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I expect this game to show it's true colors after the final game tonight tips off.
I have added MIN LIVE...
Good Luck.30-Jun MIN +8.5 (-110) LIVE
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Good luck KGBComment -
This all panned out, the roadmap, well not all of it, but enough to matter.
Indeed only one fulfilled the market Duty, that was Las Vegas, as Dallas failed the whole game. Was the first game misleading? No, but it sort of was. the large lead getting cut was a part of the misleading natures of the game, the one sided run early was present. A lot of LIVE bets paid on Dallas in that game last night. It was a fuggazi comeback.
And what of the structure?. It began yesterday and to offset the Min upset we saw to favorites, including a large line, cover.
Among the two favorites, those bettors split, something that often happens in the give and take markets. There were multiple levels of give and take over these last two days.
I said we'd do something special in this thread and whether you see it or not, we already did. All of this is best shown by example and we had a good example this week already.
And now the cat and mouse market games begin as we enter the weekend.
We may not generate much more this week, my only regret is not buying Minn to win when they were +10.5 and +8.5 dogs LIVE.
If you're even bothering to read this in the WNBA, stay tuned, we have not yet begun to defile ourselves.
Here's my WNBA record in this thread with links to each play, of which there are only 9.
I am 4-0 with LIVE bets but the first one was a closing trade shooting for a middle resulting in the loss of -.13 units of vig. Live trading in the WNBA can be expesive.
Date Play 1 Unit per bet 665 24-May DAL +1.5 (-112) -1 NY +1.5 (-115) LIVE 0.87 652 25-May CON/SEA UNDER 162.5 (-113) -1 662 28-May MIN/SEA UNDER 166.5 (-107) 0.93 612 20-Jun LA -2.5 (-109) -1 612 LA -150 -1 27-Jun LV +145 LIVE 1.45 645 30-Jun MIN +135 1.35 30-Jun MIN +8.5 (-110) LIVE 0.91 Total 1.51
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I often talk about having a roadmap, and intentions, when starting the gambling day and I especially say it about LIVE trading.
Yesterday I offered a glimpse of what I mean by that and a little bit of a look on how that works and leads to bets.
Sure I won, I clearly made the right call for this style of betting, but there's so much more to what I posted. Should I do a video? A LIVE stream?
When moving quickly and trying to get out LIVE plays and analysis, videos just might take to long.
Here are today's numbers and again the stacking forecast is similar to a wide array of forecasts on down the line.
Seems to be some agreement in the Forecast and now we once again have a large line. We've already talked about these large lines and we are seeing quite few in some of these matchups.Stacking Public Percentages Guage 1-Jul CON 81 82 82 IND 73 70
The public gauge was wrong in all three games yesterday but right on the large spread moneyline.
Connecticut is on a roll, covering the last tthree spread/pk lines. I don't want to get too lengthy into the types of bettors this market breaks down into right now, but it's just like any, there are streak riders and streak breakers.
Ever play that card game where you get one card and you can pass it to the left or keep it, then the last guy can just to keep or go from the deck? Lowest card loses.
Connectiicut right now is what we call a bullet, it's that card that gets passed all the way around the table, probably a 2 or 3, nobody wants it. The bullet is for the streak breakers.
We have lost all our value already for this thread. I do have a position on Connecticut spread around at -10.5, -12.5, -13, -14 and -14.5 and those later ones carry a shady risk here.
The cat is out of the bag already here. You have to recognize the risk of taking -15 at this point, it's pretty much a pass.
The good news is that the bullet tends to be a tease killer and so the lines may not matter.
With all that said, and with the high risk of this number laid out and to reflect the honesty that I own this game, I struck again and am posting the trade I just made, I have picked up...
Not many 15's out there now, a lot of -15.5s and that is too much. I am done filling my position.649 1-Jul CON -15 (-107)
Good Luck.
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Morino, who’s your favorite band dog?Comment -
Great film, even though the acting is Avg. across the board, all time great film.This all panned out, the roadmap, well not all of it, but enough to matter.
Indeed only one fulfilled the market Duty, that was Las Vegas, as Dallas failed the whole game. Was the first game misleading? No, but it sort of was. the large lead getting cut was a part of the misleading natures of the game, the one sided run early was present. A lot of LIVE bets paid on Dallas in that game last night. It was a fuggazi comeback.
And what of the structure?. It began yesterday and to offset the Min upset we saw to favorites, including a large line, cover.
Among the two favorites, those bettors split, something that often happens in the give and take markets. There were multiple levels of give and take over these last two days.
I said we'd do something special in this thread and whether you see it or not, we already did. All of this is best shown by example and we had a good example this week already.
And now the cat and mouse market games begin as we enter the weekend.
We may not generate much more this week, my only regret is not buying Minn to win when they were +10.5 and +8.5 dogs LIVE.
If you're even bothering to read this in the WNBA, stay tuned, we have not yet begun to defile ourselves.
Here's my WNBA record in this thread with links to each play, of which there are only 9.
I am 4-0 with LIVE bets but the first one was a closing trade shooting for a middle resulting in the loss of -.13 units of vig. Live trading in the WNBA can be expesive.
Date Play 1 Unit per bet 665 24-May DAL +1.5 (-112) -1 NY +1.5 (-115) LIVE 0.87 652 25-May CON/SEA UNDER 162.5 (-113) -1 662 28-May MIN/SEA UNDER 166.5 (-107) 0.93 612 20-Jun LA -2.5 (-109) -1 612 LA -150 -1 27-Jun LV +145 LIVE 1.45 645 30-Jun MIN +135 1.35 30-Jun MIN +8.5 (-110) LIVE 0.91 Total 1.51
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Welp, the forecasts were right, Connecticut was wrong.
Here are the numbers.
Again the vast majortiy of forecast do not vary much, this has to do with the results the league is offering in each game. Any other forecasts out there?
Do you also get the same numbers as the stacking forecats, or at least close to it?
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 2-Jul CHI 82 83 81 DAL 79 80 84 ATL 78 78 SEA 88 91 LV 88 87 LA 76 77
No bets in today, yet, but I'm likely passing. There are two repeat matchups today.
My initial thoughts on the 3 pick for the day is Chicago/Atlanta/Las Vegas.
I will be looking LIVE and if Dallas goes ahead early in the first game, there is plenty of cause for deception tonight.
Leans: Chicago -2, -2.5 and the even the moneyline up to -135, these -140's are too much.
Pre Game LIVE look: Looking for Chicago if Dallas can come out fast, with the slight possibility of selling back some of any moneyline positions.
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CorkyComment -
Nice season, retard.
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Corky's an idiot Gold, we're turning this into a real WNBA thread, where there are actual bets made, not the Air bets of Morono or the fake bets of the Faders.
Games have started so here are the basic numbers, of which the stacking Forescast should be fairly easy to replicate...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 3-Jul WAS 82 84 NY 82 81 CON 82 83 IND 75 71 MIN 78 80 PHO 83 82
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Here are today's numbers, it's a bit of a loaded day but I have not been in the office as much this weekend.
Two double sigit lines and in each case the Forecasts like the dog, not to mention the UNDERs being favored in that stacking forecast.Stacking Public Percentages Guage 4-Jul ATL 81 81 LV 89 93 SEA 83 84 LA 75 75
Leaning Seattle as the favorite there in the late game and would not be surprised if Las Vegas looked strong but then an ATL back door cover sneaks in there....a LIVE look.
That's my lean and my LIVE look. The LIVE look is not that great as we would need an opitmal lead to get a decent line LLIVE.
I must apologize to the thread as we had a bit UPSET yeaterday with Indiana beating Connecticut and I should have been on top of it, but I just wasn't around yesterday, even posting some of those numbers after tip.
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It turns out it was the other two pick, not ATL then SEA, but LV then LA, with SEA teasing the bettors there. Had I been around, this thread would have made a profit yesterday. I apologize.
Here's today's game...
I am not currently in a position to offer any guidance for tonight's rare Monday night game.Stacking Public Percentages Guage cf 5-Jul DAL 82 86 c- NY 78 79 80
Currently.
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Forgot to drop these, so here they are for future use if neessary...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 7-Jul DAL 79 83 MIN 84 86 LA 74 73 SEA 82 85 PHO 80 79 LV 85 90
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Here are the forecasts for tonight's games.
Stacking Public Percentages Guage 9-Jul ATL 76 76 CON 86 85 NY 82 82 IND 79 79 SEA 84 86 PHO 80 79 MIN 85 81 LV 85 89
The stacking forecast is showing a tie in that MIN/LV game and 7 points out there in the market is looking pretty good for the MIN backers. Almost too good but we just might have a bet there on teh MInny spread.
This is the last weekend, with 1 game tomorrow and 5 games on Sunday before the All Star game Wed and then an extended break until August 15th where they come back with 6 games.
I simply don't have enough reports completed and info front of me to reasonably map this weekend. Not sure if I will or not to be honest.
Right now there's a pretty strong lean here on Minnesota.
Seattle has tonight and one more game before the break, both against Phoenix, they remain the bullet in pass the trash as they haven't covered a spread in 6 games, of which 5 of them they were double digit favorites.
I think Seattle has a chance to finally cover tonight based on the how the forecasts have diminished but quite frankly they are simply too loaded in the market to bet on now. If they don't cover, we will be looking at them Sunday.
On the face of the agreeing forecasts it looks like NY will get their blowout. While there is value on Indiana about +135 and definitely +140, the forecasts just might right on the number, at least the 3 point margin. I'm passing on this game.
For the the first game the value is gone but Connecticut will be out for blood, I think they cover the spread.
Notice I walked through these games backwards, to develop a roadmap.
Leaning: Minnesota on the 7 point spread and +240 or better moneyline, countering the line the movement. If the books are going to pretend like they need our help on that side as they are getting slammed on Vegas, the we just might help them.
Keeping an eye on Connecticut and New York here, the spread or moneylines may not be decided until the very end.
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Minnesota +2.5 -120 1qComment -
Need NY hereComment -
wheres Corky?Comment -
Good luck ThermafluComment -
That line much more like +4.5 and +185 now moving toward that stacking forecast of a tie game.
Books had plenty of support on Minnesota, even with the line move hence "pretend", but it's clear the market also "figured out" or reacted to the early action and the books capitalized, gaining that steam on Minny. I think the books made extra effort to gather Minny bets they didn't need.
A minny fast start would make sense, but whether or not they hold is a different story.
Sometimes it's just that easy, but I'd be wary of the +4.5 at this point, that's a long way from +7 here, even if it close to the open.
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Seattle burning a bit of the WNBA market in their last few games and go down as -7 favorites, making it 7 straight times they have failed on the spread.
A bullet.Comment -
I can’t believe the books think Seattle can win a totle with this roster, it’s a 3 person team and bird is 36Comment
