I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[str]

[QUOTE }I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[/QUOTE]

There is just too much juice day in and day out to accomplish this long term.

Im not hating. Just a simple and logical fact.

[str]

I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

There is just too much juice day in and day out to accomplish this long term.

Im not hating. Just a simple fact.

[HoleWrecker]

7-26-2025





Giants F5 -135

Cubs -1.5 -115

Tigers F5 -0.5 -140

[HoleWrecker]

7-26-2025



Giants F5 -135

[unde0087]

Also, the only reason you are getting hammered here is you broke the one rule SBR posters have, especially old timers, don't sound like a tout. Everyone hates touts so when you come out with a thread title that sound like a commercial ad for a tout posters will line up to hammer away at you. It has been that way for decades.

[unde0087]

It comes with posting bro. If you don't like it now you should have posted this thread in 2010 before SBR went half PC. Only tough survived in PT. Most were afraid to even try. It was the wild West. Loved those days. You had to bring your hard hat to work.

[HoleWrecker]

Fair enough. I got a little overexcited in the beginning it was absolutely crushing. Its still well ahead overall but 2nd half of MLB season has been rough so far, I;m confident it'll turn.


Not sure whats up with all the toxicity though. Im just trying to contribute picks to the community. And take bit of credit for all the hours I put into this damn thing, lol.

I wish everyone good luck.

[unde0087]

Not sure how someone (especially new poster) can come at PT and start a thread with that title and not expect to get every bet scrutinized for accuracy. I mean he threatened to end the industry we all rely on for gambling so if he is successful how are we supposed to gamble without sportbooks?

classic pavy

[HoleWrecker]

7-25-2025



Giants/Mets F5 under 4.5 -154 (2 units)
Giants -137
Cubs/White sox f5 under 4.5 -140
Mariners/Angelsf5 under 4.5 -135
Brewers f5 -0.5 -154

[HoleWrecker]

7-24-2024



Padres +134
Astros -127
Guardians-114

[HoleWrecker]

7-23-2025




Rangers -144 (2 units)
Brewers/Mariners F5 under 4.5 -140
Guardians F5 -140
Padres -148
Mets/Angels F5 over 4.5 -135

[19th Hole]

I got this, MJ.

Mr. Wreckers' straight-up record is indeed 41-34-3.
He's made 78 wagers over the past 38 days.

Of those 78 wagers, he bet the favorite 72 times, three times he bet the dog, and the other three wagers were a pick.
77 of the 78 bets were one-unit flat bets, the other was a 2* bet, which, horrors of horrors, failed.

So what we have here is a flat betting serial chalk layer.
Always a winning formula in the world of baseball betting.

The three underdogs that Mr. Wrecker bet had odds of +122, +110, and +105
( I know, pretty ballsy, huh?)
The dogs went 2-1.

Assuming 1* = 100 dollars, he collected 3,900 dollars on the chalk, and picked up another 232 dollars on the two dogs that won (+122, and +110) for a total of 4,132 dollars.

With the juice, his 37 losses cost him 4895 dollars, for a net loss of 763 dollars (-7.63*)

Sixteen of those 37 losses he laid -150 or greater, six of those were losses of -170 or greater, and a -210 loss to boot.

Which goes to show what I've been preaching here for the last fourteen years, there's no quicker burial in sports betting than volume betting baseball chalk, especially when 77 out of 78 bets are 1* flats.

[HoleWrecker]

I call out trash shit when i decide to check back to see what's been going on, and now i'm a TROLL, AND y'all taking offense because i'm calling it out saying it has to be a behind a scenes person. Instead of calling the poster out, y'all keep giving them benefit of the doubt over and over. But god forbid anyone actually call the bullshit out.
And i don't know what the **** you talking about censoring sponsor books.

Ha, y'all don't tolerate "trolls." This place used to be filled with nothing but posters trashing other posters.

I think you have it wrong. YOU ARE THE TRASH SHIT.

[Optional]

Thread was moved from the Think Tank last week. But yes it is reasonable to push back on the click bait thread title.

[pavyracer]

Not sure how someone (especially new poster) can come at PT and start a thread with that title and not expect to get every bet scrutinized for accuracy. I mean he threatened to end the industry we all rely on for gambling so if he is successful how are we supposed to gamble without sportbooks?

[Optional]

I call out trash shit when i decide to check back to see what's been going on, and now i'm a TROLL, AND y'all taking offense because i'm calling it out saying it has to be a behind a scenes person. Instead of calling the poster out, y'all keep giving them benefit of the doubt over and over. But god forbid anyone actually call the bullshit out.
And i don't know what the **** you talking about censoring sponsor books.

Ha, y'all don't tolerate "trolls." This place used to be filled with nothing but posters trashing other posters.

True. And it was much busier that way. But things have changed under new management.

Happy to have people call out wrong records and air betting etc but you appeared to only be here to keep taking shots at SBR and this guy. In place of the last troll run from BeatTheJerk in the same vein.

Anyway, if it is just that you really did not know that SBR is trying to be a bit more professional and more on topic about sport, excuse me for coming back at you so hard.

I would like to see you back around more as you have the knowledge we are trying to encourage more posts with.

[louisvillekid]

Hey LK, Is your only reason for crawling out from under your rock again to post here to abuse SBR and troll this poster? That is all you have posted about since returning.

This is not the place that employs posters or censors sponsor book complaints or tolerates trolls that contribute nothing but spending their time playing big man in town abusing others.

Find another hobby here or slither back off again eh?

I call out trash shit when i decide to check back to see what's been going on, and now i'm a TROLL, AND y'all taking offense because i'm calling it out saying it has to be a behind a scenes person. Instead of calling the poster out, y'all keep giving them benefit of the doubt over and over. But god forbid anyone actually call the bullshit out.
And i don't know what the **** you talking about censoring sponsor books.

Ha, y'all don't tolerate "trolls." This place used to be filled with nothing but posters trashing other posters.

[Optional]

He(they/It/SBR employee) are up a bazillion units.

Blindly follow and bet max bankroll every play. Trust the system. Your books will be cutting you off quickly.

Hey LK, Is your only reason for crawling out from under your rock again to post here to abuse SBR and troll this poster? That is all you have posted about since returning.

This is not the place that employs posters or censors sponsor book complaints or tolerates trolls that contribute nothing but spending their time playing big man in town abusing others.

Find another hobby here or slither back off again eh?

[louisvillekid]

Up or down coming in cold?

He(they/It/SBR employee) are up a bazillion units.

Blindly follow and bet max bankroll every play. Trust the system. Your books will be cutting you off quickly.

[louisvillekid]

This is hot garbage.

6/5 SF -114 W,, LAD un 9.5 -109 L , Hou un 7.5 +100 L , Minn -186 L
6/6 SF +122 W
6/7 Hou un 7.5 -120 x2 (F/10inn 5-3) L
6/8 Phil un 7 -115 W , Minn -170 W
6/9 Cle un 8.5 +100 L
6/10 LAA -155 W (closing line was -175), SF -225 W
6/11 LAA -130 W (closing line was -150)
6/12 no play
6/13 NYM -159 L , KC -152 L
6/14 no play
6/15 KC -148 L , SF +1.5 (no line listed) W , LAD TT un 5 -148 Push
6/16 TB -120 W , Sea -166 L , Nats -165 L
6/17 SF -153 L
6/18 Tor -110 W
6/19 SF -168 W , NYM F5 un 4.5 -115 W
6/20 TB F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF -120 L
6/21 Col ov 12 -110 L , Hou F5 un 4 +100 L
6/22 SF -150 W , LAD -220 W
6/23 ATL F5 -150 W , LAA +100 W
6/24 SF -170 L , NYY -153 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 +105 W
6/25 Minn F5 -130 Push , LAA F5 -140 W
6/26 Det ov 8.5 -120 L , Sea F5 +110 L
6/27 NYY -201 W , LAA F5 -175 W , TB F5 -130 L
6/28 Mil F5 -1/2 -145 L , Oak TT un 4.5 -210 L , CWS TT un 3.5 -135 W , Hou F5 ML -115 L
6/29 Tor F5 +1/2 -154 W , ATL F5 un 4.5 -160 W , Mil F5 -1/2 -134 L
6/30 Bos F5 -215 W , TB F5 un 4.5 -145 L , Ari TT un 4.5 -195 W
7/1 SD un 9 -158 PPD , STL F5 TT un 1.5 -166 W , Bal TT un 3.5 -145 W
7/2 LAA F5 -110 W , Mil F5 -175 L , TX -135 W
7/3 SF -114 W
7/4 Bal F5 un 5.5 -180 W , CHC TT ov 4.5 -140 W
7/5 Oak TT un 4.5 -190 W , LAD F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF F5 -200 W
7/6 Mil F5 un 4.5 -130 W , Col ov 11 -110 L
7/7 LAA F5 un 4.5 L
7/8 , 7/9 no plays
7/10 Sea F5 ML -160 W , ATl ML -182 L , TB F5 ML -115 W
7/11 Det F5 un 3.5 -130 L , Pitt F5 un 3.5 -140 W , SF F5 un 4.5 -166 L
7/12 Det ML -127 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -125 W , LAA F5 ML -125 W , Tor -157 L
7/13 Tex F5 un 3.5 -125 L
7/18 Det F5 ML 135 Push , Minn TT ov 5.5 -140 L
7/19 SF un 9 -166 Push , SF F5 un 4.5 -154 W , CWS F5 -145 L , Det F5 -110 L , Sea F5 -135 W
7/20 Tor TT un 3.5 +105 L , SF F5 ML -125 L , SF ML -105 L , Phil F5 -180 L , SD F5 un 4.5 -160 L , Bos F5 -154 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -135 L
7/21 Pitt F5 -135 W , Det TT un 3.5(no juice listed) W , Philly F5 -1/2 -170 W , NYY F5 -125 L

41-33-2 + 1 PPD

Avg juice -143

total -665 (based on 100 wager)

need to win at about 58.85% to break even at avg plays of -143

41-33 = 55%

Updated record:

Currently on a 5-12-2 "run"

46-45-4 + 1 PPD

Avg juice -141

total -1729 (based on 100 wager)

need to win at about 58.5% to break even at avg plays of -141

46-45-4 = 50.5%

[louisvillekid]

I went 2-2-1 today. I have no idea how the Giants/Blue Jays didn't stay under 9 and ended as a push. It was 1-0 heading into the 6th and the Giants had Logan Webb on the mound and the best bullpen in MLB and can't hit for shit these days. Variance is MLB is absolute insanity.

But, in the longrun we shall prevail.

What are you talking about you went 2-2-1 ? You posted 7 plays for the 20th. AND....none was about the full games for SF/Tor to go under the total.

Edit; Ok, i see you posted at 3am in the morning and was talking about the plays on the 19th

Edit, edit : On the 20th all 7 plays lost , avg juice across all 7 plays -137

[louisvillekid]

The two unit play was Pirates/Astros under and it hit. I remember that one. This is fucking absurd. I know for an absolute fact that my picks are up in this thread.

No it fuckin didn't

It was on 6/7 Pitt /Hou under 7.5 x2 -120 game went 10 innings, final 5-3

[HoleWrecker]

7-22-2025

Red Sox team total under 3.5 -125
Astros 5 innings -145
Cardinals F5 innings -160
Braves team total under 4.5 -115
Phillies F5 -0.5 -140

[HoleWrecker]

Yesterday was brutal, today was 3-1 but overall ahead. I promise one of these days I wil go through and do exact records, even by wager type.

[Otters27]

Up or down coming in cold?

[HoleWrecker]

7-21-2025





Pirates F5 -135
Tigers Team Total Under 3.5
Phillies First 5 Innings -0.5 (-170)
Yankees First 5 Innings -125

[str]

If you could tweak your model to avoid the constant juice, which would most likely result in less plays and risk, that might put you over the top.
GL.

[HoleWrecker]

7-21-2025



Pirates F5 -135

[mjsuax13]

I went 2-2-1 today. I have no idea how the Giants/Blue Jays didn't stay under 9 and ended as a push. It was 1-0 heading into the 6th and the Giants had Logan Webb on the mound and the best bullpen in MLB and can't hit for shit these days. Variance is MLB is absolute insanity.

But, in the longrun we shall prevail.

MLB tough. I have lost many games in those late innings.

[HoleWrecker]

I went 2-2-1 today. I have no idea how the Giants/Blue Jays didn't stay under 9 and ended as a push. It was 1-0 heading into the 6th and the Giants had Logan Webb on the mound and the best bullpen in MLB and can't hit for shit these days. Variance is MLB is absolute insanity.

But, in the longrun we shall prevail.

[mjsuax13]

How is this going HOLE WRECKER?

[HoleWrecker]

7-20-2025



Blue jays TT under 3.5 +105

Giants F5 ML -125
Giants ML -105
Phillies F5 -180
Padres/Nats F5 under 4.5 -160
Red Sox F5 -154
Astros/Mariners F5 under 3.5 -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-19-2025





Giants/Blue Jays under 9 -166
Giants/Blue Jays F5 under 4.5 -154
White Sox F5 -105
Tigers F5 -110
Mariners F5 -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-18-2025



Minnesota Twins Team Total over 5.5 -140

Detroit Tigers F5 ML -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-18-2025





Welcome back MLB. Lets wreck the 2nd half.



Detroit Tigers F5 ML -135