[NotoriousBVD]

Started the season on March 8th with a bank of £5545.01 and built a net profit of £7536.59.

Suffered my first loss after 17 bets to the tune of £6006.38 last Sunday when I backed OKC away to LAC in the 4Q. Sickening.

In a bid to recover all my losses I targeted Miami in game 4 vs Brooklyn only to trade out for a very small profit when the scores were tied and witness Bosh bury a corner 3 seconds later to clinch the game. I felt almost as bad as I did during the OKC crumble. I keep replaying the decision to trade out over and over again in my head because looking at the upcoming schedule it was the best opportunity to recover all my losses in one bet.

I decide to wait and back Miami again this time in game 5. I manage to win £1517.45 when they beat Brooklyn at home but for 99% of that game, though, I had resigned myself to defeat and facing a future where I have not only lost all my profit but my original bank as well. It would have ruined me financially and emotionally. I was actually walking around the house during periods of that game, especially during the 3rd and 4th quarter muttering to myself. I even drew up a potential trade in the 3Q that would have transferred all my losses to Miami because Brooklyn looked like winning so dominantly. But they didn't and I felt relieved when the game finished. I had targeted Spurs for a double header but was emotionally drained after the Heat game. Even at half time I would have netted around £1000-£1300 if I backed Spurs ML but I went to sleep.

And here I still am, looking for ways to erase the original OKC loss which now stands at £4272.05 before I even start to consider walking away.

I said to myself I would back LAC in game 6 but went to bed because I wasn't getting involved in that series again. Woke up and looked at the score and breathed a sigh of relief but paid close attention to the 1Q score and wondered how it would have been a good trading opportunity, but who am I kidding.

I then started to give serious consideration towards backing Arsenal yesterday all the way up until KO this afternoon. I even had a dream about Wilshere scoring the winning header last night FFS. I was ready but in the end decided against it for fear of losing a lot, if not all, of my money backing Arsenal (especially as a Liverpool fan). You can imagine my relief after the opening 10 minutes.

But the OKC loss still lingers on the mind, not nearly as bad as Sunday and Monday, but still, it's there along with the pressure to erase or significantly reduce the loss as quickly as possible.

My attentions have turned to Miami ML tomorrow or, if I don't bet on that San Antonio ML on Monday.

Thoughts, criticism, advice and guidance all welcome.

[vinkl]

Good bankroll management and volume is key. Sports betting is a high variance game. IMO, this game is not for you. You cannot be results-oriented either.

You should never be putting more than 2.5% of your bankroll on any game. It's a long term game. You are looking at the short term results which can result in making poor decisions. Poor decisions leads to losing rolls and chasing losses. You may have bad runs before it even turns around.

[NotoriousBVD]

To be honest, I'm not in it for the long term. As for betting no more than 2.5% of my bank roll, there's no way I'd be inclined to do that.

I am a high stakes, low odds kind of gambler. It's how initially built my net profit and ultimately how I lost a massive chunk of it.

The thing is, the kind of fixtures I would target are now no longer available due to the domestic football league season ending. So it's either wait until next season or find that one bet which will erase the loss and then some. Obviously had I gone in hung ho with Miami tonight I would have been left reeling but I still have that part of me that can make a sensible judgement and decide like for instance tonight, that game 1 should be a watch and monitor type situation. And I can't believe how easy Pacers steam rolled Miami tonight FML.

I said to myself that if Miami got beat tonight that game 2 would be an automatic pick because every loss Miami has suffered in the last two Playoffs (including this one), they have bounced back with a win. And as for OKC/Spurs, you can forget that as well.

[The Kraken]

To be honest, I'm not in it for the long term. As for betting no more than 2.5% of my bank roll, there's no way I'd be inclined to do that.

I am a high stakes, low odds kind of gambler. It's how initially built my net profit and ultimately how I lost a massive chunk of it.

The thing is, the kind of fixtures I would target are now no longer available due to the domestic football league season ending. So it's either wait until next season or find that one bet which will erase the loss and then some. Obviously had I gone in hung ho with Miami tonight I would have been left reeling but I still have that part of me that can make a sensible judgement and decide like for instance tonight, that game 1 should be a watch and monitor type situation. And I can't believe how easy Pacers steam rolled Miami tonight FML.

I said to myself that if Miami got beat tonight that game 2 would be an automatic pick because every loss Miami has suffered in the last two Playoffs (including this one), they have bounced back with a win. And as for OKC/Spurs, you can forget that as well.

You don't have to have great bankroll management nor only bet a % on each play. You've decided you're not in it for the long term so your style is fine. Those guys with great bankroll management just go broke slower than high risk, all in type bettors. Bettors like yourself.

What you need is a goal. What I mean is, what is your end game? When do you cash out and how much? Without a goal, without cashing out occasionally, with your style of betting, there is a 100% chance you go broke. And it may be nothing more than bad luck but it will happen.

patience is key for you as well. You sound rushed to make a play to recover your losses. Honestly in NBA, i'm finding it hard to find value anywhere right now or get a good feel on either series. So for action, I'm just picking off good numbers and hoping to win.

But if you choose go go all in, I wish you the best of luck. When you do, plz start a thread and I'll sweat it out with you.

[BIGDAY]

I like chasing. The rush is like no other.

[jjgold]

Kid your compulsive gambler let me know if you want me to enroll you want to program in your local community

Gambling is not for you and you will have a life of misery

[GunShard]

I usually bet less than 5% of total bankroll.
You push all in on sports betting, you will lose in the long run.
This is not Texas Hold'em poker.

[NotoriousBVD]

So, I ignored the Spurs/Thunder series opener but didn't back Miami to beat Indiana last night. I felt absolutely miserable when I saw the result this morning. I would have won around £7,000.

No doubt I will feel the same tomorrow morning when I see that Spurs have beaten Thunder. I'll have missed out on £4,000 on that one.

Roll on Miami Saturday.

[Easy-Rider 66]

So, I ignored the Spurs/Thunder series opener but didn't back Miami to beat Indiana last night. I felt absolutely miserable when I saw the result this morning. I would have won around £7,000.

No doubt I will feel the same tomorrow morning when I see that Spurs have beaten Thunder. I'll have missed out on £4,000 on that one.

Roll on Miami Saturday.

Be careful. Sounds like you are along for the ride. But most likely not what you are looking for.

[jjgold]

Noto your never going to last pal

I can picture a bookie dangling your fukkin ankles off a fukkin bld man and forcing your to pay

Man this is not good

[Seto]

Wow. Good read.

This sounds a lot like what I'm going through at least "emotionally". I had an exceptional NBA season up until mid-march then had an awful run to end the regular season and another awful one to start the playoffs. Then I had a great couple of weeks where I erased the entire playoff losses and was starting to work into the late regular season ones, and then I blew almost everything of those couple weeks' winnings in one awful day between Washington and the Clippers in the game 6's.

I was already on major tilt after the Wizards game (it was futures I lost on them) and even posted in my thread that I KNEW I was gonna chase on LAC and I still couldn't stop myself. I shoulda just got outside, had a nice long walk (a 4am one mind you, I think we're from the same country), then come back a couple hours later and watched the game on replay with no risks of chasing. Obviously easy to say now.

I had an EXACTLY similar day last season, when I lost a big futures bet on the Clippers against thr Grizzlies but somehow couldn't come to terms with it and started putting in live retarded bets and blew a fukkton of money on the under live in that game, Clippers+11 or whatever live and Houston+7.5 live against the Thunder in the other game - funny how it was the same type of day, game 6's with one of them being a Thunder closeout game and the other being one I had big futures that were about to lose on. It's like the world was giving me an opportunity to show I'd learnt my lesson but instead I made the same damn mistake again, a year later.

There's no way I'm going to recover eveything in one play or whatever so we're not on the same boat there but we are in the sense that we won't be satisfied until we recover it. There's nothing worse than losing big because following those big losses even when you win there's not that much pleasure because you feel you're just winning back money that "belongs" to you. On the other hand during the course of the season it was a lot more fun because I was just winning and setting new "career highs" 3 or 4 times a week. I had 9 consecutive winning months in the NBA - January to June in 12/13 and November to January in 13/14. Just an insane ride. I even had a winning month in May where I had that big chase/loss day. It won't be the case this year though, my May is doomed.

And as for the decision to hedge on Miami/Nets - I feel ya. During these playoffs I have literally made the wrong decision every single time in terms of the "hedge or not hedge" dilemna live when I'm getting worried cause the game isn't playing out the way I imagined it too but I still can get out of it but should I... It's a fukking nightmare.

Good luck going forward. Ultimately you do have to come to terms with big losses though and just accept them - I'm slowly coming to terms with the fact that I may not set a new "career high" for months, possibly not until the next NBA season unless I get insanely hot during the stretch run in NBA or the French Open/Wimbledon.

[Seto]

Noto your never going to last pal

I can picture a bookie dangling your fukkin ankles off a fukkin bld man and forcing your to pay

Man this is not good

I don't understand how anyone can get to that point. I'd never borrow money that I knew I couldn't pay back to gamble (or to do anything else for that matter), ever.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I don't understand how anyone can get to that point. I'd never borrow money that I knew I couldn't pay back to gamble (or to do anything else for that matter), ever.

Addiction. Read post #189 in this thread to understand more.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-baske...bottom-p6.html

[Seto]

Addiction. Read post #189 in this thread to understand more.
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/ncaa-baske...bottom-p6.html

Addiction may be part of the problem but I think it's a mentality thing. I'm pretty "addicted" to gambling in my own way (ie for example I never disconnect from the sports world and hence never disconnect from the gambling world, ever. I will go through stretches where I don't gamble for a week or even a couple weeks during "slow" times of the year like the summer but I never just disconnect completely even if I don't have action. And it's 100 percent by choice.)

Yet I'd never, ever be inclined to do something like that because of personal pride and principles. There's a lot more than addiction in this to me. People are shameless. On a completely unrelated note to gambling it always amazes me how many scumbags there are on this planet who stiff money you lend them or take months to pay back shit, just out of complete disrespect and not caring, not because they're actually broke. If I owe someone anything, be it 5 or 50 or 500 bucks it's gonna piss me off until the second I give it back to them. Even if I have good reason for oweing it ie a friend buys tickets for a sporting event and I pay the guy back the next time I see him, or forget money to go out to lunch or whatever. I just hate oweing money and always do everything to pay ASAP. So it makes sense to me that in the same way, people are prepared to stiff their bookie, or borrow money they can't pay back from their family/friends to gamble. Part of it is a sickness but part of it is just being pieces of shit and having no principles.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Addiction may be part of the problem but I think it's a mentality thing. I'm pretty "addicted" to gambling in my own way (ie for example I never disconnect from the sports world and hence never disconnect from the gambling world, ever. I will go through stretches where I don't gamble for a week or even a couple weeks during "slow" times of the year like the summer but I never just disconnect completely even if I don't have action. And it's 100 percent by choice.)

Yet I'd never, ever be inclined to do something like that because of personal pride and principles. There's a lot more than addiction in this to me. People are shameless. On a completely unrelated note to gambling it always amazes me how many scumbags there are on this planet who stiff money you lend them or take months to pay back shit, just out of complete disrespect and not caring, not because they're actually broke. If I owe someone anything, be it 5 or 50 or 500 bucks it's gonna piss me off until the second I give it back to them. So it makes sense to me that in the same way, people are prepared to stiff their bookie, or borrow money they can't pay back from their family/friends to gamble. Part of it is a sickness but part of it is just being pieces of shit and having no principles.

For some yes. Good point.

[NotoriousBVD]

That would have been the easiest £3900 I would have made in my life if I backed Spurs, all but erasing my loss to around £300. FML.

I'm definitely going to back Miami...sods law they make it one where I have to sweat it out and probably lose as well. I can also relate to a lot of what you said Seto...a part of me also feels like just withdrawing and placing my account on exclusion.

[jjgold]

Notor you like big action which is dangerous.

[mackave]

Go big or go home

Stay safe my friends

[FSUnole05]

What you need is a goal. What I mean is, what is your end game? When do you cash out and how much? Without a goal, without cashing out occasionally, with your style of betting, there is a 100% chance you go broke. And it may be nothing more than bad luck but it will happen.

I completely agree about having a goal. I am by no means a dime player or anything close. I enjoy watching basketball and football and feel like I know a decent amount to make plays. I have a goal I am working towards, paying for a good chunk (if not all) of my honeymoon next summer. I started with $500 and have it up to $800 since the playoffs started. If I lose all $500, no sweat, it's all fun. I plan to cash out every $500 profit I turn and hope to make a couple thousand in the next 12 months. Realistic? Maybe, but the point is I will not bet what I'm not willing to lose. Addiction runs in my family, so I have always been very careful. I don't care if someone here makes fun of me for being a stupid $10 and $20 bettor... I know that's what I can handle.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I completely agree about having a goal. I am by no means a dime player or anything close. I enjoy watching basketball and football and feel like I know a decent amount to make plays. I have a goal I am working towards, paying for a good chunk (if not all) of my honeymoon next summer. I started with $500 and have it up to $800 since the playoffs started. If I lose all $500, no sweat, it's all fun. I plan to cash out every $500 profit I turn and hope to make a couple thousand in the next 12 months. Realistic? Maybe, but the point is I will not bet what I'm not willing to lose. Addiction runs in my family, so I have always been very careful. I don't care if someone here makes fun of me for being a stupid $10 and $20 bettor... I know that's what I can handle.

He who makes fun of you will most likely be the fool in the end game for wagering on too big of a scale. Sounds you you have a ideal perspective on the gambling game. GL.

[Seto]

There's no real shame in being a small bettor as long as you don't pretend to be a "bigtime" guy like some guys do here.

I'm not sure how much satisfaction you'll be able to get from betting small amounts as time goes by but I guess if you truly view this as a hobby and aren't in it for the money it can work. However it does seem you do want some money out of it so I would be surprised if after a couple years of grinding small bets you don't get tired of it. We're all different though

[James Marques]

Good bankroll management and volume is key. Sports betting is a high variance game. IMO, this game is not for you. You cannot be results-oriented either.

You should never be putting more than 2.5% of your bankroll on any game. It's a long term game. You are looking at the short term results which can result in making poor decisions. Poor decisions leads to losing rolls and chasing losses. You may have bad runs before it even turns around.

If only people would have listened in math class, they might actually know what the word "variance" means. Also like that "results-oriented" remark. People who think they'll be great bettors because they can "pick winners" will go broke. Eventually you'll put 100 units on the "lock of the century" and get creamed. Sports betting is the ultimate grinder's game. If you actually know what you're doing, it's kinda like being a new school card counter. Nothing automatic, just grinding out a living a little at a time.

[Easy-Rider 66]

If only people would have listened in math class, they might actually know what the word "variance" means. Also like that "results-oriented" remark. People who think they'll be great bettors because they can "pick winners" will go broke. Eventually you'll put 100 units on the "lock of the century" and get creamed. Sports betting is the ultimate grinder's game. If you actually know what you're doing, it's kinda like being a new school card counter. Nothing automatic, just grinding out a living a little at a time.

The players that accomplish that more power to them. But I like this quote form the movie Ocean's Eleven. Believe it is applicable for a majority of players. "Play Long enough the House takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes you bet big. Then you take the House."

[NotoriousBVD]

I felt like the luckiest man in the world after Miami somehow came back from the brink against the Nets in that game 5. I had cut my OKC loss from £6,006.38 to £4,272.05 but as I alluded earlier, I was mentally ready to take the complete loss which would have included my bank, making a total loss of approx. £13,000. Absolute penetrating mental madness that I can not justify apart from the fact I want my losses back.

So, if I was in that state for that bet, it begs the question why I didn't go all in on Miami and San Antonio game 2? This is where self loathing and feeling like absolute rubbish comes in...I don't feel that relief and state of mind where I'm in a position to attack, more so a position of defeat. It is both true and false because I've still to recover £4,272.05 from the OKC bet but on the other hand I am still up £3,264,54 on my original bank. I try and put myself in the position of having a net loss on my season but I can't even use that as motivation...because what was once a more palatable loss of £4,272.05 after the Heat game, has now become a figure that is consuming my thoughts on a regular basis. Missing out on potential thousands is sickening.

I feel like saying I'm laying going to lay it all here now, no going back now because I'm going all in...

Back Miami Heat versus Indiana Pacers on Saturday 24th May @ approx 1.30 to try and win £2,600...no trading out, let it ride.


...but I can't because I can see myself bottling it again and waiting for another opportunity.

[NotoriousBVD]

For the record, I bottled it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

For the record, I bottled it.

If you bottle it up for good, you will be much better off in the long term.

[NotoriousBVD]

Update time and finally a positive one. I decided I wasn't going to walk into a potential buzzsaw for the MIA/IND game 5 after bottling games 2, 3 & 4, and watching G5 unfold I'm glad I didn't (LeBron fouls etc). After beating myself up over missed opportunities, I decided to take the plunge on the Miami ML tonight and boy am I glad I did. To be honest, I said to myself right after Chris Bosh's failed series ending 3 pointer that I was going to back Miami to the hilt. Netted £2,560.29 and cut the OKC loss down to £1711.76 and feeling a lot better even though all of this, the thread, the posts, the emotional and physical toll is borne out of losing an obscene amount of money in the first place.

But onto winning it all back and then some. I'll be targeting the first Miami home game of the finals (10th June) for my next bet. I'm avoiding the SAS/OKC series, even though it's been 5 home blowouts in a row and will be in my opinion, continuing the trend of home wins to finish the series.

[NotoriousBVD]

Treated game 1 of the finals as a watch and observe assignment even though every fibre in my body wanted to back the Spurs. Even when they were leading by 4 just before LeBron's final basket I wasn't regretting it, but I sort of did immediately after he went down. Because up until then there was a strong possibility of the game flip flopping until the final seconds...or that's the story I'll stick to to help me sleep at night! So, onto game 2...

And even though the Miami Heat have not suffered back to back losses over the last 2 playoffs, it would be difficult for me to pull the trigger on the road to a mighty San Antonio outfit. Not least because of LeBron's health...and I hope he comes through game 2 without any further damage. One thing I am sure of though; back Miami in game 3

[NotoriousBVD]

It's only after witnessing Parker and Duncan miss 4 free throws in a row and then watch LeBron go to the other end and bury a three when I felt that this game was a missed opportunity. I mean, all the signs were on the wall, things I observed between game 1 and game 2 that made me lean towards the Heat...Danny Green mocking LeBron via instagram, LeCramping meme, social and TV media outlets attacking LJ and most importantly; Miami winning their last 12 playoff games after a loss, now standing at 13. I'll take comfort in the fact it wasn't settled until deep in the 4Q because a blowout would have left me feeling even more cheesed off.

Onto game 3 then. I'm hoping the one day between games will affect San Antonio more than Miami and coupled with the fact that Miami are at home and looking to take the lead for the first time in the series, it'll result in MH blitzing San Antonio on Tuesday.

[NotoriousBVD]

I was going to bet but bottled out of it. At the moment there's over 8 minutes left in the 2nd quarter and there sure as hell is a blitzing...except it's the wrong side, with SAS leading by 25 points. The game isn't over and anything can happen but I definitely would be contemplating bad things right about now.

[NotoriousBVD]

So, what's the plan then? I guess I'll write some more about what I intend to do and then update you folks in due course as to what I end up doing. Sounds great!

Just a bit of context before the game tonight...I've been feeling cheesed off that I didn't bet on Nadal to beat Djokovic....even the recent France and Portugal football friendlies, where they recorded comprehensive victories even though I am never, ever going to bet on a friendly game (or Tennis for that matter). None the less, it lead to some self criticism but not over the top. But what has transpired tonight has certainly refreshed my perspective on things. No matter how many times I tell myself things could be worse or that biding my time until the absolute correct opportunity presents itself is a good thing, there's nothing quite like not betting on a game you'll end up beating yourself over because you passed on it, only to watch it blow up in flames for once.

When this happens, not only does it create within me a sense of relief at avoiding the crippling loss, but what I then do is sort of massage my ego by giving myself a pat on the back, eventually culiminating in a sense of smugness for a split second or two. Then I think of the alternate me in that position where I have placed the bet, and the walls start to close in again, so not only do I find myself watching the game wanting San Antonio to bury Miami to help me feel better about myself for not backing them, but I also start hoping for a Heat comeback in a bid to appease the alternate me trapped in that emotional roller-coaster I am only experiencing in real-life at a fraction of what I be had I placed the bet.

The knot in my stomach is gone and waiting to be filled with more expectation on the 12th because there are no moral victories in my world...because it's either back Brazil against Croatia in the world cup opener or wait a couple-three hours later and pile in on the Heat to beat Spurs in game 4.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey Man I would bet maybe $10- $25 a game(If at all) and have some fun. What you are contemplating will not end well in the long term. Just my 2 cents.

[Seto]

Hey Man I would bet maybe $10- $25 a game(If at all) and have some fun. What you are contemplating will not end well in the long term. Just my 2 cents.

You can't actually be serious.

You're saying the guy is gonna go from betting thousands to betting 10 bucks a game? Wins won't even feel like winning if he does that because it's just 10 fukking bucks.

[Easy-Rider 66]

You can't actually be serious.

You're saying the guy is gonna go from betting thousands to betting 10 bucks a game? Wins won't even feel like winning if he does that because it's just 10 fukking bucks.

Serious as can be. Been there and done that throwing around nickels and dimes. In the long run you will most likely get burned. Now I bet around $25 max a game and are much better off. The high of winning $10 is not equivalent to a dime for sure. But when you lose the reverse is also true. Long term it ain't worth the stretch. Those who sell you the idea that it is Lie. Again just my 2 cents.

[NotoriousBVD]

I can't lower my stakes because I'm trying to make life changing coin. The flip side is I will lose life changing money if/when I lose. I accept the risk and will continue my pursuit. Or I might get fed up and cash out have a break and return further on down the line.

But with the World Cup starting, coupled with the continuation of the NBA finals, I won't be withdrawing just yet. I've targeted the following World Cup games I am comfortable placing my entire bank on. Let the suffering begin...

DATE	MATCH	APPROX ODDS	TIME	CLIMATE	DISTANCE TRAVELLED (BEFORE GAME)	GROUP GAME
12.06.14	BRAZIL vs Croatia	1.31	21:00	Normal	Cro > Bra	1
15.06.14	ARGENTINA vs Bosnia	1.41	23:00	Normal	Arg = Bos	1
17.06.14	BELGIUM vs Algeria	1.44	17:00	Normal	Alg > Bel	1
17.06.14	BRAZIL vs Mexico	1.24	20:00	Difficult	Mex > Bra	2
18.06.14	Australia vs HOLLAND	1.25	17:00	Perfect	Aus > Hol	2
18.06.14	SPAIN vs Chile	1.66	20:00	Normal	Spa > Chi	2
21.06.14	ARGENTINA vs Iran	1.12	17:00	Normal	Irn > Arg	2
21.06.14	GERMANY vs Ghana	1.28	20:00	Difficult	Ger > Gha	2
23.06.14	Australia vs SPAIN	1.15	17:00	Normal	Aus > Spa	3
23.06.14	Cameroon vs BRAZIL	1.18	21:00	Perfect	Cam > Bra	3
25.06.14	Nigeria vs ARGENTINA	1.26	17:00	Perfect	Nig > Arg	3
26.06.14	USA vs GERMANY	1.31	17:00	Difficult	USA > Ger	3