Wnba 2021

[jjgold]

Who is the best WNBA capper here

[KVB]

It was 76-73 I thought I had a chance at the middle.

Not sure whether to credit the Libs or blame Dallas there, but Libs gonna get done.

I knew I didn't want to be left holding that initial Dallas bet by itself.

[KVB]

Who is the best WNBA capper here

You want market insight, you want to know some of the latest WNBA discussion? You want the tools to be your own capper and make your own decisions?

Tune in here daily.

This is where it's at. It's a goup effort but I think we can make something special happen here.

[ThanksForTheFade]

I knew the value was Dallas early, I should have bet that

Shh, just post the fade bozo.

[navyblue81]

You want market insight, you want to know some of the latest WNBA discussion? You want the tools to be your own capper and make your own decisions?

Tune in here daily.

This is where it's at. It's a goup effort but I think we can make something special happen here.

Given the fact morino posts in here, I think it’s safe to say you can make millions just betting against him.

[KVB]

3 games today, I'm a little behind.

What are we leaning here?

I think Seattle might get the better of Connecticut tonight, or this one could be the middle missed yesterday...lol... with Sea to win and Conn plus points. But wait, that's what SEA did last game.

I need to get some work done here.

[jjgold]

I think I’m gonna fade Connecticut

[thomorino]

Shh, just post the fade bozo.

Given the fact morino posts in here, I think it’s safe to say you can make millions just betting against him.

Dumb shits

[thomorino]

Sky 1q -1.5 -130

[thomorino]

Sun +3.5

[KVB]

Sky 1q -1.5 -130

Sun +3.5

Legit lines, Faders will get a widely avaliable ATL +2 (-110) 1q.

Play is Sun +3.5 (-110) Faders will get Sea -3.5 (-108) but there are -3's out there.

Feels like Sea might be sneaky good Mo, I'm still working on some things.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I can see the Sky coming out 1st quarter hard, I think for sure they will lead early. It's just tough to bet for me because so many times we're right but by the time the 1st quarter or half buzzes, they come back.

Better shot with 1st q though so good luck Mo.

[KVB]

Not gonna lie, Faders be damned, I got metrics that say Chicago Sky come out strong early. In my opinion, with my handicapping, it doesn't warrant a 1q bet due to risk, but it definitely means we will be watching the live markets and get the dream a dream at a deal.

Unfortunately, I also have things that try to predict (in some cases) the LIVE Market in these instances and while I think the Sky come out strong, the lead may only get to the spread of 6 or so. This will run the live market up a bit for the Sky, but not sure it's enough considering I have Chicago winning by about 5 points in the the best forecast I can make under these circumstances. There's no guarantee of a Dream come back.

Everything's an estimate based on some probabilities so we'll have to see.

[thomorino]

Legit lines, Faders will get a widely avaliable ATL +2 (-110) 1q.

Play is Sun +3.5 (-110) Faders will get Sea -3.5 (-108) but there are -3's out there.

Feels like Sea might be sneaky good Mo, I'm still working on some things.

Good Luck

Howard gone is a huge loss, they have no interior defense, Jones should dominate inside

[thomorino]

Seattle also depends too much on stewart, Bird is inconsistent in the regular season now that she’s older, I’m not impressed with Seattle’s depth

[KVB]

Seattle so far basically split with the Aces in near identical flipped blowouts, They handled minny, and let's face it I think they could control dallas and just did what the had to do last game. It looks like it as they withstood runs.

The one common thing in all games...the OVER.

Four games in, so we can start playing around with Seasttle here.

They average 91.75 and give up 88.5 points per game on average.

But a more valuable tool will be the median, throwing out the 100 pt game and 80 point game we get the offense with 93.5. throw out the outliers on defense and the median of the 4 games is 89.5.

The real value will come when the league has establshed them too and so far we can do this for the league but 'd like to see each team wtih four game first.

So far the books have understimated Total in Seattle's games significantly. Just look at the difference between the the lines and the final scores. Of course the final scores can be noise, and vary a lot, but we can still get an idea of whether or not the market is adjusting or is off.

Seattle might be pretty good, scoring when they need to and playing to their opponent.

Or, the have no defense and they can only hope to keep pace with their opponent.

Those are two very different conditions.

Either way, they can't keep rolling with OVERs forever.

[Booya711]

I’m 6-2 in my thread without knowing one player in the league....you guys look too deep into shit that doesn’t matter

[KVB]

I don't believe I've mentioned any players.

lol

[Booya711]

I don't believe I've mentioned any players.

lol

I was talking about the moron

[KVB]

[KVB]

I picked up CON/SEA UNDER 162.5 (-113)

I have a a one, two, or 3 point game here, with Sea scoring 77 or 78 points to Conn 75 or 76 points.

163.5 was the early sweet line, a 163 point game here is not out of the cards and if the start of the game is on pace consistently then a may look for mild variations in the live line to shoot for a middle.

The market is on the OVER, but I believe sharper participants, including the books, are with me, on the UNDER here.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Chicago went up 2-0, that's it.

They did score first, for what it's worth, but not exactly the fast start we thought my happen.

Tough one as it's "to win" 2 units and was -130.

[thomorino]

I’m 6-2 in my thread without knowing one player in the league....you guys look too deep into shit that doesn’t matter

I was talking about the moron

Only a dumb shit like you would think 8 picks means anything.

[jjgold]

Booya not bright

I don’t know anyone that is who is from Amarillo

[Booya711]

Only a dumb shit like you would think 8 picks means anything.

9 picks and 7-2 puto....i will put you in your place bitch

[thomorino]

9 picks and 7-2 puto....i will put you in your place bitch

9 picks also means nothing dumb shit, you don’t have staying power

[thomorino]

Breanna Stewart to be MVP +175

risking 4 units to win 7

She is the best player in the league by far and with Seattle roster much worse than last year with Howard and Clark gone she will get lots of shots.

Bird is nearly 37 and she isn’t going to play every regular season game. There isn’t a clear second best player in the WNBA after Stewart, Wilson is good but she can’t shoot 3’s well and isn’t a consistent defender. Her usage rate will be much lower than Stewart’s too since she is on a better team than Stewart. Della Donnie is never healthy and isn’t likely to play much more than half the regular season.

[thomorino]

I picked up CON/SEA UNDER 162.5 (-113)

I have a a one, two, or 3 point game here, with Sea scoring 77 or 78 points to Conn 75 or 76 points.

163.5 was the early sweet line, a 163 point game here is not out of the cards and if the start of the game is on pace consistently then a may look for mild variations in the live line to shoot for a middle.

The market is on the OVER, but I believe sharper participants, including the books, are with me, on the UNDER here.

Good Luck

Seattle plays fast and they have no interior defense, I wouldn’t bet unders with them.

[KVB]

Little bit of late money on Seattle here.

In the WNBA that generally bodes well for the favorite in the situation. This early in the season, I'd take Sea here live if they go down a bunch.

But I don't think we get that opportunity, at least not meaningfully.

[KVB]

Seattle plays fast and they have no interior defense, I wouldn’t bet unders with them.

They've definitely been blowing out the line on average and are 4-0 OVERs but I think tonight's line came out a little high in an over adjustment.

We did see the line trickle down a bit, wish I had 163.5, no doubt about.

[KVB]

Breanna Stewart to be MVP +175

risking 4 units to win 7

She is the best player in the league by far and with Seattle roster much worse than last year with Howard and Clark gone she will get lots of shots.

Bird is nearly 37 and she isn’t going to play every regular season game. There isn’t a clear second best player in the WNBA after Stewart, Wilson is good but she can’t shoot 3’s well and isn’t a consistent defender. Her usage rate will be much lower than Stewart’s too since she is on a better team than Stewart. Della Donnie is never healthy and isn’t likely to play much more than half the regular season.

So unfortunate for Delle Donne, I thought she was the second coming. A lot of talent.

Hot too.

Good luck on MVP, she's as good a bet as any.

I think she was last year's finals mvp too. In her prime.

[KVB]

We got a game here.

5 points 3 minutes to go.

[KVB]

Conn made their move, tied it up.

Some bitch better be clutch, whatever team.

I do not want OVER time.

[KVB]

Nice hit mo, helps a little when you get a high price loss.

/BEGIN TRANSMISSION FOR THE FILE CLERK/

Here is the So Far, with links to each play. The Faders trail but "To Win" 2 units means a multi unit swing, both ways, is around every corner.

ATS/TOT			To Win		To Win
RECORD	Date	Play	2 units	FADE and Get PaidTM	2 units
0-1	14-May	IND -1 (+100) 1q	-2	NY +1 (-129)	2
0-2		ATL +1.5 (-139) 1q	-2.78	CONN -1.5 (+108)	2.16
0-3		CONN/ATL OVER 40.5 (-115) 1q	-2.3	Conn/Atl OVER 40.5 (-110) 1q	2
1-3	15-May	CHI -1 (+102) 1q	2.04	WAS +1 (-107)	-2.14
1-4		CHI/WAS OVER 42 (-114) 1q	-2.28	CHI/WAS UNDER 42 (-105) 1q	2
2-4		LV/SEA OVER 41.5 (-121) 1q	2	LV/SEA UNDER 41.5 (-108) 1q	-2.16
3-4		LV/SEA OVER 83.5 (-115) 1h	2	LV/SEA UNDER 83.5 (-105) 1h	-2.1
3-5		LV +1.5 (-120)	-2.4	SEA +1 (-105)	0.95
4-5	16-May	CONN -1.5 (-115)	2	PHO +1.5 (-105)	-2.1
5-5		NY/IND UNDER 164.5 (-114)	2	NY/IND OVER 164.5 (-105)	-2.1
6-5		NY +5.5 (-114)	2	NY -5.5 (-105)	-2.1
7-5	18-May	NY +1.5 (-115) 1q	2	MIN -1.5 (-105) 1q	-2.1
8-5		PHO -3 (-110)	2	WAS +3 (-110)	-2.2
8-6	19-May	CHI/ATL OVER 40.5 (-115) 1q	-2.3	CHI/ATL UNDER 40.5 (-105) 1q	2
8-7	20-May	SEA -1 (-120) 1q	-2.4	MIN +1.5 (-105) 1q	2
8-8	21-May	NY +3 (-115)	-2.3	WASH -2.5 (-107)	2
8-9		IND -1 (+100) 1q	-2	ATL +1.5 (-115)	2
9-9		LA/LV OVER 43 (-115) 1q	2	LA/LV UNDER 43 (-109) 1q	-2.18
	23-May	IND -104 1q	2	WAS -115 1q	-2.3
10-9		NY/CHI OVER 41 (-117) 1q	2	NY/CHI UNDER 42 (-110)	-2.2
11-9		CON +1.5 (-115) 1q	2	LV -1.5 (-113) 1q	-2.26
11-10	25-May	CHI -1.5 (-130) 1Q	-2.6	ATL +2 (-110) 1Q	2
12-10		CON +3.5 (-110)	2	SEA -3.5 (-108)	-2.16
12-10		Total	2.68	Total	-8.99
		Futures…
		CHI Champs +900
		Suspect Lines List
	14-May	ATL +1.5 (-139) 1q	-2.78	CONN -1.5 (+108)	2.16
	15-May	LV +1.5 (-120)	-2.4	SEA +1 (-105)	0.95

We continue to recommend a flat risk and more outs to improve the ROI and distance from the Faders.

/END TRANSMISSION FOR THE FILE CLERK/

Nice work So Far Morino.

[thomorino]

1-1


+2.8 units overall