Bit Coin now or ever ... Chucky?

[Madison]

Looks like we're on the precipice of a cliff. Seasoned investor here, novice Crypto.

Been lurking for a long time. Was active circa $10.

What are you BC disciples thinking? Dump now or buy the dip.

Please disclose your CB. Apparently MSTR and Saylor around 75-78?? He holds a BIG position no? Could break or make MSTR. Folks recommended around 400-500.

[pavyracer]

I bought at 240 MSTR and sold at 415. I bought some again today at 125. But if it drops down more I wouldn't be surprised. Just buy a little at a time until a bottom forms.

[stevek173]

Pavvayyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looks like we're on the precipice of a cliff. Seasoned investor here, novice Crypto.

Been lurking for a long time. Was active circa $10.

What are you BC disciples thinking? Dump now or buy the dip.

Please disclose your CB. Apparently MSTR and Saylor around 75-78?? He holds a BIG position no? Could break or make MSTR. Folks recommended around 400-500.

Hey, Mad. How are you?

I saw your post. It's a FAIR question. I had to think about my Answer.

Some facts:
1) Guys that I view as brilliant minds hold Bitcoin (as a heavy% of their investment portfolio).
2) American presidents have been messing w/ the Money Supply for a century+. This is relevant (to the extent that BTC can be a solution).
3) The USA's accumulated debt is a problem. There's sentiment that confidence in the USD is eroding. People will see hard assets (like Gold/Silver/Bitcoin) as an escape-hatch.

On the recent landscape, investors have sought out Silver (and Gold and Copper) more. Silver and Copper have industrial use. Bitcoin is more theoretical.

A skeptic like Bill Holter has called Bitcoin "digital air." Is he right?

I have had success on Bitcoin/Silver investments. But over a LONG horizon. There's one thing that I think the financial markets miss badly. Silver and Bitcoin carry massive volatility. Ag and BTC have Kurtosis to the moon. That means their extreme outcomes are much wider than the general financial markets (which by itself carries a relatively high Kurtosis).

Am I talking Chinese? Maybe. I feel like I'm long Bitcoin, so I'm NOT currently buying more. Have been focused more on Silver lately. Markets are a function of Supply and Demand, so your move.

*NFA: Not Financial Advice. Just my opinion.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Apparently MSTR and Saylor around 75-78?? He holds a BIG position no? Could break or make MSTR.

*Mad, I can make a few comments about MSTR/Saylor. Are you saying that their AVG buy-in is close to the current price? That COULD be true, he's surely under-water on his RECENT buys.

*See my comment above. I believe what Saylor says. I think he believes in BTC as an anti-Fiat solution.

The part that he MAY have under-estimated = the Kurtosis volatility (that I reference above). Took down LTCM, and one of those guys was a Noble Prize winner. He was using the wrong distribution formula.

[Madison]

Would be nice to hear from Saylor today. 66K as I type. Amazing circa 126K, just what 6 months or so ago.

[Madison]

So, just now per CNBC Saylor/MSTR CB 76K. And they hold a TON!!

in the 65's. Apparently a lot of stop/loss triggering?? Better hope he doesn't lose his nerve. MSTR -20.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

So, just now per CNBC Saylor/MSTR CB 76K. And they hold a TON!!

in the 65's. Apparently a lot of stop/loss triggering?? Better hope he doesn't lose his nerve. MSTR -20.

Will say one thing. Saylor looked A LOT smarter when BTC was rocketing up. Easy to say that the analysts were overly optimistic. I think their assets would be in danger of being liquidated if BTC drop-down went below 20k. I know that their Balance Sheet was actually pretty well-fortified (IE: low Debt/Equity ratio).

[Madison]

They also noted that bitcoin has now fallen below the average entry price for many U.S. spot bitcoin ETF investors, which Citi estimated at about $81,600.

[Madison]

Strategy has spent years building its bitcoin position and now holds more than 713,000 coins, having paid an average of roughly $76,000 per bitcoin, according to its latest regulatory filing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

They also noted that bitcoin has now fallen below the average entry price for many U.S. spot bitcoin ETF investors, which Citi estimated at about $81,600.

Yeah, Mad. Saylor is LAF (Long as F*k). Think they hold close to 4% of the total supply.

Someone correct me, if I'm wrong. Even on the down-turn, I don't THINK any BTC buyer has ever seen a 4-year downturn from their point of entry.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Yeah, Mad. Saylor is LAF (Long as F*k). Think they hold close to 4% of the total supply.

Someone correct me, if I'm wrong. Even on the down-turn, I don't THINK any BTC buyer has ever seen a 4-year downturn from their point of entry.

https://charts.bitbo.io/price/

Yes, that's what I'm saying. (t - 4) = approximately $44,000. Which = +50% over last 4 years.

*If that flips to negative, I would scratch my head. Just my opinion.

[2Sweeet]

Would be nice to hear from Saylor today. 66K as I type. Amazing circa 126K, just what 6 months or so ago.

OCT 6th was at 124k. I bought the dip when it hit 60k last night. Yikes

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi, Mad. Not saying that I knew ANYTHING. Just a few comments:
1) Financial mkts are more volatile than people realize. Add a multiplier of 100x on Ag/BTC.
2) A well-studied economist would say that Volatility often clusters on contiguous days.
3) SOMETIMES (but not always) the best-buy is in response to market over-reacting. Buy sign.

[pavyracer]

A lot of short selling covering today in the market. Bitcoin related stocks up 20-25%. Was a golden opportunity yesterday afternoon to buy if you never had before. We will see if the bottom formed yesterday holds.

[Madison]

OCT 6th was at 124k. I bought the dip when it hit 60k last night. Yikes

As of 2pm EST you're a genius. BOL Bud!!

[Madison]

A lot of short selling covering today in the market. Bitcoin related stocks up 20-25%. Was a golden opportunity yesterday afternoon to buy if you never had before. We will see if the bottom formed yesterday holds.

Agreed , it looked like midday somewhere around 64-66K it seemed to stabilize. Will be a fun watch for a bit??

[2Sweeet]

As of 2pm EST you're a genius. BOL Bud!!

LOL

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agreed , it looked like midday somewhere around 64-66K it seemed to stabilize. Will be a fun watch for a bit??

Pretty crazy. Back-to-back days w/ Red/Green candles of +/-10,000 (almost).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pretty crazy. Back-to-back days w/ Red/Green candles of +/-10,000 (almost).

Hey, guys. Checking in again:

1) I'm certainly not trying to view this retrospectively.
2) I got fkin wrecked on THUR. Didn't feel good.
3) The rebound on FRI was amazing.
4) I mentioned how Volatility is often correlated on consecutive days in the mkt. IE: stable>>stable...or Volatile>>Volatile.
5) Doesn't ALWAYS reverse course the next day. But it often does.
6) I'm assuming that the weekend takes some steam off the moves. MON more tame?
7) Interesting times we live in. I think it's more than just expecting an Index fund to trend = the historical 100-year average.

[k13]

Saylor is an idiot with his long predictions.
Never will happen because of the huge market cap needed.

But easy buy at 60k for the next pump.

[pavyracer]

Saylor is an idiot with his long predictions.
Never will happen because of the huge market cap needed.

But easy buy at 60k for the next pump.

Yeah don't take anything he says seriously. But if you play MSTR right the last 2 years you make money. It trades at a range of 100-450. Just buy low and sell high as many times as you can. This is not a stock that you need to hold forever to hit big. Kinda like gambling but with a stock instead of sports or card game.

[lonegambler23]

Really worried about the btc holders man

[Madison]

Really worried about the btc holders man

Would you please elaborate? I've held BTC and ETH previously.

[lonegambler23]

Would you please elaborate? I've held BTC and ETH previously.

Keeps going down man everyones panicking

[stevenash]

Major Trump backers admit 'big mistake to have him as president' as he becomes 'scapegoat'

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Keeps going down man everyones panicking

When it comes to prediction-markets, put me in the camp that I believe the MASSES usually get it wrong. A few things:

1) How many people have put in the requisite # of hours to understand BTC?
2) Volatility to the n-th degree is standard (for this asset). Best viewed as return over a 4-year cycle.
3) Over the life of BTC, some of the 4-year returns were massive. If you take ANY return over 4-year time horizon, it's always been positive. I believe it's never been lower than 1.40 ratio over the 4-year change. Current price is close to that nadir. But 1.59 (70/44) still equates to a 4-year CAGR of +12%.

[lonegambler23]

When it comes to prediction-markets, put me in the camp that I believe the MASSES usually get it wrong. A few things:

1) How many people have put in the requisite # of hours to understand BTC?
2) Volatility to the n-th degree is standard (for this asset). Best viewed as return over a 4-year cycle.
3) Over the life of BTC, some of the 4-year returns were massive. If you take ANY return over 4-year time horizon, it's always been positive. I believe it's never been lower than 1.40 ratio over the 4-year change. Current price is close to that nadir. But 1.59 (70/44) still equates to a 4-year CAGR of +12%.

chucky a market LEGEND

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky a market LEGEND

You're givin me too much credit, Lone. I Live and Learn, like anyone else.

[lonegambler23]

You're givin me too much credit, Lone. I Live and Learn, like anyone else.

lol do u gamble much anymore in sports?

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Looking at crypto and precious metals, this is why you sell some when things are booming. I have learned this lesson many times across various financial markets over my lifetime and here we are yet again. We can also reference the sports card boom of the pandemic. Nothing goes up forever and you can never go broke making a profit. That is all for today

[ChuckyTheGoat]

lol do u gamble much anymore in sports?

Recreationally? Sure. But not big $$ in play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Looking at crypto and precious metals, this is why you sell some when things are booming. I have learned this lesson many times across various financial markets over my lifetime and here we are yet again. We can also reference the sports card boom of the pandemic. Nothing goes up forever and you can never go broke making a profit. That is all for today

Hi, Jake. I have observed this on the charts. The 2020 prices were insane. Compare to current prices, they were often 5x what they are today.

I didn't pick up on it at the time. It was really the bloated Money Supply. Trading cards responded in a big way, and it was only temporary.

[Madison]

Nothing goes up forever and you can never go broke making a profit. That is all for today

Been preaching same since inception. Essentially , why I've gambled millions plus and still standing.

Nowadays many of you are banging your heads wagering on people with a collaborative IQ of what 60?? And what incentive?

I'm winning and losing 1000's a day in the stock market. My interest in sports wagering has waned year over year. There was once a time we had a real chance, not much any longer.

[Madison]

Saylor was on CNBC this am. Apparently his CB is circa76K. Maybe you can see on Youtube, or wherever. They kept pressuring him on pain threshold and he just kept reiterating, 'I'll just borrow more $$ and buy more"???

Hope you are holding your LAC??

GOV also has their fingers in USAR, which is right up your alley (rare earths/magnets). Up a ton though so tread careful.