Durito v Robzilla Bet

[capitalist pig]

So whats the score on the 1st day of wagering?

later

[durito]

1-2 with no bets so far today

[HedgeHog]

Over/Under on this:

37.5 bets

[robzilla]

Remember how all this started cuz i layed -121?
Now Im not allowed to lay more than -115.....? doesnt seem right.
Then i said how ive gone 16-0 before betting the mL. cant do that either. Doesnt really feel like bet is based on anything talked about.

[ChuteBoxe]

I think you guys should raise it to -125, -135. How much of a difference would that really make in the outcome of 75%? What if he wants to buy a half point off the 3? Or, something like Houston @ Cleveland for tomorrow, that's -120 at my book(BetJam), not buying anything. Otherwise, pretty cool contest.

[robzilla]

Cleveland -3 -109 match

[robzilla]

Cleveland -3 -109 match

i can use anything on SBR Odds.

[ChuteBoxe]

I don't have a matchbook acct. I am looking for a secondary book to shop numbers though. You a US bettor? Wondering if it's easy to deposit/withdraw. Maybe I'll give them a shot next weekend.

[robzilla]

Cincinnati +0.5 1H -115 matchbook

[robzilla]

Tampa -3 -115 matchbook
TB-WAS Over 18.5 1H -108 matchbook

[robzilla]

Seattle -1.5 1H -107matchbook

[robzilla]

Minnesota at New York Over 20.0 1H -109

[robzilla]

Oakland at Kansas City (1st Half)
Over 17.0 1H -112

[robzilla]

Cleveland -3 -109 match
Cincinnati +0.5 1H -115 matchbook
Tampa -3 -115 matchbook
TB-WAS Over 18.5 1H -108 matchbook
Seattle -1.5 1H -107matchbook
Minnesota at New York Over 20.0 1H -109
Oakland at Kansas City Over 17.0 1H -112

[durito]

I think you guys should raise it to -125, -135. How much of a difference would that really make in the outcome of 75%? What if he wants to buy a half point off the 3? Or, something like Houston @ Cleveland for tomorrow, that's -120 at my book(BetJam), not buying anything. Otherwise, pretty cool contest.

Break even pt at -135 = 57.44% Hitting 60% there isn't quite as impressive.

[durito]

Remember how all this started cuz i layed -121?
Now Im not allowed to lay more than -115.....? doesnt seem right.
Then i said how ive gone 16-0 before betting the mL. cant do that either. Doesnt really feel like bet is based on anything talked about.

You never said this before. Show me the post where you said you went 16-0 betting the ml's (something i doubt just as much as the pointspreads)

Some early excuses after you realize you can't win?

I can design another bet if you'd like to lay more juice, but you are going to have to a hit a similar return.

60% at -115 of 50 units, would give you a return of 30-20(1.15) = +7

If you want to bet money lines I can start a new bet with similar parameters. As Ganchrow has already explained, this bet is set up to be very advantageous for you and in fact you don't need to be a 75% capper as you claim, but only a 54% capper to have value betting it. But, you understand that right?

So good luck today, I hope you get your 60% and we can have another bet.

[SBR Lou]

I don't have a matchbook acct. I am looking for a secondary book to shop numbers though. You a US bettor? Wondering if it's easy to deposit/withdraw. Maybe I'll give them a shot next weekend.

Yes they welcome US action. Very easy funding, just use MoneyGram, quick and painless w/ very small fee. Haven't tried their other options.

[robzilla]

Cleveland -3 -109 match
Cincinnati +0.5 1H -115 matchbook
Tampa -3 -115 matchbook
TB-WAS Over 18.5 1H -108 matchbook
Seattle -1.5 1H -107matchbook
Minnesota at New York Over 20.0 1H -109
Oakland at Kansas City Over 17.0 1H -112

6 WINS 4 LOSSES OVERALL 60%

[robzilla]

Chicago -0.5 1H +106
Baltimore at San Diego Over 18.5 1H -101

7 WINS 5 LOSSES OVERALL 58%

[durito]

Good job so far 6-4.

[robzilla]

Good job so far 6-4.

good thing this is only 50 games eh.

[SPECULATOR 13]

Break even pt at -135 = 57.44% Hitting 60% there doesn't seem too impressive.

durito,you are the only person since i have been on SBR (that i am aware off)witch as spoken of the break-even pt.It is unbelievable how many people whom do not understand the meaning or even if they do, just ignores it completely.
i got f*ck by Houston but won with OAKTOWN so i need philly to-nite...

[BuddyBear]

good thing this is only 50 games eh.

It's to your disadvantage that it is only 50 games

[durito]

It's to your disadvantage that it is only 50 games

Unless he truly is a winning handicapper, the smaller number of picks is to his advantage. Over a larger sample of play his true winning percentage is more likely to be represented.

[BuddyBear]

Unless he truly is a winning handicapper, the smaller number of picks is to his advantage. Over a larger sample of play his true winning percentage is more likely to be represented.

Well right. Assuming his absurd claim of 70% or whatever he claims to be, the true population mean average will be exhibited best through 1000s of bets (see the Central Limit Theorom in statistics). So it would be in his best interest to request the largest sample size of bets possible if he is truly an elite capper like he claims.

50 bets means there is likely to be more variance because it is such a small sample size. Obviously he recognizes that he has been caught in an embarrassing lie....and realizes that if he were to say make 500 bets he would most likely end up with a 50/50 record. Selecting 50 bets is advantageous only to the extant that he is misrepresenting his record....

[robzilla]

Anahiem vs. LA over 5.5 +100
Philadelphia at New England Over 50.0 -115
Chicago Blackhawks +0.5 +107 Regulation Time

I should be 10-5 after this.

PS.... Buddybear takes boyscouts on "camping trips".

[HedgeHog]

What's the record to date? Can I get John Laycock to go 50-0 with a similar bet? That guy never loses (beats Rob's mere 75%).

[robzilla]

Well right. Assuming his absurd claim of 70% or whatever he claims to be, the true population mean average will be exhibited best through 1000s of bets (see the Central Limit Theorom in statistics). So it would be in his best interest to request the largest sample size of bets possible if he is truly an elite capper like he claims.

50 bets means there is likely to be more variance because it is such a small sample size. Obviously he recognizes that he has been caught in an embarrassing lie....and realizes that if he were to say make 500 bets he would most likely end up with a 50/50 record. Selecting 50 bets is advantageous only to the extant that he is misrepresenting his record....

You are an idiot!

okay, I cant bet anything over -115 and no moneylines. Being able to bet the moneyline or lay anything over -115 would atleast increase my winning % 10 percent. So if I can get 60% with these rules in place, is it so far fetched that I should be able to win at 70%?

[durito]

You are an idiot!

okay, I cant bet anything over -115 and no moneylines. Being able to bet the moneyline or lay anything over -115 would atleast increase my winning % 10 percent. So if I can get 60% with these rules in place, is it so far fetched that I should be able to win at 70%?

we were talking point spread betting in the other thread.

nevertheless, i would expect you to be laying an average of at least -220 to win at 70%+.

Also, can you stop editing your posts with the picks in them, that is against the rules. I know you are just adding plays and your record, but please do this in separate posts, thanks.

[HedgeHog]

Betting New England ML gets you 100%.

[robzilla]

we were talking point spread betting in the other thread.

nevertheless, i would expect you to be laying an average of at least -220 to win at 70%+.

Also, can you stop editing your posts with the picks in them, that is against the rules. I know you are just adding plays and your record, but please do this in separate posts, thanks.

Sorry, just grading my wagers.
And yes, ofcouse i lay games anywhere from -110 to -180 or more. So why is it so unbelievable that i win at 70%?

[robzilla]

Anahiem vs. LA over 5.5 +100
Philadelphia at New England Over 50.0 -115
Chicago Blackhawks +0.5 +107 Regulation Time

I should be 10-5 after this.

PS.... Buddybear takes boyscouts on "camping trips".

9 WINS 7 LOSSES OVERALL 56%

[robzilla]

Miami at Pittsburgh Over 19.5 1H -109
Pittsburgh -9.5 1H -101
Dallas at NY IslandersOver 5.0 -108

[robzilla]

Miami at Pittsburgh Over 19.5 1H -109
Pittsburgh -9.5 1H -101
Dallas at NY IslandersOver 5.0 -108

Dallas v. NYI push
lost the other 2

uh oh
9-9-1 that aint good.

[durito]

You only have to go 21-11 to win (65.6%)

Should be no problem for you. Good luck