VERY common misconception among posters - middles

[mathdotcom]

Suppose SBR John offers you the following on a basketball total:

OVER 250 -110
UNDER 250 -110

and the market (fair) total is 200.

95% of posters would bet both sides and hope for the total to land somewhere in between. Fine.

But if you can only get the market total at -110 prices, you are maximizing expected value by only betting the Under 250. The single bet of Over 200 -110 is -EV.

If you bet 100k on the Under 250 I wouldn't blame you for wanting to minimize some of the risk, but some people here have the impression that you have to take a shot at the middle (ie. the chance of winning both bets is just too much to pass up).

So if you're just betting 200 points (ie. peanuts) on SBR John's offering, just let it ride.

- mathy

[mathdotcom]

Now I wait for FH to come in and note that Matchbook probably has Over 200 -101 and Under 200 +100...

[Chi_archie]

good info

[pavyracer]

Mathy I bet you if the game lands on the middle (not your example) people will proclaim themselves geniuses.

[jjgold]

Mathy your sharp, might be number 1 math guy here

[Fishhead]

If one is inclined to absolutely have a middle working, perhaps taking back just a small percentage on the market line would at least satisfy one's appetite........say 15-30%.


But as MDT stated, the +ev is with the "off" line.

[mathdotcom]

There is indeed an unquantifiable pleasure from hitting a middle

[mathdotcom]

pavy you're right

we will be rooting for a low total

[durito]

If one is inclined to absolutely have a middle working, perhaps taking back just a small percentage on the market line would at least satisfy one's appetite........say 15-30%.


But as MDT stated, the +ev is with the "off" line.

You don't even begin to understand this concept.

[Chi_archie]

ok boys, that's enough of a sample of think tank talk for the night in Players Talk.... you don't wanna make our brains explode do ya

[mathdotcom]

durito

be careful how you talk to some people on the forum... they may not be what they appear...

[yisman]

what I did was bet everything in my wallet on the under, and most of that amount in the sportsbook on the over. If it goes under, I'm guaranteed a profit, even without the middle. If it goes over, I lose some.

[Fishhead]

You don't even begin to understand this concept.

[Chi_archie]

yes.... you crushed him with the double yawn.....

that'll show em fishhead.....


I doubt we see the likes of Durito doubting your math skills anytime soon, now

[mathdotcom]

what I did was bet everything in my wallet on the under, and most of that amount in the sportsbook on the over. If it goes under, I'm guaranteed a profit, even without the middle. If it goes over, I lose some.

I suggest you re-read the first post in this thread.

[Fishhead]

Life is good Matty!!!


Halos on the move as expected!

[yisman]

I read what you wrote mathy and I'm telling you what I did.

Is there a problem?

[poker_dummy101]

As I stated:

Noone cares if you got a great number and scalped it if its not available now. Noone gives a flying fukk what you have done if its not available now. Funny how none of the "Oh no! The line went against me bigtime and now im fukked!!" threads ever occur.

Besides, many people smarter than me at sports betting have already pointed out: if you beating the closing line, that is +EV....... so wtf are you doing scalping it?

Stop the BS, noone cares.

[mathdotcom]

Those who tried to middle SBRJohn's offer tonight paid the price

[yisman]

I won.

[emoney]

What is middling.

[yisman]

it finished at 221!!!!

[yisman]

[Andy117]

SBR just got middled, right?

[Fishhead]

KABOOM!!!

[mathdotcom]

Mathy I bet you if the game lands on the middle (not your example) people will proclaim themselves geniuses.

[yisman]

Those who tried to middle SBRJohn's offer tonight paid the price

Or did they?

[pavyracer]

What is middling.

223.5 at one book
220 at another book

Game lands at 221. If you bet the under on 223.5 and over on 220 book you win twice. This is middling.

[Fishhead]

[mathdotcom]

Or did they?

Congrats yisman

[yisman]

mathy you're the one with the foot in his mouth here.

Tell me again how people going for the middle "paid the price."

[EmpireMaker]

Middle Hit !!!

[emoney]

223.5 at one book
220 at another book

Game lands at 221. If you bet the under on 223.5 and over on 220 book you win twice. This is middling.

OK thanks. That makes a little more sense.

I thought it was when someone takes it in the ass from one guy while sucking off another.

Didn't really sound like my cup of tea.

[suicidekings]

mathy you're the one with the foot in his mouth here.

Tell me again how people going for the middle "paid the price."

Even bad bets can hit sometimes.

[Holtgetsback]

Even bad bets can hit sometimes.