[NunyaBidness]

intrade has this at 50-50 now. still value on NOT getting passed at +140. however, in light of yesterday's movement, the line might actually get better.

http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/16/po...egalization-in

My theory, pot smokers answer the phone but don't leave the house.

[PunisherIND]

Quit your crying, I lost ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS. That shit doesn't grow on trees. I don't even no what this game they were playing is. I trusted you, I believed in you, I counted on you. How could you let this happen to my TWO THOUSAND NICKELS!?!!?!?!??

I gave you a 2% edge on the Debate prop for $50 limits and this is how you repay me?

I hope you think about me and my TEN-THOUSAND PENNIES when you go to bed tonight. I know I will be.

i'm telling you brah, first and last time that i tail vaughany's futbol picks.

[NunyaBidness]

Ok, well here's my non-MMA related play! ...Man City -1 A.H. against Ajax tomorrow at +131

THANKS A LOT!!!!!

[NunyaBidness]

i'm telling you brah, first and last time that i tail vaughany's futbol picks.

I'm thinking about asking to have him banished him from my thread. Do you know any trustworthy mods?

[Vaughany]

ha I'll make it up to u boyz with some MMA winnerz come November time!

[PunisherIND]

5d: romney to win pennsylvania +500 (fair value +350)

[NunyaBidness]

Well, lucky for you I just made it back on something called a Dodig. Whatever that thing does or is.

[PunisherIND]

I'm thinking about asking to have him banished him from my thread. Do you know any trustworthy mods?

lol, hey vaughany, can you point me to any mods that actually moderate around these parts?

[Vaughany]

ha against Leyton Hewitt..Must of been a nice dog?

[PunisherIND]

http://reason.com/blog/2012/09/16/po...egalization-in

My theory, pot smokers answer the phone but don't leave the house.

[Vaughany]

lol, hey vaughany, can you point me to any mods that actually moderate around these parts?

ha My generic answer to this kind of questions is: I suggest you speak to Bigday...although I believe he's busy hunting Wild Boar at present

[NunyaBidness]

ha My generic answer to this kind of questions is: I suggest you speak to Bigday...although I believe he's busy hunting Wild Boar at present

Funny, I thought I was the only one who called it that.

[NunyaBidness]

ha against Leyton Hewitt..Must of been a nice dog?

+110. Tried to find a play by play, not sure if it went to decision or if Dodig caught him in some sort of a sub.

[PunisherIND]

Funny, I thought I was the only one who called it that.

[Vaughany]

+110. Tried to find a play by play, not sure if it went to decision or if Dodig caught him in some sort of a sub.

ha Heard he has a great back-hand (slap)

[Vaughany]

Funny, I thought I was the only one who called it that.

hehe

[PunisherIND]

not to beat a dead horse, but the colorado amendment is at +175 now. whats most confusing to me is that the intrade market is pretty spot on for the other two ballot initiatives
Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 50.0%
Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed -245
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass +175

Oregon Measure 80 to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 11.1% (+800)
Oregon Measure 80 to be passed +550
Oregon Measure 80 won't pass -1050

Washington Initiative (I-502) to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 74% (-285)
Washington Initiative I-502 to be passed -300
Washington Initiative I-502 won't pass +220

[NunyaBidness]

A timely article:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ction-markets/

"A 2009 paper by David Rothschild found that FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts were somewhat better than Intrade’s over the course of the 2008 presidential election cycle. Mr. Rothschild wrote, however, that Intrade’s forecasts would have outperformed FiveThirtyEight’s had they been corrected to adjust for the market’s tendency to overrate the chances of the trailing candidate (what is known as a favorite-long shot bias). Of course, if that bias still applies in Intrade’s pricing, it would imply that the market is overrating Mr. Romney’s chances now as he is the underdog in the race."

[MD]

I'll answer whatever, but the best answer I can give you for anything is read the big 3 books, and seek out posts from guys like Ganchrow and RSigley, they know a million times what I know.

I am ordering one of the books you recommended, and I've spent numerous hours this evening reading posts and articles from Ganchrow. Much appreciated.

I'm sure knowing I actually took your advice isn't worth much, but I figured I'd let you know that you, at the very least, didn't waste your time. Thanks again.

[NunyaBidness]

not to beat a dead horse, but the colorado amendment is at +175 now. whats most confusing to me is that the intrade market is pretty spot on for the other two ballot initiatives
Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 50.0%
Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed -245
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass +175

Oregon Measure 80 to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 11.1% (+800)
Oregon Measure 80 to be passed +550
Oregon Measure 80 won't pass -1050

Washington Initiative (I-502) to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 74% (-285)
Washington Initiative I-502 to be passed -300
Washington Initiative I-502 won't pass +220

I dunno, it's strange. My first thought is that the way they're marketing it (you're getting the pot leaf intro too, right?) that its bringing out the potheads to vote yes on it, while the unconcerned aren't going to give it another look. But as you point out, why aren't the other ones moving?

There is active trading in this market right now, 30 shares today, so the market isn't stagnant.

I'm going to keep betting it and assume intrade bettors know more than 5d does. Problem with betting some of these things early though is perception can change a lot. I was killing the market in all of my state bets, but now the market is killing me.

[NunyaBidness]

I am ordering one of the books you recommended, and I've spent numerous hours this evening reading posts and articles from Ganchrow. Much appreciated.

I'm sure knowing I actually took your advice isn't worth much, but I figured I'd let you know that you, at the very least, didn't waste your time. Thanks again.

I appreciate the compliment, and love helping those who want to learn. I didn't invent any of this stuff and learned most of it from posters on other forums.

[PunisherIND]

Pay it forward, like haley joel osmett

[Vitooch]

Just saw this in Player's Talk thought you would enjoy it...

Originally Posted by k13
Does it really make a difference if you get +1 or -1 or whatever?

[PunisherIND]

A timely article:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ction-markets/

"A 2009 paper by David Rothschild found that FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts were somewhat better than Intrade’s over the course of the 2008 presidential election cycle. Mr. Rothschild wrote, however, that Intrade’s forecasts would have outperformed FiveThirtyEight’s had they been corrected to adjust for the market’s tendency to overrate the chances of the trailing candidate (what is known as a favorite-long shot bias). Of course, if that bias still applies in Intrade’s pricing, it would imply that the market is overrating Mr. Romney’s chances now as he is the underdog in the race."

i hope this proves true.

"It is unusual for differences like these to persist for very long in well-functioning markets, because they would potentially enable a trader to make a risk-free profit by selling Mr. Romney’s stock short at Intrade, where it is expensive, and then betting on him at one of the sports books or at another prediction market, where it is relatively cheap. The fact that these relatively wide spreads exist between the different markets suggest that they are relatively illiquid and that they entail high transaction costs, which may limit their efficiency."

hehe. did you transfer those funds into intrade?

[Educ8d Degener8]

Dorks.

[NunyaBidness]

i hope this proves true.

"It is unusual for differences like these to persist for very long in well-functioning markets, because they would potentially enable a trader to make a risk-free profit by selling Mr. Romney’s stock short at Intrade, where it is expensive, and then betting on him at one of the sports books or at another prediction market, where it is relatively cheap. The fact that these relatively wide spreads exist between the different markets suggest that they are relatively illiquid and that they entail high transaction costs, which may limit their efficiency."

hehe. did you transfer those funds into intrade?

Yeah, I sent in a wire yesterday. Waiting for them to receive it.

[PunisherIND]

any value in Demi Lovato group to win X Factor at +400

where you getting these odds bubz? winner will most likely be on britne spears team, but if not, it would be lovato.

i almost played lovato at +350 on bovada, so i do like the +400 that you're getting.

[PunisherIND]

Romney to win Ohio +195 Bodog (arbable at many places)

lots of action on obama today.

romney to win ohio +240 on 5dimes (fair value +145)

[PunisherIND]

NFL player props

5dimes - josh freeman over 1.5 tds +135
bovada - freeman under 1.5 tds +110

about 15 mins to get this in

[Beelzebubzy]

where you getting these odds bubz? winner will most likely be on britne spears team, but if not, it would be lovato.

i almost played lovato at +350 on bovada, so i do like the +400 that you're getting.

Bookmaker has it at +400
Britney is at +200
Simon +165
LA Reid +250 or so

[Beelzebubzy]

Bookmaker has it at +400
Britney is at +200
Simon +165
LA Reid +250 or so

Actual

27505	SIMON COWELL			+180
27506	BRITNEY SPEARS			+220
27507	L.A. REID			+235
27508	DEMI LOVATO			+400

MAkes no sense because they have this

27501	MALE			+125
27502	FEMALE			-165
27503	GROUP			+475

Simon has the groups. I dont watch the show. The future Mrs. Bubzy does and Simon has the groups and does not know if the teams get switched up

[PunisherIND]

Bookmaker has it at +400
Britney is at +200
Simon +165
LA Reid +250 or so

Wow lines way off if what I'm being told is accurate. Biggest favorite to win is a young girl on britney team. Bovada has brit at even. Simon is coaching the groups - very unlikely that a group wins this type of competition. People generally vote for individuals. Reid coaching older folk. Again, unlikely to win bc people who watch the show are typically younger.bovada has simon and reid at +400.

[Beelzebubzy]

Wow lines way off if what I'm being told is accurate. Biggest favorite to win is a young girl on britney team. Bovada has brit at even. Simon is coaching the groups - very unlikely that a group wins this type of competition. People generally vote for individuals. Reid coaching older folk. Again, unlikely to win bc people who watch the show are typically younger.bovada has simon and reid at +400.

Yeah I agree. I have a 5er on Demi cause 1 my woman loves Britney so me betting Demi pisses her off, and 2, her group seems the most marketable to the shows demographic.

I need to get a bovado account. Next bouncy white castle I sell, Ill open one

[PunisherIND]

Actual

27505	SIMON COWELL			+180
27506	BRITNEY SPEARS			+220
27507	L.A. REID			+235
27508	DEMI LOVATO			+400

MAkes no sense because they have this

27501	MALE			+125
27502	FEMALE			-165
27503	GROUP			+475

Simon has the groups. I dont watch the show. The future Mrs. Bubzy does and Simon has the groups and does not know if the teams get switched up

Yea those second set of lines make sense. Dont think they change teams but you should look into that to be safe.

Lol I dont watch it either.

[Beelzebubzy]

Yea those second set of lines make sense. Dont think they change teams but you should look into that to be safe.

Lol I dont watch it either.

Dont be lying to me punisher. I know you are doing Hog analysis on Simon to make sure his shows succeed