I created a model for MLB that is threatening to end the industry.

[HoleWrecker]

Fair enough. I got a little overexcited in the beginning it was absolutely crushing. Its still well ahead overall but 2nd half of MLB season has been rough so far, I;m confident it'll turn.


Not sure whats up with all the toxicity though. Im just trying to contribute picks to the community. And take bit of credit for all the hours I put into this damn thing, lol.

I wish everyone good luck.

[unde0087]

Not sure how someone (especially new poster) can come at PT and start a thread with that title and not expect to get every bet scrutinized for accuracy. I mean he threatened to end the industry we all rely on for gambling so if he is successful how are we supposed to gamble without sportbooks?

classic pavy

[HoleWrecker]

7-25-2025



Giants/Mets F5 under 4.5 -154 (2 units)
Giants -137
Cubs/White sox f5 under 4.5 -140
Mariners/Angelsf5 under 4.5 -135
Brewers f5 -0.5 -154

[HoleWrecker]

7-24-2024



Padres +134
Astros -127
Guardians-114

[HoleWrecker]

7-23-2025




Rangers -144 (2 units)
Brewers/Mariners F5 under 4.5 -140
Guardians F5 -140
Padres -148
Mets/Angels F5 over 4.5 -135

[19th Hole]

I got this, MJ.

Mr. Wreckers' straight-up record is indeed 41-34-3.
He's made 78 wagers over the past 38 days.

Of those 78 wagers, he bet the favorite 72 times, three times he bet the dog, and the other three wagers were a pick.
77 of the 78 bets were one-unit flat bets, the other was a 2* bet, which, horrors of horrors, failed.

So what we have here is a flat betting serial chalk layer.
Always a winning formula in the world of baseball betting.

The three underdogs that Mr. Wrecker bet had odds of +122, +110, and +105
( I know, pretty ballsy, huh?)
The dogs went 2-1.

Assuming 1* = 100 dollars, he collected 3,900 dollars on the chalk, and picked up another 232 dollars on the two dogs that won (+122, and +110) for a total of 4,132 dollars.

With the juice, his 37 losses cost him 4895 dollars, for a net loss of 763 dollars (-7.63*)

Sixteen of those 37 losses he laid -150 or greater, six of those were losses of -170 or greater, and a -210 loss to boot.

Which goes to show what I've been preaching here for the last fourteen years, there's no quicker burial in sports betting than volume betting baseball chalk, especially when 77 out of 78 bets are 1* flats.

[HoleWrecker]

I call out trash shit when i decide to check back to see what's been going on, and now i'm a TROLL, AND y'all taking offense because i'm calling it out saying it has to be a behind a scenes person. Instead of calling the poster out, y'all keep giving them benefit of the doubt over and over. But god forbid anyone actually call the bullshit out.
And i don't know what the **** you talking about censoring sponsor books.

Ha, y'all don't tolerate "trolls." This place used to be filled with nothing but posters trashing other posters.

I think you have it wrong. YOU ARE THE TRASH SHIT.

[Optional]

Thread was moved from the Think Tank last week. But yes it is reasonable to push back on the click bait thread title.

[pavyracer]

Not sure how someone (especially new poster) can come at PT and start a thread with that title and not expect to get every bet scrutinized for accuracy. I mean he threatened to end the industry we all rely on for gambling so if he is successful how are we supposed to gamble without sportbooks?

[Optional]

I call out trash shit when i decide to check back to see what's been going on, and now i'm a TROLL, AND y'all taking offense because i'm calling it out saying it has to be a behind a scenes person. Instead of calling the poster out, y'all keep giving them benefit of the doubt over and over. But god forbid anyone actually call the bullshit out.
And i don't know what the **** you talking about censoring sponsor books.

Ha, y'all don't tolerate "trolls." This place used to be filled with nothing but posters trashing other posters.

True. And it was much busier that way. But things have changed under new management.

Happy to have people call out wrong records and air betting etc but you appeared to only be here to keep taking shots at SBR and this guy. In place of the last troll run from BeatTheJerk in the same vein.

Anyway, if it is just that you really did not know that SBR is trying to be a bit more professional and more on topic about sport, excuse me for coming back at you so hard.

I would like to see you back around more as you have the knowledge we are trying to encourage more posts with.

[louisvillekid]

Hey LK, Is your only reason for crawling out from under your rock again to post here to abuse SBR and troll this poster? That is all you have posted about since returning.

This is not the place that employs posters or censors sponsor book complaints or tolerates trolls that contribute nothing but spending their time playing big man in town abusing others.

Find another hobby here or slither back off again eh?

I call out trash shit when i decide to check back to see what's been going on, and now i'm a TROLL, AND y'all taking offense because i'm calling it out saying it has to be a behind a scenes person. Instead of calling the poster out, y'all keep giving them benefit of the doubt over and over. But god forbid anyone actually call the bullshit out.
And i don't know what the **** you talking about censoring sponsor books.

Ha, y'all don't tolerate "trolls." This place used to be filled with nothing but posters trashing other posters.

[Optional]

He(they/It/SBR employee) are up a bazillion units.

Blindly follow and bet max bankroll every play. Trust the system. Your books will be cutting you off quickly.

Hey LK, Is your only reason for crawling out from under your rock again to post here to abuse SBR and troll this poster? That is all you have posted about since returning.

This is not the place that employs posters or censors sponsor book complaints or tolerates trolls that contribute nothing but spending their time playing big man in town abusing others.

Find another hobby here or slither back off again eh?

[louisvillekid]

Up or down coming in cold?

He(they/It/SBR employee) are up a bazillion units.

Blindly follow and bet max bankroll every play. Trust the system. Your books will be cutting you off quickly.

[louisvillekid]

This is hot garbage.

6/5 SF -114 W,, LAD un 9.5 -109 L , Hou un 7.5 +100 L , Minn -186 L
6/6 SF +122 W
6/7 Hou un 7.5 -120 x2 (F/10inn 5-3) L
6/8 Phil un 7 -115 W , Minn -170 W
6/9 Cle un 8.5 +100 L
6/10 LAA -155 W (closing line was -175), SF -225 W
6/11 LAA -130 W (closing line was -150)
6/12 no play
6/13 NYM -159 L , KC -152 L
6/14 no play
6/15 KC -148 L , SF +1.5 (no line listed) W , LAD TT un 5 -148 Push
6/16 TB -120 W , Sea -166 L , Nats -165 L
6/17 SF -153 L
6/18 Tor -110 W
6/19 SF -168 W , NYM F5 un 4.5 -115 W
6/20 TB F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF -120 L
6/21 Col ov 12 -110 L , Hou F5 un 4 +100 L
6/22 SF -150 W , LAD -220 W
6/23 ATL F5 -150 W , LAA +100 W
6/24 SF -170 L , NYY -153 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 +105 W
6/25 Minn F5 -130 Push , LAA F5 -140 W
6/26 Det ov 8.5 -120 L , Sea F5 +110 L
6/27 NYY -201 W , LAA F5 -175 W , TB F5 -130 L
6/28 Mil F5 -1/2 -145 L , Oak TT un 4.5 -210 L , CWS TT un 3.5 -135 W , Hou F5 ML -115 L
6/29 Tor F5 +1/2 -154 W , ATL F5 un 4.5 -160 W , Mil F5 -1/2 -134 L
6/30 Bos F5 -215 W , TB F5 un 4.5 -145 L , Ari TT un 4.5 -195 W
7/1 SD un 9 -158 PPD , STL F5 TT un 1.5 -166 W , Bal TT un 3.5 -145 W
7/2 LAA F5 -110 W , Mil F5 -175 L , TX -135 W
7/3 SF -114 W
7/4 Bal F5 un 5.5 -180 W , CHC TT ov 4.5 -140 W
7/5 Oak TT un 4.5 -190 W , LAD F5 un 4.5 -125 L , SF F5 -200 W
7/6 Mil F5 un 4.5 -130 W , Col ov 11 -110 L
7/7 LAA F5 un 4.5 L
7/8 , 7/9 no plays
7/10 Sea F5 ML -160 W , ATl ML -182 L , TB F5 ML -115 W
7/11 Det F5 un 3.5 -130 L , Pitt F5 un 3.5 -140 W , SF F5 un 4.5 -166 L
7/12 Det ML -127 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -125 W , LAA F5 ML -125 W , Tor -157 L
7/13 Tex F5 un 3.5 -125 L
7/18 Det F5 ML 135 Push , Minn TT ov 5.5 -140 L
7/19 SF un 9 -166 Push , SF F5 un 4.5 -154 W , CWS F5 -145 L , Det F5 -110 L , Sea F5 -135 W
7/20 Tor TT un 3.5 +105 L , SF F5 ML -125 L , SF ML -105 L , Phil F5 -180 L , SD F5 un 4.5 -160 L , Bos F5 -154 L , Hou F5 un 3.5 -135 L
7/21 Pitt F5 -135 W , Det TT un 3.5(no juice listed) W , Philly F5 -1/2 -170 W , NYY F5 -125 L

41-33-2 + 1 PPD

Avg juice -143

total -665 (based on 100 wager)

need to win at about 58.85% to break even at avg plays of -143

41-33 = 55%

Updated record:

Currently on a 5-12-2 "run"

46-45-4 + 1 PPD

Avg juice -141

total -1729 (based on 100 wager)

need to win at about 58.5% to break even at avg plays of -141

46-45-4 = 50.5%

[louisvillekid]

I went 2-2-1 today. I have no idea how the Giants/Blue Jays didn't stay under 9 and ended as a push. It was 1-0 heading into the 6th and the Giants had Logan Webb on the mound and the best bullpen in MLB and can't hit for shit these days. Variance is MLB is absolute insanity.

But, in the longrun we shall prevail.

What are you talking about you went 2-2-1 ? You posted 7 plays for the 20th. AND....none was about the full games for SF/Tor to go under the total.

Edit; Ok, i see you posted at 3am in the morning and was talking about the plays on the 19th

Edit, edit : On the 20th all 7 plays lost , avg juice across all 7 plays -137

[louisvillekid]

The two unit play was Pirates/Astros under and it hit. I remember that one. This is fucking absurd. I know for an absolute fact that my picks are up in this thread.

No it fuckin didn't

It was on 6/7 Pitt /Hou under 7.5 x2 -120 game went 10 innings, final 5-3

[HoleWrecker]

7-22-2025

Red Sox team total under 3.5 -125
Astros 5 innings -145
Cardinals F5 innings -160
Braves team total under 4.5 -115
Phillies F5 -0.5 -140

[HoleWrecker]

Yesterday was brutal, today was 3-1 but overall ahead. I promise one of these days I wil go through and do exact records, even by wager type.

[Otters27]

Up or down coming in cold?

[HoleWrecker]

7-21-2025





Pirates F5 -135
Tigers Team Total Under 3.5
Phillies First 5 Innings -0.5 (-170)
Yankees First 5 Innings -125

[str]

If you could tweak your model to avoid the constant juice, which would most likely result in less plays and risk, that might put you over the top.
GL.

[HoleWrecker]

7-21-2025



Pirates F5 -135

[mjsuax13]

I went 2-2-1 today. I have no idea how the Giants/Blue Jays didn't stay under 9 and ended as a push. It was 1-0 heading into the 6th and the Giants had Logan Webb on the mound and the best bullpen in MLB and can't hit for shit these days. Variance is MLB is absolute insanity.

But, in the longrun we shall prevail.

MLB tough. I have lost many games in those late innings.

[HoleWrecker]

I went 2-2-1 today. I have no idea how the Giants/Blue Jays didn't stay under 9 and ended as a push. It was 1-0 heading into the 6th and the Giants had Logan Webb on the mound and the best bullpen in MLB and can't hit for shit these days. Variance is MLB is absolute insanity.

But, in the longrun we shall prevail.

[mjsuax13]

How is this going HOLE WRECKER?

[HoleWrecker]

7-20-2025



Blue jays TT under 3.5 +105

Giants F5 ML -125
Giants ML -105
Phillies F5 -180
Padres/Nats F5 under 4.5 -160
Red Sox F5 -154
Astros/Mariners F5 under 3.5 -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-19-2025





Giants/Blue Jays under 9 -166
Giants/Blue Jays F5 under 4.5 -154
White Sox F5 -105
Tigers F5 -110
Mariners F5 -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-18-2025



Minnesota Twins Team Total over 5.5 -140

Detroit Tigers F5 ML -135

[HoleWrecker]

7-18-2025





Welcome back MLB. Lets wreck the 2nd half.



Detroit Tigers F5 ML -135

[ttwarrior1]

just wait for nfl this season. Im predicting the fav to win 90 percent

[stevenash]

One thing you can count on is the mods here WANT you to win. They WANT you to succeed.

A winning thread with solid info and a reason WHY a play is or is not made, drives more views and more interest. It is logical information in a game where very little is typically displayed.

Who doesn't want to see that?

So don't get mad at them for commenting or doing the math for all to see.

Nobody says any of this stuff is easy. We all know that.

Attacking people makes you or anyone instantly lose all credibility.

You missed your calling, Mr. Str.
You have diplomacy up and down your veins, sir.

Except for a few sociopaths suffering from ASPB, nobody gets satisfaction from others' failures.
Captain Obvious once said, Nothing succeeds like success, If a group of posters gets on a heater, the positive buzz will spread like wildfire.

It's not mandatory, but when someone creates a pick thread or writes up a spot play, I would like to know as to why they're backing that side. That's just my preference, though, and it's not mandatory. As Jack McCoy used to say, "it lends towards credibility."

I used to catch grief, not so much these days, but I love to write up eight-paragraph plays.
Peavy still breaks my balls about my long-winded musings.
That's just my style, I love to write, especially sports, what can I tell you, I'm just a geek from way back.
Point being, whatever works for you, go for it.

Simplicity and efficiency often go hand in hand.
The same principle applies here; the easiest way to track your plays is to post a brief recap the following day. Did you win or lose? How many units were won or lost, etc, if you update your records as they happen, or the day after, the possibility of confusion is reduced to almost nil, and it removes a lot of doubt regarding one's integrity. In any business, especially this one, once you lose trust from your peers, the chances of redemption are also gone.

The quickest way to fall out of favor is to not track your plays, then come back a week later and state (this is a hypothetical), "I went 9 -2 last week for an 8.18* net profit, when in actuality they went six and six for the week and lost a few units.
What's even worse than that is when you try to point out the errors, you get shouted down by the offender that he's correct, and it's we who are all wrong, while hurling 'f' bombs and other choice perjoratives while doing so.
Nothing pisses me off more than somebody who verbally abuses my family or my dogs, and whatnot.
And in some perverse, abstract way, the dysfunctional family here at SBR
is family too, just don't hog all the smashed taters at the dinner table, please.

(I can hear you guys now, by the way, "Hey Nash, get on with it already, you're wearing me out here already, just wrap it up already, you windbg you)

I need to wrap this up anyway and move on to other things.
My best advice?

If somebody doesn't know the answer to a particular question, just say I don't know, but I can research that.
That reply will always get you a truckload of respect.

If somebody points out an honest mistake you made, the reply that'll get you 100 percent respect every time is "I'm sorry, that was an honest mistake, thank you for pointing that out to me."

Banning a user is always the last resort, unless it's a habitual spammer, or an incorrigible jakass user that doesn't get it, and never will get it after several suspensions (timeouts) where push comes to shove, and we have no other options left.
Opti had to drill that into my thick blockhead when I started moderating here almost three years ago.

Finally (but I'm not making promises that I can't keep), if being a jackass and a goofball were a bannable offense, I would have sized nine myself to the gutter at least 40 times over by now.

[louisvillekid]

I'm now thinking whoever is behind this acct is an SBR employee or paid by them to deliberately shit-post.

No way someone is being this retarded for free.

[EnTaroTuna]

The two unit play was Pirates/Astros under and it hit. I remember that one. This is fucking absurd. I know for an absolute fact that my picks are up in this thread.

June 7th Astros/Guardians under 7.5 for 2 units. WIN

Lol, can't even keep his story straight on the only 2 unit bet he made. What's funnier is that neither of these unders hit anyway. I already showed him that these 2 bets were logged improperly.

Are you using ChatGPT to grade the results for you? The results generally line up but it misclassified 5 bets in that table:
6/5 Giants ML Loss - Giants won
6/5 Pirates/Astros Under 7.5 - 10 runs
6/7 Astros/Guardians Under 7.5 - 8 runs, went over in extra innings
6/13 Royals ML Win, lost to Athletics
6/21 Angels/Astros F5 Under 4 - 8 runs first 5 innings

Don't know how to make it any clearer that his record keeping is trash. I previously thought he wasn't doing it on purpose, that it was just ChatGPT grading them wrong or something, but now I know he's just trolling for comments.

[pavyracer]

It has been proven over and over again in MLB that a model to work needs data for current season. By the time enough data is collected to validate the system the season is over. So it never works.

[str]

Here art SBR, you get a little of everything.

One thing you can count on is the mods here WANT you to win. They WANT you to succeed.

A winning thread with solid info and a reason WHY a play is or is not made, drives more views and more interest. It is logical information in a game where very little is typically displayed.

Who doesn't want to see that?

So don't get mad at them for commenting or doing the math for all to see.

Nobody says any of this stuff is easy. We all know that.

Attacking people makes you or anyone instantly lose all credibility.

Hope that makes sense to you.