1. #1
    Matt Landes
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    After another preseason of position battles and a rash of unfortunate (and quite possibly preventable) injuries, not to mention a stunning retirement with landscape-altering ramifications, NFL games that count are just around the corner. Week 1 in the NFL is unlike any other in that the lines have been up since mid-April, so by this point there isnít much meat left on the bone in terms of of uncovered edges. But that doesnít mean an actionable edge or two canít be found in whatís left of the lead-up to kickoff, so letís roll up the sleeves and see what we can do.

    And with most of CFB Week 1 in the books weíre one step closer to midseason form, unless you're Tennessee or Iowa State....

    Digging deeper into the college ranks, one angle worth monitoring closely is Alabamaís potential for first half dominance, which took the market until the Tideís 11th game to catch up to in 2018 based on Alabama covering the first half spread in each of its first 10 games. To start the 2019 season, the oddsmakers didnít shade the first half line much in Alabamaís direction against Duke - they were correct in making that decision, but the same approach very well may not be the way to line Alabama first halves moving forward. That's because, while the Tide failed to cover that first half line of -21, the absence of four players suspended for the early going won't be a factor on an ongoing basis. Redshirt freshman Jerome Ford won't be getting regular carries and thus won't be losing fumbles as he did on the second drive against the Blue Devils. Nick Saban likely won't settle for negative expected value field goal attempts like he did on the following drive, sending out his true freshman kicker for his first career attempt (and miss) from 49 yards out, when Najee Harris and Brian Robinson are manning the backfield. Even with their uneven start to the season opener, in the first half the Tide racked up three times as many first downs as Duke and more than twice as many yards per pass attempt. If Alabama continues to be a first-half wrecking crew and the market is a step slow to adjust, we might as use a rising Tide to lift all bankrolls.

    And longtime readers might not be surprised to be getting a USC take from a USC grad, so here goes: It's time to fade the Trojans if the market hints at even a remotely rosy outlook on them. With QB J.T. Daniels out for the season with a torn ACL and meniscus, in steps true freshman QB Kedon Slovis for a ringer of an upcoming schedule: vs. Stanford, at BYU, vs. Utah, at Washington, at Notre Dame. In other words, it's surprisingly possible that USC doesn't win another game until Arizona comes to the Coliseum on Oct. 19. While this would force Lynn Swann's hand to finally bring in a coach capable of steering the program in the right direction, it might also mean a window of opportunity to bet on Trojan opponents in the coming weeks. When you get outgained in both yards per pass and yards per rush at home against a team of Fresno State's caliber, to see optimism in the current state of USC football may require some squinting. It's tough to say where the line will open for the Trojans' Week 2 showdown with Stanford given the unknowns around Slovis, but if we get word K.J. Costello is a ďgoĒ and the Cardinal aren't favored by at least a field goal, The Farm will become part of the portfolio.

    As a quick housekeeping note, Iím experimenting with moving our weekly threads to the Players Talk Forum in an effort to keep them as discoverable as possible on this site and thus as easy as possible to find for the Point Blank Community, which is always welcoming to new members. For any new readers who want to know what the Point Blank Community is all about, check out our 2019 football kickoff thread and SBRís Point Blank archive.

    Now letís get to business and go find some edgesÖ.
    Last edited by Matt Landes; 09-01-19 at 11:11 PM.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: SportsHec8

  2. #2
    Hendrixfan
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    Appreciate it Matt. Being more discoverable is a double edged sword, if it opens the door to more of the element that turns so many forum discussions into a cesspool. This post was buried under many others, and I'd hope looking for it doesn't mean we all have to buy new shoes each time we wade in.

  3. #3
    deltonmyers
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    Hey Matt - what do you think of Stanford +2.5? Feels like it's worth a wager.

  4. #4
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltonmyers View Post
    Hey Matt - what do you think of Stanford +2.5? Feels like it's worth a wager.
    The way the market is moving and hindsight being 20/20, Stanford +2.5 was absolutely worth a wager. I didnít know enough about Costelloís backup to be quick on the trigger, and the fast-moving market seems a little too aligned on the anti-USC sentiment. Looks like Iíll end up pulling for the Trojans this Saturday to set up near-future opportunities to fade Heltonís bunch.

  5. #5
    sallymott
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    Texas State +7

    i like Texas state in their home opener versus Wyoming on Saturday (9/7). State is coming off a 41-7 lost at A&M but coming home now and Wyoming coming in "fat and sassy" off the upset of Mizzu AT Mizzu as a 17 point dog!!! It is gonna be tough for Wyoming to match the intensity of Texas state IMO......

    Any comments?

    Thanks and as always....Good luck
    sallymott

  6. #6
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltonmyers View Post
    Hey Matt - what do you think of Stanford +2.5? Feels like it's worth a wager.
    And with Costello confirmed out, Stanford +3 has reappeared for the taking. The absence of standout LT Walker Little puts a damper in the wager amount as it gives the Trojansí front seven a better chance to shine as the strength of their defense, so I make Stanford +3 a ď4Ē on the 4/5/6 Malinsky wagering scale.

    The Costello/Little news brings natural inclinations toward the under, but the market has cleaned that out pretty well. On the bright side, a lower total increases the relative value of getting 3 points with The Farm.

  7. #7
    sallymott
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    Nfl week 1

    Week #1 Away Division Dogs move to 12-2-1 ATS (86%) since 2014 with Packers outright win. Four more this week: (Ralph Michaels)

    NYG
    Bills
    Redskins
    i guess you can count Denver -1? (it opened at +1)

    good luck
    sallymott



  8. #8
    Matt Landes
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    2-MINUTE DRILL

    Football is always in the air, both literally and figuratively, at this time of year. But this year in particular, it feels special on a personal level.

    For my wife and me, the past week has served as one final "summer" getaway before the joyous grind known as football season begins. One of the highlights of the getaway was a rental car equipped with SiriusXM, which is to say the dial rarely strayed from E Street Radio. Listening to the likes of the legendary Sept. 1978 stint at the Capitol Theatre in Passaic, NJ - Bruce Springsteen's team just released the revered Sept. 19 concert - conjured notions of "time and place" that can't help but spark fond memories of Dave.

    To have E Street Radio as the soundtrack for beautiful driving through upstate New York and into Vermont was special enough, but to hear the best of The Boss with one of our destinations being Lawson's Finest Liquids - the maker of Dave's very favorite beer as I recall (more on that later) - took it over the top. So while basking in the sunshine of the immaculate new Lawson's taproom in Waitsfield, VT, Dave was at the forefront of our minds even more than usual.

    As a tribute to Dave and the band that brought him so much joy and inspiration, which he in turn passed on to the Point Blank Community, let's cue up an eponymous jukebox selection for the read ahead by turning to one of many memorable performances Bruce & Co. delivered 41 years ago on Springsteen's home turf, this one coming from the magical night of Sept. 19 at the Capitol:



    Shifting gears to the betting board, as noted in the thread kickoff NFL Week 1 is a unique beast to tackle come game week since the lines have been up for the better part of five months and there's not much meat left on the bone in terms of edges that haven't been hammered into spreads and totals. But by broadening our horizons, some value still remains to be had.

    TEASER - BUFFALO + 8.5 at JETS; CAROLINA +8 vs. RAMS

    Both the Bills and Panthers could have been had at +3 this week so the relative lack of line value calls for a reduced wager amount, but I still see enough of an edge to get in play here.

    With Bills-Jets showing the second-lowest total on the Week 1 board, the AFC East showdown should be a low-variance affair that increases the relative value of each point we get in crossing up through 3 and 7. Getting more than a TD in a game it wouldn't be surprising to see Buffalo win makes for a playable first leg.

    The second leg is where we seem to be getting a lot of value. In a bit of elementary "football science," as Dave would call it, Carolina's front 7 should have its way with a Rams offensive line featuring new faces in new places and seemingly more questions than answers. Factor in the likelihood of some rust for Jared Goff after not seeing any preseason action, and a 3-16-1 ATS run in Week 1 for the previous season's Super Bowl loser per Steve Fezzik, and the Rams as a road favorite against a team of Carolina's caliber seems fishy. The wrong team may be favored here, making the Panthers the play as the home underdog with enough bite to win outright.

    Le'VEON BELL RUSH YARDS UNDER

    As of press time the full Week 1 props menu isn't yet available, but based on Bell's season-long rush yards total at 1,125.5 shaded to the Under at 5Dimes, I expect the his Week 1 total to open at about 70.5 and make it a "go" down to 65.5 at -115.

    There's an understandable excitement for what a dynamic playmaker like Bell can bring to the Jets' offense, but especially in the early going I expect Bell to do a greater share of his damage through the air compared to what we saw during his time with the Steelers. In the ground game, Bell will be playing behind an inferior O-line relative to the one that paved the way for him in Pittsburgh. Talent aside, Bell's uniquely patient running style will be new to his blockers - the unit's chemistry will take time to fully mesh, and it may be more time than people are expecting considering Bell didn't see any preseason action and the Bills' front 7 is no slouch.


    PICK OF THE WEEK: ARIZONA/DETROIT PUNTS OVER

    As with the Bell prop, the punts line for Cardinals vs. Lions is unavailable at press time. I expect the game to feature double-digit punts and make it a "go" up to 9.5 at -115.

    The heart of the handicap here is the anticipation of an up-tempo but inefficient Arizona offense. We know Kliff Kingsbury likes tempo, but we don't yet know if he and Kyler Murray can operate efficiently at the NFL level. In their debut, I'm willing to bet against it.

    Detriot's offense doesn't look like it'll be anything to write home about, so I foresee the Lions holding up their end of the bargain and getting the total punt count to 10+, making the punts Over an alternative angle to get in play with the best of the number gone on the full game Under.

    "COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK



    Beer: Sip of Sunshine
    Brewery: Lawson's Finest Liquids (Waitsfield, VT)
    Style: Double IPA
    ABV: 8%

    A Malinsky favorite, Sip of Sunshine is a staple well known to the beer geeks within the Point Blank Community. It's worthy of an annual placement in these parts, and having enjoyed it fresh from the source just yesterday, I'm making in the Week 1 selection for 2019.

    Dave and I have documented records of our love for SoS so I won't belabor the tasting notes other than a reminder that it packs a combination of absolutely sublime citrusy, tropical and floral notes with a light mouthfeel that combines with the aroma and flavor to hide the 8% ABV exceptionally well.

    Lawson's is spot on in calling it a "tropical vacation in a glass," and from my vantage point yesterday as shown in the photo above, any 12-oz. glass consisting of 6 oz. of SoS is a glass half full.

    Rating: 4.5 out of 5
    Last edited by Matt Landes; 09-06-19 at 08:32 PM.

  9. #9
    thezbar
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    Long time, first time. I remember Dave from the radio waves. God bless this soul.

    I'm looking at Usc First half Saturday night. Line is jumping betwwen -1/2 and 2 points. The university has always been able to draw in talent. With the future in balance I can see a strong effort with the better athletes as the sun sets into the western sky. Losing Daniels may be a positive for the running game. He was never the same quarterback after his concussion last season. First half betting avoids any half time adjustments. Don't trust Helton!

    Earlier in the afternoon I'm planning a scouting trip to the game across town. My numbers have Bruins 36 / Aztecs 19 however my model is still in the adjustment phase. I'll report any worthy observations next week. G.L. everyone.
    Last edited by thezbar; 09-06-19 at 11:05 PM. Reason: spelling

  10. #10
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by thezbar View Post
    Long time, first time. I remember Dave from the radio waves. God bless this soul.

    I'm looking at Usc First half Saturday night. Line is jumping betwwen -1/2 and 2 points. The university has always been able to draw in talent. With the future in balance I can see a strong effort with the better athletes as the sun sets into the western sky. Losing Daniels may be a positive for the running game. He was never the same quarterback after his concussion last season. First half betting avoids any half time adjustments. Don't trust Helton!

    Earlier in the afternoon I'm planning a scouting trip to the game across town. My numbers have Bruins 36 / Aztecs 19 however my model is still in the adjustment phase. I'll report any worthy observations next week. G.L. everyone.
    Welcome to the conversation!

    1H is the only way I could look to get in on USC based on a consistent theme of strong starts and sputtering finishes under Helton, so while I wonít be joining you in this wager I like the process behind it.

    Please do keep us posted on any noteworthy developments in the UCLA game. The Bruins showed a positive trajectory to close out Chip Kellyís first season, but that did not carry over into the 2019 opener at Cincinnati. Letís see if the QB play improves.

  11. #11
    SportsHec8
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    Hey guys, built a CFL model. Got 6 plays for tomorrow (has 2 today).

    https://twitter.com/sh8model/status/...819649025?s=21

  12. #12
    SportsHec8
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    Here are my model’s plays for this week! 0-1 to start (stupid Nagy) but looking forward to a big weekend

    https://twitter.com/sh8model/status/...004423168?s=21

  13. #13
    SportsHec8
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    I posted my breakdown of the packers bears box score.

    Thr common criticism was of thr bears QB today. But the reality is Nagy had 53 drop backs and 12 runs in a one score game. Absolute insanity.

    Don’t matter who your QB is, you need balance. But if your QB isn’t a top 10 guy, even more so!

    https://twitter.com/sh8model/status/...195038720?s=21

  14. #14
    Matt Landes
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    With the obvious caveat that 85% completion rate at 12.5 YPA is unsustainable, it might not be too soon to wonder if J.T. Daniels has played his final snap at a Trojan. Through one half of football, Kedon Slovis appears to be bursting onto the scene in a major way.

  15. #15
    Matt Landes
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    Le'Veon Bell rush yards Under has gone into pocket at 66.5 -120. Cardinals punts Over has been tough to find a line for, but a few more hours remain for shopping on that one.

  16. #16
    Pinoy-T-X
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    I saw this just now, Matt. Good job man. Keep up the good work!

  17. #17
    Matt Landes
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinoy-T-X View Post
    I saw this just now, Matt. Good job man. Keep up the good work!
    Thanks - for a head start on NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3, the new week's thread is now live here.

  18. #18
    Hendrixfan
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    A nice fist week Matt. Good job.

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