VERY common misconception among posters - middles

[MonkeyF0cker]

Suppose SBR John offers you the following on a basketball total:

OVER 250 -110
UNDER 250 -110

and the market (fair) total is 200.

95% of posters would bet both sides and hope for the total to land somewhere in between. Fine.

But if you can only get the market total at -110 prices, you are maximizing expected value by only betting the Under 250. The single bet of Over 200 -110 is -EV.

If you bet 100k on the Under 250 I wouldn't blame you for wanting to minimize some of the risk, but some people here have the impression that you have to take a shot at the middle (ie. the chance of winning both bets is just too much to pass up).

So if you're just betting 200 points (ie. peanuts) on SBR John's offering, just let it ride.

- mathy

I've stated this about 50 times on this forum. I'll expound a bit. Let's say that you have the following lines available:

TeamA -3.5 -110
TeamB +4.5 -110

TeamA wins the game by 4 points approximately 8% of the time. Fair value for the game is TeamA -3.5 +100.

If you calculate your expected value for simply betting the side with value (TeamB +4.5 -110) versus playing the middle, you get the following results...

Middle:

50% -0.1 units
8% +2 units
42% -0.1 units

(0.92*-0.1) + (0.08*2) = +0.068 units

Straight:
58% +1 unit
42% -1.1 unit

(0.58*1) + (0.42*-1.1) = +0.118 units

Long term, you'll do far better by simply wagering the side with value rather than attempting the middle, even though both methods are profitable long term. By attempting the middle, you are only costing yourself money.

[Chi_archie]

very good breakdown

[MonkeyF0cker]

The only exception to this is that when people have smaller bankrolls and aren't hitting limits at books with their wagers, they can put a greater amount of their bankroll into a middle than they would normally wager on that side if it presented itself immediately. So there is some stipulation there with the EV calculations. However, if you know the push frequencies (you can often get them from the half point calculator) you can figure out which method is best for your bankroll. Suffice to say though, attempting to middle in speculation of later market movement with your normal unit size is generally a poor practice.

[mathdotcom]

Monkey,

You're right. Except yisman hit his middle yesterday. What do you have to say to that!?

[MonkeyF0cker]

LOL. Long term is what matters more than anything...

[gman2114]

need the points

[mathdotcom]

Monkey you idiot... didn't you see.... he hit it yesterday... how can you argue with winning both bets??

[MonkeyF0cker]

LOL. My bad.

[pavyracer]

OK thanks. That makes a little more sense.

I thought it was when someone takes it in the ass from one guy while sucking off another.

Didn't really sound like my cup of tea.

What you describe is spindling not middling.

[bbenson011]

good info...

[Nicky Santoro]

It was already discussed 10 yrs ago as you can see here... Mathy, stop going to MW and stealing all my posts.. this is the 14th time you do this in the last month..

http://www.majorwager.com/forums/mess-hall/89090-incredible-progression.html?highlight=middling

[mathdotcom]

Definitely not something new... but sometimes people need a reminder I guess.

[Chi_archie]

nickay!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mathdotcom]

Nicky were you sick gambler????

[Chi_archie]

I didn't see nicky's name in that majorwager thread....


just sick gamblers......

[yisman]

Monkey,

You're right. Except yisman hit his middle yesterday. What do you have to say to that!?

mathy, you completely missed the point.

I didn't argue with the original post.

I argued when you claimed everyone who tried for a middle "paid the price."

Why? Because you were flat out wrong.

Also, so much for everyone who hit the middle claiming they're geniuses. The sanctimonious and patronizing posts are all from you.

[yisman]

I didn't see nicky's name in that majorwager thread....


just sick gamblers......

Finally an admission from Nicky.

What are you doing man??? If you are talented enough to be able to find #'s like this, why aren't you betting?? The same goes for reno. I don't understand you guys. If I could do what you guys do and get 2.5 points on a college basketball game, I sure as hell wouldn't waste it by buying the other side at the real #. Did you guys ever think how much money you would make if you just bet the game. A hell of a lot more. And don't say that by middling you're not risking anything, because your return on the dollar is much worse than if you were betting these games.

Which I don't disagree with. But some people feel 'safer' by middling.

[Fishhead]

Nicely done Yisman!!!

[mathdotcom]

you paid the price for that middle, and it paid off, but there was a price you had to pay...

I never said anything against middling to hedge against risk, but if you're betting 200 pts on the Under 223.5, you've got to be ridiculously risk averse to attempt the middle.

FH is in a different category of wager size

[mathdotcom]

what I did was bet everything in my wallet on the under, and most of that amount in the sportsbook on the over. If it goes under, I'm guaranteed a profit, even without the middle. If it goes over, I lose some.

That's nice of you to share what you did but it was a bad move, not just for the reasons in my post, but you're betting too much on an -EV line. You could remove all risk (by letting less on the over) and still obtain higher EV rather than doing what you did. This is why I replied

[pavyracer]

Nicky were you sick gambler????

Mathy? This is not a +EV question.

[yisman]

mathy, relax. No one is arguing with you. Take a deep breath and step away from the keyboard.

[yisman]

You could remove all risk (by letting less on the over) and still obtain higher EV rather than doing what you did. This is why I replied

It's gambling. You can't remove all risk unless you use arbitrage.