Sitting on a $1.2M payout if Zverev/Keys win the AO with no cashout safety net

[mjsuax13]

Hey at least they give you those limits. lol 34k on a scoring prop? Kind of crazy and I'm VIP at both DK and FD my limits aren't near yours. Sorry for the beat yesterday. Hopefully you don't spiral Tom it was a good bet.

Right?!?! William Hill/BETMGM NEVADA would tell me to piss off.

[MalikHusam]

Right?!?! William Hill/BETMGM NEVADA would tell me to piss off.

This account is a glitch in the matrix. He should sell shares to pros and charge 30% profit, risk free.

[biggie12]

Man it is nice to see this in here. Really sound thinking.

Multiple posters in here should print this out and read it as often as possible.

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

[str]

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

Totally agree on all counts Biggie.

[Optional]

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

Draftkings got sick of waiting for him to lose some back after a year and collared him.

[mjsuax13]

Draftkings got sick of waiting for him to lose some back after a year and collared him.

That’s exactly it. FD heading that direction.

[mjsuax13]

Wow, this is the best advice I ever read on this forum and I've been here way longer than 2022. This is sound advice Dougie. Don't piss it away it's a marathon not a sprint bro. There will be other shots.

He’s just not interested in the marathon but it is great advice.

[Doug tushyterror]

problem is alot on this forum don't even understand what risk of ruin is. Which is honestly pretty sad it's not like this place is like SM and it's all teenagers and 20-25 year olds. 95% of forum I'd say is 35+ and been betting for 10 plus years

I feel like Doug doesn't want to put in the work everyday. He wants that quick payout and isn't scared to risk it all. It's a crazy way to be betting. Even for a multi millionaire to be betting 30-50k on a parlay is just asking for trouble. There is a reason they allow him such high limits on those props.

Totally agree on all counts Biggie.

He’s just not interested in the marathon but it is great advice.

With all due respect biggie, you couldn't possibly be more off base. If it’s all about the quick payout & not wanting to put in the work everyday, there's no chance in hell I'd be up almost 200k combined lifetime in both books. DK even limited me to peanuts after those 2 bets that I WD everything (left $5 to stream) & switched back to FD.



If I have the bankroll which I clearly do, why wouldn't I occasionally take shots at a 7 figure payout if I sense the opportunity. This is only the 2nd time that I did so putting over 10k in both times & they were reasonably close to hitting. (See post # 155 for that 2.65M payout last May that missed by 1 leg..Nuggets to make Finals) As for this 1, this was the sharpest bet I could possibly make given the payout & how much I risked. Once I won my Keys/Sinner hedge for 132k, I was in a spot that every gambler on the planet would give their left nut for..132k guaranteed with a shot at 1.2M. On top of that FD never offered a cashout (should've been at least 300k since I could've theoretically put 900k on Sinner at -300 for a guaranteed 300k payout on whoever wins). Based on everything I just laid out, I have no idea what you could possibly criticize.

[ARCHIVADO98]

The only issue with your last post is that 900k to win 300k is only theoretic, and the book knows it, and you have to pay for the convenience.

It's crazy they didn't even offer, I agree (but the number you'd see would probably be ridiculously low if you're just basing it off of the finals betting line)

Is it possible cashouts of 100k (or 200k) or more are never automatic, and there's an admin override feature that your book just chose to ignore on this occasion? Big balls move if so

[ARCHIVADO98]

I mean getting down 30k on a tennis match - even of this magnitude - without affecting the price? GL with that.

300? That's just mindboggling and outlandish. Alternate dougy reality lol

[2Sweeet]

This account is a glitch in the matrix. He should sell shares to pros and charge 30% profit, risk free.

This is a great point. He won't understand that. I never heard of limits like this on Props especially.

[2Sweeet]

I mean getting down 30k on a tennis match - even of this magnitude - without affecting the price? GL with that.

300? That's just mindboggling and outlandish. Alternate dougy reality lol

I disagree with this. I could of got down 69k s8 at the book he was playing at on the Aussie Girl's Finals. I only could do a $5700 parlay on the 2 matches though and I'm a VIP at this book for over 4 years? I have no clue how he get's the limit's he does? 34k on a random NBA scoring prop seems way crazy.. but more power to him.

[EvagorasP]

Props limit for OP

Is there a max bet button on your acct? How much can you put on Saquon Barkley under 115 rush yards -115?

[EvagorasP]

I disagree with this. I could of got down 69k s8 at the book he was playing at on the Aussie Girl's Finals. I only could do a $5700 parlay on the 2 matches though and I'm a VIP at this book for over 4 years? I have no clue how he get's the limit's he does? 34k on a random NBA scoring prop seems way crazy.. but more power to him.

Maybe he lost half a mill on that account, or they think he's a celebrity?

[str]

With all due respect biggie, you couldn't possibly be more off base. If it’s all about the quick payout & not wanting to put in the work everyday, there's no chance in hell I'd be up almost 200k combined lifetime in both books. DK even limited me to peanuts after those 2 bets that I WD everything (left $5 to stream) & switched back to FD.



If I have the bankroll which I clearly do, why wouldn't I occasionally take shots at a 7 figure payout if I sense the opportunity. This is only the 2nd time that I did so putting over 10k in both times & they were reasonably close to hitting. (See post # 155 for that 2.65M payout last May that missed by 1 leg..Nuggets to make Finals) As for this 1, this was the sharpest bet I could possibly make given the payout & how much I risked. Once I won my Keys/Sinner hedge for 132k, I was in a spot that every gambler on the planet would give their left nut for..132k guaranteed with a shot at 1.2M. On top of that FD never offered a cashout (should've been at least 300k since I could've theoretically put 900k on Sinner at -300 for a guaranteed 300k payout on whoever wins). Based on everything I just laid out, I have no idea what you could possibly criticize.

I do wish you luck Doug. I really do. But I hope you have an exit strategy from betting like this down the road. I am now 70. I have been gambling since I was about 15. I was in that industry for 26 years as a thoroughbred horse trainer. Everyday. Not necessarily betting tickets, but gambling on horse flesh in general. One thing that was lost on me, and is lost on most, is that when you get older, this just cannot sustain over time. But the bigger problem is, you, your body, and your energy cannot sustain either. Without Social security, and putting money into it now and continually, as well as a retirement account, things will not be cool when you are older. Home values are important to be a part of when you are young. And etc.,etc.

I know this is an old fart telling you something you do know, but really do not want to acknowledge because it sucks. Yes! It does suck. But when you hit that age, you will look back and be so thankful it is in place for you. Or not. But what you will find out is, either way, it is now at that older age that there is nothing you can do about it because it is too late. I was lucky, I made it. I have a bunch of friends that did not fair nearly as well. Ultimately it is your call. I wish you luck with that.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey Doug I also wish you well. too. But take a long look at what STR is saying. He knows the deal long term deal with gambling, and with gambling that appears to be above one's pay grade. And the reality that you may face down the line. He is one of the smarter players on this board hands down. I hope you heed his advice. Take care.

[MalikHusam]

Dougy probably already making 50 2-teamers for Roland Garros

[Doug tushyterror]

The only issue with your last post is that 900k to win 300k is only theoretic, and the book knows it, and you have to pay for the convenience.

It's crazy they didn't even offer, I agree (but the number you'd see would probably be ridiculously low if you're just basing it off of the finals betting line)

Is it possible cashouts of 100k (or 200k) or more are never automatic, and there's an admin override feature that your book just chose to ignore on this occasion? Big balls move if so

Then ask yourself this. Why did they offer a cashout that was over 61% of the payout on the hedge parlay just needing Sinner & none on the ones needing Zverev? It should be obvious that there was a calculated decision/gamble in risk assessment that 100% banked on Sinner winning willing to risk max. exposure on a 1.2M payout instead of trying to be buy me out with any amount. Do you think that would've been the case if I stood to win 1.2M on a Keys/Sinner parlay? Probably be looking at a minimum 750k cashout.

[Doug tushyterror]

Dougy probably already making 50 2-teamers for Roland Garros

Yeah cuz that's how I settled on Keys/Zverev. 49 failed 2-teamers to finally get to that one to perfectly hedge.

[biggie12]

With all due respect biggie, you couldn't possibly be more off base. If it’s all about the quick payout & not wanting to put in the work everyday, there's no chance in hell I'd be up almost 200k combined lifetime in both books. DK even limited me to peanuts after those 2 bets that I WD everything (left $5 to stream) & switched back to FD.



If I have the bankroll which I clearly do, why wouldn't I occasionally take shots at a 7 figure payout if I sense the opportunity. This is only the 2nd time that I did so putting over 10k in both times & they were reasonably close to hitting. (See post # 155 for that 2.65M payout last May that missed by 1 leg..Nuggets to make Finals) As for this 1, this was the sharpest bet I could possibly make given the payout & how much I risked. Once I won my Keys/Sinner hedge for 132k, I was in a spot that every gambler on the planet would give their left nut for..132k guaranteed with a shot at 1.2M. On top of that FD never offered a cashout (should've been at least 300k since I could've theoretically put 900k on Sinner at -300 for a guaranteed 300k payout on whoever wins). Based on everything I just laid out, I have no idea what you could possibly criticize.

alright continue doing what your doing... I hope you eventually get to where you want to be.

Not gonna explain it more because it doesn't make a difference at the end of the day.

[Doug tushyterror]

alright continue doing what your doing... I hope you eventually get to where you want to be.

Not gonna explain it more because it doesn't make a difference at the end of the day.

Fair enough, let's just agree to disagree.

[kostasblues]

Parlay Sinner and a random woman for 50k next 3-4 slams, you're going to hit one

[Optional]

Fair enough, let's just agree to disagree.

So many bettors don't get that there are a bunch of motivations for gambling. And grinding out a consistent profit might sound smart, but some people already have a job and want to gamble for other reasons. Some people want low risk, some people prefer the focus be high rewards. Some people enjoy their fav sports more with a few bucks on them. Each to their own.

Parlay Sinner and a random woman for 50k next 3-4 slams, you're going to hit one

I don't think I would take any Sinner futures before his drug case is resolved.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Doug, you should have just put your money in crypto/stocks years ago and you'd likely be a millionaire by now.

[Optional]

Doug, you should have just put your money in crypto/stocks years ago and you'd likely be a millionaire by now.

He probably still has enough to do that and hit his target over the next few years.

Not as exciting as 1.2million buck freerolls though!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

He probably still has enough to do that and hit his target over the next few years.

Not as exciting as 1.2million buck freerolls though!

This is stating the obvious but it's not going to be as easy starting now as if you got in 5-10 years ago. There are still profits to be made but you pretty much missed the boat if you did not get in yet.

[Optional]

This is stating the obvious but it's not going to be as easy starting now as if you got in 5-10 years ago. There are still profits to be made but you pretty much missed the boat if you did not get in yet.

You already know that I was thinking that at $30, $100, $1000, $2500 when we were in DR. Thankfully I didn't think $7000 to $10000 was missed the boat and got onboard. Then had another go at 17-23.

I can't think of anything else I feel as safe with as BTC that has any potential to grow 5x in a reasonable timeframe. If USA runs with the crypto ball and others follow, like India and the middle east oil nations, I think that has some potential to happen this term.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

You already know that I was thinking that at $30, $100, $1000, $2500 when we were in DR. Thankfully I didn't think $7000 to $10000 was missed the boat and got onboard. Then had another go at 17-23.

I can't think of anything else I feel as safe with as BTC that has any potential to grow 5x in a reasonable timeframe. If USA runs with the crypto ball and others follow, like India and the middle east oil nations, I think that has some potential to happen this term.

I was right there with you and thought the same thing over the years...

At the current price, it is going to take a lot to 2x-5x but it will probably happen at some point. Not in a huge rush anymore, I'm happy to just sit back and have it working for me and see what happens down the line.

[pavyracer]

I remember cashing points for BTC 5-6 years ago at the store and it was in the $3,000 to $4,000 range. Those points are now worth 25-30 times more if you kept the BTC instead of gambling it away. That's why I kept cashing out before the store closed suddenly and some guys ended up losing all their 6 digit balances here.

[biggie12]

This is stating the obvious but it's not going to be as easy starting now as if you got in 5-10 years ago. There are still profits to be made but you pretty much missed the boat if you did not get in yet.

Nonsense. There is money to be made everyday. 13 APY on stable coins. If people learned how to properly use DEX they would not need a bank account

[Steelers05]

I remember cashing points for BTC 5-6 years ago at the store and it was in the $3,000 to $4,000 range. Those points are now worth 25-30 times more if you kept the BTC instead of gambling it away. That's why I kept cashing out before the store closed suddenly and some guys ended up losing all their 6 digit balances here.

Don't think about it, only makes it worse. I figured it out one day at work about 5-6 years back where I had 15 bitcoins worth $300 each (probably 9-10 years back) at the time so $4500 and when I figured it out would have had close to $800k, even worse recently it would be worth 1.5 mill. Instead I will work until the day I die, lol.

[Sdotbold]

Don't think about it, only makes it worse. I figured it out one day at work about 5-6 years back where I had 15 bitcoins worth $300 each (probably 9-10 years back) at the time so $4500 and when I figured it out would have had close to $800k, even worse recently it would be worth 1.5 mill. Instead I will work until the day I die, lol.

There are a lot of guys in that same boat !!!

[blankoblanco]

Don't think about it, only makes it worse. I figured it out one day at work about 5-6 years back where I had 15 bitcoins worth $300 each (probably 9-10 years back) at the time so $4500 and when I figured it out would have had close to $800k, even worse recently it would be worth 1.5 mill. Instead I will work until the day I die, lol.

I feel your pain, but if it makes you feel any better, that's just how investing has always worked. Sure, it's not always crypto, it could be you or your parents who missed out on Microsoft or Apple or Google or whatever. It all comes down to hindsight eventually. If we knew what would happen it'd be easy.

IMO there were many ways the U.S. gov could have thwarted crypto and made those investments completely tank, it just didn't end up going that way.

[BigDaniil]

Don't think about it, only makes it worse. I figured it out one day at work about 5-6 years back where I had 15 bitcoins worth $300 each (probably 9-10 years back) at the time so $4500 and when I figured it out would have had close to $800k, even worse recently it would be worth 1.5 mill. Instead I will work until the day I die, lol.

Did you get bitcoin as payment for you 'normal job' or 'won gambling'?

Either way if you never save anything you'll never have a chance to get on the 'next big thing'. And if you gamble, chances of saving anything are slim to none.

[BigDaniil]

I feel your pain, but if it makes you feel any better, that's just how investing has always worked. Sure, it's not always crypto, it could be you or your parents who missed out on Microsoft or Apple or Google or whatever. It all comes down to hindsight eventually. If we knew what would happen it'd be easy.

IMO there were many ways the U.S. gov could have thwarted crypto and made those investments completely tank, it just didn't end up going that way.

Comes down to having the money to invest. Even if you're very bad at investing, you'll be better off than most, if you manage to set some money aside (rather than upgrading your car or moving into a better house) and keep trying to figure out the money game.