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  • KVB
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 05-29-14
    • 74817

    #841
    One game tonight. I have Phoenix winning by almost double digits. Of course it's early season and those forecasts can be off, but something's up here.

    Some could even say the wrong team is favored here and initially the markets are going to take in Phoenix action.

    I know there aren't a whole lot of bets in this market overall, but we basically saw what really looked to be RLM as this line went upward, towards 7.

    The books may be looking to get a lot of late LV Aces money here, and it is a late game. Clearly there's a plan to steer money because if they keep the line here and the action doesn't get influenced from elsewhere, aces just might kill the tease.

    It's a late game Mo, I have Pho winning by almost 10 points and once again I forecast an UNDER, this time by about 7 points.

    Those are the stacking percentages forecasts, that do well overall against the spread and to a lesser extent the Totals.

    Both teams with 4 games under their belt, and I created a non predicitve gauge that indicates what the general public market thinks.

    That gauge shows Las Vegas winning 84-82.

    Both forecasts point to the Phoenix spread, that syncing, occurring at the earliest chance we get with two teams with 4 games, usually spells trouble for the forecats, enough to mention.

    No bet yet, but I smell an upset or a favorite blowout. No middle here.
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388189

      #842
      Phoenix is so hard to figure out they’ve always had talent but that Britney Griner something about her that she’s not a winner
      Comment
      • thomorino
        Restricted User
        • 06-01-17
        • 45842

        #843
        Aces 1h -3.5 -120
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388189

          #844
          Lol
          In love with every game
          Comment
          • KVB
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 05-29-14
            • 74817

            #845
            Originally posted by thomorino
            Aces 1h -3.5 -120
            Legit line, Faders get Phoenix +3.5 (-108) 1h

            Good Luck.
            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817

              #846
              I still think it's an upset or a blowout.

              A shot could have been taken on the +210 and -6.

              Comment
              • thomorino
                Restricted User
                • 06-01-17
                • 45842

                #847
                Aces loss

                +.2 units
                Comment
                • KVB
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 05-29-14
                  • 74817

                  #848
                  They pulled out the moneyline though, not paying the upset, for the 1st half. Something to note.

                  Get em next time.

                  Comment
                  • ThanksForTheFade
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-05-21
                    • 1240

                    #849
                    Originally posted by thomorino
                    Aces 1h -3.5 -120
                    Close one morono
                    Comment
                    • thomorino
                      Restricted User
                      • 06-01-17
                      • 45842

                      #850
                      Originally posted by ThanksForTheFade
                      Close one morono
                      You are a dumb shit
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388189

                        #851
                        Any real professional doesn’t have plays every day
                        Comment
                        • stevek173
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 03-29-08
                          • 27598

                          #852
                          Originally posted by jjgold
                          Any real professional doesn’t have plays every day
                          You are a dumb shit.
                          Comment
                          • stake1
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-19-18
                            • 18116

                            #853
                            Originally posted by jjgold
                            Any real professional doesn’t have plays every day
                            Lookout Jj, thom will read that and get very upset. His records are “strong across the board”, just ask him
                            Comment
                            • thomorino
                              Restricted User
                              • 06-01-17
                              • 45842

                              #854
                              Originally posted by jjgold
                              Any real professional doesn’t have plays every day
                              Originally posted by stake1
                              Lookout Jj, thom will read that and get very upset. His records are “strong across the board”, just ask him
                              Wrong, dumb shits
                              Comment
                              • KVB
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 05-29-14
                                • 74817

                                #855
                                I have Dallas winning with 85 or 86 points to Atlanta's 82 or 83 points in what are very basic forecast for now.

                                Mo are you in at all tonight?

                                I think this could be the night Dallas comes out strong and then Atlanta contends but just not enough to get a bet down.

                                If we could get some plus money on the ml, I might consider trading both sides. I will look for it LIVE, but even if Dallas does score first, there might not be room between lead changes to get down at a good number.
                                Comment
                                • thomorino
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 06-01-17
                                  • 45842

                                  #856
                                  Dallas Atlanta over 41.5 -120 1q
                                  Comment
                                  • KVB
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-29-14
                                    • 74817

                                    #857
                                    Originally posted by thomorino
                                    Dallas Atlanta over 41.5 -120 1q
                                    Faders on the DAL/ATL UNDER 41.5 (-110), some might have gotten even money.

                                    Good Luck

                                    Comment
                                    • thomorino
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 06-01-17
                                      • 45842

                                      #858
                                      Originally posted by thomorino
                                      Dallas Atlanta over 41.5 -120 1q
                                      Winner


                                      +2.4 units

                                      Some books I use are not posting quarter or half lines for the WNBA and some are, BetMGM is, Draftkings is not.
                                      Comment
                                      • KVB
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-29-14
                                        • 74817

                                        #859
                                        You're all good Mo, I'm more concerned about getting the Fader's line, you're burying them.

                                        lol

                                        60 point first quarter as both teams contributed to run it up.

                                        Line said they'd each bring about 20 they brought 30 each.

                                        Nice fukkin hit. You're doing well with these.
                                        Comment
                                        • KVB
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 05-29-14
                                          • 74817

                                          #860
                                          Originally posted by KVB
                                          Faders on the DAL/ATL UNDER 41.5 (-110), some might have gotten even money.

                                          Good Luck

                                          Notice I just said the Faders, didn't even mention "legit line" or anything like that.

                                          Let's focus on winning.
                                          Comment
                                          • Unrivaled
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 10-24-11
                                            • 6685

                                            #861
                                            F U Morino you clown
                                            Comment
                                            • thomorino
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 06-01-17
                                              • 45842

                                              #862
                                              Originally posted by Unrivaled
                                              F U Morino you clown
                                              You are a dumb shit
                                              Comment
                                              • mjsuax13
                                                Moderator
                                                • 03-14-15
                                                • 24853

                                                #863
                                                We love WNBA!
                                                Comment
                                                • KVB
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                  • 74817

                                                  #864
                                                  Originally posted by mjsuax13
                                                  We love WNBA!
                                                  Hell yeah!

                                                  They got a little something for everyone...







                                                  Comment
                                                  • thomorino
                                                    Restricted User
                                                    • 06-01-17
                                                    • 45842

                                                    #865
                                                    Sky -1.5 -115 1q
                                                    Comment
                                                    • thomorino
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 06-01-17
                                                      • 45842

                                                      #866
                                                      Sky aren’t playing as well since Parker has been out but their last 2 losses were to a liberty team playing well and an Atlanta team that has looked mucin better the last 2 games, here they get a struggling sparks team
                                                      Comment
                                                      • thomorino
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 06-01-17
                                                        • 45842

                                                        #867
                                                        Seattle -6
                                                        Comment
                                                        • KVB
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 05-29-14
                                                          • 74817

                                                          #868
                                                          Originally posted by thomorino
                                                          Sky aren’t playing as well since Parker has been out but their last 2 losses were to a liberty team playing well and an Atlanta team that has looked mucin better the last 2 games, here they get a struggling sparks team
                                                          At home too.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • KVB
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 05-29-14
                                                            • 74817

                                                            #869
                                                            Originally posted by thomorino
                                                            Sky -1.5 -115 1q
                                                            Are you sure you aid -115 for the -1.5? I'm talking about earlie, when or about when you posted it.

                                                            Was it that expensive? I feel like you could have gotten it at -105 or even +105. Honestly asking, maybe a typo here. I'd give you +105 if you say that's what you got, or maybe -1 (-115).

                                                            Faders get LA +1.5 (-122) 1q or they can get the +1 and a more reasonably, even reduced vig.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KVB
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 05-29-14
                                                              • 74817

                                                              #870
                                                              Originally posted by thomorino
                                                              Seattle -6
                                                              I have you at -110 Mo.

                                                              Faders get Min +6 (-108) or they can find 6.5 and even 5.5 out there.

                                                              Good Luck.

                                                              My stacking percentages forecast show Seatlle winning by about 20 points with a Total of 162 or 163 points. The non predictive public gauge says Seattle wins 89-79.

                                                              Another tempting Under but varying forecasts I make edge up a little higher towrards 165. I think the books want the the sharper forecasters and gamblers to pass here. By landing a number at or near the forecasts of some disciplined groups, you can force them gamble, which they will not do. So they sideline their money, and wait for a better number. At this point the number is between the ublic and sharper predictions, but it's a tight window.

                                                              I believe that's what's happening here, expecially when you calculate the pubic's tnednecy for the Over, and especially in the rising stat situation of Seattle.

                                                              I can think of a few reasons to sideline sharp bettors but the one that sticks out here is that house expects an UNDER.

                                                              I'm going back to the poison well. I am going to figure my forecast below the Total is sharper than the best in the world who are closer to the Total. I am going against Morino's noted advice by taking the UNDER in a Seattle game, again.

                                                              In hopes this isn't a perpetual trap for forecasters, I picked up...

                                                              662 28-May MIN/SEA UNDER 166.5 (-107)
                                                              Danger Will Robinson.

                                                              Danger.

                                                              Comment
                                                              • thomorino
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 06-01-17
                                                                • 45842

                                                                #871
                                                                Seattle plays fast and their are issues with their interior defense, Minnesota’s offense has been trash though, Fowler’s isn’t the same player she was
                                                                Comment
                                                                • KVB
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                                  • 74817

                                                                  #872
                                                                  Originally posted by thomorino
                                                                  Seattle plays fast and their are issues with their interior defense, Minnesota’s offense has been trash though, Fowler’s isn’t the same player she was
                                                                  One of these day's we'll get a combo of the market going to high and their variance of a low scoring or bad shooting or whatever game.

                                                                  One of these days.

                                                                  lol
                                                                  But yeah, I don't think Minny gets to 70 points, or maybe just gets there.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • KVB
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 05-29-14
                                                                    • 74817

                                                                    #873
                                                                    Originally posted by KVB
                                                                    Are you sure you aid -115 for the -1.5? I'm talking about earlie, when or about when you posted it.

                                                                    Was it that expensive? I feel like you could have gotten it at -105 or even +105. Honestly asking, maybe a typo here. I'd give you +105 if you say that's what you got, or maybe -1 (-115).
                                                                    Check you prices Mo, you might have typo'd here for sure.

                                                                    You deserve the +105 for the half point and it was there. Maybe you got -105.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • thomorino
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 06-01-17
                                                                      • 45842

                                                                      #874
                                                                      Originally posted by thomorino

                                                                      Winner


                                                                      +2.4 units

                                                                      Some books I use are not posting quarter or half lines for the WNBA and some are, BetMGM is, Draftkings is not.
                                                                      Originally posted by thomorino
                                                                      Sky -1.5 -115 1q
                                                                      Originally posted by thomorino
                                                                      Seattle -6
                                                                      1-1

                                                                      +2.1 units
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ThanksForTheFade
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 04-05-21
                                                                        • 1240

                                                                        #875
                                                                        Originally posted by thomorino
                                                                        Sky -1.5 -115 1q
                                                                        Nice one retard, Lol.

                                                                        Comment
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