Morino stop gambling
Vitter -800
Morino +600
Fight Odds Posted
Vitter -800
Morino +600
Fight Odds Posted
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You are a dumb shit.Originally posted by jjgoldComment -
Liberty-Dream over 83 -115 1hComment -
Meant to post here earlier, forgot.Originally posted by thomorino
This line crept up and Faders could get 84 in may spots in the world at the time.
Faders get ATL/NY UNDER 84 (-110)
Game has started, Good LuckComment -
atl game imo will jump over the totalComment -
Dream Liberty total winnerOriginally posted by thomorino
+4.1 unitsComment -
You are a dumb shitOriginally posted by ThanksForTheFadeNice one retard, Lol.
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3 games today.
I have market info, but I'm a little behind on everything else. Tis was a busy weekend for me.
Offhand, that Conn line lookes low over Minn. I'm guessing every range of forecast is on Conn and so is the market. The books are likely taking a position in the game, for whate ver that info may be worth in the WNBA. THe percentages we gain from market adjustments betting wise aren't nearly as high as they would be in the bigger sports, that's something to note. The raw forecasts tend to be far more precise.
Cacthing up today, I'l see what I an come up with.
Any leans or thoughts here Mo?
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How about Sky/Sparks?
My stacking percentages forecast shows Chicago winning with 82 or 83 points to LA's 71 or 72 points. The non predictive public gauge gives LA more credit with Chicago winning 82-78.
That gauge is also closer to the Total. My Forecast is way off the Total, once again. I think as the season matures we'll see that get closer, may not take long.
The market opened LA -1, why would they do that?
Money obviously hit Chicago and the books obviously blinked, but I do not have too many specifics there. I am waiting on a phone call. Chicago with the steam but I do think the UNDER is the play here.
I'm keeping an eye on the rest of the market as a whole but am strongly leaning UNDER in the LA/CHI game today.
I'd like to se 166 but right now am looking at UNDER 165.5 (-105) as a play here.
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I don’t see anything I like in the WNBA, Minnesota is going to be desperate for a win here even though the Sun are clearly the better teamComment -
My stacking percentages forecast shows Las Vegas winning with 86 or 87 points to Indiana's 75 or 76 points. The non predicitive public gauge has Las Vegas winning 91-76.
Forecast shows the dog on the spread here and the UNDER again as well.
This is a high Total in the market and notice the public gauge is right on the numbers here, or very close. Again I am short some market updates but initally the UNDER smells like the play. The +14 seems like a contrarian nod but a weak one in the WNBA markets.
I lean UNDER but right now my money likes the other LA/CHI UNDER. And I may have to choose, take a small gamble.Comment -
Yeah, some of the spreads are tight but I feel like the Totals are off. I posted the potential under in Chicago. But it's tough to commit.Originally posted by thomorinoComment -
My stacking percentages forecast has Connecticut winning with 89 points to Minnesota's 70 points. The non predictive public gauge has Connecticut winning 82-75.
We're closer to the Total in the stacking forecast this time and the market is even lower than the forecast this time.
But like I said earlier, both forecasts and others I make along the spectrum of handicapping all favor connecticut here.
Market reports I get say connecticut is taking in the money and bets and the books, while they have moved a point, are taking a position here.
I would suspect we see some RLM if this line tries to hit 3 or so and it will keep popping back.
There are elements of the market seeking a Minnesota cover, perhaps even the books themselves.
With cappers like Morino talking about Minnesota being desperate, the story is out there.
I would be on the Minnesota line here, and part of that group that takes the +3 out of the market.
If I can get it, I'll buy and post it. Just missed it at Heritage earlier.
The stacking percentages forecast reaches a certain failure rate when it predicts huge blowouts in relation to the market. This play currently falls into this category, even with contrarian adjustments.
So it's Min or pass for nearly all my styles of betting. Which of course, can really reward us in the WNBA, or really burn us.
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You got me to take a look at the Under there, and I went with it.Originally posted by KVBHow about Sky/Sparks?
My stacking percentages forecast shows Chicago winning with 82 or 83 points to LA's 71 or 72 points. The non predictive public gauge gives LA more credit with Chicago winning 82-78.
That gauge is also closer to the Total. My Forecast is way off the Total, once again. I think as the season matures we'll see that get closer, may not take long.
The market opened LA -1, why would they do that?
Money obviously hit Chicago and the books obviously blinked, but I do not have too many specifics there. I am waiting on a phone call. Chicago with the steam but I do think the UNDER is the play here.
I'm keeping an eye on the rest of the market as a whole but am strongly leaning UNDER in the LA/CHI game today.
I'd like to se 166 but right now am looking at UNDER 165.5 (-105) as a play here.
Capped off a 6-0 day for me.
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Great work!Comment -
Originally posted by pablo222You got me to take a look at the Under there, and I went with it.
Capped off a 6-0 day for me.
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Dan Hughes, coach of Seattle Storm announced retirement, I guess yesterday.
He'll will stay on as asst coach for USA Basketball in Tokyo.
Noelle Quinn the new coach.
What do we think of this Morino?
Perhaps your Chicago future looking that much better.
I see SEA still at +225 and CHI still at +600 to win it all.Comment -
4 games today.
My contacts in Vegas and offshore say there is literally no action on these games yet.
lol
I'll get to work here in a few minutes with posting the forecasts but market analysis when nobody is betting is sort of useless.Comment -
My stacking percentages forecast has Las Vegas winning with 83 points to Conn's 79 points. The non predictive public gauge has Connecticut winning 81-80. The gauge basically hit the opener this time but the spread has crossed 0 and moved towards the stacking forecast.
I side with the stacking forecast here and can see why the line has moved, but I'm not picking anything up this first game.
We will start to track the forecasts, see who's where, winning what, and try to follow the money in the market.
The stacking forecast has Dallas winning with 85 or 86 points to LA's 76 points while the public guage gives LA more credit with Dallas winning 86-82. These are early forecasts and despite them, the line pretty much opened with LA favored but we did see some early trading that briefly made Dallas favored and some houses picked up the market then. So we sort of saw a cross of zero.
LA is getting the money here, but not like Vegas. A better way to put it is that there are some groups heavy on LA here.
I also like both stacking forecasts when it comes to the Totals, with OVER in LA/Conn and the UNDER in LA/Dallas.
No bet in the early games for me, some of my data is just not enough with this light of volume.
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Stacking forecast shows Chicago winning with 80 points to Phoenix's 77 or 78 points but thepublic gauge has Phoenix winning 83-81. The Total is right between the forecasts and the market spread somewhat the same.
What little public there is likes Phoenix here, I wouldn't be surprised if Chicago wins the game. I am considering a Chicago moneyline play here, again going with the forecast.
For the late game the stacking forecast shows Seattle winning with 88 points to Indiana's 76 points. The public gauge has Seattle winning 93-78. One again the public gauge is right at the line and Total while the forecast favors the dog and Under.
Tighter lines right now and I'll continue to watch and wait.
Of all the games so far, the Chicago moneyline or -1 seems like the best look.
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No lines out for tomorrow but here the forecasts and non predictive public gauges as I have them now.
We can compare them to the lines when we get them...
Stacking Public Percentages Guage LV 86 87 87 NY 76 78 CHI 80 81 79 PHO 80 86 IND 81 76 LA 78 84
These are not very sophisticated numbers as it is still early in the season. These are raw numbers and while I do make a range of forecasts and gauges they are all close at this point.
Other forecasts, models, and number crunching should arrive at roughly the same numbers at this point.
Where there are two scores I have each score with roughly equyal probability of occurring.
We'll compare when lines come out.
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Morino any thoughts on tomorrow?
Any leans?Comment -
Who is going to sanction that bout?Originally posted by jjgold
you could get in serious trouble for having two illiterate halfwits in an organized fight. Would be some sort of “mental retard abuse” hate crime. I think thom would win, he is a bit taller at 5’4” and from his beach video, not as obese compared to prussia
Tread careful JjComment -
Originally posted by stake1
You are a dumb shitComment -
Stewart is down to +125 at most books to win mvp. She is by far the best player in the WNBA, and with Bird older and likely to miss multiple games, Howard gone, she’s going to put up big numbers. Joquiel Jones is good too, but she is on a better team and she’s not as good as Stewart.Comment -
Sun to win the championship +1000
Risking 1 unit to win 10
Sun have good balance and Jones is the second best player in the league.Comment -
Can Tina Charles be put in a position to get MVP?
Probably not as the season moves on.Comment -
You're saying you are getting Connecticut Sun to win it all at +1000?Originally posted by thomorino
Are you sure?Comment -
You can, I see it.Originally posted by KVB
Parx PA showing it too.
That's a stellar number and a good buy whe compared to virtually everywhere else Morino.
Draftkings took them off the board.
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Liberty +8 -115Comment -
Why do you do this when you could get +8.5 (-112) at your own shops?Originally posted by thomorino
Do you try to get the worst line?
Faders will likely be getting -8.5 now but they will get -8 (-106) if that's how Morino wants to play it.
Terrrible line Morino, you did not need to buy this as it was 8 for at least an hour before you posted.
You are basically passing on +9, but +8.5 in PA alone.
Good Luck
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Hi ThomorinoOriginally posted by thomorino
Big fan
Just wondering how big of a wager is this?
2u?
Thank youComment -
Originally posted by thomorino
thanks for the fade jerkoff. You are ass diarrhea
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HahahahahahagaComment -
Originally posted by ELNATURALOriginally posted by ThanksForTheFade
thanks for the fade jerkoff. You are ass diarrheaDumb shitsOriginally posted by mjsuax13Comment
