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Thank you. Yes, I used chatgpt to add up the records I woudlnt be surprised if there was an error or two in there, I did not alter anything intentionally. Appreciate the input. Ill go through sometime and verify them all 1 by 1. I know I should really be better at keeping records.
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looks very good. I count 36 games in the table, plus the 2 on the 25th giving 38. Assuming -134 on the Giants 6/15 game, I calculate a +6.47. The other 8 games (to make 44) might contribute the missing +3 or so. Certainly quite good,, another 20 days should really tell the story.Leave a comment:
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Detailed Pick BreakdownJune 5th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -114 Loss -1.14 June 5th Mets vs Dodgers Under 9.5 Total (Under) -109 Loss -1.09 June 5th Pirates vs Astros Under 7.5 Total (Under) +100 Win +1.00 June 5th Twins Moneyline Moneyline -186 Loss -1.86 June 6th Giants Moneyline Moneyline +122 Win +1.22 June 7th Astros vs Guardians Under 7.5 Total (Under) -120 Win +2.00 (2 units) June 8th Phillies vs Pirates Under 7 Total (Under) -115 Win +1.00 June 8th Twins Moneyline Moneyline -170 Win +1.00 June 9th Reds vs Guardians Under 8.5 Total (Under) +100 Loss -1.00 June 10th Angels Moneyline Moneyline -155 Win +1.00 June 10th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -225 Win +1.00 June 11th Angels Moneyline Moneyline -130 Win +1.00 June 13th Mets Moneyline Moneyline -159 Loss -1.59 June 13th Royals Moneyline Moneyline -152 Win +1.00 June 15th Royals Moneyline Moneyline -148 Loss -1.48 June 15th Giants +1.5 Runs Line Run Line N/A Win +1.00 June 15th Dodgers Team Total Under 5 Team Total (Under) -148 Push 0.00 June 16th Rays Moneyline Moneyline -120 Win +1.00 June 16th Mariners Moneyline Moneyline -166 Loss -1.66 June 16th Nationals Moneyline Moneyline -165 Loss -1.65 June 17th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -153 Win +1.00 June 18th Blue Jays Moneyline Moneyline -110 Win +1.00 June 19th Braves/Mets First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Total (Under) -115 Win +1.00 June 19th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -168 Win +1.00 June 19th Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Total (Under) -125 Win +1.00 June 20th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -120 Loss -1.20 June 20th Rays/Tigers First 5 Innings Under 4.5 Total (Under) -125 Win +1.00 June 20th Rockies/Dbacks Over 12 Total (Over) -110 Loss -1.10 June 20th Angels/Astros First 5 Innings Under 4 Total (Under) +100 Win +1.00 June 22nd Giants Moneyline Moneyline -150 Win +1.00 June 22nd Dodgers Moneyline Moneyline -220 Win +1.00 June 23rd Braves First 5 Innings Total (Under) -150 Win +1.00 June 23rd Angels Full Game Moneyline +100 Win +1.00 June 24th Giants Moneyline Moneyline -170 Loss -1.70 June 24th Yankees Moneyline Moneyline -153 Loss -1.53 June 24th Phillies/Astros First 5 Innings Under 3.5 Total (Under) +105 Win +1.05
Summary- Total picks: 44
- Wins: 27
- Losses: 16
- Pushes: 1
- Net units won: +9.27 units (based on the running totals above)
- Bet types: Majority Moneyline and Totals (Under/Over), with a few Run Line and Team Total bets.
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June 24, 2025
Giants -170
Yankees -153
Phillies/Astros F5 Under 3.5 (+105)Leave a comment:
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6-21-2025
Rockies/Dbacks over 12 -110
F5 Angels/Astros under 4 +100
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6-15-2025
Giants +1.5
Royals -148
Dodgers team total under 5 -148Leave a comment:
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6-10-2025
Angels -155
Giants -225
We don’t normally like laying this kind of juice. In fact, we actively avoid it most of the time. But sometimes, the numbers justify it — and today’s Giants vs Rockies matchup is one of those cases.
The line is sitting around –225, which implies a 69% win probability. That’s steep. But our internal model — which weighs starting pitcher quality, bullpen performance, offensive metrics, and home/road splits — projects the Giants closer to 73% to win. That gives us about a +4% edge over the market, which is significant when all signals align.
Matchup Breakdown:- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
Harrison’s been solid: 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 19 K in 18.2 IP. Palmquist? 8.50 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, high walk rate. Clear mismatch. - Bullpens: Giants pen ranks top 10 in ERA/WHIP; Rockies’ pen is bottom-tier in both.
- Offense: SF has consistent producers in Ramos, Chapman, Flores. Colorado is hitting .219 as a team with one real threat (Hunter Goodman).
- Trends: Giants are hot — 5 straight wins. Rockies are 6–25 at home this season. Not a typo.
This isn’t a YOLO pick. It’s not a square “better team wins” take. It’s a spot where every edge stacks up: SP, bullpen, offense, team form, home/road trend, and even motivation.
We’ll usually pass on laying –225. But when our model says it should be –270 or worse, we listen.
Final Play: Giants ML (–225)
Let’s cash it.
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- Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison (SF) vs Carson Palmquist (COL).
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