Florida Gators cashing in during SEC play
Billy Donovan's Gators are making friends among bettors with a recent 4-1 run at the window. The question now is can they continue to defy the spreads after fading each of the last two years down the stretch in SEC play? Several of the top teams in the conference are also becoming popular for 'over' players. The Kentucky Wildcats are 7-3 to the high side in recent action while Vanderbilt is 10-6 O/U for the entire season.
I predicted on Friday that Tennessee would bounce back from its loss to Vanderbilt last week to cover against Florida on Sunday, but in an amazing twist of fate, yours truly was proven wrong.
The Volunteers did manage to slip past the Gators 61-60 on Scottie Hopson’s jumper with 21 seconds left, but Florida cashed as 8 ½-point underdogs at Thompson-Boling Arena. The loss against the spread dropped Tennessee to only 1-4 ATS (3-2 SU) in its last five games, and to a pedestrian 8-8-1 ATS (16-4 SU) on the season.
The Vols have only two ATS paydays in six SEC games so far (4-2 SU), but their fortunes are likely to change against lowly LSU on Thursday night (more on that in a bit).
As for the Gators, they shot poorly from three-point land (four of 16) against the Vols as expected, but they’re quickly becoming the sharpest wager in the SEC East. The cover against Tennessee lifted Florida to 4-1 against the number and SU in its last five games; the Gators are now 9-7 ATS (15-6 SU) this season.
That said, I’d tread lightly on Florida over the next few weeks. The Gators started each of the last two seasons on a good note before fading down the stretch in conference play.
This is probably the best of Billy Donovan’s teams since Florida won back-to-back national championships, but that doesn’t guarantee anything with the Gators sure to be the choice of squares against Alabama and Mississippi State this week.
Kentucky (20-1 SU, 10-9 ATS) is barely above the .500 mark against the spread, but the Wildcats are worth handicapping nonetheless. Everything-but-guaranteed to lose its No. 1 national ranking when the polls are updated on Monday, Kentucky’s 68-62 loss at South Carolina (+7) last week was the best thing that could have happened to it from a betting perspective.
The Wildcats have been profitable for totals bettors lately, going 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS). Kentucky is a bankable 8-3 O/U at home, although the trend is in jeopardy when it takes on Mississippi (16-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) on Tuesday night at Rupp Arena.
The Rebels have played 'under' the number in four of their last five games, going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS along the way. Ole Miss has proven to be the best wager against the spread in the SEC over the long haul despite falling 80-73 to Arkansas (+11½) on Sunday.
The defeat to the Razorbacks was the first time the Rebels dropped the cash since failing to cover as five-point chalk in their 80-76 win at Georgia on January 13.
If Mississippi is the best bet in the SEC, West Division rival Louisiana State (9-12 SU, 4-13 ATS) is the worst. The Tigers have been particularly bad at home this season, going 2-7 against the number in Baton Rouge.
LSU is putting up only 63.5 points per game, and ranks 333rd in the nation (28.4%) in three-point shooting. The downturn was mostly forseeable after the Tigers lost Marcus Thornton, Garrett Temple, and Chris Johnson in the offseason, but public bettors have yet to catch on that LSU has a dearth of talent on its roster.
The Tigers are a money-draining 1-8 ATS (1-9 SU) in their last 10 contests, and haven’t covered since their 67-58 loss to the Gamecocks as 10-point road underdogs on January 13.
Louisiana State’s last SU win came nine days earlier against McNeese State, while the Tigers haven’t won SU and covered in the same game since getting past Western Kentucky 71-60 as 6 ½-point favorites back on November 17. With Tennessee and Kentucky on tap this week, make sure to stay away from LSU.
The Tigers aren’t a complete write-off for bettors because of their 4-12 O/U record, which put them one step behind the Crimson Tide, who are the SEC’s top under wager at 3-14 O/U (13-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS).
'Over' bettors need to head back to the SEC East to get their fix. The Bulldogs come into the week as one of the sharpest over wagers in the land at 12-3 O/U (9-10 SU, 10-8 ATS).
Billy Donovan's Gators are making friends among bettors with a recent 4-1 run at the window. The question now is can they continue to defy the spreads after fading each of the last two years down the stretch in SEC play? Several of the top teams in the conference are also becoming popular for 'over' players. The Kentucky Wildcats are 7-3 to the high side in recent action while Vanderbilt is 10-6 O/U for the entire season.
I predicted on Friday that Tennessee would bounce back from its loss to Vanderbilt last week to cover against Florida on Sunday, but in an amazing twist of fate, yours truly was proven wrong.
The Volunteers did manage to slip past the Gators 61-60 on Scottie Hopson’s jumper with 21 seconds left, but Florida cashed as 8 ½-point underdogs at Thompson-Boling Arena. The loss against the spread dropped Tennessee to only 1-4 ATS (3-2 SU) in its last five games, and to a pedestrian 8-8-1 ATS (16-4 SU) on the season.
The Vols have only two ATS paydays in six SEC games so far (4-2 SU), but their fortunes are likely to change against lowly LSU on Thursday night (more on that in a bit).
As for the Gators, they shot poorly from three-point land (four of 16) against the Vols as expected, but they’re quickly becoming the sharpest wager in the SEC East. The cover against Tennessee lifted Florida to 4-1 against the number and SU in its last five games; the Gators are now 9-7 ATS (15-6 SU) this season.
That said, I’d tread lightly on Florida over the next few weeks. The Gators started each of the last two seasons on a good note before fading down the stretch in conference play.
This is probably the best of Billy Donovan’s teams since Florida won back-to-back national championships, but that doesn’t guarantee anything with the Gators sure to be the choice of squares against Alabama and Mississippi State this week.
Kentucky (20-1 SU, 10-9 ATS) is barely above the .500 mark against the spread, but the Wildcats are worth handicapping nonetheless. Everything-but-guaranteed to lose its No. 1 national ranking when the polls are updated on Monday, Kentucky’s 68-62 loss at South Carolina (+7) last week was the best thing that could have happened to it from a betting perspective.
The Wildcats have been profitable for totals bettors lately, going 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS). Kentucky is a bankable 8-3 O/U at home, although the trend is in jeopardy when it takes on Mississippi (16-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) on Tuesday night at Rupp Arena.
The Rebels have played 'under' the number in four of their last five games, going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS along the way. Ole Miss has proven to be the best wager against the spread in the SEC over the long haul despite falling 80-73 to Arkansas (+11½) on Sunday.
The defeat to the Razorbacks was the first time the Rebels dropped the cash since failing to cover as five-point chalk in their 80-76 win at Georgia on January 13.
If Mississippi is the best bet in the SEC, West Division rival Louisiana State (9-12 SU, 4-13 ATS) is the worst. The Tigers have been particularly bad at home this season, going 2-7 against the number in Baton Rouge.
LSU is putting up only 63.5 points per game, and ranks 333rd in the nation (28.4%) in three-point shooting. The downturn was mostly forseeable after the Tigers lost Marcus Thornton, Garrett Temple, and Chris Johnson in the offseason, but public bettors have yet to catch on that LSU has a dearth of talent on its roster.
The Tigers are a money-draining 1-8 ATS (1-9 SU) in their last 10 contests, and haven’t covered since their 67-58 loss to the Gamecocks as 10-point road underdogs on January 13.
Louisiana State’s last SU win came nine days earlier against McNeese State, while the Tigers haven’t won SU and covered in the same game since getting past Western Kentucky 71-60 as 6 ½-point favorites back on November 17. With Tennessee and Kentucky on tap this week, make sure to stay away from LSU.
The Tigers aren’t a complete write-off for bettors because of their 4-12 O/U record, which put them one step behind the Crimson Tide, who are the SEC’s top under wager at 3-14 O/U (13-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS).
'Over' bettors need to head back to the SEC East to get their fix. The Bulldogs come into the week as one of the sharpest over wagers in the land at 12-3 O/U (9-10 SU, 10-8 ATS).