Laying extremely exotic longshot horses - is it a good strategy or not?

[littlekona]

how many times do I have to repeat myself I own horses.. know jockeys trainers doctors etc... You can't beat the takeout... impossible

OP uses exchange and under 4% commission is beatable. Pari Mutual is different ballgame @ 15+ % esp with the crap rebates USA ADW offer. Offshore with the 7-10% rebates on turnover makes it very close to beatable. The exchange is very much beatable with better prices plus the 3-4%

[arie1985]

The exchange is very much beatable with better prices plus the 3-4%

You are very likely to beat the exchange, but the unexpected can screw you.
I had the discipline, I was betting only on what I was "supposed" to bet on.

I was doing the right thing, literally, theoretically, practically - and it failed.

I am not going back to it, I stopped believing in it ... do I mind throwing $300 and martingaling favorites in $10-$20 bits like you said? Maybe, right now I don't have the mood for it, and I am not expecting this to work well neither ...

What I'm trying to say is that even with discipline you might lose lots of money, and it's not a great experience.

[littlekona]

You are very likely to beat the exchange, but the unexpected can screw you.
I had the discipline, I was betting only on what I was "supposed" to bet on.

I was doing the right thing, literally, theoretically, practically - and it failed.

I am not going back to it, I stopped believing in it ... do I mind throwing $300 and martingaling favorites in $10-$20 bits like you said? Maybe, right now I don't have the mood for it, and I am not expecting this to work well neither ...

What I'm trying to say is that even with discipline you might lose lots of money, and it's not a great experience.

Arie please bro. you did not bet on what you where "supposed" to bet. Laying 500-1 shots is just not right ever. Anyway if you lay bet on a bad favorite or a 500-1 shot its all still gambling and risk invloved no way around it. Bankroll management is even more important when laying horses

[arie1985]

Arie please bro. you did not bet on what you where "supposed" to bet. Laying 500-1 shots is just not right ever. Anyway if you lay bet on a bad favorite or a 500-1 shot its all still gambling and risk invloved no way around it. Bankroll management is even more important when laying horses

I was doing that for months/years, that's how I did it, I didn't bet it on basketball or some game taking a chance, I was taking the "right" chances where I believed it was right.

It's a huge slap in the face, but it's okay, it wasn't meant to be anyway, I should concentrate more on life without this. I will talk to you in a few weeks or so if I'd feel like throwing some small amount on this martingale system laying some favorites but I honestly don't believe in it.

[xtbyx]

i was placed lay bet odds higher than 20,00 and 60 races 154 horses all of them won recently , if you select good criteria i think you will profit long term..

[arie1985]

i was placed lay bet odds higher than 20,00 and 60 races 154 horses all of them won recently , if you select good criteria i think you will profit long term..

Risking $200 to win $10 ... it sounds better, you won 60 times, so you got from $200 to $800 ($600 profit), but what happens if you lose in the next week or so 3 times? All this profit will be gone in seconds.

I'm not saying it couldn't work, I'm saying I'm not interested in it ... I'd certainly not risk $2000 to win $100 on horses with 20 odds, but I understand the value behind it very well - criteria is meaningless when the surprises take place.

[Foxx]

I was doing the right thing, literally, theoretically, practically - and it failed.

Theoretically and practically, it is never the right thing to bet 100% of your bankroll on anything. Yet, that seems to be what you are doing. If you are fond of laying high odds horses, you can develop a sound strategy around that using the right criteria and proper bankroll management. Your bankroll management skills are certainly lacking. I can't comment on your criteria as only you know what criteria you were using, if any. Good luck on the road ahead.

[xtbyx]

fix lay 2€ per horses totalty 154 horses lay on 60 races and get 308€

i dont like lay on horse racing high odds but only try my handicap system

usualy i place bet back 2 or 3 horses on races..

[jjgold]

Gamblers always think they have an edge somewhere

[carolinakid]

you have better odds playing the lotto, than crazy longshots

[arie1985]

you have better odds playing the lotto, than crazy longshots

Totally. Seconded. Well said.

[arie1985]

fix lay 2€ per horses totalty 154 horses lay on 60 races and get 308€

i dont like lay on horse racing high odds but only try my handicap system

usualy i place bet back 2 or 3 horses on races..

Sir, I am not sure I understand your English.
Do you lay horses or do you back them i.e. do you bet against the horse to win or you bet on the horse to win?

If you "place bet" i.e. bet on the horse to place i.e. to win 1st/2nd(/3rd) place then it's a gamble like any other gamble, I don't believe you make money in the long run with it, you can't convince me you do, I can also tell you stories how I made fortune from gambling - it's simply not true because I didn't - if anything I made my income from all sources which are not gambling, gambling if anything never helped me make an additional income, unless you are an affiliate/referrer etc.

Now if you lay horses then I am not sure why did you say "usual(l)y i place bet back 2 or 3 horses on races...." - it does't make any sense.

Are you backing and laying horses on the same time like arbitrage? That is perhaps the only way to profit long term without risking too much, but you need to know the direction of the market - you can do the same with Crypto/Stocks etc.... for me it's not something that I'm looking to do.

[Optional]

Looking for over valued favourites to lay can be fun.


Anyone Lay/Bet live in-race regularly? Now that's hectic betting.

[xtbyx]

Sir, I am not sure I understand your English.
Do you lay horses or do you back them i.e. do you bet against the horse to win or you bet on the horse to win?

If you "place bet" i.e. bet on the horse to place i.e. to win 1st/2nd(/3rd) place then it's a gamble like any other gamble, I don't believe you make money in the long run with it, you can't convince me you do, I can also tell you stories how I made fortune from gambling - it's simply not true because I didn't - if anything I made my income from all sources which are not gambling, gambling if anything never helped me make an additional income, unless you are an affiliate/referrer etc.

Now if you lay horses then I am not sure why did you say "usual(l)y i place bet back 2 or 3 horses on races...." - it does't make any sense.

Are you backing and laying horses on the same time like arbitrage? That is perhaps the only way to profit long term without risking too much, but you need to know the direction of the market - you can do the same with Crypto/Stocks etc.... for me it's not something that I'm looking to do.

back and lay action same race
[IMG][/IMG]

[littlekona]

Looking for over valued favourites to lay can be fun.


Anyone Lay/Bet live in-race regularly? Now that's hectic betting.

I do on occasion most of the time I plan it pre race and its on a closer. The problem with in play is that the live video feed is off as much as 15 seconds here in USA. TVG is the worst. The pro's who are at at the track have a huge edge. I have even heard stories of pro's using drones to get live views to gain edge

[littlekona]

back and lay action same race
[IMG][/IMG]

ARB. Yes this is the only 100% risk free way. This requires more study and time then Arie is willing to do and is a slow grind

[arie1985]

ARB. Yes this is the only 100% risk free way. This requires more study and time then Arie is willing to do and is a slow grind

No, this is not a real "study", it's not like you get a college or university degree for capping horse races - I can assure you lots of 500-1 layers who laid the horse that won in Swan Hill did a lot of study before they were willing to risk 500 to 1 against that horse -

The nature of gambling limits the amount of skill you can have to beat the house, I'm not underestimating it and I'm not saying skill doesn't help but you should agree with me you can spend your time studying or developing something that will surely make you lots more money than capping horses taking huge risks in there.

Let's put it this way - are you in profits from capping horses until now? Can you retire from it? If the answer is no then no amount of "studying" is worth it, period.

[littlekona]

Arie, your whole thought process is wrong Bro. Number 1 never ever I dont care if its back lay exotics on horses or sports whatever gamble with idea you can retire from it. Its just not a retirement plan. For me its an add on and a hobby that at times when I hit a good pic 5 or go on nice run laying or backing makes life real fun for a while. If I lose not that big a deal since I work and can replenish my roll. The big problem in laying like you do is that the 500-1 shot that just beat you most sharp had at 100-1. Its kinda like me betting Liverpool to win at 2.0 and you at 1.5 its just bad bet. Stick with horses at least @ 40-1 or so and I cant believe I m even saying that :0

[arie1985]

Arie, your whole thought process is wrong Bro. Number 1 never ever I dont care if its back lay exotics on horses or sports whatever gamble with idea you can retire from it. Its just not a retirement plan. For me its an add on and a hobby that at times when I hit a good pic 5 or go on nice run laying or backing makes life real fun for a while. If I lose not that big a deal since I work and can replenish my roll. The big problem in laying like you do is that the 500-1 shot that just beat you most sharp had at 100-1. Its kinda like me betting Liverpool to win at 2.0 and you at 1.5 its just bad bet. Stick with horses at least @ 40-1 or so and I cant believe I m even saying that :0

Sorry man, we're simply not on the same page.
I was looking to make money from this thing, to treat it as a way to make additional income etc.

I am not looking to waste my time gambling winning and losing money - as evidence you can see my last post here before making this thread is from November 2020 ... I got 3 children I'm raising with my wife, I barely have time to waste on gambling now, it's really not something that I'm looking to do.

What you describe here in your post is normal, very normal, it's a normal gambling activity, you win some, you lose some - I don't need it, so no, we're not on the same page. I was looking to try and make money by picking extremely bad/terrible horses that are not supposed to win races - it didn't work - and it's okay, I'm over it ... I'm moving on and focusing on my life knowing this attempt to make money like this is simply not going to work and I wouldn't try it again.

I told you - if I get some free time later on I wouldn't mind risking $300 on some martingale system laying horses which are 2.00 odds or less as favorites - but I don't rely on it, I don't believe it would help me make money, but I wouldn't mind trying it 15 times ($20 each time) and seeing where it takes me...

But as for saying my thought process is wrong - it's not, I disagree - I believe I'm very sober, with lots of clarity in my mind, I am simply not interested in wasting time on what you like to waste time on, at least not at this stage (but as I said later on I wouldn't mind trying it, just not now ... once I do I wouldn't mind talking to you about it in private).

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey ARIE: you thought betting horses to lose that had no shot was a sure thing? But no sure thing gambling wise. Your Logic does not add up. Risking 6K to win $25 makes no sense. It look like a lock, but it ain't especially in racing. I wish the best moving forward. Little Kona seems like he has a good strategy. that's my 2 cents.

[arie1985]

Hey ARIE: you thought betting horses to lose that had no shot was a sure thing? But no sure thing gambling wise. Your Logic does not add up. Risking 6K to win $25 makes no sense. It look like a lock, but it ain't especially in racing. I wish the best moving forward. Little Kona seems like he has a good strategy. that's my 2 cents.

I agree with that.
His stategy is great, but it's gambling.

Yes, thinking backwards risking $6000 on a 5.00 odds horse would have been a better way to risk that money, but it's all good, I'm over it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I agree with that.
His stategy is great, but it's gambling.

Yes, thinking backwards risking $6000 on a 5.00 odds horse would have been a better way to risk that money, but it's all good, I'm over it.

[littlekona]

I agree with that.
His stategy is great, but it's gambling.

Yes, thinking backwards risking $6000 on a 5.00 odds horse would have been a better way to risk that money, but it's all good, I'm over it.

here's a little stratgy I use when laying a favorite. #1 make sure its a drifter. Laying horses that are getting all late action on exchange and that are big favorites is bad idea. #2 make sure other horses are getting action example is a field of 10 if the favorite is 2.5 and only 1 or 2 or3 others are under 12-1 its a pass race I want to see 4-5 or more horses under 12-1 when I lay a favorite more the better sometimes I find races where everyhorse is under 12-1 thats the best. #3 For you Arie you can apply this to a 10-1 shot ML horse who is on the drift but I much prefer 5-1 or less

[JBEX]

if you are laying around 3 (2-1) couldn't you bet around 7-10 % adjusted of your bank because of the high hit rate ?

[JBEX]

if you are laying around 3 (2-1) couldn't you bet around 7-10 % adjusted of your bank because of the high hit rate ?

for you of course..bettor loses

[Foxx]

if you are laying around 3 (2-1) couldn't you bet around 7-10 % adjusted of your bank because of the high hit rate ?

The answer to this depends on the magnitude of your edge, if any. 10% is pretty high though unless you got big edge.

[JBEX]

The answer to this depends on the magnitude of your edge, if any. 10% is pretty high though unless you got big edge.

yeah I was thinking kelly and conservative

5% edge / .5 avg odds taking = 10% ..then maybe I was a little aggressive..cut that in half to 5% ..don't you think if you are betting way too little you're not taking full advantage of your skill ?

[JBEX]

yeah I was thinking kelly and conservative

5% edge / .5 avg odds taking = 10% ..then maybe I was a little aggressive..cut that in half to 5% ..don't you think if you are betting way too little you're not taking full advantage of your skill ?

guess betting not the right terminology..offering at a price I guess..still learning this stuff

[Foxx]

yeah I was thinking kelly and conservative

5% edge / .5 avg odds taking = 10% ..then maybe I was a little aggressive..cut that in half to 5% ..don't you think if you are betting way too little you're not taking full advantage of your skill ?

Or maybe you have so much actual skill that 5% of your bankroll has expanded beyond the liquidity of the pool, depends which markets you are trading I suppose. Given the fickle nature of edges, better to underestimate your edge than overshoot.

[JBEX]

Or maybe you have so much actual skill that 5% of your bankroll has expanded beyond the liquidity of the pool, depends which markets you are trading I suppose. Given the fickle nature of edges, better to underestimate your edge than overshoot.

yeah the mechanics of how things work I really don't understand and you obviously know it well .definitely agree you want to be conservative estimating your edge..main point of what I was saying is that when you're doing this you are going to collect a little more than half the time at the above mentioned price if you are good..if you were betting those horses you were laying , your wagers would be much smaller

[arie1985]

Well, I just came across this one:

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/result/aintree/2021-11-06/1308/31/2

2 days ago a horse named Koshari won the race in Aintree. Prerace the horse was 80/1 (80 to 1), so far it's not really big news.

HOWEVER

Check Timeform.com to see how high and how low the odds went on this one on the BetFair exchange - you need to be registered in order to view this, it's free btw, but I will save you the time and simply post a screenshot of it here:



You can even watch a replay of the race here (starts around 05:30 in the video, it's the 2nd race on that day):

So this horse, Koshari, hit the 1000 mark on the exchanges!

That means you could have bet $100 on it and win $100,000 ...

The liquidity on that horse was high, heck ... you could have bet $1,000 on that horse and win $1,000,000 - there was enough liquidity there to make you super rich.

But why am I posting it here?

To show you I'm glad I'm out of this thing for good ... it doesn't work and it's not worth it.

Yes, you could try to multiply your money 1000x times, most of the times these 1000x bets will fail ... but here is one example where that 1000 horse won the race.

Watch the replay to see why the oddsmakers gave him 1000, he was in the back of the field in a 3+ mile race, and yet managed to win it.

Don't try the strategy that is being offered in this thread - or otherwise you would end up losing too much!!

I'm anyway out of this and just posting it because I came across it ... and it was purely out of curiousity, and I'm glad I came across it so I can tell you and anyone who reads this about it. You've been warned. Don't risk thousands to win $10 - it's not worth it.

[littlekona]

Finally you learned your lesson...Laying is the most profitable wager.. you just have to be find low priced runner's that are vulnerable and do research.
Laying 100-1 shots blind is a bankroll buster. Nothing guaranteed in gambling

[Runeblade]

Simulate it, test, test and test again. see what your history is after a month or so to see where you stand.

[lonegambler23]

lmao ill take your 6k to win 25 dollars all day long pal.

[jjgold]

Waste of time put that money in the financial markets long-term you will bury everybody