Should I back my friend?

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by Al Masters

Where do you play poker?

Full Tilt and Party mostly.

warriorfan707 · 03-23-10, 01:56 PM

Track him for the first week of MLB, if it doesn't work out you could always roll with my MLB picks on here, betting baseball is a piece of cake

Chi_archie · 03-23-10, 01:57 PM

seriously no

whatsgood5 · 03-23-10, 02:15 PM

Easy decision here, don't do it.

G's pks · 03-23-10, 02:25 PM

So he posts here, is broke and he wants you to back his bets. You are here to write long responses seeking forum members approval. Who said there is not a sucker born every second...you made the club.

Willie Bee · 03-23-10, 02:44 PM

Degen, no offense but it sounds like you had your mind made up before you asked for any advice. My wife does this to me all the time, and I tell her the same thing: If you're fishing for a specific answer, just let me know and I'll tell you that answer so I can get on with life. If you want an honest opinion, then ask away.

iceminers26 · 03-23-10, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Degen, no offense but it sounds like you had your mind made up before you asked for any advice. My wife does this to me all the time, and I tell her the same thing: If you're fishing for a specific answer, just let me know and I'll tell you that answer so I can get on with life. If you want an honest opinion, then ask away.

Boner_18 · 03-23-10, 02:51 PM

LOL Willie.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Willie Bee

Degen, no offense but it sounds like you had your mind made up before you asked for any advice. My wife does this to me all the time, and I tell her the same thing: If you're fishing for a specific answer, just let me know and I'll tell you that answer so I can get on with life. If you want an honest opinion, then ask away.

He never asked me to back him - it is just obvious he could use a backer.

I am skeptical that he can win but I would like it if he could, so I could profit from it.

My question is how do I analyze his betting prowess other than just taking a gamble?

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

So he posts here, is broke and he wants you to back his bets. You are here to write long responses seeking forum members approval. Who said there is not a sucker born every second...you made the club.

There is no shortage of dickheads on this forum, eh?

Dunder · 03-23-10, 02:58 PM

I don't know any "Sportsbetting beasts" who are broke.
I have known a few who, despite ample evidence to the contrary, thought they were good and found inventive ways to stay "in the game".

Stay away from this, far away.

bradthebloke · 03-23-10, 03:03 PM

i didnt read much past your first post so i dont know what they told you on here but i would advise hell no! you said he appears broke yet he claims hes winning? Look at it this way, would you give your money to a financial planner without seeing what he has done for his clients in past yrs? def do not do it.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by bradthebloke

i didnt read much past your first post so i dont know what they told you on here but i would advise hell no! you said he appears broke yet he claims hes winning? Look at it this way, would you give your money to a financial planner without seeing what he has done for his clients in past yrs? def do not do it.

His argument for this is showing me all sorts of sites and threads where he makes 'picks' and his record in these appears to always be 55-60%+. The problem though is that these are not bets he placed, only predictions he made. When I asked if he would have bet all of those if he had the money he said 'no, only the best ones' whatever the hell 'best' means, if he's even qualified to determine that.

What is a good 'sample size' for sports betting? If I pick 60% winners over 100 games does that mean I am a winner? What about 500 games, 1,000, 5,000?

In poker you need at least 100,000 hands to have any sort of idea - and that is even small. Lots of donkeys play 10,000 hands or less and win a bunch of money and assume they are god. What is that donkey number in sports betting?

G's pks · 03-23-10, 03:19 PM

another long response...you sound like a real loser let me guess... Under 25, do not want to work for a living and a chronic masturbater...

G's pks · 03-23-10, 03:20 PM

he is soooooooooooo good he is broke...wake up dummy!

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

another long response...you sound like a real loser let me guess... Under 25, do not want to work for a living and a chronic masturbater...

Over 25 (under 30), self-made millionaire and get so much pussy from so many women it lowers my sex drive. True story.

Some people are just long winded. Deal with it.

he is soooooooooooo good he is broke...wake up dummy!

Unless he is lying he has paid all of his bills with sports betting for the last several years. That implies some skill. In observing his bets recently and the way he manages his finances he is horrible with money and has no concept of bankroll management. I have known many very talented poker players who had this problem as well. They are perfect candidates to stake if you can somehow structure things so you are effectively managing their bankroll for them. That is exactly what I'd be doing with him - he'd give me picks I'd place the bets.

rm18 · 03-23-10, 03:28 PM

I bet I would be up a lot more money lifetime if I told someone who to bet and never bet crazy

G's pks · 03-23-10, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

Over 25 (under 30), self-made millionaire and get so much pussy from so many women it lowers my sex drive. True story.

Some people are just long winded. Deal with it.

Unless he is lying he has paid all of his bills with sports betting for the last several years. That implies some skill. In observing his bets recently and the way he manages his finances he is horrible with money and has no concept of bankroll management. I have known many very talented poker players who had this problem as well. They are perfect candidates to stake if you can somehow structure things so you are effectively managing their bankroll for them. That is exactly what I'd be doing with him - he'd give me picks I'd place the bets.

A self made millionaire asking if he should back a broke gambler...very believiable,,,

mcbaseball10 · 03-23-10, 03:32 PM

GL with whatever you decide. First thing I thought about was Rounders when you stated your situation..

The thing to think about is, after paying 10% juice on average and paying him I'm assuming the same 10%, you would probably be better off capping the games yourself because long term I can't see how this could be profitable.

Dunder · 03-23-10, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

His argument for this is showing me all sorts of sites and threads where he makes 'picks' and his record in these appears to always be 55-60%+. The problem though is that these are not bets he placed, only predictions he made. When I asked if he would have bet all of those if he had the money he said 'no, only the best ones' whatever the hell 'best' means, if he's even qualified to determine that.

What is a good 'sample size' for sports betting? If I pick 60% winners over 100 games does that mean I am a winner? What about 500 games, 1,000, 5,000?

In poker you need at least 100,000 hands to have any sort of idea - and that is even small. Lots of donkeys play 10,000 hands or less and win a bunch of money and assume they are god. What is that donkey number in sports betting?

It is not dissimilar to poker but using a margin of error of two standard deviations (which is perhaps conservative) someone hitting 55% over 2000 games (spreads/totals) will hit at least 52.4% (breakeven at -110) in the long run.

bradthebloke · 03-23-10, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

His argument for this is showing me all sorts of sites and threads where he makes 'picks' and his record in these appears to always be 55-60%+. The problem though is that these are not bets he placed, only predictions he made. When I asked if he would have bet all of those if he had the money he said 'no, only the best ones' whatever the hell 'best' means, if he's even qualified to determine that.

What is a good 'sample size' for sports betting? If I pick 60% winners over 100 games does that mean I am a winner? What about 500 games, 1,000, 5,000?

In poker you need at least 100,000 hands to have any sort of idea - and that is even small. Lots of donkeys play 10,000 hands or less and win a bunch of money and assume they are god. What is that donkey number in sports betting?

i'd say 1,000 or so. and these games he shows you, are they games you can confirm he picked before they went off? hindsight's 20/20. good luck either way. I wouldnt do it myself but to each his own

Willie Bee · 03-23-10, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

My question is how do I analyze his betting prowess other than just taking a gamble?

Bet him heads-up, $10 a game. Let him pick the side he wants and take the other side. Choose one book to use for spreads/totals. After 100 bets, do the math.

rm18 · 03-23-10, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

His argument for this is showing me all sorts of sites and threads where he makes 'picks' and his record in these appears to always be 55-60%+. The problem though is that these are not bets he placed, only predictions he made. When I asked if he would have bet all of those if he had the money he said 'no, only the best ones' whatever the hell 'best' means, if he's even qualified to determine that.

What is a good 'sample size' for sports betting? If I pick 60% winners over 100 games does that mean I am a winner? What about 500 games, 1,000, 5,000?

In poker you need at least 100,000 hands to have any sort of idea - and that is even small. Lots of donkeys play 10,000 hands or less and win a bunch of money and assume they are god. What is that donkey number in sports betting?

Other things you can look at to gauge if he will win long term like beating the closing number, and also the margin he wins or loses by. If he is hitting 60% but sweating out every game that is less impressive than hitting 50% with a lot of easy wins and tough losses.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

A self made millionaire asking if he should back a broke gambler...very believiable,,,

I'd back TJ Cloutier or Mike Matusow into any poker tournament they wished to play. Both of them are broke. I don't know anything about sports betting, hence why I came here to ask some experts.

The thing to think about is, after paying 10% juice on average and paying him I'm assuming the same 10%, you would probably be better off capping the games yourself because long term I can't see how this could be profitable.

He asked for 50% not 10%...

I thought about this awhile and it actually doesn't seem bad if I know he's picking winners. If we bet 1,000 games over the MLB season and he can pick 60% winners we should show a profit basically always (right?). So no matter what share I get I'm making a +EV bet - not sure if I'm analyzing that wrong.

As for capping myself, that would be a sure blunder. I don't even follow sports. The Lakers are my favorite basketball team and I found out they won the finals several months later.

It is not dissimilar to poker but using a margin of error of two standard deviations (which is perhaps conservative) someone hitting 55% over 2000 games (spreads/totals) will hit at least 52.4% (breakeven at -110) in the long run.

This is great, thanks

i'd say 1,000 or so. and these games he shows you, are they games you can confirm he picked before they went off? hindsight's 20/20. good luck either way. I wouldnt do it myself but to each his own

They are timestamped - he makes a big deal about that. And people are giving their reactions and analysis to his pics beforehand etc.

kchien · 03-23-10, 03:47 PM

just back him with a few k. If you lose (which everyone says you probably will), who cares? You're a "self made millionaire", you have plenty of money left. If you win, go on vacation or something.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by kchien

just back him with a few k. If you lose (which everyone says you probably will), who cares? You're a "self made millionaire", you have plenty of money left. If you win, go on vacation or something.

What % of your bankroll should each bet be? If we start with $1k is $50 bets about right?

The upside for us both just seems so small. I asked him how long to double our money with $50 bets and a $1k bankroll, he said a few months. I'm not going through all that bullshit to win $150 a month.

bostonbruins · 03-23-10, 04:06 PM

If he was that good he wouldn't be broke, saying he paid bills is bullshit. If you are that good, lay the bill money, take the profit then go pay the bills.

mcbaseball10 · 03-23-10, 04:06 PM

Very small percentage of people hit 60% in the long range. Here is a great website for money management.

Sports betting money management

Basically says 2-3% of bankroll per bet.

THE PROFIT · 03-24-10, 12:03 AM

maybe MM is his problem, he needs someone to "manage" him! You can hit 70% and be broke if you go full tilt on the losers because they are your "locks"! If he posted here why did he quit? Ran his mouth about how good he was then shit the bed??? That's what usually happens...

I don't post a thread here with daily picks, no need to. I give my opinion on games in peoples threads & discuss them, that's why we're all here. Anyone can look at my contest standings if they have any question about my capping ability, and I am considered to be fairly sharp by several here. I do this for a living and don't really care what anyone thinks, I'm here to gather information & help where I can.

It takes balls to post your picks everyday & take the ridicule from posters when they go sour, and they will go sour. You can crunch numbers all day but an 18 year old kid with a hard on or a 26 year old millionaire with a chip on his shoulder doesn't always do what you think he will do!

DegenFarang · 03-24-10, 02:51 AM

He never quit, he still posts here and makes bets and picks. He is just currently very low on money.

mcbaseball10 · 04-27-10, 05:26 PM