BIG 12 very strong - you didn't listen to me........

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  • homie1975
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-24-13
    • 15452

    #141
    Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
    OMG - another bullshit PI call against Fresno State. The checks have been cashed. This is so foul.
    Same thing happened week one in eugene when fresno outplayed oregon. Go watch the tape.
    Comment
    • Mac4Lyfe
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-04-09
      • 48369

      #142
      Michigan might be a lot better than I've thought of them. We'll have to wait for the Wisconsin game.
      Comment
      • Mac4Lyfe
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-04-09
        • 48369

        #143
        Originally posted by homie1975
        Same thing happened week one in eugene when fresno outplayed oregon. Go watch the tape.
        Yep, I saw it. Horrible reffing this last quarter. All one sided.

        Haener is flat out balling. He's seriously hurt and throwing the ball like Brett Favre. He is on GOAT mode. Please win this game and screw the refs.
        Comment
        • Mac4Lyfe
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-04-09
          • 48369

          #144
          Hell penetrating yeah. Fresno State takes the lead. UCLA fans are shocked. This kid went goat mode. One of the most incredible performances I've even seen. Unreal.
          Comment
          • homie1975
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-24-13
            • 15452

            #145
            Fresno st has now beaten UCLA 4 straight times and 3 in a row at the rose bowl.

            Emotion matters a lot in cfb.

            This is why it's so hard to go undefeated. U are every school's super bowl when you're favored over them.
            Comment
            • Mac4Lyfe
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-04-09
              • 48369

              #146
              I'm so glad they won. I hate when the refs are trying purposely to give the win to another team. They gifted UCLA 21 points in that 2nd half on unreal calls. That fumble was ridiculous. Kids forward progress was stopped and they just let UCLA rip the ball for a fumble. That whistle should have been blown a long time ago. Then they gave them 2 completions that were bobbles/drops. Love it when cheaters don't prosper.
              Comment
              • homie1975
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-24-13
                • 15452

                #147
                because of Rattler and the offensive weapons and the way they ended last year, the public still LOVES oklahoma and it will not end until they get clipped in a Big 12 tilt and i suspect it will happen on the road and maybe even twice.
                Comment
                • Mac4Lyfe
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-04-09
                  • 48369

                  #148
                  A lot of chirping from OU fans about how poor Rattler is playing. I expect there will be a lot of noise to play the backup more.
                  Comment
                  • homie1975
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-24-13
                    • 15452

                    #149
                    Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                    A lot of chirping from OU fans about how poor Rattler is playing. I expect there will be a lot of noise to play the backup more.
                    Not happening. Rattler is the team's thoroughbred and he's not getting pulled.

                    When they lose at k state or tcu or v iowa state or at baylor whatever, it will be due to the defense struggling like they did vs tulane. Mark my words. Mark them right now.
                    Comment
                    • homie1975
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-24-13
                      • 15452

                      #150
                      Oklahoma remains above Oregon in Today's Coaches Poll.

                      next up is AP
                      Comment
                      • homie1975
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-24-13
                        • 15452

                        #151
                        Oregon leapfrogs Oklahoma in AP. 3 and 4 respectively
                        Comment
                        • KVB
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 05-29-14
                          • 74817

                          #152
                          On K State +9 spread vs OK ST at the open already and will be probably be buying K State all week to fill the position.

                          Probably see 7.5s and 8's trading across the market, at least early on.

                          Comment
                          • homie1975
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-24-13
                            • 15452

                            #153
                            Originally posted by KVB
                            On K State +9 spread vs OK ST at the open already and will be probably be buying K State all week to fill the position.

                            Probably see 7.5s and 8's trading across the market, at least early on.

                            KVer it's a very tough spot for K-State going to Stillwater without senior stud skylar thompson. the backup will howard is a player but not quite the arm talent skylar has so i smell potential DD victory for okie state
                            Comment
                            • KVB
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 05-29-14
                              • 74817

                              #154
                              Originally posted by homie1975
                              KVer it's a very tough spot for K-State going to Stillwater without senior stud skylar thompson. the backup will howard is a player but not quite the arm talent skylar has so i smell potential DD victory for okie state
                              Nice Homie, good info and opinion there actually. I have little more of a technical look (as you might expect from me..lol)...

                              My stacking percentages forecast has OK ST winning with 30 or 31 points to K State's 23 or 24 points. A couple of "spot" style adjustments make it a trigger for sure.

                              The Fund (strategy) that triggered this play is one I consider to be the sharpest I post at SBR. I have years of posting records, comparing to the closer as well. It's not a market tracking Fund, it's just a sharp group of plays.

                              From a technical standpoint I think the pros will take K State down to +7.5. Gimme some time and I'll call up the results of this Fund and we'll look closer, I need to pay attention to my screens for a minute here.
                              Comment
                              • BigDofBA
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-30-09
                                • 19313

                                #155
                                The Big 12 had its best week of the year but my opinion of the league hasn’t changed.

                                As an OU fan, I think the defense just looks better because the offenses in the league are worse. The offense definitely isn’t as good.

                                OU has hit on several QBs in a row but I’m starting to get concerned about Rattler. He hasn’t progressed like I expected, seems to have a hard time reading defenses, and makes bad decisions with the football. This is kind of handcuffing Riley’s playcalling.

                                People just assume OU is going to drop 45 every game but I don’t think this is the same elite offense.

                                When OU loses to someone they shouldn’t like TCU or K-State, this will be why but fans will be baffled what happened.

                                Anyway…

                                1. SEC
                                2. Big 10
                                3. PAC-12
                                4. Big 12
                                5. ACC

                                What are the Big 12’s best wins.

                                Mountain West Nevada and Boise? A Boise team that doesn’t have a winning record?

                                Va. Tech? A team from the worst league?

                                It’s possible I was wrong about Stanford. If I was, I’ll admit it. I just can’t get over embarrassing losses to Maryland, Iowa, and Arkansas. Then barely beating Tulane, Missouri State, etc.
                                Last edited by BigDofBA; 09-21-21, 09:25 PM.
                                Comment
                                • homie1975
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-24-13
                                  • 15452

                                  #156
                                  The Pac 12 is hot trash. NO WAY they're a stronger league from top to bottom than the big 12. NO WAY
                                  Comment
                                  • svsooner
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-19-14
                                    • 707

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by homie1975
                                    KVer it's a very tough spot for K-State going to Stillwater without senior stud skylar thompson. the backup will howard is a player but not quite the arm talent skylar has so i smell potential DD victory for okie state
                                    Okie St. is weird the last couple of years. They seem to have a decently stout defense and a pedestrian offense, almost complete opposite of the "typical" previous Poke squads that had offense to light it up with anybody and a weak defense...
                                    Comment
                                    • homie1975
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 12-24-13
                                      • 15452

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by svsooner
                                      Okie St. is weird the last couple of years. They seem to have a decently stout defense and a pedestrian offense, almost complete opposite of the "typical" previous Poke squads that had offense to light it up with anybody and a weak defense...
                                      maybe they are focused on getting good D players in stillwater since norman is getting all of the good Offensive playmakers in the state of oklahoma (and of course texas)
                                      Comment
                                      • KVB
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-29-14
                                        • 74817

                                        #159
                                        Originally posted by KVB
                                        On K State +9 spread vs OK ST at the open already and will be probably be buying K State all week to fill the position.

                                        Probably see 7.5s and 8's trading across the market, at least early on...
                                        It stalled at 7.5 but now it's hitting 5.5.

                                        Bettors got aggressive.

                                        Comment
                                        • homie1975
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-24-13
                                          • 15452

                                          #160
                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                          It stalled at 7.5 but now it's hitting 5.5.

                                          Bettors got aggressive.

                                          If forced, the fave at -5.5 or lower might be worth a look for those who like to fade early to mid week steam
                                          Comment
                                          • KVB
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-29-14
                                            • 74817

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by homie1975
                                            If forced, the fave at -5.5 or lower might be worth a look for those who like to fade early to mid week steam
                                            Could very well be the bettors they are trying to suck in, they might need the action for some balance.

                                            Comment
                                            • KVB
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 05-29-14
                                              • 74817

                                              #162
                                              Originally posted by KVB
                                              ...The Fund (strategy) that triggered this play is one I consider to be the sharpest I post at SBR. I have years of posting records, comparing to the closer as well. It's not a market tracking Fund, it's just a sharp group of plays.

                                              From a technical standpoint I think the pros will take K State down to +7.5. Gimme some time and I'll call up the results of this Fund and we'll look closer, I need to pay attention to my screens for a minute here.
                                              Homie here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund with links to every play. Last season was a COVID season and 10 triggers did not play...

                                              Putting it in the extra box so as to not clog the thread, hopefully you can see the charts...

                                              Links...

                                              Here is the 2018 Summary...52-30-1 ATS for +18.73 UNITS; 50-18-15 vs. the close beating it by .63 points.
                                              Here is the 2019 Summary...60-52-1 ATS for +3.41 UNITS; 65-31-17 vs. the close beating it by .54 points.
                                              Here is the 2020 Summary...33-24-2 ATS for +6.24 UNITS; 38-11-10 vs. the close beating it by 1.05 points.

                                              That's a clean and cool 57.769% ATS not counting the pushes and beating the close 60% of the time, counting the ties, but that's a crude clsoer comparison as I do not revealy my values for different half points, a true clv, but you can see beating it by more than half a point of 260 plays isn't too shabby.

                                              The charts since 2018, all posted, units and closing line comparison running average...






                                              Here is 2021 so far...

                                              1 Unit Closing Beat BTC
                                              Record Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average
                                              153 3-Sep MICH ST +4.5 (-110) 0.91 3 Y 1.5
                                              173 4-Sep INDIANA +4 (-107) -1 3.5 Y 1
                                              119 18-Sep VTECH +3 (-110) -1 1.5 Y 1.5
                                              131 MINN +3 (-110) 0.91 2.5 Y 0.5
                                              179 SC +32 (-110) 0.91 31.5 Y 0.5
                                              305 24-Sep M TENN +3 (-110)
                                              361 25-Sep COLORADO +14 (-110)
                                              369 KANSAS ST +9 (-110)
                                              375 NAVY +20 (-104)
                                              415 CAL +7 (-110)
                                              Total 0.73 5-0-0 1


                                              So there's that to consider. Just a piece of the puzze but I said I would show you that part of the case for K State and there it is. That's only the 260 posted plays, I've been running that Fund for 15 years.

                                              I sing this song to this Fund every week...

                                              "If I stay with you, if my choice is wrong, I don't care at all.
                                              If I'm losing now, but I win later on, that's all I want..."




                                              Comment
                                              • BigDofBA
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 09-30-09
                                                • 19313

                                                #163
                                                TCU, who some people said was supposed to be good, just gave up 40+ to SMU and lost…
                                                Comment
                                                • homie1975
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-24-13
                                                  • 15452

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by BigDofBA
                                                  TCU, who some people said was supposed to be good, just gave up 40+ to SMU and lost…
                                                  Yes that one hurt. Patterson has lost his magic
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jtoler
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-17-13
                                                    • 30967

                                                    #165
                                                    sec is strong with normally lower teams now poking their heads through watch out for ole miss will give bama a run for their money. arkansas looking good too
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fred The Hammer
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-13-13
                                                      • 11578

                                                      #166
                                                      Iowa State sucks too. I don't know how they were favored over Iowa? Beat Northern Iowa by 6? I didn't even know NI played football? Not Div 1?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • homie1975
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-24-13
                                                        • 15452

                                                        #167
                                                        Originally posted by homie1975
                                                        KVer it's a very tough spot for K-State going to Stillwater without senior stud skylar thompson. the backup will howard is a player but not quite the arm talent skylar has so i smell potential DD victory for okie state
                                                        Comment
                                                        • homie1975
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-24-13
                                                          • 15452

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by Fred The Hammer
                                                          Iowa State sucks too. I don't know how they were favored over Iowa? Beat Northern Iowa by 6? I didn't even know NI played football? Not Div 1?
                                                          Freddy is that you in the pic?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • homie1975
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 12-24-13
                                                            • 15452

                                                            #169
                                                            Originally posted by Fred The Hammer
                                                            Iowa State sucks too. I don't know how they were favored over Iowa? Beat Northern Iowa by 6? I didn't even know NI played football? Not Div 1?
                                                            Freddy
                                                            if that's you in the pic, you look like one heckuva nice guy.

                                                            let me explain why Iowa State was favored by about 4 to 4.50 pts over iowa.

                                                            1. it was in Ames Iowa, their home stadium
                                                            2. Iowa state went 9-3 last year. two of their 3 losses were very close (by 3 at Okie St and by 6 in the B12 title gm v OU)
                                                            3. they brought back 20 starters from that team
                                                            4. it was extremely early in the season.

                                                            they deserved to be favored at home over Iowa and if the line was wrong the market would have steamed it to Even but that's not what happened, because before that game, on paper, Iowa St looked like a very good team based on the things I said above namely numbers 2 and 3.

                                                            Comment
                                                            • homie1975
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 12-24-13
                                                              • 15452

                                                              #170
                                                              Big 12 is 4-2 in bowls, will be 5-2 after K State beats up on LSU.

                                                              smashed miss state by 30
                                                              Beat Oregon
                                                              Beat highly ranked notre dame
                                                              Beat highly ranked ole miss

                                                              Much better conf than most here gave them credit for.

                                                              Pac 12? Hasn't won a bowl game since 2019 !!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • homie1975
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 12-24-13
                                                                • 15452

                                                                #171
                                                                Make that 5-2.

                                                                Obliterating the SEC.
                                                                Comment
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