Is sports betting unbeatable?

[MiDNiTe]

Cool story bro

Had the balls to post long streaks of winners in a row why don't u do the same, nah il act like a big man behind my computer

[gojetsgomoxies]

Had the balls to post long streaks of winners in a row why don't u do the same, nah il act like a big man behind my computer

how much do you make per year off it? where do you live?... not asking for either answer to be highly specific....... FWIW, i do believe you

[MiDNiTe]

how much do you make per year off it? where do you live?... not asking for either answer to be highly specific....... FWIW, i do believe you

Look man in not going to bother putting a dollar amount because I can't be stuff defending myself afterwards, no offence but minority of gamblers are aholes and misery loves company, lots of people who lose always root against, obviously not everyone is like that b u will admit if there's a thread where I've won 18 bets in a row I know what I'm doing.

I live in Australia and we have a sports book in nearly every suburb, I know lots of people there and all the workers, there's probably only 2 guys there who don't care that I win and are genuine in rooting for my bet if they know while the rest love to talk shot and hope I lose, this has no effect on the result but it can piss u off. I don't say who I bet or that I lose more often that it seems now, u will be surprised at how much people think it's a right that u have to give them some money when u win big when they're being rude, I can even tell u the days when u can cash in big amounts as there's a day where 0 chance u can cash in a big amount no matter how many different tabs u go to

[StackinGreen]

Yeah man everyone loses gambling, idiot

Yes, while I believe everyone should be skeptical, the pure number of straight losers out there is something to behold. I think this is why you get this lip about winning, they have zero mental capacity to even understand what it might take, it's actually quite breathtaking to see the common man [try to] reason out "luck" handicapping or the process that winners, even if they have losing streaks, go through. Then they'll just focus on a single losing streak and not ever recognize your huge winning streaks. Happens on threads all the time here; I don't have the time to explain recall or selection bias to them.

You wouldn't believe the number of people that can't even discern simple logic about considering betting a side that you presumably like, but then with a bad number (inflated line, whatever) = you stay away. They even will argue with you about how you "would have lost" by not betting a side or total that you were looking at the action on, and stayed away from as a result of line changes (I actually had to tell a guy recently, "How could I have lost if I said if not number X, do not bet the game"). It is really weird. In newer sportsbooks over here in the states a lot of the tellers act like you're being weird or aggressive when you tell them (X amount, pretty large for them) I want this number and when they pop out a ticket with a number that differs, live or whatever, acted like all you said that mattered was the name of the team you wanted. They couldn't even fathom why if you wanted a team at a number for a couple thousand, and they printed out a ticket that wasn't that, why you might think that was an issue. Instead of just saying, yeah, it's hard to lock (this is mostly live betting obviously) and canceling the ticket, they argue with you about how that's just how it is.

Humanity has very few critical thinkers, especially anymore.

[DoctorStrong]

Bet 1% of your bankroll win 54%, its not that difficult

[jjgold]

Most people cant bet 1%

[TommieGunshot]

Most people cant bet 1%

The good ones certainly can’t, because 1% of their money is more than the limits. The bad ones can’t, because $2 minimums is more than 1% of their money.

I’m just curious how someone can insist winning 54% of bets is “not that difficult”.

[totalsguy]

HERES Just TWO EXAMPLES of long term documented winners
Right angle Sports ( handicapper.net ) documented 10 yrs
and overunderexpert.com 6 years 6 MONTHS are net long term WINNERS
and there are hundreds more private parties
BECAUSE EVEN WITH LOSING MONTHS
THEY DON T QUIT They stay strong adjusting bankroll
everyone goes through tough times

tought times dont last tough people do
WINNERS NEVER QUIT AND QUITTERS NEVER WIN
Losers squeal and Winners say deal
When the people who settled the West in the USA

did they turn back at the Rockies?
Learn Money Management
Pros never watch games
it would be like watching each tick on the stock market An Emotional drain
Watching is for entertainment NOT BUSINESS
WINNERS NEVER QUIT AND QUITTERS NEVER WIN
1% Is Correct 2% with totals and multiple year record

[nyplayer33]

Heres the question..is it worth the time?? Most wont win..you pay more for the losers..vig...and the lines are too dam good.

[nyplayer33]

Kc was fown bigtime early...balt lost...how can u win.

[punintended]

Let's make a conclusion..

Beating softbooks: Possible. Not hard if you're betting value. (Value betting: Picking precious odds in soft bookmaker compared to sharp bookmakers. Example: Dallas -3 is -110 @ Pinnacle and Pinnacle changes Dallas -3 to 6 and you pick Dallas -3 at softbookmaker.

Beating asians: Very challenging. Only sharp betting syndicates and real professionals (very rare) can do this.

Yes most guys in europe atleast buy accounts... mostly from FFF or they have some good account seller. Not allowed by bookies but what you gonna do. 10% Roi in asia means different things. Im not talking about having this roi in games where limits are 10+k. Im talking about games where limits are 200-300. Small games with those teams involved only locals or specialist know about. Those games remain untouched from big syndicates simply because they have no interest to bet on games where limits are so low. For example, Scandinavian U soccer leagues like Allsvenskan Norra, Södra etcm norway u19, finnish and so on.

What's FFF?

I'm considering giving this a try.
Seems like a pain in the ass for the friend though. Not only do they need to open the account at the bookie but they also need a payment processor that they will hand over to me and verify KYC everywhere.

Then on my end I have to make sure to use a VPN at all times (is a VPN enough?)

[gilly4315]

if you bet NFL Playoffs, the I would suggest that you are a square of all squares. NFL is to efficient to beat long term.

[dlowilly]

I think shopping around season long prop bets on credit is profitable. One book will have over 8.5 wins -140 while another has that same team under 8.5 wins +160. One of them is wrong.

[Easy-Rider 66]

if you bet NFL Playoffs, the I would suggest that you are a square of all squares. NFL is to efficient to beat long term.

guilty. Bet small do not get hurt. Entertainment purposes only. Real simple.

[jjgold]

Once you think you can win gambling jump off a bridge you’ll be happier

[coolguy73739]

Once you think you can win gambling jump off a bridge you’ll be happier

[alkimia]

In the last 30 days I’ve seen some of the worst beats humanly possible.... buzzer beaters for blown covers... guys fumbling at the 1 yard line for game winners... kickers missing 30 yard field goals for covering overs... the list goes on and on... I’ll make thousands playing poker and just give it back betting on these monkeys in sports... today I announce I’m retiring from betting on sports!!! I’ll be focusing full time on playing high limit hold em and Omaha... this year I’m up high 5 figures playing poker and down about the same about betting on these uneducated monkeys... I will no longer be betting sports!!! I did great for over 15 years of betting on these clowns but this season has opened my eyes completely!! So I hope everyone can kick some ass betting sports but it’s just not for me anymore!!! If you guys ever feel like getting racked at 2-4 hold em I’ll be at betonline grinding it out

I am new to the forum but not to sports betting or to poker. First I would say that sports betting is pretty comparable to poker in a few ways. First if you're wanting to be profitable it doesn't pay to play where the skill level is higher than your current skill level. An obvious difference here would be that in poker sometimes you want to do that to learn some new tricks and or get ready to move up levels but in general this is true To be profitable at playing poker over a long term you need to be capable of honest self assessment and the same is true for sports betting.

While it is generally true that the main objective for sportsbooks isn't to have the most accurate predictions with their lines the fact remains that they are for the most part pretty accurate and especially so when talking about the major sports with a lot of action like NFL and NBA spreads/moneylines. To be profitable in sportsbetting you need to be more accurate than the sportsbook over the long term which depending on where you place your bets that may be hard and it may not be. For example, NBA moneylines from most sportsbooks are really well calibrated. Meaning if a book like pinnicale says a NBA team will win 85% of the time(-567 american/1.18 decimal) the team will actually win slightly less often than that(83.5-84.5). So if the team actually wins say 83% but the book is offering odds at 85% that is a long term losing play for the bettor unless the bettor has some solid reason to assume the team will win more often than 85% of the time.

With that said, there are areas where there isn't as much action and bookies aren't as well calibrated. These are often things like prop bets, game/team totals, etc. If you're wanting to win at sports betting over the long term I'd suggest picking lower hanging fruit or in other words pick fights you actually have a decent chance of winning. Also, I'd say it is very important to think in terms of probabilities instead of black/white. A bayesian based approach is the main way to win at sports betting over any sort of longer term.

[CIS]

What's FFF?

I'm considering giving this a try.
Seems like a pain in the ass for the friend though. Not only do they need to open the account at the bookie but they also need a payment processor that they will hand over to me and verify KYC everywhere.

Then on my end I have to make sure to use a VPN at all times (is a VPN enough?)

FFF = Friends, Family and Fools.
VPN should work fine but if use mobile data then you can change ip when restarting phone longer than 5 min. When using home wifi, then router restart should also help(unless you have static ip). Again longer than 5 min.

[Ardy]

Many try, most fail.

[StackinGreen]

Baseball until halfway through the season.

[Roscoe_Word]

It's beatable, but experience is key. It took me a few years before I had any kind of bankroll to actually take and withstand mini losing streaks here and there. In addition, you have to learn how to handle losing. If, for the most part, you can stay away from chasing and are able to step back and reassess the situation, it will benefit you and your bankroll long term. Lastly, find a philosophy and strategy that works for you. What works for one handicapper, may not necessarily work for you.

Yep, good thoughts. Mentally handling losing streaks is tough but necessary (IMO)

[StackinGreen]

Do you set goals weekly, or just analyze, and wait?

[veriableodds]

HERES Just TWO EXAMPLES of long term documented winners
Right angle Sports ( handicapper.net ) documented 10 yrs
and overunderexpert.com 6 years 6 MONTHS are net long term WINNERS
and there are hundreds more private parties
BECAUSE EVEN WITH LOSING MONTHS
THEY DON T QUIT They stay strong adjusting bankroll
everyone goes through tough times

tought times dont last tough people do
WINNERS NEVER QUIT AND QUITTERS NEVER WIN
Losers squeal and Winners say deal
When the people who settled the West in the USA

did they turn back at the Rockies?
Learn Money Management
Pros never watch games
it would be like watching each tick on the stock market An Emotional drain
Watching is for entertainment NOT BUSINESS
WINNERS NEVER QUIT AND QUITTERS NEVER WIN
1% Is Correct 2% with totals and multiple year record

guy seems legit he posts his plays for free on his tweet account, just glancing every now and then.. Very interesting to see a fellow sports investors eye on things

[veriableodds]

i am speaking of the over/under guy

[HeeeHAWWWW]

guy seems legit he posts his plays for free on his tweet account, just glancing every now and then.. Very interesting to see a fellow sports investors eye on things

You can delete tweets.

Anyone claiming records that isn't tallied by a trusted third party is a waste of time. 99.9999% of them are just plain scammers - deleting losing picks, faking their odds, multiple accounts restarting if they lose, etc etc.

[biggie12]

Once you think you can win gambling jump off a bridge you’ll be happier

Your best post to date

[veriableodds]

You can delete tweets.

Anyone claiming records that isn't tallied by a trusted third party is a waste of time. 99.9999% of them are just plain scammers - deleting losing picks, faking their odds, multiple accounts restarting if they lose, etc etc.

guy stopped posting free

https://twitter.com/OVERUNDEREXPERT

As of 1/16/20 we are only accepting Commercial Sports Media subscription accounts

[gojetsgomoxies]

i have been thinking about this......

-110 = about a 5% commish assuming close to 50% win rate.

seems like a HUGE commission on something like NFL that is considered by almost every one to be highly efficient... that's why line shopping is such a big deal.

[Tyler S]

Sports betting will never be beatable lol. I've seen all the methods.

One of the best methods that might work for you...

you have a balance of 20,000. (Any currency)

You start each day trying to win 1 Currency. at -110 odds.

You lose, you double up (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512) ...

Generally speaking you would have to lose~ more than 10 bets in a row to bust.

I find this strategy to be better than just betting (1-5 units).

1 unit for you could be $100, $1,000.

You just need to make sure you leave yourself enough room to double up incase of losses. I would give yourself atleast 8... Some people only look to win $100 per day. $36,500 / yr. If you have ~ 1,000,000 and you just want to win $100 per day... Completely doable if you asked me.

[Tyler S]

There is no way to know when a working system becomes broken.

[Gaze73]

The best way to win is cash out after a hot run. Let's say you turn $1k into $10k. Now your stakes are bigger, but an inevitable shit run will drop you back to $2k and you'll tilt away the rest. But if you cashed out $9k you'd still have most of the profits and could reload another $1k with bookie's money.

[Tyler S]

I have a friend who doesn't cashout. He keeps going, He never stops. He's gotten from 1k to $100,000+.

I asked him?

What are you trying to achieve with these winnings?

A. Stability.

Why do you feel wasting your entire check and not being able to eat is stable?

A. Addicted.

It feel as if most have no reason to sports bet. Not that you can have a reason, but I have short term goals that enables me.

[VinagreSantos]

Many try, most fail.

Story of my betting time....f..ck...

I´ve learn from Neural Nets, to all the soccer analytics and i still fail.
In the game i´m just a prisoner of my emotions and i´m just afraid of losing. It´s absurd.
And then when i hesitate, i go rogue in the next game....and end up not following the rules...
I just don´t know what to do....

[Bsims]

Story of my betting time....f..ck...
I´ve learn from Neural Nets, to all the soccer analytics and i still fail.
In the game i´m just a prisoner of my emotions and i´m just afraid of losing. It´s absurd.
And then when i hesitate, i go rogue in the next game....and end up not following the rules...
I just don´t know what to do....

That's a common problem. Gambling is an addiction. Like all addictions, you've got to try to manage and control it. I've tried for over 50 years and still struggle with it. Good luck my brother.

[TommieGunshot]

The best way to win is cash out after a hot run. Let's say you turn $1k into $10k. Now your stakes are bigger, but an inevitable shit run will drop you back to $2k and you'll tilt away the rest. But if you cashed out $9k you'd still have most of the profits and could reload another $1k with bookie's money.

Wouldn't starting with $10k and turning it into $100k be a lot better? It shouldn't be too much to come up with that. Amazon pays it's entry level workers that much in just a few months.