[Matt Landes]

Football is back in full gear, so with a full college board and most of the NFL's first week in the books let's get the ball rolling on NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3....

Starting in the college ranks, the marquee matchup of the weekend pitted LSU against Texas in Austin and the Tigers did not disappoint their backers in a high-scoring affair that saw LSU beat its implied team total by almost two touchdowns. The transformation of the Tigers' offense to more of a run-pass option approach is thriving in the early going under Offensive Coordinator Steve Ensminger, Passing Game Coordinator Joe Brady and QB Joe Burrow, with LSU having racked up 100 points through two games. Coach O's bunch no longer appears to be a defensive wrecking ball hamstrung by an outdated offense, and that's worth monitoring as we see if anybody emerges to challenge Alabama's and Clemson's perches atop the college football totem pole.

In another development worth monitoring in the college ranks, it would've been difficult to fathom a more impressive performance by Kedon Slovis in his first start under center for USC. The true freshman dazzled to the tune of more than 11 yards per attempt, completing 85 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no turnovers. Watching the Trojans close their blowout win over Stanford on a 42-3 run after facing a 17-3 second-quarter deficit conjured memories of Sam Darnold's breakthrough 2016 campaign. Much like Darnold displaced Max Browne and sent an unproven Clay Helton's job security skyrocketing, in one night Slovis may have sounded the death knell for JT Daniels's tenure as the Trojans' QB and secured a life vest around Helton's tenure as the head coach. Slovis's coming out party made for a delightful way to watch a +3 ticket on Stanford go up in flames, despite how good the bet looked when the Cardinal got out to an early two-touchdown lead. As for the Cardinal and Gold, they're headed from the "bet against" list to "the drawer" for now, with Saturday's trip to Provo for a showdown with BYU giving us a sense of Slovis's moxie away from home. I expect good things, but it's going to take more than one spectacular night to buy back in on Helton's Horsemen.

Shifting our focus to the NFL, before the season even had a chance to kick off it was a week of schizophrenic Antonio Brown headlines across the Sports Mediaverse. As bettors, what's in it for us is that the market makes Brown's absence worth a point and a half based on the Raiders going from +1 at the time of Brown's release to +2.5 at press time for their Monday Night matchup with the Broncos to close out the season's first week. In other words, with Brown off to New England, good luck to the rest of the AFC, starting with the Dolphins in Week 2 - they were a 9.5-point home underdog to the Patriots on the lookahead line prior to New England landing Brown, and the Brown addition plus the subtraction of any morale Miami might have had going into their Week 1 no-show vs. the Ravens will make the betting market's activity interesting to follow for Patriots-Dolphins.

Getting into the Week 1 games themselves, some misleading final scores could open up opportunities for Week 2. Buffalo only beat the Jets by a point on the scoreboard, and the Bills would probably have even more Week 2 value had they lost the game, but the 5Dimes opener of Buffalo -1 (-125) at the Giants has been accepted. The Bills beat the Jets in first downs (23-17) and dominated them in yards per play (5.9-3.4), pulling out the win despite a -3 turnover differential. A similar level of dominance against a lesser opponent should result in a win by a bigger margin in their second game at MetLife Stadium in as many weeks, particularly if we see positive regression in the turnover department.

Washington and Carolina were impressive in defeat, with Washington's 6.7-6.1 yards per play edge over Philadelphia giving Jay Gruden's group reason for optimism despite blowing a 17-0 lead. The Panthers' loss to the Rams is also a tough pill to swallow considering their 5.4-4.8 yards per play advantage that got outweighed by a -2 turnover differential - this might go down as Carolina's only game of the season featuring 3 fumbles that were all recovered by the opposition.

Not as impressive in defeat was Jacksonville, with the loss of Nick Foles adding injury to insult. The sting of a 40-26 defeat and the early departure of the new franchise QB, however, was slightly exacerbated by a promising showing from the Jaguars' 2019 sixth-round draft pick, Gardner Minshew. Minshew's line of 22-for-25 and 11 yards per attempt gives at least some reason for hope, even if it came against some soft coverage late in the game from a Kansas City defense that's questionable even when it's trying. Minshew and the Jaguars' offense will be worth monitoring in Week 2 in Houston.

In one of the more surprising outcomes of the day, it was a nightmarish start to the season for a Browns franchise that's all too familiar with nightmarish Sundays. From Baker Mayfield getting sacked five times and throwing three interceptions to Cleveland committing 18 penalties and losing by 30 at home to the lowly regarded Titans, falling more than 5 touchdowns short of market expectation based on the closing line, it was an ominous start to the Browns' most promising season in recent memory.

Fortunately, based on our conversation in last week's thread it was a more auspicious start to the season for the Point Blank Community than it was for Browns backers.

As a final housekeeping note, results from the Players Talk forum experiment are not yet conclusive, so in the near future we'll tally up any dimpled chads and make the call on whether this or the previous forum landing page is a better bet moving forward. Either way, let's keep the conversation going as the quest for edges goes on....

[Matt Landes]

And with Lynn Swann out as USC's AD, a breakthrough by Slovis stands to be even more of a lifesaver for Helton after the AD that hired him (Pat Haden), and now the AD that chose to retain him when there was every reason to make a coaching change, are no longer on campus.

[deltonmyers]

You gave me something to think about with the Bills because the first teaser I fired on this week was NYG +8.5/Chic +7.5. I can get Bills ML at -125 or the -1 at -120, so maybe I try to hit both bets.

[Matt Landes]

You gave me something to think about with the Bills because the first teaser I fired on this week was NYG +8.5/Chic +7.5. I can get Bills ML at -125 or the -1 at -120, so maybe I try to hit both bets.

I thought the market would make more of a move on the Bills and they still might hit -3, but can’t fault the Giants on a teaser, especially with the value that Bears +7.5 holds after the line adjustment based on last night’s showing by the Broncos.

Since the favorite has flipped for Week 2 in Denver, I’m eyeing the Broncos on a teaser. Extra rest for Chicago/short rest for Denver isn’t ideal, but road teams have struggled in early-season trips to Mile High elevation as they still work toward peak condition, and with the lowest total on the board by far it’s shaping up to be a low-variance setting.

[Matt Landes]

2-MINUTE DRILL

Week 2, also known as "Overreaction Week" in the NFL, has been an annual springboard for many a bettor's path to a profitable season. While nothing in this endeavor comes too easily, it almost becomes nostalgic thinking back to winning Week 2 wagers driven by market overreactions, such as Miami over the Jets last season, Denver over Dallas in 2017 and the Rams over Seattle in 2016.

Alas, as clearly as some Week 2 games have jumped off the screen in recent years - though perhaps not quite as clearly in the moment as confirmation bias would make it seem in hindsight - this Week 2 card is shaping up to make it a relatively light week for the portfolio.

A slimmer portfolio than anticipated can be disappointing at first blush, but when that thought strikes it's important to keep in mind our biggest edge of all: the oddsmakers have to post lines for every game; as bettors we get to pick our spots. "No edge, no action" may not be the world's most exciting mantra, but the more it can resonate, the more likely we are to succeed over time.

There's nothing wrong with chalking up most of the card as a "watch and learn" opportunity - and where that becomes exciting is the thought of the edges we can uncover by objectively watching with a keen eye, unaffected by the biases and emotions that naturally come with rooting in a bet, putting ourselves a step ahead of the market when it comes to Week 3 and beyond.

That said, of course we're still human and it can do a lot of good for the soul as well as the bankroll to have some action within reason at stake on a Sunday slate. So while it doesn't feel like quite as enticing of a Week 2 as in years past, whenever there are 16 games on the board there are edges to be had. On that note, we dig in....

BUFFALO -2 at GIANTS

This one was touched on in the thread kick-off post so I'll try not to belabor the point too much, particularly after the market saw a little too eye-to-eye with the notion that the Bills were better than the scoreboard indicated in their 1-point win over the Jets. When you out-gain your opponent by 2.5 yards per play, that's impressive. When you win despite a -3 turnover differential - something only 10% of teams accomplish, according to Steve Fezzik on this week's Even Money Podcast - that's also impressive.

One factor keeping this line below -3 seems to be that it's Buffalo's second straight road game. Whale Capper noted in the Deep Dive podcast that Week 2 teams in their second straight road game historically fall 1.5 standard deviations short of market expectation, and while he went the extra step to call out that it would be a mistake to throw the Bills into this category without hesitation, some of the trend players in the marketplace may not have done their due diligence. For starters, for the trip from Buffalo to MetLife Stadium is minimal by NFL standards. On top of that, it'll be the Bills' second game at MetLife in as many weeks - when this game concludes, Buffalo will have played more games at MetLife Stadium this season than either of the two teams that call it home. HFA would often be more accurately described as "road team disadvantage," and there's not much of one for the Bills in this game.

The market has made a big move toward Buffalo based on the lookahead line of Giants -1.5, and that is cause for pause - but upon further review it's more of a temporary stop light than a blinking "abort" button. Crossing through 1 and zero, it's essentially a 2.5-point swing through non-key numbers. Considering Week 1 lookaheads are particularly volatile since they get posted before we've seen the teams play a game, plus an upgrade for Buffalo and a downgrade for the Giants based on the teams' Week 1 performances, the line move checks out.

Playing in the same stadium as last week, and against inferior opposition, anything resembling the Bills' YPP dominance last week or positive regression in the TO department should result in a bigger margin of victory this time around.

MIAMI +19 vs. NEW ENGLAND
When we think of "numbers not teams," if there's one game on the board that fits the mold of the previous season's Week 2 overreaction winners referenced above, this is it. But given the teams involved, this is one of those bets that could go down as the dumbest idea of all time. So why take the plunge?

This is a difficult number to fathom after Baltimore kicked off Week 1 in Miami as a 7-point favorite. Let's say we give the Ravens a 2-point power ratings bump for imposing their will, with a 3-point downgrade for the Dolphins. So if they played the game again today, factoring in significant adjustments based on last week's performance, the line would be Baltimore -12. Are we now to think the Patriots are a full TD better than the Ravens on a neutral field, as the spread of 19 points implies?

Looking at it another way, if we give Miami 2 points for a subpar HFA, this line would be New England -21 on a neutral field. Dallas is hosting the Dolphins in Week 3 and the lookahead line at press time is Cowboys -16.5. Giving Dallas the standard 3-point HFA implies a line of Cowboys -13.5 on a neutral field against Miami. So the Patriots are supposedly more than a full TD better than Dallas?

From a sheer numbers standpoint, this line appears to be off by about a field goal. And that's without factoring in New England's historical issues with early-season trips to the heat and humidity of South Florida - the game day forecast currently calls for a high of about 90 degrees on Sunday, with 70%-plus humidity, wind reaching the teens, and the possibility of thunderstorms.

A game being "mis-priced" by this many points is almost unheard of in the modern NFL marketplace, with data and analytics acting as such a driving force. But of course there's an underlying reason to use air quotes when mentioning any "mis-pricing" for this game - who could be surprised to turn it on with 2 minutes to go and see the Patriots running out the clock with a 35-0 lead? Just like we're human as bettors, so too are the Dolphins as players. There might not be a floor in terms of the impact their organizational lack of morale can have on the field. This absolutely keeps the wager amount in check, but seeing as they're professional athletes the +19 is enough to make a wager, registering as a "4" for me on the "4-5-6" Malinsky scale.

It might be the worst bet of my life. But if I have any faith in the numbers, I have to think it also might be a bet worth making.

PICK OF THE WEEK: TEASER - DETROIT +7.5 vs. CHARGERS; DENVER +8 vs. CHICAGO

Any value on a straight wager on the Lions has long since been cleaned out, with the likes of forum contributor SportsHec8 jumping on the opener of +3, but with the line currently sitting at 1.5 Detroit looks ripe for the picking as a teaser candidate.

While this first leg of the teaser is on the Lions, it's largely in play because of expected limitations for the Chargers. Prior to Week 2 lines going up, we already figured they'd be without two Pro Bowlers on offense in tackle Russell Okung and RB Melvin Gordon. We've since learned that burgeoning TE Hunter Henry, newly returned from an ACL tear that took away his 2018 season, will also be sidelined for the foreseeable future after suffering a fracture in his other knee in a Week 1 win over the Colts. And rounding out the position groups aside from iron man Philip Rivers, WR Mike Williams is very questionable with a knee injury also sustained in last Sunday's victory.

Steve Fezzik and R.J. Bell made a strong point on the Dream Preview podcast that while these aren't cluster injuries depleting the Chargers of too much depth at any one position, the fact that the offense is so banged up across the board can have a compounding effect - an Offensive Coordinator can adjust to being shorthanded in the backfield, or on the O-line, or at receiver, but with every position group aside from QB being compromised, Chargers OC Ken Whisenhunt may have his hands tied come Sunday in Detroit.

The Chargers being the Chargers, their laundry list of injuries isn't limited to the offensive side of the ball. Already without All-Pro safety Derwin James until at least November, they placed starting CB Trevor Williams on IR on Wednesday and have listed CB Michael Davis as doubtful with a hamstring injury suffered in Week 1. That leaves the secondary vulnerable against a Matthew Stafford-led passing attack for Detroit that averaged more than 8.5 yards per attempt on the road last Sunday in Arizona. Any passing numbers compiled against the Cardinals should be taken with a grain of salt, but with a secondary this beat up the Chargers have to be concerned about matching up on the road with the likes of Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson.

In the second leg of the teaser, there's no shortage of narratives in the lead-up to Bears-Broncos.

Road teams struggle in early-season trips to Denver and its Mile High elevation, with the thinner air having an increased effect as visiting players are still working their way into peak condition. Advantage: Broncos.

Vic Fangio's previous stint came with Chicago as the Bears' DC, so he knows the defense - not to mention Mitch Trubisky's limitations on the other side of the ball - about as anyone outside of the Chicago organization. Advantage: Broncos.

Denver got saddled with the late Monday Night game in Week 1 and faces a short turnaround to Sunday's kickoff, while Chicago had the benefit of hosting the season opener last Thursday and comes into Week 2 with extended rest. Advantage: Bears.

Add it all up and I make it a situational stalemate. I also see it as a stalemate more or less on the field. Pinnacle opened this line last Sunday at Denver -1. This was after the Bears' clunker to start the season, so the only substantive evidence to back any line movement was the Broncos putting up a clunker of their own in the Week 1 finale. But a 2-point downgrade to the Broncos, as implied by the line move through zero and up to Chicago -2, seems somewhat excessive. With neither team having impressed in Week 1 and the chance to take the short home underdog up through 3 and 7 in a coin-flip game with the lowest total on the board, there's value in taking Denver to keep it within 7.


"COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES” - BEER OF THE WEEK



Beer: Duck Duck Gooze (2019)
Brewery: The Lost Abbey (San Marcos, CA)
Style: Belgian-Style Gueuze
ABV: 7%

To this day, it's still common to hear broadcasters to refer to the Los Angeles Chargers as the "San Diego" Chargers. While that has a much better ring to it, it's also a reminder that the San Diego Chargers are a thing of the past. Fortunately for San Diego, world-class beer continues to be a part of the city's present. And in the case of a beer like The Lost Abbey's latest batch of Duck Duck Gooze, excellent beer made locally promises to endure well into the future.

An homage to Belgian brewing traditions, DDG is a unique blend of young and old barrel-aged beers released once every three years by The Lost Abbey. The 2019 result is unforgettably nuanced: funky, dry, citrusy, effervescent yet soft, with just a little salinity to round things out.

Perhaps best of all, like many of the greatest things in life, DDG is famous for getting better with time. Given how good it tastes fresh that's awfully fun to imagine, as is the thought for native San Diegans of the Chargers one day returning to their rightful home and maybe even winning a Lombardi Trophy. Should that ever happen, DDG is on the short list of homegrown bottles worthy of commemorating such an occasion. And should it not, one can always toast to the dream.

Rating: 4.75 out of 5

[sallymott]

"Over reaction" week 2!!! But i do like this trend: Teams opening the season with back-to-back road games have not fared well in week-2, covering just 1 of the last 15 times:

I am laying the points (-3) with the titans and the bengals -1.5.
good luck

[Matt Landes]

After an entertaining end to Week 2 in Atlanta, it's time to get the ball rolling on Week 3 with a new thread live here.