My turn at 'math guys' topic. Assuming your personal wagering system is based on your bankroll, is there a way to find how often you should increase or decrease your bet size corresponding to your confidence on a given wager? Hope question was clear enough, thanks.
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Depends what you mean by confidence!
Do you have a calculated EV or just a strong gut feeling? If the former, then dig out Ganchrow´s Think Tank threads on Kelly.
If it just a strong gut feeling, I would suggest play level stakes until you can prove to yourself statistically that these plays are worthy of increased confidence, before applying the same principles as Kelly.Comment -
Have a problem with that. To make things simpler, I assumed 60% expected winning percentage, no juice, and 5% of bankroll per wager, or one unit out of twenty total. With ten outcomes, 6 wins and 4 losses, if I adjusted the bankroll to 5% each time, I ended with 20.73 units. If I bet 5% of the original bankroll and stuck with that, I'd have 22 units (20-4+6). Does the KC cover this dilemma?Comment -
You'll know when to increase your bet size. You should feel comfortable as your bankroll grows or shrinks. Of course, betting more than your comfy with is an option.
But how is 5% the standard? Have some sack, well maybe with a huge bankroll 5% makes sense. I guess with a huge bankroll, it's more about betting enough, to make it worth your time.
So whats the math question again?blog '09-'10: 37-16: +$31,900
mlb 2010; 16-12: +$4,540
gellyhoops 2010: 10-6 +$3,150
overall: 63-34 +$40,290Comment -
Yes.Originally posted by poochiecollinsComment -
Monkeyfukk enlighten us with your unit size explanation.. Haha.
Oh wait your avatar handles that.blog '09-'10: 37-16: +$31,900
mlb 2010; 16-12: +$4,540
gellyhoops 2010: 10-6 +$3,150
overall: 63-34 +$40,290Comment -
How? Is KC not based on repeatedly changing your wager amounts based on your bankroll?Originally posted by MonkeyF0ckerYes.Originally Posted by poochiecollins
Does the KC cover this dilemma?Comment -
I don't gamble yet, though probably sometime soon. I plan to start with at least a few thousand and bet at least $500/wager. It will likely be more around 5% when I get a large bankroll, say six figures. I'd base it on how easily I can deposit more money, not just what's in the account at the time.Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE
What is the most efficient way to adjust wager amounts relative to bankroll size.So whats the math question again?Comment
