Nash 2026 MLB

[BOA12]

I'm on SD (King) pick vs. Pitt
Early afternoon game.

A duel in the sun.

I could take a 1 run pit loss for moral purpose's in this thread. ( posted 0-0 after 6 ).

[flyingillini]

The Dodgers are 58 points (BAvg) better than league average, that's insane.
Six teams are hitting below .210, and three are at .200 or below.
Starting pitchers (see above) clearly have the advantage over the hitters.
That trend will reverse in a few weeks, it usually does, when the weather heats up, so do the sticks.

Good stuff!

[flyingillini]

Some more plays

Royals -130
Brewers +123
Cardinals -118

Good luck to everyone!

[stevenash]

The Dodgers are 58 points (BAvg) better than league average, that's insane.
Six teams are hitting below .210, and three are at .200 or below.
Starting pitchers (see above) clearly have the advantage over the hitters.
That trend will reverse in a few weeks, it usually does, when the weather heats up, so do the sticks.

[stevenash]

After ten games (2 start pitchers), five pitchers have a zero ERA
Here's the top 25 starting pitchers after 10 games, minimum two starts.

Name	Tm	G	ERA	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP
Kevin Gausman	TOR	2	0.75	3	1	0	21	0.075	0.075
Cam Schlittler	NYY	2	0	3	0	0	15	0.078947	0.078947368
Bryan Woo	SEA	2	1.38461538	5	0	2	15	0.116279	0.173913043
Drew Rasmussen	TBR	2	1.8	6	2	1	10	0.153846	0.175
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	2	0	7	0	2	12	0.132075	0.178571428
Nick Martinez	TBR	2	2.25	7	2	1	7	0.162791	0.181818181
Jose Soriano	LAA	3	0.45	7	1	6	21	0.109375	0.185714285
Emerson Hancock	SEA	2	0.71052632	6	1	1	14	0.146341	0.186046511
Tarik Skubal	DET	2	0.69230769	9	1	0	9	0.191489	0.191489361
Edward Cabrera	CHC	2	0	2	0	6	9	0.058824	0.2
Joe Boyle	TBR	2	3.17647059	7	0	3	13	0.166667	0.217391304
Michael McGreevy	STL	2	2.53125	7	1	2	9	0.179487	0.219512195
Tomoyuki Sugano	COL	2	1.6875	6	2	3	9	0.157895	0.219512195
Max Fried	NYY	3	1.35	10	0	5	14	0.147059	0.226666666
Rhett Lowder	CIN	2	1.63636364	6	1	4	9	0.153846	0.232558139
Chase Burns	CIN	2	0.81818182	6	1	4	16	0.153846	0.232558139
Tyler Glasnow	LAD	2	3	8	0	3	15	0.186047	0.234042553
Bryce Elder	ATL	2	0	9	0	2	13	0.2	0.234042553
Reynaldo Lopez	ATL	2	1.63636364	7	2	3	6	0.179487	0.238095238
Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	2	0	8	0	3	8	0.186047	0.239130434
Michael Wacha	KCR	2	0.69230769	6	1	4	10	0.146341	0.239130434
Nolan McLean	NYM	2	2.61290323	5	1	4	12	0.138889	0.243902439
Seth Lugo	KCR	2	1.58823529	9	0	2	10	0.209302	0.244444444
Cristopher Sanchez	PHI	2	0.79411765	7	0	4	17	0.170732	0.244444444
Clay Holmes	NYM	2	1.42105263	7	1	5	9	0.159091	0.244897959

[stevenash]

I'm on SD (King) pick vs. Pitt
Early afternoon game.

[stevenash]

SD/PIT Tonight.
Pivetta/Skeenes

How many Ks in that game will there be?
Like 100?

[flyingillini]

KC will be my play as well.

i think Cubs will bounce back as well.

i would not be surprised to see white Sox win at home however.

Good luck, Mike!

[pimike]

KC will be my play as well.

i think Cubs will bounce back as well.

i would not be surprised to see white Sox win at home however.

[flyingillini]

Three afternoon games.

I like Noah Cameron. I'm a KC fan, I've seen him often, he's an animal, an evil lefty who's when on, unhittable.
Gavin Williams, though, can be difficult too.
At +108, KC is the play

Shane Smith got hammered last week; the O's should handle him and the Chi-Sox.
Balty -149. No thanks, Balty +124 -1.5 runline, yes, please.
I like betting road faves on the run line at times; the road team is guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat.
Balty -1.5 +124 is the play.

I'm a sucker for a home bow wow.
Arizona +140 against the Mets is a barking (See what I did there) bet.
I've always liked Zac. Sure, the Dodgers lit him up last week, but who doesn't LA light up?
IMO, there's value in the Snakes at +140

I just locked in KC, the other two dogs are leans (for now)

Good luck with your plays !

[stevenash]

Three afternoon games.

I like Noah Cameron. I'm a KC fan, I've seen him often, he's an animal, an evil lefty who's when on, unhittable.
Gavin Williams, though, can be difficult too.
At +108, KC is the play

Shane Smith got hammered last week; the O's should handle him and the Chi-Sox.
Balty -149. No thanks, Balty +124 -1.5 runline, yes, please.
I like betting road faves on the run line at times; the road team is guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat.
Balty -1.5 +124 is the play.

I'm a sucker for a home bow wow.
Arizona +140 against the Mets is a barking (See what I did there) bet.
I've always liked Zac. Sure, the Dodgers lit him up last week, but who doesn't LA light up?
IMO, there's value in the Snakes at +140

I just locked in KC, the other two dogs are leans (for now)

[flyingillini]

Feel free to post up your plays here, all respectful posts. fades, thoughts, shit, anything MLB related is welcome.
It's an open thread.

KC +108.
From your lips to God's ears.

Best of luck

Great , will do !

[stevenash]

I have some plays for tomorrow.

Cardinals -101
Royals +108
Padres +135
Tigers -1.5 +114
Mariners -116

All plays with Pinnacle

Feel free to post up your plays here, all respectful posts. fades, thoughts, shit, anything MLB related is welcome.
It's an open thread.

KC +108.
From your lips to God's ears.

Best of luck

[flyingillini]

I have some plays for tomorrow.

Cardinals -101
Royals +108
Padres +135
Tigers -1.5 +114
Mariners -116

All plays with Pinnacle

[pimike]

10 runs in the 5th!!!!

Gift!!

lol

[pimike]

Houston @ Colorado in Denver.
That OVER 10.5 looks like a gift.

wind blowing in is knock these balls down early.

[stevenash]

Houston @ Colorado in Denver.
That OVER 10.5 looks like a gift.

[lonegambler23]

nasher a bases legend
will keep an eye on this thread

[stevenash]

Glasnow (LA) -308 on the road.
YIKES
Laying 3:1 on the road is suicide, I don't care if it's the crappy Nationals.
I just don't do it, it's bankroll suicide.

[stevenash]

Here's something you don't see every day.
The Twins' cleanup hitter, Matt Wallner, went 0-5 and struck out all five times.
Ouch!
Way to clog up the middle of the order, Matt.

Rays vs. Twins (Apr 3, 2026) Box Score - ESPN

[stevenash]

Top Guns, Big Arms, and even Bigger Lines.

Ten jam-packed good afternoon slate.

Team	Line	Total	Pitcher
Dodgers	-275	9.5	Emmet Sheehan
Nationals	235	9.5	Miles Mikolas
Cardinals	150	8	Michael McGreevy
Tigers	-174	8.5	Framber Valdez
Marlins	150	7.5	Eury Perez
Yankees	-170	8	Will Warren
Padres	106	8	Michael King
Red Sox	-120	8.5	Sonny Gray
Blue Jays	-200	7.5	Dylan Cease
White Sox	180	7.5	Sean Burke
Reds	150	7.5	Brady Singer
Rangers	-170	8	MacKenzie Gore
Rays	-104	7.5	Joe Boyle
Twins	-110	8	Bailey Ober
Cubs	-118	7.5	Cade Horton
Guardians	102	7.5	Joey Cantillo
Phillies	-200	10	Aaron Nola
Rockies	170	10.5	Michael Lorenzen
Orioles	-124	8	Kyle Bradish
Pirates	106	8.5	Mitch Keller

It's insane to lay -275 on the road.
Sheehan's good, but not -275 on the road, good.

Framber and Dylan Cease are overpriced, too.

Nola -200 on the road, no, but the runline might be a play, being the Phils are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat, and that lineup with those thundersticks should exploit Lorensen.

I'm curious to see what Bradish can do on the road in Pitt.

That SD (King) BOS (Gray) matchup is very interesting.

My play
Marlins +150 NYY

Perez is filthy, and the Marlins face Will Warren.
Warren is hittable, the Marlins' sticks should ding him for 3+, Perez should keep the Yanks bats quiet.

Marlins are a huge value at +150
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

Marlins +150 NYY

[Math]

I hope you hit it but their sorry ass may sell off that staff. Sandy A might be in pinstripes this summer. They held him through his recovery to get his trade stock back up there. Well its back. Would be a shame to sale those guys off. We won on Sandy A yesterday.

Good luck

Mr. Math

[stevenash]

Im on KC -1 (-110) today.

Keep me informed on the Royals news. Ive got all my Futures on them this season. Biggest being Over 82.5 wins but ive got about everything you can bet,,,,,, bet on their futures. Each year I pick one team to ride. My biggest hit in a 40 year career in sportsbetting was the 2015 Royals. I had them every way you could have them, including to win the World Series at (+2700). Im hoping to run it back this season but i really need that win total, it would pay for all the others.

Go Royals

Mr. Math

Will do.

My biggest bet (it's posted in the other thread) is the Marlins over, and the Marlins to make the playoffs.
Their front-line pitching is terrific, and Perez is everything as advertised.

[Math]

Im on KC -1 (-110) today.

Keep me informed on the Royals news. Ive got all my Futures on them this season. Biggest being Over 82.5 wins but ive got about everything you can bet,,,,,, bet on their futures. Each year I pick one team to ride. My biggest hit in a 40 year career in sportsbetting was the 2015 Royals. I had them every way you could have them, including to win the World Series at (+2700). Im hoping to run it back this season but i really need that win total, it would pay for all the others.

Go Royals

Mr. Math

[stevenash]

Short three-game slate today (The White Sox game is already rained out)
No play today, I don't like laying -160, but on paper, Cole Ragans looks like the play, but I'll watch it with no skin in the game.

At a glance, I'm 2-3 (-0.92*) after one full week,
Not the start I was hoping for, but it's not disastrous.

Best of luck, all, and thanks to all who read this thread.

[Math]

I agree with all that. I think the best thing is for Estevez to get back to his All Star form. If this doesnt happen, we hold on to the trade deadline or hope someone emerges.


Mr. Math

[stevenash]

The Good
The bottom of the lineup went 10 for 16 last night, 8 RBI, 9 Runs
The lineup can hurt you from anywhere, 1-9
That was Joe Ryan, KC dinged last night. He's a legit staff ace; he's not an ordinary hamburger.

Cameron was terrific; all he needs to do is conserve pitches now so he can go deeper into the game.
Future Hall of Famer Sal Perez can straighten that out.
86 pitches (and he does this regularly) through five innings is too many; it taxes the bullpen, the only area that needs an upgrade.

The Bad and the Ugly
The only two I trust out of the bullpen are Erceg and Strham. Both Falter and Lange need to go down to AAA. They both walked the ballpark and got smacked around like a Grand Canyon rented mule. Makes you appreciate what Herrera, Greg Holland, and Wade Davis did ten years ago, the best three-headed bullpen I saw since the Cincy 'Nasty Boys'

Who knew that we would need those seven runs in the seventh?
If they blew that game for Cameron, I would have been very cranky.

[Math]

Looking forward to seeing Cameron tonight. If not for Estevez, we sit (3-1) right now. Im hoping he gets his arm strength back and his velocity returns but until then we dont need to see him. Thank Goodness he only cost us one win.


Mr. Math

[stevenash]

Good luck Nash, Wacha did great last night but Estevez cannot close games at this time. They knew this but ran him out there anyway. His velocity is way down, I was pissed because everyone knew how that 9th was going to turn out.

GL

Mr. Math

#1 on the list from my buddies over at RotoWire.



Closers I'm Worried About


Carlos Estevez, Royals: The warning signs were flashing bright red with Estevez throughout spring training, as his velocity was down not just the one or two ticks you often see with veteran pitchers easing into the season but a full six or seven miles per hour. That sort of drop tends to mean a pitcher is dealing with an injury which hasn't yet been reported (or even one that hasn't yet been discovered), but even if this is merely a sudden mechanical issue and Estevez is full healthy, he isn't going to be a trustworthy closer until that velocity returns.

Estevez's fastball velocity did creep back up to 91.3 mph in his season debut Saturday, the hardest he's thrown yet this season, but that's still far below the 96.1 mph he averaged last season. The results were disastrous as well, as he retired just one of the seven batters he faced and allowed six runs, including a game-losing grand slam to Dominic Smith. The Royals need to take Estevez out of the firing line as soon as possible if they have aspirations of making the playoffs this year, and it looks like that might be happening sooner rather than later, with manager Matt Quataro saying, "We're not averse to putting him in a lower leverage situation."

Worry-o-meter: 5 out of 5. Maybe 6 out of 5.

Setup man to stash: Lucas Erceg. Matt Strahm pitched the seventh inning Saturday while Erceg pitched the eighth before Estevez imploded in the ninth. With Estevez unavailable Sunday (nominally because he took a liner off his ankle Saturday), Strahm recorded the last two outs in the seventh, while John Schreiber pitched the eighth and Erceg got the save in the ninth. That pretty clearly indicates that Erceg is the next man up, and it was good to see him regain the tick of velocity that he lost last season. Erceg may have the job already, so pick him up wherever he's available if you need saves.

[Madison]

Yes, totally legit.

Another one of those lefties that drives hitters insane.
Early has a six-pitch arsenal.
His heater tops out around 96; he also throws three different offspeed pitches (slider, sinker, and curve)
Plus a couple of hybrid pitches.

In the four September call-ups last season, Early struck out 29 batters in 19 innings.


Speaking of Boston
Red Sox -130 tonight

From a former Junior League (Had everything but the fastball), he impressed me with his command of the strike zone with various angles.

[stevenash]

How bout this Royals starting pitching. Another good one today. Should be (3-1) now but they had to run Estevez last Saturday. U see he hasn't been in since. He gets mop up duty until he gets his arm strength back up.

I just finished watching that game.
If we can get some solid bullpen pitching, KC will be in the hunt all season.

[Math]

How bout this Royals starting pitching. Another good one today. Should be (3-1) now but they had to run Estevez last Saturday. U see he hasn't been in since. He gets mop up duty until he gets his arm strength back up.

[stevenash]

Nasher the BoSox youngster Early? looks like the real thing.

Yes, totally legit.

Another one of those lefties that drives hitters insane.
Early has a six-pitch arsenal.
His heater tops out around 96; he also throws three different offspeed pitches (slider, sinker, and curve)
Plus a couple of hybrid pitches.

In the four September call-ups last season, Early struck out 29 batters in 19 innings.


Speaking of Boston
Red Sox -130 tonight

[Madison]

Nasher the BoSox youngster Early? looks like the real thing.

[unde0087]

Brutal finish yesterday, hopefully they can put it together today for ya