It sucks that some math guys have 4th grade level of football Xs and Os

[daggerkobe]

Players aren't math either. If they were, Nadal would have never lost at Roland Garros since he was 31-0 there. But he did.

Yes, every play has a 50/50 chance. If you were playing basketball and missed the first 10 shots, what are your chances of making the next shot? It's still 50/50.

[donjuan]

Players aren't math either. If they were, Nadal would have never lost at Roland Garros since he was 31-0 there. But he did.

Yes, every play has a 50/50 chance. If you were playing basketball and missed the first 10 shots, what are your chances of making the next shot? It's still 50/50.

This is signature quality stuff right here.

[The Seer]

Players aren't math either. If they were, Nadal would have never lost at Roland Garros since he was 31-0 there. But he did. Yes, every play has a 50/50 chance. If you were playing basketball and missed the first 10 shots, what are your chances of making the next shot? It's still 50/50.

I'm not a math guy dagger, but if I'm not mistaken, if you were a 60% shooter then it would actually be 60%.

[Matt Rain]

Dagger, you're basically saying that you have a 50/50 chance of winning the lottery every time you buy a ticket. You either win or you don't. No offense, but that's upsurd.

[daggerkobe]

No, the lottery is not 50/50. A coin flip is 50/50 because there's only 2 possible results: heads or tails.

A basket shot also has two possible results.... either it goes it or it doesn't. Just because you've missed all 10 shots you took doesn't mean your 11th shot has 0% chance of going in.

[Matt Rain]

Right, a basketball shot has only two possible outcomes. You either swish it or airball it at the exact same spot.

I'm not even sure that the Atari 2600 was that simplistic. Will dust off mine and let you know.

[Indecent]

Players aren't math either. If they were, Nadal would have never lost at Roland Garros since he was 31-0 there. But he did.

Yes, every play has a 50/50 chance. If you were playing basketball and missed the first 10 shots, what are your chances of making the next shot? It's still 50/50.

Just to clarify... Whoever leads the league in shooting percentage is the luckiest person that year?

[hhsilver]

I think we have already established it after 2 days of vigorous arguing. People who know, coach or play football believe it was the wrong decision. People who never played sports and are nerds sitting behind a computer analyzing meaningless stats say it was the right decision.

Pavy, I know you just like to be ornery and really don't believe the above:

As someone who has a math degree and played football, I would like everyone to take a break from this discussion to admire one of my heroes.

from wiki -- please look him up --

Frank Beall Ryan (born July 12, 1936 in Fort Worth, Texas) is a retired American football quarterback in the National Football League who played for the Los Angeles Rams (1958-1961), Cleveland Browns (1962-1968) and Washington Redskins (1969-1970). Although he led the Browns to their last National Football League title in 1964, Ryan is best remembered for being perhaps the only Ph.D. in mathematics to play in the league, completing a doctorate at Rice University (1965) with the dissertation A Characterization of the Set of Asymptotic Values of a Function Holomorphic in the Unit Disc, advised by Gerald Mac Lane.[1]

[pavyracer]

hhsiver,

When you played football have you ever whispered to you coach's ear the probabilities of going on 4th and 2 when winning by 6 with 2 min to go instead of punting. I'm curious to know what your coach would have said or done.

I have a math degree but when I played sports statistics during the game was not part of the game plan. Common sense always overruled.

[hhsilver]

Good answer , Pavy, you got me there.

I just wanted people to know about Frank Ryan.

[tacomax]

This thread can't die.