doesn't work...actually this system works very very well, maybe not exactly as the OP laid it out, but it does work...you just have to know a few basic baseball statistics and be good with numbers.

Historically over that last 5 years, the home team wins by 1 run pretty much exactly 1 out of every six games - that is a 10k+ game sample. So using this formula, for every 6 games you bet you will expect lose 2 units. The trick is finding a way to guarantee winning more than 2 units from the other 5 games combined ( or 0.4 units per game for that math challenged). You now have the holy grail, a certified long-term edge, no chasing no bullshit like that involved. Knowing how and where to do this is what you 'players' have to figure out....

Please correct me where my math is wrong.

Example from todays card:

I will use Pinnacles current line on the Mets @ Dodgers game.

ML=NY +167 NY 36.90%
LOS -178 No-vig price=171 LOS 63.10% win probability

RL=NY +1.5 -130
LOS -1.5 +120

So LOS has a 63.10% probability to win the game minus 17% for the 1 run win equaling 46.10% probability of winning by more than 1 run, and NY has a 36.90% probability to win the game.

So we will calculate our EV:

(LOS WIN -1.5) (NY WIN) (LOS WIN BY 1)
(+$20 * .4610) + (+67 * .3690) + (-200 * .17) =
(+$9.22) + (+$24.723) + (-$34) =
($33.943) + (-$34) =
EV = -$0.057



And keep in mind this is using Pinnacle prices which are going to be very difficult to match let alone beat.

Now you imply that you will only bet Home Fav RL/Away Dog ML when home teams are favored and say that you will be able to bet at least 40% of the games played in the season I find it hard to believe that you would have 1,000+ games with +EV. I do agree just like any other market you may find a few weak numbers but you will not find 1,000 betting and most importantly you are not taking game totals into consideration and are just blindly betting 1,000+ games based on 1 statistic of 17% spread across the board but just focusing it on 1 game.

[lyon804]

Sharpcat, you are correct 100% but you must consider your audience. I am sure in due time they will find you are right. I love the youthful exuberance of many here. It's like duh, can't believe it was that..LOL It's amazing Las Vegas is such a beautiful place.

[sharpcat]

Sharpcat, you are correct 100% but you must consider your audience. I am sure in due time they will find you are right. I love the youthful exuberance of many here. It's like duh, can't believe it was that..LOL It's amazing Las Vegas is such a beautiful place.

According to Yellowman you will earn 55 units in 8 months doing this so if one simply bet $3,000 units they would make $165,000 in 8 months. I can not believe that the books are still in business with this gigantic loophole in their system.

I guess we will hear back from him as soon as he parks his yacht for the evening

[yellowman]

LOL no yacht here...just something I worked on for quite some time...

take sharpcat's numbers...which can easily be beaten btw

assuming $100 unit

NY +167
LOS +120

Put 90.35 to win 150.88 on NY ML
Put 109.65 to win 131.58 on LOS -1.5

Guaranteed win of 41.23 as long as LOS doesn't win by 1

Also I may mention again that these numbers can be beaten easily right now as I am looking at much better numbers on both sides...I see +173 and +127 at various places

Pop those in and the 41.23 win becomes 47.88

Now if you can average around .465u guaranteed win per game which is not that hard you can expect to lose 2u once every 6 games but win 5 * .465 (or 2.325u) on the other 5 games...netting you .325u. Sharp, you'll also find that playing that many games over the season your win% number will fall roughly in line with the overall win% for that season - meaning individual games really don't matter, but the aggregate of the season will, ie if the seasonal win in this scenario overall is 82%, my win personal win percentage will be very very close to that number. If the overall win % was higher, I'd expect mine to reflect that as well...

I could care less if anyone agrees or disagrees, I am just stating that it is most definitely possible to find an edge with the OP's simplistic example.

[sharpcat]

But you always assume your home team to win by one 17% of the time to hold true for all games played and do not take into consideration the fact that a game total of 7 has roughly a 5% higher likelihood of ending in a 1 point difference than a game with a total of 9.

I hope you are not looking at SBR odds because it has not been working properly today.

And I hope if you are referring to matchbooks prices that you are taking commission into consideration and subtracting .02 cents from the line, a line of +173 at matchbook is truly +171 since you pay commission whether you win or lose unlike most books where you only pay juice if you lose. Also you should make note of the liquidity issues that may arise when looking at matchbook which may not allow you to get down what you need to get down.

Even at the numbers you give of guaranteeing a profit of $41.23 at a 83.34% win rate your EV would look like this.

(+$41.23 * .8334) + (-200 * .1666) +
(+$34.36) + (-33.32) = +$1.04

I have not found one book outside of matchbook coming close to the numbers you suggested so assuming you likely made the error of not factoring in commission of 1% on $200 which is $2 you are now sitting at EV of -$0.96

And even if these are the true prices you were able to get down at a 1% edge is not a very solid edge assuming that your 16.66% number which was pulled from 10K games fits exactly on every game, there is no room for error and you are basically betting a crapshoot with the books.

Give me some locations of where you are getting these lines and it will hold more weight but I can not accept a matchbook line without commission deducted to hold.

[sharpcat]

Also if you were able to get LOS -1.5 +173 and NYM +127 why not just bet the +173 straight up considering that the Pinnacle no-vig lines have been sitting at +170 and +125 all day? you would have a 1.19% edge on +173.

+173 edge= 1.19%
+127 edge= 0.88%

[thebayareabeast]

According to Yellowman you will earn 55 units in 8 months doing this so if one simply bet $3,000 units they would make $165,000 in 8 months. I can not believe that the books are still in business with this gigantic loophole in their system.

I guess we will hear back from him as soon as he parks his yacht for the evening