Is handicapping bullshit?

[Justin7]

I look at the return I get from handicapping. Up, down, up. 10 steps forward, 9 steps back. You win, albeit slowly.

Then I look at the returns for smashing derivatives and props. A+ books leave money laying around all the time - all you have to do is analyze a couple databases, bend over and pick up the money.

Shopping... A great capper might add 3-4% to his win rate. A good shopper can do this as well.

So I ask... is capping a complete waste of time for someone that wants to make money?

[007Fatty]

id say it is! because anything can happen,
but if your smart with live betting and you can keep yourself calm
you can make good cash there. but you gotta be smart.

[daneblazer]

after paying the juice, 10 steps forward and 9 steps back is breaking even

[Justin7]

after paying the juice, 10 steps forward and 9 steps back is breaking even

Not if you shop

[onthewhat]

Do A+ books limit you on props? Or are their limits already low enough that they don't care?

[StraitShooter]

Its a myth

Nobody caps turnovers or missed field goals

most overated term in sports

[Thor4140]

Single biggest waste of time in my lie.

[Nicky Santoro]

So I ask... is capping a complete waste of time for someone that wants to make money?

you know my answer, so i won't even say.. capping is so stupid. i laugh at people that say, i love the dodgers today, or i love Eagles today.. 18-1 vs division, 12-0 on grass.. lol.. that all means squat.. that's why there's a spread there...you cannot predict this shit.. no one can.. i dont care what your name is.. just look at today.. i am sure all the cappers knew today that BUF would win outright in NYJ as double digit dogs and also knew that Oak would beat Phi outright as a 14 pt dog.. i bet all the good cappers knew this.


people should realize that gambling has zero to do with predicting who is going to win a game.. it's all about #'s, #'s and #'s.. that's it.. it's all about getting the best line, having every edge line wise you can get and then letting the percentages allow you to bring home the money, which you will if you follow these rules in sports gambling..

keep trying to predict who is going to win and then enjoy that soup dinner at the soup kitchen cause you'll be eventually there, I PROMISE..

[mmike032]

robbing and stealing is much more lucrative

[Cougar Bait]

I think money management is the key. Too many guys get in over their heads on a "LOCK" or blow their bankroll in the first few weeks. Some don't even play with bankrolls. There are many things you can do to win at gambling, but the first step is managing your money by using a graded system and sticking to it.

[lakerboy]

justin is this nfl related only?

[DwightShrute]

a myth

just like the the loch ness monster, abominable snowman, Sashquatch and Eskimos

[Sam Odom]

'Capping major sports sides is a waste of time

[TPowell]

you guys are on crack. Why do I destroy college sports every year? I get great lines for the most part, but even getting the best lines in some sports can't save you if you can't pickem boys

[InTheHole]

Justin....did you have a losing day?

[MartinBlank]

Too many variables that you can't control to "cap".

Shop for your best number at the best value and that is the best you can hope for.

[mathdotcom]

this is why justin is biggest square on forum

[donjuan]

but even getting the best lines in some sports can't save you if you can't pickem boys

You've said this before and it's completely untrue.

As to Justin's question, it depends on your bankroll, your info and your ability to interpret that info.

[TPowell]

don juan, pick every game and try to get the best lines and see what happens in college football.

[Justin7]

Justin....did you have a losing day?

I had a fantastic weekend - one of the best in a LONG time. And my models gave me exactly ZERO picks.

[InTheHole]

I had a fantastic weekend - one of the best in a LONG time. And my models gave me exactly ZERO picks.

Sometimes the best bet is no bet my friend.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Bah. Limits on props and derivatives are garbage. Handicapping, if it's done right (not the "handicapping" Nicky refers to), leads to greater returns. You could use props and derivatives as supplements. Confining yourself to them when you no longer have access to slower moving books will seriously reduce your returns.

[Shortstop]

Sports betting is a hobby. I go with my gut feeling.

Everything is a coin flip anyhow.

[MonkeyF0cker]

I had a fantastic weekend - one of the best in a LONG time. And my models gave me exactly ZERO picks.

Eh? Not even in NCAAF? How?

I wouldn't put too much weight into one weekend...

[BobHarvey]

This is one the best threads ever started at SBR and it was started by one of the brightest guys on the site. After years of agonizing over this, I've come to the decision that money management, discipline and finding the best lines are the only things to worry about. All the rest of it is crap.

Occasionally you catch a break with a weather condition that can affect a game dramatically. Maybe in the NBA there's the last minute lineup change or DNP. Those are two for examples but there's probably many more.

For me all it takes is doing some light reading during the week. I' try to take in so much. I'll read a few articles here and learn as much as I can about a particular game. But long gone are the days when I pushed my brain to the brink of overload. I call it simplifying.

Let me state the obvious. One team is going to cover and one isn't. If you manage your money, have any semblance of discipline and get the best line even possible, you can make a few bucks. I'm convinced of it. No first quarters or second halves or which team to score first or any of the prop oriented crap. Stay away from it.

In respect to the Dr. Bob's of the world, yard per carry or passing or teams tendency on third down DOESN'T MEAN SQUAT if your kicker misses a chip shot field goal.

I know each guy has his own style of doing things. But don't most of us agree that the majority of this handicapping stuff is a waste of time. I know I do. Since I've gone with "less is more" (in terms of games wagered) and keep it as simple as possible, my winning percentage has gone up and so has my profit.

What I do when I play the contests here at SBR is a lot different than what I do when I'm playing with my own money. I've made a very modest +10 units in the NFL this season hitting 61% and I've been 58-61% over the past three or four years. The numbers are documented but that's not the point.

Over the years, I’ve put in a lot of useless hours trying to "do it" like the Dr. Bobs of the world. Only when I started to do my thing did it start to click. To paraphrase Santoro most of the time it's pretty cut and dried. You win or your lose and regardless of all the hours and numbers crunching it’s just out of your hands.

That's just my opinion.

[WileOut]

Stock market historically produces 10-11% ROI per year. Yes its been down lately but it always rebounds. When its down is the time to invest.

If you can't beat this 11% by gambling then simply park your money in the S&P 500 index fund (close enough mirror of the entire US stock market) and add to it when you can. Save 15% of your income. Its not as fun as gambling but for over 95% of all people it is the right financial move.

P.S. The above advice is assuming you are younger than 35 or so. Older you get you may need to be more conservative with your investments.

[Justin7]

Bah. Limits on props and derivatives are garbage.

My group got in over 100k in derivatives in under 30 man hours. The ROR on this "easy to find" stuff is over 15%, but some of it has an underwater period of 4+ weeks.

[donjuan]

don juan, pick every game and try to get the best lines and see what happens in college football.

You're kidding, right? Here's a proposal for a bet with you.

We use a random number generator or some other random method for which team I'll pick for every game ATS and for whether I take the over or the under on every game. At Tuesday on 5 PM Eastern (or any other day/time you specify) we use the Pinnacle lines and you give me 15 cents better for each side/total the computer randomly selected for me. If I am up for the week I win. If I'm down you win. 1k to match 1k escrowed with a reputable poster preferably or as an x-bet at Matchbook. We can do this every week for the rest of the year if you like.

[eidolon]

Its easy stuff...anyone can do it. Just look for the edge.
I think more people should bet more. Get an idea, and run with it. Anyone can win, anyone

[Nicky Santoro]

donny, leave this kid alone.. what you trying to do, hustle him? he's 15 for christ sakes. he's a kid.. he doesn't even belong in this thread..


powers, get the hell outta here, it's bed time..

[TPowell]

not going to put any money on it as hot as I am right now. Wait, you're wanting to use Pinny?

[TPowell]

donny, leave this kid alone.. what you trying to do, hustle him? he's 15 for christ sakes. he's a kid.. he doesn't even belong in this thread..


powers, get the hell outta here, it's bed time..

hey Nicky, I'm up around 25 units the past 2 weeks, whenever you do something outside of running your sperm collector, let me know

[MonkeyF0cker]

My group got in over 100k in derivatives in under 30 man hours. The ROR on this "easy to find" stuff is over 15%, but some of it has an underwater period of 4+ weeks.

I understand. But you can do that at least tenfold and in less time with sides and totals.

[pavyracer]

I don't know if handicapping is bullshit but I turned my $45 BTP winnings into $950 in 5 days. Maybe I shouldn't have handicapped the games.

[BobHarvey]

Define handicapping? I'd be curious to know how you did it, your approach, etc.