A tip for the inexperinced gambler,this is why I didn't lose on the over tonight !

lakerboy · 12-01-09, 01:33 AM

abe you dont buy points on totals grandpa.

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 01:36 AM

Gosh ,is your nose THAT wet ?

Explain that one LAKERBOY ?

lakerboy · 12-01-09, 01:37 AM

one more time- you dont buy points on totals

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 01:46 AM

I DO TO !

lyon804 · 12-01-09, 01:47 AM

As much as I don't want to agree with him, LB is right ABE. I lost on the square play also. The way to compound a square mistake is buy pts on a fukking total?? As for your information you are wrong, but if you are playing $20-$50 a game WTF buy all the pts your heart desires.

lakerboy · 12-01-09, 01:47 AM

thats why you kissed your sister you pusher

20Four7 · 12-01-09, 01:49 AM

I didn't see many 56's todays.... most had the total at 57 or better. BTW I was under that 57......

UntilTheNDofTimE · 12-01-09, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

Boys and girls,you may take this advice or not ,but try to buy a half point or more when you want to wager a total that is lying very close to a "consistent"game ending total ! Example ,on the NO Saints total ,it was sitting on 56 at this one book,and I did want to play a small amount on the over,so I bought 1 point and played over 55 instead of 56 . Should have had a winner ,right ?

But the next best thing to a winner is a push .

Also ,why spot 7 1/2 points if you may be able to spot 7 on a football spread,or buying down to the 3 from the "killer" 3 1/2 points .

especially buying off a 56

yisman · 12-01-09, 01:52 AM

"A tip for the inexperinced gambler"

Pretty square thread right here.

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

As much as I don't want to agree with him, LB is right ABE. I lost on the square play also. The way to compound a square mistake is buy pts on a fukking total?? As for your information you are wrong, but if you are playing $20-$50 a game WTF buy all the pts your heart desires.

Okay ,you boys have your opinion,but my pocketbook says you guy's are all WET !

LLXC · 12-01-09, 01:56 AM

-EV.

Buying off/on 3/7, +EV if getting right price.

LLXC · 12-01-09, 01:57 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

Okay ,you boys have your opinion,but my pocketbook says you guy's are all WET !

Today you feel like it's worth it, long term it's not.

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 02:00 AM

Okay young dumbass's,how about this one ...a book has the lowest total you have seen and it's 37 1/2 ,do you young "frankenstein" brains buy any points when you like the game over ?
Okay children ,I am waiting ?

Scorpion · 12-01-09, 02:05 AM

question about your avatar, is that really you sir?

lakerboy · 12-01-09, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Scorpion

question about your avatar, is that really you sir?

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 02:13 AM

Yes snotnose ,are you a bigot ?
Just answer the question you experienced gamblers ?

lyon804 · 12-01-09, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by yisman

"A tip for the inexperinced gambler"

Pretty square thread right here.

Originally posted by LLXC

-EV.

Buying off/on 3/7, +EV if getting right price.

Originally posted by LLXC

Today you feel like it's worth it, long term it's not.

ABE, these people are right and you are wrong, but like I said if you are a rec. player at $20-$50 a pop buy all the points your little heart desires. It is a huge mistake and cost you in the long run. The fukking game is hard enough to beat at -110 let alone laying -130. If you think you need to buy a total you need not play that game.

reno cool · 12-01-09, 02:22 AM

could have gotten that under at 25-1 in the third quarter.

1st and Ten · 12-01-09, 02:23 AM

IrishTim · 12-01-09, 02:24 AM

In NFL, the total of a game hits 37 4.63% of the time. What do you think you should do?

1st and Ten · 12-01-09, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by lyon804

ABE, these people are right and you are wrong, but like I said if you are a rec. player at $20-$50 a pop buy all the points your little heart desires. It is a huge mistake and cost you in the long run. The fukking game is hard enough to beat at -110 let alone laying -130. If you think you need to buy a total you need not play that game.

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 02:26 AM

I will also bet 20 points that all of you knowitalls are under 40 years old,so how much "experience" do you boys really have ?

1st and Ten · 12-01-09, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by IrishTim

In NFL, the total of a game hits 37 4.63% of the time. What do you think you should do?

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by IrishTim

In NFL, the total of a game hits 37 4.63% of the time. What do you think you should do?

Darn good math there Irishman !
Where did you get your percentage from ?

UntilTheNDofTimE · 12-01-09, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

I will also bet 20 points that all of you knowitalls are under 40 years old,so how much "experience" do you boys really have ?

Let me try to explain this to you.
If you buy a Point your going to be Laying -130 on Over 55.
You need to hit 57% to stay even. Whereas with the -110 you only have to hit about 52% of the time. The extra point will only benefit you a very small % of the time but will cost you so much more money

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 02:46 AM

Originally posted by UntilTheNDofTimE

Let me try to explain this to you. If you buy a Point your going to be Laying -130 on Over 55. You need to hit 57% to stay even. Whereas with the -110 you only have to hit about 52% of the time. The extra point will only benefit you a very small % of the time but will cost you so much more money

Just when is untilthendoftime ?
Okay,I am confessing,I played a hunch last night because I liked NO,but also like the over just a bit too .
The total I bought at was either 55 1/2 or 56 ,anyway ,it didn't cost that much to get that extra little edge I "thought" I might need on "that" particular game .
Probably have never bought on point's on a total that high,but just had the feeling on that game.
End of story .

UntilTheNDofTimE · 12-01-09, 02:49 AM

Basically what im saying is this
you bought a point for -110 vs -130

95% of the time that point you bought wont matter cause it would go over or under whether or not you bought the point but when you lose your losing 130 vs 110. Get it?

20Four7 · 12-01-09, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

Darn good math there Irishman !
Where did you get your percentage from ?

I don't know if it's right or wrong, but I have data going back over 20 years in NFL. I can tell you if a QB farted on MOnday night and it cost them. Data man is your friend.

But buying a total (unless it's a teaser) is usually a very -ev option.

gambleballs · 12-01-09, 02:55 AM

Buy points - 95% of the time a bad move
Buy points off a NFL total - 99% of the time a bad move
Buy points off a NFL total of 56 -

Glad I clicked this thread.

20Four7 · 12-01-09, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

Just when is untilthendoftime ?
Okay,I am confessing,I played a hunch last night because I liked NO,but also like the over just a bit too .
The total I bought at was either 55 1/2 or 56 ,anyway ,it didn't cost that much to get that extra little edge I "thought" I might need on "that" particular game .
Probably have never bought on point's on a total that high,but just had the feeling on that game.
End of story .

If you really believe you need the 1/2 point it's not worth playing the game. You playing with the brandon lang theory..... if your laying 3.5 buy down to 3.... if your laying 3 buy down to 2.5..... it's all bs because you need to line shop and then there's no need to buy.

ABEHONEST · 12-01-09, 02:58 AM

Originally posted by UntilTheNDofTimE

Basically what im saying is this you bought a point for -110 vs -130 95% of the time that point you bought wont matter cause it would go over or under whether or not you bought the point but when you lose your losing 130 vs 110. Get it?

Noooo !
This ,like I just said ,was a hunch that I might need that extra 1/2 or 1 point ,so it was a once in a blue moon wager ,and I got lucky or was it unlucky ?
Like I said above ,I don't think I have ever bought off a total that high before,however ,in come's all the snotnoses that know far more than I do about sport gambling and I felt I had to try to explain, "that you DO buy points on totals sometimes" !

If you noticed ,they never did answer the question about buying off of the 37 1/2 ?

UntilTheNDofTimE · 12-01-09, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by ABEHONEST

Noooo ! This ,like I just said ,was a hunch that I might need that extra 1/2 or 1 point ,so it was a once in a blue moon wager ,and I got lucky or was it unlucky ? Like I said above ,I don't think I have ever bought off a total that high before,however ,in come's all the snotnoses that know far more than I do about sport gambling and I felt I had to try to explain, "that you DO buy points on totals sometimes" ! If you noticed ,they never did answer the question about buying off of the 37 1/2 ?

Why would you ever buy off a number that wud give you a longterm -ev

Razz_Donkey · 12-01-09, 03:00 AM

Massive lol at the "consistent game ending totals" at 56.

20Four7 · 12-01-09, 03:02 AM

Abe the most common totals are: 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, 51, and 54. The buying of 37.5 may be a good bet depending on what you give up for that 1/2 point. You can't always say buy off it if it's too expensive.

Peace out.