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Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
SALUD Chuck. This isn't exactly football related but all these breaks, and such coming up for sports (mlb, wnba) it's going to be a 2-week layoff, with a few exceptions. with fewer options books are going to be sharper. Taking the wife up to Montana for the huckleberry festival in Kalispell, MT.
GL ChuckComment -
1* NWern -3.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...MiaOH off a season where they won the MAC and finished 11-3. Name QB returns, they'll be a trendy dog pick.
...Redhawks lose their secret weapon. ALAB poached Groza Award winner Nicholson in the transfer portal. MIA will be without a kicker who made 27/28 FG last season.
...NWern QB Wright has track speed. He will put stress on a MAC defense.
...I count only two MAC wins over Big10 in the L5 years. One of them was the last meeting for MiaOH @ NWern.
...Wildcats will be on alert. Home Fav price looks cheap.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I crossed referenced some of your picks... TCU - seems a common thread. Pitt/Kent State Under seems a solid bet. My system has OSU 39-0 which obviously doesn't cover the 50.5. My system only picked 6 games. It did have Western Kentucky covering versus Bama and it had Oklahoma winning by 50. My picks are worth looking at it might be a good balance.
They are on another thread. I only start betting week 4.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Salud, us. Thanks for the note. Good Luck on your modelling.
I can say that this stuff is not easy. And I don't claim to have a Coll FB rating that rips up the ATS line.
I have had some historical success betting into the Season-opener games. It's sometimes as simple as the oddsmaker not fully adjusting for the changes from the off-season.
us, you reference the Akron/OhioSt game. I personally think that's a tough game to bet. Total mismatch, so it's just a question of How Much? Klatt mentioned that ELEVEN Buckeye players turned down the NFL draft to come back. Addition of CB Downs from Alab, it's just a question of margin.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Check out my numbers... see what you think...
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Hi, us. I see the thread:
My opinion is that it's very tough to get the math right on the Season openers. So many moving parts.
This year more than ever, the teams are tied to Coaching changes. Some teams literally lost half the players from last year's roster.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
us, some random comments as I view your output. These are just MY opinions:
1) Nevada should be improved. They picked up some Transfer portal guys.
...SMU is off a huge year. I think they're over-hyped.
...I'm waiting to hear who wins the NEV qb job. I view Lewis as a stiff.
2) Steele was surprisingly not that hi on Drake Maye (no Carol).
...He thinks that the QB dropoff won't be too bad.
...Steele likes this UNC team, so the dog might be value.
3) TCU is on Steele's Most Improved list.
...Could be a Frog bounceback after hi in 2022 and lo in 2023.
...I just don't like laying those points in a Road Fav travel game.
4) VATech will be a very popular betting team.
...Are the Hokies being over-bet?
...Vandy is backing on the NMSt Transfer Padia. They're building their offense around him.
5) I'd be very surprised to see OhioU win @Syra.
...QB Rourke went to Indiana.
...OhioU would be one of the big transition teams. Not much left from last year's team.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I don't value first week... I am just posting to get my fingers wet... I don't bet until Week 4. I was very surprised at the OU game also... I don't think they win... but one thing I do is remain unbiased. Week 4 and beyond will determine whether I am dialed or not.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
I think he knew that. He was comparing Nebraska QB to an FCS average.Comment -
I need some feedback on something I have been wrestling with for years. I still have not achieved clarity. Right now my model is fine tuned to produce the most unit wins versus the money outlayed.
I am not convinced I am right. By betting more games... rather than less you diversify your portfolio so if a bad week happens you are still ok. Obviously, I want the most amount of wins with the least amount of risk.
However, if I am betting 50 games versus 7... it spreads the risk... I was a stock broker at one time in my life and I understand the value of diversification... even if I don't practice it personally.
Is 50 games at 58% better than 10 games at 70%?
Any reasonable opinions appreciated?
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
I'll offer up an opinion. A great metric to shoot for = # Standard Deviations to the Right.
...If you're +2.00 or +3.00 Std Dev to the right of Random, you can feel confident that your model is beating Randomness.
Start with N. Random coin-flip gives p=.50. Variance = npq. Standard Dev = Sqrt (VAR).
In practice, you don't want to be betting too many games. You want to isolate value.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
By betting more games... rather than less you diversify your portfolio so if a bad week happens you are still ok. Obviously, I want the most amount of wins with the least amount of risk. R-Adjust down for volume. More in the same sport, same type wager is not diverse. If it's a side-vs-total, then its slightly different
I was a stock broker at one time in my life and I understand the value of diversification... even if I don't practice it personally. R-Try explaining a high dividend income chasing investor strategy to a bogle head growth investorComment -
Appreciate the feedback from both of you. I have decided to value win percentage 4x how many games I bet but I am valuing the amount of games I bet.
The more games I bet the better the diversification I can achieve but win percentage obviously matters. I am close... I am going to be dangerous soon lol.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Miami -2.5 -110 5,500/5,000 my best and only bet for week 1. I went 34-13 on my college football plays last year.Comment -
I guess we will see. My system seems pretty powerful. College Basketball killed it... I think College Football is ready or at least worth taking for a spin.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Well... I have been building this model for the last 16 years and it might finally be working... Am I confident? Depends on the day LOL. I know I am really close if not there. I am now only fine tuning which is a big difference to where I was 16 years ago. Everything is fully automated.
Ironically, the site I get my stats from went bankrupt so now I in the process of finding new sites and figuring out how they import on a download and then figuring out how to get them into my model without errors.
I will post my picks... I posted my college basketball and NBA picks. Still can't get NBA to work.... almost broke my computer and several other things on NBA.
What I do know is that I have sang for Presidents in the White House, lived in RV at 50 below, run marathons sometimes on less than 2 hours of sleep... escaped house fire... been sued for 110K... jumped out of airplanes and repelled out of helicopters...
I think I got this in me.... LOL
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
My house fire escape anniversary is only 3 days away. 120 seconds later... I am toast... weird to think. My son won't be born. So I guess all of this is a bonus.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
us, thx for your contribution. You know I don't talk Bullshit. Here are my un-filtered thoughts:
1) If your confidence is luke-warm, don't bet it. Paper-trade until you're CONVINCED that it's +EV. Big difference between +EV and being SURE that you're going to win.
...FYI: I've seen some of the BEST handicappers hit a cold streak akin to the Ice Age. Streaks that are two standard deviations to the left, they do happen.
2) You bring up a great note on the Stats. Getting clean input is half the battle.
...And you're right, sites come and go. I've seen some good ones disappear.
...Ideally, you want to double-enter your raw data. Take data from two sites so that you can compare and feel good about the input.
3) Handicapping is super-challenging. I felt good about my NBA work this year.
...The one tip I'd give on NBA is that I think it's futile to evaluate on a team basis.
...Need to break it down to individuals. You want to get a feel for which players contribute...and which players are dead weight.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
By the way... we always did a Sandhurst competition... I never got involved.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Yes ... I used StatFox... the last few years... College Football I got up and running... I am using NFL.com for my NFL stats. Can you believe that NFL.com doesn't have a stat sheet for average points scored. How is that possible? It the most important stat.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Chuck... I appreciate the input... about luke warm... I need to bet the games... because I pay attention to them more. I know this sounds insane but if I don't have money riding on the game.... I don't analyze as hard.
I will consider your NBA thoughts.
Donnie ... find my college basketball thread... I was on fire.
Dave
Mack the TeachComment -
Two 1* plays. Games I've been scouting out. Like these #s:
*Clemson +14 1.91 (vs Geo): 1 to win .91
*TEXAS A&m +1.5 1.91 (vs Not Dame): 1 to win .91Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Some support for these plays:
*CLEMSON blew the FlaSt game. 2023 record should have been better.
*Kicking game contributed to 3 of the 4 losses. Walk-on kicker replaced by top prospect.
*UGA in Atlanta sounds like a Home game. Distance to Clemson only 50 miles further. Should play like a true neutral-site game.
*I like the coaching matchup in the ND/TxAM game. Don't trust this Irish coach at all.
*TxAM Ath Dir will view Elko as an upgrade from Fisher. Chance to realize the recruiting talent they've brought in.
*QB Weigman missed time last year. # flipped, like the Aggies as a Home Dog.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Good Luck, everyone. Per usual, these are just my personal opinions. Betting based on how I see the games playing out.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
1* North Carolina +2.5 2.00 (at Minn): 1 to win 1.00
...I like this line. Have some good angles.
...Gap is bigger than it appears. NoCarol was +90 net yds/game last year, Minn was -60.
...Minn was a phony 6-7 last year. Two wins vs mid-majors, late 3-pt win vs NEB, bogus win vs Iowa, win vs bad MichSt team.
...The win @Iowa was gift-wrapped by a terrible ref call that wiped out the winning Punt Return TD.
...MINN was 5-7. They made the bowl game only as a fill-in b/c they ran out of qualified bowl teams.
...North Carolina does lose top QB Maye. Rest of the roster looks pretty good.
...Steele wasn't overwhelmed by Maye's #s. Dropoff @QB shouldn't be massive.
...New MINN qb = transfer from New Hampshire. Step-up in class from FCS. Chance to take dog points versus qb that might be shocked by the game-speed.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Update: 11 units of action if you go back to the thread.
...Feel good about this heading into the openers. Tried to find as much good info as I could.
...Lines are now getting hammered out. Should be going to post with at least some BTCL value.
Good Luck to all. Hope everyone has a profitable season. It's important to get off to a good start, you want to feel like you're playing with House Money.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
