[Matt Landes]

With Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger going down in Week 2 and Adam Vinatieri missing two more PATs and reportedly mulling retirement, the NFL might be missing a trio of Hall of Famers come next Sunday.

If Vinatieri does indeed retire, the Colts don't stand to miss out on much based in his performance through two weeks - not that Vinatieri, at 46 years old, has anything whatsoever to be embarrassed about - but the ramifications will loom large should Brees or Roethlisberger miss extended time. The path to a playoff run may have just become less cluttered for the rest of the league.

But it's not all bad news if you enjoy watching future Hall of Famers. While it's too early to get too serious about pondering Patrick Mahomes's potential future in Canton, he sure looked the part for a spectacular sequence in Oakland when passing for 278 yards and 4 touchdowns...in the second quarter.

The sky continues to be the limit for Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, and based on what we saw in Week 2 the arrow also appears to be pointing up for these teams relative to expectation entering today's games:

- Jacksonville: Despite losing the turnover battle and trotting out a rookie sixth-round draft pick for his first career start on the road at a heavily favored division rival, the Jaguars were a 2-point conversion in the final moments from winning at Houston. That can happen when you win yards per play by a decisive 4.8 to 4.2. Gardner Minshew has a few things to clean up - see: three fumbles and four sacks - but he acquitted himself well after entering the game as a major question mark. By completing 70 percent of his passes at 6.5 yards per attempt with no interceptions, and also rushing for 56 yards on six carries, Minshew gives Jacksonville some promise as a dual threat quarterback in the absence of Nick Foles.

- Dallas: The Cowboys may have gone -1 in the turnover department and spotted Washington the game's first touchdown, but by dominating the yards per play battle by a whopping 7.3 to 4.6, Dallas still covered with little doubt in another impressive showing for Kellen Moore's offense.

- San Francisco: Two road games in two weeks to start the season? No problem. By destroying Cincinnati both on the scoreboard and in the box score - the 49ers outgunned the Bengals by three and a half yards per play - at least some of the concern after an unremarkable Week 1 win at Tampa Bay has been alleviated.

Of course, there are two sides to every coin. This week's shining examples to counterbalance the good performances:

- Tennessee: After the Titans looked like world beaters in Cleveland last Sunday, their home opener may have been the reality check of the week. The beneficiaries of Vinatieri's missed PATs and a +2 turnover differential, that Tennessee still lost at home to the Luck-less Colts indicates work remains to be done before the franchise turns any kind of a meaningful corner.

- Miami: Enough said. Essentially doubled up in yards per play, and -4 in turnovers that we can't just attribute to fumble luck - it's now two straight games to start the season in which both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen have thrown interceptions - what never really looked like Fitzmagic is on the fast track to Fitztragic.

Nothing has gone into pocket yet for Week 3, but with some initial Week 2 learnings filed away it may not be too long before the trigger gets pulled, particularly with a few of the NFC's elite making the Week 3 board a bit of a "tease" at first glance.

And while this week's kickoff message focuses on the professional ranks, CFB remains ripe for opportunity and welcome in the comments section as our conversation continues over the course of the week. Now let's roll up our sleeves and go find some edges....

[SportsHec8]

Nice recap of the week!

Niners baby!

[SportsHec8]

Was playing with Teddy B vs D Brees numbers last night. I calculated the offense will produce about 22% less passing yards and take on 50% more sacks. He will be able to run a tad better (14 YPG). Don’t see turnovers increasing much. So it amounts to a 5.8pt downgrade, rounding it up to 6

[Matt Landes]

Was playing with Teddy B vs D Brees numbers last night. I calculated the offense will produce about 22% less passing yards and take on 50% more sacks. He will be able to run a tad better (14 YPG). Don’t see turnovers increasing much. So it amounts to a 5.8pt downgrade, rounding it up to 6

Thanks for sharing. And with Big Ben out for the year, it’ll be interesting to see the effect of the downgrade to Mason Rudolph in Pittsburgh, although the 49ers' loss of LT Joe Staley puts a damper on any anti-Steelers sentiment this week.

[deltonmyers]

I agree with some good looking teaser options this week. I did already play GB -1.5/Min -2. I also like Jacksonville up to +7.5 on Thursday and Atlanta +8.5.

[Matt Landes]

I agree with some good looking teaser options this week. I did already play GB -1.5/Min -2. I also like Jacksonville up to +7.5 on Thursday and Atlanta +8.5.

In a good way, it'll be difficult to narrow this down to two teams for Friday's 2-Minute Drill. With Jacksonville going on Thursday, if they come through on any teaser tickets there could be some good middle opportunities for the second leg on Sunday.

[jakedittler]

Dave was very high on Rudolph while at Oklahoma st. He has all the talent, and tools needed I believe to be a NFL QB. At 6’ 5”, 236, he surely fits the profile. I loved the pick 2 years ago. Even if Ben didn’t. But what did he expect as he talked openly about retirement that previous season? They still have a solid o line, and some playmakers. But losing Bell, Brown and now Ben all in one year will mean a steep learning curve. The good news is with Luck gone, I see two wild card spots for the taking. The competition being a Mariotta led titans. Minshew led Jax, and Allen led Buffalo. None of those scream way better. I fully believe Pittsburgh makes the playoffs and will be looking for some decent odds. Pittsburgh making the playoffs was a Fezz 2 star -115 preseason. So now at plus money I’m buying. Rudolph is the future and I believe we saw the last game for Ben in a Steelers uniform.

[jakedittler]

I left out the Browns. I’m just not ready to believe the hype. But they can be in the mix. Still not a great group of teams.

[Matt Landes]

I left out the Browns. I’m just not ready to believe the hype. But they can be in the mix. Still not a great group of teams.

First and foremost, great to hear from you Jake. The consensus in the betting and fantasy markets seems to be that there’s reason to be optimistic about Rudolph, and I love your callback to Dave’s evaluation of Rudolph in college.

While I can envision a bright future for Rudolph as a Steeler - and it’s even brighter with a head coach on the sidelines who understands how to manage a game - I’d need a pretty big plus price to buy the Steelers as a playoff team. 0-2 and quite possibly going on 0-3 is a big hole to dig out of, and even though Buffalo might not be great, they’ll be 3-0 if they take care of business at home vs. the Bengals on Sunday. That gives the Bills a monster edge over Pittsburgh in playoff probability.

I didn’t catch the Browns omission at first glance, and I don’t fault you for it, but if Mariota and Minshew are mentioned as Wild Card competition, it does take effort for me not to take umbrage at the lack of any mention of Philip Rivers and the Chargers.

NE-KC-BAL sure look like they’re on the fast track for seeds 1-2-3, but stranger things have happened and even if it holds true, it’s looking wide open for spots 4-5-6 in the AFC.

[jjgold]

[Matt Landes]

2-MINUTE DRILL

Thank goodness the first wave of byes isn't until week. Even with all 32 teams in action this week, it has the feel of a short board. That can happen when it's Week 3 and half a dozen QBs are in line for their first starts of the season, with two replacement QBs taking the field as underdogs of 3+ TDs.

There may be no shortage of uncertainty on the Week 3 slate, but at least it's a full slate. Now's the time to take advantage of some edges on our last full board until the week of Thanksgiving....

CINCINNATI TEAM TOTAL UNDER 19.5

If you're following forum contributor SportsHec8 on Twitter - and if you aren't, you should be - chances are you're already in on this.

It's a little early to put too much stock into DVOA, but it's also no surprise to see the Bengals ranked 29th in offensive efficiency. After an impressive showing in defeat in Seattle to kick off the season, Cincinnati couldn't muster 5 yards per play against a less-than-imposing San Francisco defense in the Bengals' home opener last Sunday - and that's despite facing soft coverage while trailing by 3+ TDs for almost the entire second half.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo comes in having held the Jets to a meager 3.4 YPP and the Giants to a pedestrian 5.6 YPP. While these numbers didn't come against strong offenses, they did come in consecutive road games to begin the season. Returning to Orchard Park for their home opener with a 2-0 record and the crowd on their side, against a suspect Cincinnati offense, it could be a big day for the Bills' stout defense. That should result in a suppressed scoreboard output for the Bengals.

CLEVELAND +3.5 VS. RAMS

With a full position in pocket on the Under for the Browns' regular-season win total, as detailed in the 2019 football preview, I didn't expect to bet on Cleveland to cover many, if any, point spreads this season. But I also didn't expect to see this number based on what we've seen so far this season. While the Browns haven't proven anything yet in 2019, neither have the Rams.

Widely expected to be an offensive juggernaut once again this season, the Rams haven't looked as impressive as their 57 points scored through two weeks would indicate, going largely untested against a putrid Panthers secondary and a beleaguered Brees-less Saints team for most of last week's NFC title game rematch. Despite a myriad of pass-catching weapons, Jared Goff has the passing game ranking below average according to DVOA. The Rams do register as the league's best rush offense through two weeks according to DVOA, and while the eye test indicates the O-line can be vulnerable, they'll probably need need an elite ground game if they're going to win by a margin under the lights in Cleveland against a start-studded defensive line led by Myles Garrett.

The Browns haven't exactly impressed either, getting blown out at home by the Titans in Week 1 and breezing to a comfortable MNF win over the remnants of the Jets' roster. But when you out-gain any NFL opponent by 2 full yards per play en route to a 20-point road win, barring injury I struggle to see grounds for a downgrade as implied by the line reopening north of the consensus Rams -2.5 prior to MNF.

Doing a little number crunching, if we flip home field advantage using the current line of 3.5, accounting for a slightly subpar Rams HFA this line would have the Rams favored by about 9 at the Coliseum. That's a full TD more than the closing line against New Orleans last week, and the market has not downgraded the Saints by a full TD in light of Brees's injury. I can't buy that the Browns in their current state are worse than the Saints without Brees. That lands me on Cleveland, with +3.5 being a "go" up to the widely available -115 at press time.

​PICK OF THE WEEK: TEASER - GREEN BAY -1.5 VS. DENVER; ATLANTA +7.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS

The Packers might be the heaviest teaser liability so far this season for sports books, and if so it's for good reason. We have the classic "advantage teaser" situation of a good team, plus a strong HFA, taking on an inferior opponent, with the home favorite needing to do little more than win outright. Stranger things have happened, but it's difficult to foresee modern day Joe Flacco leading the Broncos to an upset at Lambeau Field.

In the second leg of the teaser, we can bet on the team that's better than its numbers through two weeks would indicate to keep it within a TD against the team that's worse than its numbers would suggest when the Falcons take on the Colts in Indianapolis. Steve Fezzik noted on the Dream Preview podcast that there's a differential of 5 turnovers between these two teams - a significant difference for just two weeks' worth of action - with Atlanta being -3 in TOs and the Colts being +2, resulting in scoreboards that undersell the Falcons and overestimate Indy. Digging a little deeper, even with all of Philadelphia's injuries last Sunday night it was impressive to see Atlanta win the YPP battle by a full two yards. The Colts, meanwhile, just lost the YPP battle to an offense led by Marcus Mariota. And bringing this thread's kickoff post full circle, if this one goes down to the wire, as rarely as kicking should factor into a handicap you'd have to think the advantage would go to the Falcons with Adam Vinatieri having missed 2 of 3 FG attempts and 3 of 5 PATs in the season's first two weeks.

While Atlanta is widely available in teaser territory, if you can't get the Falcons up through 7 on a 6-point teaser then Carolina +8 is a viable alternative for the second leg for a reduced wager amount.

"COLD FRIENDS IN DRY PLACES" - BEER OF THE WEEK

Photo: @irisdelights (Instagram)

Beer: Number Crunch (2019)
Brewery: Bottle Logic (Anaheim, CA)
Style: Imperial Stout
ABV: 13.55%

With balmy weather sweeping much of the country it isn't yet "stout season" - there will be time for winter warmers in the months ahead - but if we're crunching numbers and pulling for a stout Bills defense on Sunday, Number Crunch fits the mold for the Beer of the Week.

Pouring jet black with a milk chocolate-colored head, Number Crunch gives off notes of bourbon, vanilla, a touch of coffee and copious chocolate. While it packs a little heat as you'd expect for a 13.55% ABV, a rich body helps it go down deceptively easily.

Released this summer in tandem with Bottle Logic's famed Fundamental Observation - a similar beer without the cacao and more of a vanilla presence - it's a fun experiment trying to decide which beer is better. In a win-win situation, if you prefer Number Crunch you won't be wrong.

Rating: 4.5 out of 5

[SportsHec8]

https://twitter.com/sh8model/status/...071213568?s=21Hey guys my box scores for the week

[Matt Landes]

https://twitter.com/sh8model/status/...071213568?s=21Hey guys my box scores for the week

Thanks for sharing. Am I reading correctly that you think the dog should win outright in DET-PHI? I think the market has overadjusted for the PHI injuries at the current number of -4.5 and is giving DET too much credit for winning a game they had no business winning last week. PHI would be hard-pressed to hand it to them on a silver platter like LAC did.

Even with a substantial PHI downgrade for the injuries I have them as the clear better team, plus HFA, plus Pederson vs. Patricia.

[Matt Landes]

Thanks for sharing. Am I reading correctly that you think the dog should win outright in DET-PHI? I think the market has overadjusted for the PHI injuries at the current number of -4.5 and is giving DET too much credit for winning a game they had no business winning last week. PHI would be hard-pressed to hand it to them on a silver platter like LAC did.

Even with a substantial PHI downgrade for the injuries I have them as the clear better team, plus HFA, plus Pederson vs. Patricia.

I stand corrected...that was indeed a Chargers-esque performance by the Eagles. Allowing a kickoff return for a TD, going -2 in TOs, and dropping 7 passes including a backbreaker to ice it is one way to give away a game. Detroit is one of the more fraudulent undefeated teams through 3 weeks in recent memory.

[Matt Landes]

And for some halftime reading during the Rams-Browns SNF showdown, our NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5 thread is now live here.