Just when you are playing a game of poker, in sports betting you are playing a game of incomplete information. You gather as much information as you can then make your decision and hope for the best. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Money management, watching line movement, getting a good number, and good old fashioned luck all play a part of it. To say that capping has no bearing or weight at all is a little silly.
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I went a few times all in till I raised the balance to $200. Then hit a few parlays and some dog ML's and then went all in with the Falcons.Originally posted by BobHarveyComment -
seems like dumb luck to me
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I got half that in props alone today (with a sweet -.05% hold) and then an unusual phone call from wally at the greek.Originally posted by Justin7
Sportsbooks don't like people that only bet props/derivatives/off numbers. Start handicapping and throw them some regular action and they might left you stick around longer.Comment -
If I told you I used a computer model with 1000 parameters and looked for steam and shopped for lines would you think I was smarter? It was a fukking $45 free play. Should I have bet $1 per game for money management?Originally posted by TPowellseems like dumb luck to meComment -
well when you say you hit a few parlays and ML dogs, its impossible not to say dumb luckComment -
I've learned to watch the lines and follow certain trends. So it's easy for me to see where the smart money and big money is going, as well as seeing when the bookies are trying to trap you.Comment -
would love to hear it then investor, almost impossible to really know where the "smart" money isComment -
Keeping it simple. It's not brain surgery.Originally posted by pavyracer
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Originally posted by durito
In their mind you are 'cheating.'
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It wasn't luck. It was good handicapping. I hit Arkansas, Virginia, Iowa St, Cincinnati, Tulsa, Chiefs, Saints, Falcons. Why can't someone win with pure handicapping superiority?Originally posted by TPowellComment -
Exactly.Originally posted by duritoComment -
Justin7 is correct with the shopping and stick with good value...dogs in NHL for example...check out the NHL season contest and check my record...not much over 50% around 54% but also check out how many units I'm up, value shopping is the answer.Originally posted by daneblazerafter paying the juice, 10 steps forward and 9 steps back is breaking even
Today was also good luck with NFL moneyline plays and when to take them...many had Baltimore on the money line but why? +125 or +130 the extra $45 wasn't worth it to me I would have rather paid -110 and get the 3 points or like I did bought 1/2 point and a little extra for insurance even though i didn't need it.
Also look at open lines and movement in CFB...I had 5 games that opened at one number and moved more than 2 points and all covered...5-0 because of multiple reasons this is an auto play for me...NFL had Houston open at +4 then moved up to +5.5 then went down to +3.5. I had info that I really loved Hou and WED got it at +5.5 and sprinkled the ml. Then dropped to +3.5 so I pounced on it again.
HOMEWORK + VALUE= $$$$
If it's not there lay off and you will make $$$.
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Pavy my point exactly.Originally posted by pavyracer
I would never wan't to deny or disrespect those who rely on math models and projections and parameters and derivates, et all. It just seems to me that all that time invested isn't going to yield returns much higher than a guy who is sports savy, manages money and doesn'over analyze. Over analyzation is the thing that drives me crazy, yet I know it's a the holy grail for some.
I like to think I do a decent job capping the games. My problem has always been betting on too many games and money management.Comment -
Originally posted by cgars1Justin7 is correct with the shopping and stick with good value...dogs in NHL for example...check out the NHL season contest and check my record...not much over 50% around 54% but also check out how many units I'm up, value shopping is the answer.
Today was also good luck with NFL moneyline plays and when to take them...many had Baltimore on the money line but why? +125 or +130 the extra $45 wasn't worth it to me I would have rather paid -110 and get the 3 points or like I did bought 1/2 point and a little extra for insurance even though i didn't need it.
Also look at open lines and movement in CFB...I had 5 games that opened at one number and moved more than 2 points and all covered...5-0 because of multiple reasons this is an auto play for me...NFL had Houston open at +4 then moved up to +5.5 then went down to +3.5. I had info that I really loved Hou and WED got it at +5.5 and sprinkled the ml. Then dropped to +3.5 so I pounced on it again.
HOMEWORK + VALUE= $$$$
If it's not there lay off and you will make $$$.
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Pavy, you were fine until you said parlays. Parlays are dumb luck bets IMOComment -
Handicapping is the art of flipping a coin to determine which team is going to have more INTs and fumbles, key penalties etcOriginally posted by BobHarveyComment -
"I'm broke and have no money to back up my ridiculous assertions" would have been a lot more accurate. Why is wanting to use Pinny funny?Originally posted by TPowellnot going to put any money on it as hot as I am right now. Wait, you're wanting to use Pinny?Comment -
Bingo!Originally posted by durito
Throwing in 0% EV crap is worthwhile, because books tolerate your other stuff better. Adds a little to volatility, and a ton to longevity.Comment -
Even more worthwhile if it is even the slightest bit negatively correlated with any of your other bets.Throwing in 0% EV crap is worthwhile, because books tolerate your other stuff better. Adds a little to volatility, and a ton to longevity.Comment -
Originally posted by donjuan
Donny, same applies to you as it does Nicky. Until you do something on this forum OUTSIDE of run your sperm collector, please cease to make idiotic statements. I'm up 25 units the past 2 weekends at $50 a unit (not a heavy bettor but oh well).
Are you serious? Nobody in the U.S. can use Pinny so it would make no sense to use it. Also, of course you could do well when betting games on Pinny.Comment -
this is where shopping for best # comes into effect. over 100,000 games, all those fumbles and INT's will mean nothing. it will all even out where you end up taking the money whether you are lucky or unlucky..Originally posted by bettilimbroke999
the extra pt or 2 here and there you get will balance out all the INT's and fumbles to put you in the positive.Comment -
If your handicapping gives no picks yes, by definition, it's a waste of time.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
Correct , however the 'secret' is money management! If you're not in the game when it evens out then you are fuukedComment -
I prefer making $, rather than units and forum cred.Donny, same applies to you as it does Nicky. Until you do something on this forum OUTSIDE of run your sperm collector, please cease to make idiotic statements. I'm up 25 units the past 2 weekends at $50 a unit (not a heavy bettor but oh well).
We can use 5 Dimes reduced lines if you prefer.Are you serious? Nobody in the U.S. can use Pinny so it would make no sense to use it. Also, of course you could do well when betting games on Pinny.Comment -
forum cred? Look at my season thread, EVERY pick made before gametime, no bullshitting with record, etc. Donny, get a clue palComment -
Couldn't agree more.Originally posted by Nicky Santoro
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Nicky, what sports does gettin the best line work best in? I'll try it next week (not betting it) and see what happens but I'm pretty sure it wont be successful without other criteriaComment -
So how many units you expect to be up in the next 2 weekends?Originally posted by TPowellbird bird da bird's da wordComment -
nba sides..Originally posted by TPowell
nfl, when the spread is 3.Comment -
Let's assume you really are a 55% handicapper. Why are you smart enough to do this (which is much harder) and not to grasp a basic money management strategy which should have you making a few hundred grand a year in no time.Originally posted by TPowellComment -
its all luck only one that wins in the long run is the bookieComment -
You'd have to define "getting the best line".Originally posted by TPowell
Or you could just look at past years and see what adding 1pt to the closing # does to ATS results. Try it in college basketball.Comment -
Nicky, that makes A LOT more sense pal. If somebody wants to bring it up, I'll be glad to listenComment -
Powell,
Why won't you respond to the 5 Dimes part of my post?Comment
