Should I back my friend?

jjgold · 03-23-10, 11:42 AM

Sounds like a set up for recruiting posters to scam

All bettors lose Son

stat away he is a fraud

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 11:44 AM

There is no scam he is a close personal real life friend from high school. He is also not a fraud - but he may be a losing sports bettor, which is what I'm trying to determine.

Also if you were calling me a scam, I'd like to make it very clear that under NO CIRCUMSTANCES would I ever be willing to stake people from this forum. I stake poker players I have known for years, I don't know anybody here. This is a legitimate question about two people who know each other in real life.

topgame85 · 03-23-10, 11:48 AM

Bad idea can do nothing but end badly

jjgold · 03-23-10, 11:48 AM

Of course he loses

forget it

Fieldysnuts44 · 03-23-10, 11:50 AM

Good way to lose good friend,if he really is good friend.He's probably busto and knows you have some cash.Dont get involved.

iceminers26 · 03-23-10, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

There is no scam he is a close personal real life friend from high school. He is also not a fraud - but he may be a losing sports bettor, which is what I'm trying to determine. Also if you were calling me a scam, I'd like to make it very clear that under NO CIRCUMSTANCES would I ever be willing to stake people from this forum. I stake poker players I have known for years, I don't know anybody here. This is a legitimate question about two people who know each other in real life.

Hey Farang, first off don't listen to a single thing JJ posts, the majority of the time its all bullshit and he just posts to get his numbers up.

I'll be the first to tell you from my own past experiences that you should never lend or in you case, open up an account, use his picks, and give him a percentage, to friends, regardless of how close you guys are because when money becomes involved things start to get messy. In college 4 years back I had a good buddy who was in the hole and at the time I was on a good run so I spotted him 5k to get out of it, to this day I have not seen a dime from him and to think this was my linemate and close pal at one time. IMO I would not enter into this agreement because 9 times out of 10 it will not end well and you really have to ask yourself if he was so good at it, why would he be broke? I know you said he had bills, but I'm not buying it but you know him best so only you can make a sound decision. I just know from my past experiences with betting, money, and friends, it is best to keep things separate. Good luck with what you decide.

poker_dummy101 · 03-23-10, 12:00 PM

stay away

rm18 · 03-23-10, 12:01 PM

it is easy to be up big and broke, Antione walker made 9 figures and is broke.

JerseyLove · 03-23-10, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by iceminers26

Hey Farang, first off don't listen to a single thing JJ posts, the majority of the time its all bullshit and he just posts to get his numbers up.

I'll be the first to tell you from my own past experiences that you should never lend or in you case, open up an account, use his picks, and give him a percentage, to friends, regardless of how close you guys are because when money becomes involved things start to get messy. In college 4 years back I had a good buddy who was in the hole and at the time I was on a good run so I spotted him 5k to get out of it, to this day I have not seen a dime from him and to think this was my linemate and close pal at one time. IMO I would not enter into this agreement because 9 times out of 10 it will not end well and you really have to ask yourself if he was so good at it, why would he be broke? I know you said he had bills, but I'm not buying it but you know him best so only you can make a sound decision. I just know from my past experiences with betting, money, and friends, it is best to keep things separate. Good luck with what you decide.

Very well put! Money can make family turn on you .

rm18 · 03-23-10, 12:05 PM

he has not even seen the guy in years, basically just about if he thinks it will make money or not. But gambling is hard to begin with and then you do not get the full profit if he wins might not be a good idea

jjgold · 03-23-10, 12:06 PM

First post and he writes this?

It's a fukkin set up hick boys

I can sell you clowns anything.

unluckysob · 03-23-10, 12:10 PM

He may be pretty good, but the nut keeps eating away. I think every serious gambler needs 40 or 50 percent income from another source.----THATS IF YOU ARE REAL GOOD AT GAMBLING.

Marigold HD · 03-23-10, 12:13 PM

Don't bother

THE PROFIT · 03-23-10, 12:16 PM

If you are good at sports betting and have money management discipline you will not be broke. Maybe not rich, but not broke. Which sports is he best in? Does he use a betting system or old fashioned handicapping? In his capping is he a trend/situational capper? Find out a little about his picks and his strong points. You will have to make the decision on what to do. It's your friend and your money. He sounds alot like most people I know though. Broke but just $100 from the next big thing!

If you have the money give him a chance. Load an account with a thousand & try his picks. See how his methods are. I could take his picks daily for 1 month without even betting them & tell you if he's worth a shit or not.

I wouldnt count on it turning into much though. I was in a similar situation when I was young. An older friend of mine promised that he could hit 60% consistently in college football. I was young & naive & staked him. He goes on a cold streak & skips town. Alot more to the story but the point is people think they can do something, but it's your money so beware. If hes not a friend you care to lose go for it, or if you can afford to lose a little money & there will be no hard feelings, give it a go. It's just money, they're printin' the fuk out of it as we speak!

Boner_18 · 03-23-10, 12:21 PM

Here are the ways this can end:
Happy with friendship and make money
Happy with friendship and lose money
Destroyed friendship and make money
Destroyed friendship and lose money

The chances of outcome one are less than 1% and the chances of outcome four are greater than 99%. GL.

Domer · 03-23-10, 12:22 PM

100% of sports bettors think they are sports betting geniuses, 95% are donkeys

terrible idea, stay away

babyanni · 03-23-10, 12:26 PM

no dont back him

milwaukee mike · 03-23-10, 12:27 PM

anyone that knows what they're doing doesn't need staking.

and jj i assure you and others here that anybody with 0 knowledge about sports can be consistently profitable. i do agree almost all "handicappers" lose money over the long run, so why do it?

all you have to do is take bonus money and bet both sides on baseball (lowest juice). there's 100% chance of consistent profits.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

first post and he writes this?

It's a fukkin set up hick boys

i can sell you clowns anything.

what am i selling you monkey. I'll probably never post here again. Go play in traffic.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by Domer

100% of sports bettors think they are sports betting geniuses, 95% are donkeys

terrible idea, stay away

Awesome. You just made up my mind for me. Thank you.

This exact same thing applies to poker and is why it is so profitable.

All of this blah blah about money and friends doesn't phase me - I'm trying to make a business decision here.

Willie Bee · 03-23-10, 12:38 PM

Hey degenfarang. Welcome to SBR

You did ask for opinions on the subject, and the opinions have been very one-sided against the idea. Now I can tell you there is a lot of bullshit tossed around between posters here, but at the same time and based on what you have told the board, the advise you got from these posters is good, solid advice.

Whatever you decide, good luck.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 12:38 PM

I just had a half hour screaming conversation with him about the fact that I am certain there is some form of juice built into baseball betting lines. He is certain there is not because they are money line bets and not written as +110 -110 etc. I know exactly nothing about baseball betting or sports betting but I know for certain that bookmakers are not performing an act of charity when they allow people to bet on baseball and that they are not betting against people when they do - they are taking some type of juice out of the pool. This alone, and the fact that he had no idea what 'zero sum' and 'negative sum' games were, lead me to believe he probably lacks skills in other critical areas I am not qualified to analyze.

If by some chance I am wrong and there is no juice or vig or fee or tax or rake of any kind if baseball money line bets, somebody please let me know. I offered to bet my condo against his laptop that you guys would agree with me and he turned me down - but he still insists he is right...

jjgold · 03-23-10, 12:45 PM

Degen we caught you

can I send your man 2000?

I am personally putting you on my watch list Son

behave and you will be fine

god bless

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by Boner_18

Here are the ways this can end:
Happy with friendship and make money
Happy with friendship and lose money
Destroyed friendship and make money
Destroyed friendship and lose money

The chances of outcome one are less than 1% and the chances of outcome four are greater than 99%. GL.

lol

So I create a 5dimes account and put $1,000 in it and let him give me the picks. He (hypothetically) is terrible and picks 40% winners on $50 bets. We go broke sometime after the All-Star break and this destroys our friendship...why, exactly?

I've staked several friends in poker who have lost my money and our friendship was not affected. I loaned my brother $700 18 months ago he has not paid back and we are fine, probably closer now than we were then.

Sounds like you guys have been breaking rule number 1. Don't bet anything you are not prepared to lose. If you go in knowing you may lose your whole bet or investment and are able to do so financially, you should be fine with any outcome.

If he loses my money it wont impact our friendship, because I would never put that much money on the line (and I would always be in control of the money, so he could not steal it).

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Degen we caught you

can I send your man 2000?

I am personally putting you on my watch list Son

behave and you will be fine

god bless

You can ask him if he decides to post in this thread. He told me you were the winner of the 'biggest cock sucker on SBR' contest - so I don't know how serious he would take your offer.

And given the replies so far and the fact that I said I agreed with one saying I should not stake him (and I'm not going to), my scam does not appear to be going very well, does it, troll?

THE PROFIT · 03-23-10, 12:52 PM

Dont let JJ run ya off. His sole purpose in life is to generate traffic for SBR and he even fuks that up. He's just weary of scams. An amway salesman showed up at his door 8 years ago & he still hasnt recovered. But he will give you a hell of a deal on soap powder & vitamins, if you'll buy 78 cases at a time

statnerds · 03-23-10, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by DegenFarang

what am i selling you monkey. I'll probably never post here again. Go play in traffic.

great idea to show up and have your 3rd ever post bashing a guy that has been here forever with 60K posts. no, length of membership and post totals don't make him right, but should earn him some respect from a new poster.

as for your question, how do you have zero proof of his performance? a real good friend you haven't spoke to in years?

if your situation is legit, there is no time limit. make him prove he can win before you back him, that is just investing smarts. would you ever buy a stock without checking performance history and earnings? hell no. there should be no urgency. give him 2 months or the entire MLB to win. if he does, front him for next season. no expiration date on MLB. when he falls on his face as i suspect he will, you will be relieved you save yourself some $$$$.

MC PICKS · 03-23-10, 12:58 PM

Tough call man. The friendship factor makes it even harder to tread. If he a true sharp chances are he wouldnt be broke since the sharps win long term and never leverage over their head so he may know his shit but the fact that he's broke shows poor money mangenet right off the bat. If you decide to stake him I suggest something very light to start off with, 1-2 percent max, of your bankroll. This way if, he dumps it, you wont have any ill will toward your friend. But if he's looking for a huge chunk up front I would say no.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

If you are good at sports betting and have money management discipline you will not be broke. Maybe not rich, but not broke. Which sports is he best in?

Baseball. He can't wait for this season to start and I was thinking of letting him make MLB picks for me. He bets NBA, NFL, NCAA - everything it seems.

Does he use a betting system or old fashioned handicapping?

He has some systems but they are not complex. He does not use complex mathematical analysis or anything that impresses me in this regard. I shouldn't give them away but he has little heuristics that he thinks make for profitable pics and he'll make 30 of those in one day - ignoring everything else but some small detail.

He also is extremely confident that he just 'knows sports' and can look at the games and tell you who will win etc. So I guess thats handicapping and I think this accounts for most of his actual bets vs his 'picks'.

In his capping is he a trend/situational capper? Find out a little about his picks and his strong points.

No idea. But I know his strong point is knowing sports really well. He always has.

He sounds alot like most people I know though. Broke but just $100 from the next big thing!

He said you do know him, from this forum

- He'll have to 'out' himself though, I wont do it after this thread.

If you have the money give him a chance. Load an account with a thousand & try his picks. See how his methods are. I could take his picks daily for 1 month without even betting them & tell you if he's worth a shit or not.

This was along my train of thought. Even if he picks 40% winners we aren't going to lose that much money. But talking to him more and more he just does not seem to grasp the fundamental math of gambling. I just can't see how one can be a winner sports bettor if they don't understand how they must be paying juice in some form by betting on baseball.

Thanks for the reply!

Chi_archie · 03-23-10, 01:01 PM

dont' back him

THE PROFIT · 03-23-10, 01:06 PM

he said we knew him from the forum? Who is he?

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

great idea to show up and have your 3rd ever post bashing a guy that has been here forever with 60K posts. no, length of membership and post totals don't make him right, but should earn him some respect from a new poster.

My friend and several people here all told me he was full of shit and he did nothing but insult me and call me a scammer. 2+2+2=HeCanSuckMyDick.com

as for your question, how do you have zero proof of his performance? a real good friend you haven't spoke to in years?

Best friends from high school. Have kept in contact lightly since I moved away from our hometown at 21. He came to visit and work for me in another country about ten days ago so now we see each other a lot. Whenever he has talked about sports betting when we have talked I've kind of rolled my eyes but now I get a full on onslaught daily so I either want to start betting with him or hang myself, trying to decide which.

if your situation is legit, there is no time limit. make him prove he can win before you back him, that is just investing smarts. would you ever buy a stock without checking performance history and earnings? hell no. there should be no urgency. give him 2 months or the entire MLB to win. if he does, front him for next season. no expiration date on MLB. when he falls on his face as i suspect he will, you will be relieved you save yourself some $$$$.

Good plan and it is what he has been telling me to do. 'Wait until MLB seasons starts' etc. Actually this thread was my idea, he has not been pressing me to stake him. If he is indeed profitable I would obviously like to do so.

DegenFarang · 03-23-10, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

he said we knew him from the forum? Who is he?

Don't want to violate his privacy like that, sorry. I haven't exactly been flattering to him in this thread. He is sleeping now, he may decide to out himself when he wakes up - or PM you etc.

Al Masters · 03-23-10, 01:50 PM

Where do you play poker?