All of this stat crap supporting Belichicks decision is garbage and here's why: Nowhere do these account for the specific situation. First off, they call a time out which gives the defense time to have several adjustments ready in their minds for whatever formation the Pats got in. 2nd they were in an empty set (no running back for you math guys). With Brady being a zero run threat, this was an automatic full blown pass rush by the Sam and Mike backers as evidenced by them walked up in the A gaps. They had no run threat. This cuts down on your success % tremendously because you are telling the defense this IS 100% pass.
The dbs play man because they know he has to get rid of it quick, no more than a 3 step drop. They can press and jump anything short. Also, the ball is on the right hash which practically eliminates the throw to the far X receiver on the left because of the length of the throw against man coverage and not having time against the blitz and shortens the field. You have your defenders covering the slots play with inside leverage preventing the inside release and giving the receiver only an outside release. Knowing this, he can undercut the throw to the outside. This is basically a sellout defense to stop a 2 yard pass. There were little throwing lanes as well. All 11 defenders were at the line of scrimmage. There wasn't even a deep safety.
Now, all of these 4th down conversion rates are not taking into account situations where there was NO RUN THREAT which is UNBELIEVABLY HUGE. Brady's completion % is NOT 60 or 70 % in that situation anyway. Now, they did complete the pass which amazed me because the safety was a little too loose. Faulk was the only one that wasn't blanketed which Brady probably noticed from a pre-snap read.
It was the fact that they gave the defense time to prepare and that they presented no run threat for which the defense would have to account for is what was so stupid. All of these 4th down and 2 stats aren't accounting for all of these variables. Most other situations have the defense having to play run/pass. The Colts had nothing to lose at that point so they could sell out against a short pass. You would have to compare it to 4th and goal from the 2 yardline with no time left with the offense in an empty set to find any comparable statistics.
Now, let's also remember the Pats defense had forced 2 interceptions and a punt in the 2nd half alone not to mention the other 6 punts they forced in the first half. Those have to be added in the specific situational equation. The previous drive the Colts scored on was against a soft zone or basically a prevent defense which is another variable. Most pro QBs could drive it down the field then. If the Pats punt and get after Peyton and play regular D, there is no way that chance is even 50%. I've seen estimates that the Colts had a 70% chance of scoring a TD then. Having roughly 12 possesions per game, if Peyton scores TDs on 70% of drives the Colts would average over 60 points per game, get real.
The fact is Bill outsmarted himself and got PUNKED by Peyton Manning. I think he is one of the greatest coaches in the league and one of the smartest as I have talked to him at a coaching clinic at the Un. of Alabama before but he made a dumb decision then, plain and simple.
The dbs play man because they know he has to get rid of it quick, no more than a 3 step drop. They can press and jump anything short. Also, the ball is on the right hash which practically eliminates the throw to the far X receiver on the left because of the length of the throw against man coverage and not having time against the blitz and shortens the field. You have your defenders covering the slots play with inside leverage preventing the inside release and giving the receiver only an outside release. Knowing this, he can undercut the throw to the outside. This is basically a sellout defense to stop a 2 yard pass. There were little throwing lanes as well. All 11 defenders were at the line of scrimmage. There wasn't even a deep safety.
Now, all of these 4th down conversion rates are not taking into account situations where there was NO RUN THREAT which is UNBELIEVABLY HUGE. Brady's completion % is NOT 60 or 70 % in that situation anyway. Now, they did complete the pass which amazed me because the safety was a little too loose. Faulk was the only one that wasn't blanketed which Brady probably noticed from a pre-snap read.
It was the fact that they gave the defense time to prepare and that they presented no run threat for which the defense would have to account for is what was so stupid. All of these 4th down and 2 stats aren't accounting for all of these variables. Most other situations have the defense having to play run/pass. The Colts had nothing to lose at that point so they could sell out against a short pass. You would have to compare it to 4th and goal from the 2 yardline with no time left with the offense in an empty set to find any comparable statistics.
Now, let's also remember the Pats defense had forced 2 interceptions and a punt in the 2nd half alone not to mention the other 6 punts they forced in the first half. Those have to be added in the specific situational equation. The previous drive the Colts scored on was against a soft zone or basically a prevent defense which is another variable. Most pro QBs could drive it down the field then. If the Pats punt and get after Peyton and play regular D, there is no way that chance is even 50%. I've seen estimates that the Colts had a 70% chance of scoring a TD then. Having roughly 12 possesions per game, if Peyton scores TDs on 70% of drives the Colts would average over 60 points per game, get real.
The fact is Bill outsmarted himself and got PUNKED by Peyton Manning. I think he is one of the greatest coaches in the league and one of the smartest as I have talked to him at a coaching clinic at the Un. of Alabama before but he made a dumb decision then, plain and simple.
