I'm looking for Rams +3 at -105....

[DJK]

I just read an interesting fact about the Pats. So, basically the books were trying to do us a favor making the Pats a dog and the bettors screw that up by betting too much on the Pats as the Pats need and thrive being a dog, which they aren't anymore for this SB.

If it wasn't for the idiot coaches with Atlanta, the Pats would be perfect 0-6 ATS in their Super Bowls being the favorites.


The average margin of the victory in the eight prior Super Bowls is 4.3 points. The largest margin was the Eagles winning last year by eight. The largest margin of victory for the New England Patriots was six points, because they won on the first possession of overtime, against Atlanta after trailing 28-3. The Patriots are 3-3 straight up and 1-5 against the spread (the cover being against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite) in the Super Bowl when favored.

[LT Profits]

However, the line going back down to -1.5 would be a bad thing for me since it only means that there will be more money going to the Rams and possibly evening the action which means anything can happen in the game.

No, that would be a great thing for you if it closes at -1.5 because it would mean you crushed the closing line while doing so with the most key number in football.

[DJK]

No, that would be a great thing for you if it closes at -1.5 because it would mean you crushed the closing line while doing so with the most key number in football.

Yes, that I know, but with the even action game anything can happen.

With the lop-sided action, the fix can be in and I'm hoping for that.

[LT Profits]

Yes, that I know, but with the even action game anything can happen.

With the lop-sided action, the fix can be in and I'm hoping for that.

Stop that FIX talk right now, save that for the conspiracy theorists. Major North American team sports are not fixed, only bettors cry fix when they lose.

And there is no way the books end up with balanced action this year with the Pats being at 80% with 5 days to go, if the line goes down, it would mean some very well respected sharps bet the Rams.

[DJK]

Stop that FIX talk right now, save that for the conspiracy theorists. Major North American team sports are not fixed, only bettors cry fix when they lose.

And there is no way the books end up with balanced action this year with the Pats being at 80% with 5 days to go, if the line goes down, it would mean some very well respected sharps bet the Rams.

Ok, I believe you that there is no fix in major sports; I was just hoping anyway.

I just don't get how the money is so lop-sided at the moment on the Pats and yet the books aren't moving the line to get more Rams money to even the action.

Either the books are going to get screwed or the bettors are getting screwed and if anything it would be the latter I would think but who knows.

It's going to be a huge swing for me and since I already made my bets all I can do is sit tight and wait. Damn, time is moving so slow for me. I need to find something to do to get time moved faster.

[LT Profits]

Ok, I believe you that there is no fix in major sports; I was just hoping anyway.

I just don't get how the money is so lop-sided at the moment on the Pats and yet the books aren't moving the line to get more Rams money to even the action.

Either the books are going to get screwed or the bettors are getting screwed and if anything it would be the latter I would think but who knows.

It's going to be a huge swing for me and since I already made my bets all I can do is sit tight and wait. Damn, time is moving so slow for me. I need to find something to do to get time moved faster.

Well for starters, fact that books opened Rams as favorites on a neutral field means that they think Rams are the better overall team, so they may be content taking Pats action as favorites up to a certain point. And they may have enough sharp action on Rams as dogs from whale bettors that they have not yet reached a threshold where they need to move to 3. There are a few exceptions though, Will Hill among them.

[DJK]

Well for starters, fact that books opened Rams as favorites on a neutral field means that they think Rams are the better overall team, so they may be content taking Pats action as favorites up to a certain point. And they may have enough sharp action on Rams as dogs from whale bettors that they have not yet reached a threshold where they need to move to 3. There are a few exceptions though, Will Hill among them.

I was in AC for the whole weekend last weekend and I was extremely lucky not to have lost 2K+ as I was down 1K+ and 500+ before I made comebacks on both and ended up winning a small amount.

I'm heading back for the whole weekend again this Friday, so I guess I will be line watching and if it goes to Rams +3.5 then I'm betting 1/2 of what I'm holding if I don't lose it before Sunday.

Thanks for the information and advice you have given me.

[Renegades]

One of the biggest myths in sports betting is that books dont gamble themselves. They absolutely have games where they take a position (a gamble) if you will. They are content needing the Rams. If the books didnt want to “gamble” they would move the line and keep moving it until money poured in on the rams to make it closer to 50-50 action. 3/3.5 would accomplish that but they are just going to sit on all their pats money and “bet” on the rams

[DJK]

One of the biggest myths in sports betting is that books dont gamble themselves. They absolutely have games where they take a position (a gamble) if you will. They are content needing the Rams. If the books didnt want to “gamble” they would move the line and keep moving it until money poured in on the rams to make it closer to 50-50 action. 3/3.5 would accomplish that but they are just going to sit on all their pats money and “bet” on the rams

I hope you are SO RIGHT about that.

[eaglesfan371]

This dude DJK is one of those guys who believes in every conspiracy story out there. Dude seems like a wacko. Doesn't understand basic line movement, thinks everything is a fix, etc.

[Booya711]

Doesn’t matter what price you get rams at....they will lose by 6+

[DJK]

This dude DJK is one of those guys who believes in every conspiracy story out there. Dude seems like a wacko. Doesn't understand basic line movement, thinks everything is a fix, etc.

You got all that from my posts? Since your nick name is eaglesfan#, you must be from the Philadelphia area and so am I. Is that a nice way to comment about someone in your neck of the woods? Come on now.

Just because I said anything about a fix, it doesn't mean I really believe it. Although, it's very possible when so much money is involved as anything's possible when it's hundreds millions on the line.

Lastly, what don't I understand about the basic line movement? Do you care to go into details? I would like to hear to see if you are right or wrong.

I have a PHD in Electrical Engineering and graduated from UPenn and work as a programmer and has done it for the past 33 years and make a boat load of money, so I'm sure I'm smarter than most that I know. So, I'm pretty certain I'm not a wacko; otherwise I would have been fired from my job a long time ago.

[DJK]

Doesn’t matter what price you get rams at....they will lose by 6+

Did you mean the Pats will lose by 6+?

Aren't you a bit concerned at all that the majority on SBR are on the Pats and they are ALL 100% certain about the Pats?

[DJK]

I thought about going through the threads to see who's on the Pats and who's on the Rams, then thought better of it and decided it's just a waste of time.

However, I know I can count who's on the Rams with my fingers only; for that matter with the fingers on one hand only.

So, we the smallest minority of the Rams backers got it wrong and lose, then so be it.

[DJK]

Doesn’t matter what price you get rams at....they will lose by 6+

At least I agree with what's underneath your nick name.

[Booya711]

DJK thinks Morino has a clue....you lose pal

[Booya711]

Did you mean the Pats will lose by 6+?

Aren't you a bit concerned at all that the majority on SBR are on the Pats and they are ALL 100% certain about the Pats?

You have zero clue here

[DJK]

DJK thinks Morino has a clue....you lose pal

That comment shows how much you know about me. Why bother making a comment without knowing the reality?

Besides, you actually think someone is so bad at picking that they will lose everything? Where does it say that just because thomorino has a losing record in the playoffs that he will get the SB pick wrong too? At least thomorino makes it clear with his posts what his record is on the playoffs, so at least he acknowledges and does not hide that he is losing. Regardless, him losing in the playoffs means nothing. Every pick is 50/50 and the fact that he has been losing during the playoffs means he has a better chance he gets this SB right if you follow the probability.

What thomorino states are good assessment of teams and situations. Why would you even think what he posts are clueless comments; it's far from it. It's just that when betting base on obvious situations isn't always the winning strategy as that's why people are picking the Pats thinking experience, coach, Brady, etc, etc, is almost a lock. It could happen, but if it's that easy we would all be winning all the time.

Wouldn't you think taking the Rams is the harder choice by far and that's why you aren't taking the Rams?

It does't matter what you take or what I take as no one knows for sure what's going to happen in this SB.

All I know is that the money is lop-sided on the Pats and the books aren't moving the line any higher and standing firm at 2.5. That's all I need to know and hope that more money does not land with the Rams by the kick off, and I will be set.

[gauchojake]

Booya you are NOT invited to my superbowl party pal

[DJK]

You have zero clue here

Well, it must be a good thing to have zero clue here since I haven't lost a single week this football season and made quite a bit of money having started with only $500.

I suppose I'm due for a loss after that kind of winning streak and it would suck if I lost since I bet pretty big on the Rams, but fortunately I will still be up and it won't change my life style one bit.

After the SB LIII, I'm done with sports betting until football starts up again next fall as I'm not a degenerate gambler who has to gamble everyday on sports. I will probably be back to casino gambling here and there until then. Hopefully, I will win my SB bets to have more free money to last me in casinos for 9 months.

[DJK]

By the way, good luck with your bet Booya711.

[Bostongambler]

If Patriots don’t win by 6+ I’ll eat my hat.

[DJK]

Doesn’t matter what price you get rams at....they will lose by 6+

By the way, I read somewhere that BetCris odds maker said his computer model came up with Rams -3.5 (not -3.0 but -3.5 and that hook means the world), but he just couldn't see setting the opening line that high on the Rams, so he decided to open it at Rams -1.5.

So, your assessment is quite different from BetCris odds maker's computer model, which I'm sure is WAY MORE ADVANCED than anything anyone has in the public.

[DJK]

If Patriots don’t win by 6+ I’ll eat my hat.

Now, how can we work that out to make sure you do that?

[Booya711]

By the way, good luck with your bet Booya711.

You should not pay attention to Morino

[DJK]

By the way, I read somewhere that BetCris odds maker said his computer model came up with Rams -3.5 (not -3.0 but -3.5 and that hook means the world), but he just couldn't see setting the opening line that high on the Rams, so he decided to open it at Rams -1.5.

So, your assessment is quite different from BetCris odds maker's computer model, which I'm sure is WAY MORE ADVANCED than anything anyone has in the public.

It would probably be more believable if I posted a link to where I read that story. So, I wasted my precious time to look through my browsing history and found the link.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25849924/super-bowl-liii-how-new-england-patriots-became-super-bowl-favorites-minutes-sunday-night

[Bostongambler]

Now, how can we work that out to make sure you do that?

Send salt & pepper just in case.

[DJK]

You should not pay attention to Morino

Just because I'm paying attention to his posts, it does not mean I'm tailing his picks.

As a matter of fact, I have faded his picks if anything and I even thanked him for his picks and asked him to never stop posting his picks.

This SB is probably the only one that I'm on the same page as him.

Wait for it... Any time now thomorino will be on this thread with his fo.

[DJK]

Send salt & pepper just in case.

It will be faster if you just went to any fast food joint to pick some up for free.

[DJK]

All I know is everywhere I read about this Super Bowl and where the money is being bet, it's mostly on the Pats and I don't remember the last time it was remotely close to this Super Bowl how lop-sided the money is on one team.

It could happen, but I rather take my chances with the lesser bet team if anything and it's a lot less by far as of now.

[DJK]

If Patriots don’t win by 6+ I’ll eat my hat.

Just realized Boston is in your nick name, so your opinion on the Super Bowl does not count as you are obviously biased.

[DJK]

This is as of 28th. If the game started now with that much of lop-sided action and the Pats won and covered, then wouldn't you think DraftKings is toast? They aren't budging their line at -2.5 and it's juiced at -114 for the Pats.

I am not an expert in line movements and their juicing, but whatever is happening makes no sense if the majority of the money is on the Pats or else what I'm reading is all lies.

I give up. I already made my bets, so I'm going to stop wasting my time on all this and just wait to watch the game and hope for the best.


• At DraftKings New Jersey sportsbook, 86 percent of the money bet on the point spread and money line was on the Patriots. Bettors also were siding heavily with the over on 56.5 points.

[RangeFinder]

If Patriots don’t win by 6+ I’ll eat my hat.

Let me get you a knife and fork. Enjoy.

[b1slickguy]

If Patriots don’t win by 6+ I’ll eat my hat.

[DJK]

This is as of 3 hours ago tweeted by David Purdum.

Patriots (-2.5, 56.5) vs. Rams: 67.1 percent of bets and 75.9 percent of the money wagered @CaesarsPalace books on the Super Bowl point spread is on New England.