I'm looking for Rams +3 at -105....

[ans61201]

A little too dependent on thinking the books all report the truth on these things.

Put it this way, you’re willing to accept that they take the money on each side into account to rig the game but not that they could publicly lie or fudge these numbers to drive $ in another direction?


Would also say there was a 10-11 week stretch were rams were clearly the best team in football and my guess is they have a lot more “futures liability” on the Rams

[DJK]

A little too dependent on thinking the books all report the truth on these things.

Put it this way, you’re willing to accept that they take the money on each side into account to rig the game but not that they could publicly lie or fudge these numbers to drive $ in another direction?


Would also say there was a 10-11 week stretch were rams were clearly the best team in football and my guess is they have a lot more “futures liability” on the Rams

So, you think the books would lie about their money bet percentages to draw people into betting the other way? Come on now, even I don't believe that and neither do you.

I don't depend on the books' bet percentages to make my bets. I pick and make my bet, which I already did for this Super Bowl, then I watch the bet percentages in hopes that I'm not on the majority; especially if it's the lop-sided majority like how it is now on the Pats.

It's still way too early and lots of money could come in on the Rams like it did for all William Hill books when they moved their line to Pats -3.0 this past weekend. If the money bet becomes even, then I'm good with that but if it tilts towards the Rams, then I would start to worry. If it stays lop-sided like how it is now because none of the other books move the line up, then I can only interpret that as the books gambling with the Rams and letting the public bet away on the Pats.

As to the future liabilities, there is a blog on ESPN showing it's more on the Pats if anything.

If you haven't seen this yet on ESPN, then maybe you should as it's an interesting reading. BetCris odds maker has the Rams pegged at 3.5 points better than the Pats, but he could not see them opening the line at Rams -3.5 so he opened it at Rams -1.5 instead before it got bet to cross zero to Pats -2.5 in the end. That's a 4 point move. It doesn't mean his model is right as it's the total opposite of what ESPN's FPI model picked where ESPN picked NE on both ML and ATS. ESPN's model sucks like hell as they are worse than 50%.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25849924/super-bowl-liii-how-new-england-patriots-became-super-bowl-favorites-minutes-sunday-night

All I can say is if you are on the Pats, then good luck to you.

[biggie12]

DJK your a very naive person i bet.

[DJK]

DJK your a very naive person i bet.

No, you would lose your bet.

[DJK]

I have a lot on this Super Bowl. It's more than usual 2 to 3K.

I'm just trying to figure out if I should bet even more or hedge some back and lose the juice.

[biggie12]

No, you would lose your bet.

Would I though really? I bet many others would disagree with that.


I will have approx 10k on ne come sunday. I got the first 6k at -3 which is shit but still not worried over here.

[DJK]

I just realized that this is the first year that I put my little girl's pic as my avatar and I never lost a single weekend this football season.

She is absolutely the luckiest girl that I know as she has the heart of gold like her mom; even though her mom's luck is the worst.

Hopefully, I win this SB and make it a perfect season. If not, then I guess I will be busy gambling in casinos to get the loss back which won't be easy and may take me a while. I'm not betting on sports anymore after this SB until the next season in the fall, so that's that.

[DJK]

Would I though really? I bet many others would disagree with that.


I will have approx 10k on ne come sunday. I got the first 6k at -3 which is shit but still not worried over here.

That's too bad I couldn't bet with you as I have 11K on the Rams at +3-110 and it's already placed. Had I bet with you and lost, I would have saved 1K juice at least.

I'm in AC for the whole weekend and my plan was to bet even more on the Rams if the line creeps up beyond +3.

Why in the world would you bet the Pats at -3 when everyone had it at -2.5 for over a week unless you bet the alternative line to get the less juiced odd?

If you are that confident with your bet, then good luck to you.

[magpie878]

Almost all early money was on New England, but all I keep hearing on VSin is that most of the money that gets bet overall, will all happen Fri/Sat/Sun... so MAYBE there will be some movement late. Or not.

[DJK]

Almost all early money was on New England, but all I keep hearing on VSin is that most of the money that gets bet overall, will all happen Fri/Sat/Sun... so MAYBE there will be some movement late. Or not.

I have no doubt that there's way more money left to be bet and I have no patience waiting to see it happen. I'm just hoping that the lop-sided bet still holds by the kick off, but it probably won't as one respected odds maker said that it will more likely creep back down to Pats -1.5. I will be happy if all books move to Pats -3.0 or higher and close there, which then I think I have a better chance of winning.

[ans61201]

So, you think the books would lie about their money bet percentages to draw people into betting the other way? Come on now, even I don't believe that and neither do you.

I don't depend on the books' bet percentages to make my bets. I pick and make my bet, which I already did for this Super Bowl, then I watch the bet percentages in hopes that I'm not on the majority; especially if it's the lop-sided majority like how it is now on the Pats.

It's still way too early and lots of money could come in on the Rams like it did for all William Hill books when they moved their line to Pats -3.0 this past weekend. If the money bet becomes even, then I'm good with that but if it tilts towards the Rams, then I would start to worry. If it stays lop-sided like how it is now because none of the other books move the line up, then I can only interpret that as the books gambling with the Rams and letting the public bet away on the Pats.

As to the future liabilities, there is a blog on ESPN showing it's more on the Pats if anything.

If you haven't seen this yet on ESPN, then maybe you should as it's an interesting reading. BetCris odds maker has the Rams pegged at 3.5 points better than the Pats, but he could not see them opening the line at Rams -3.5 so he opened it at Rams -1.5 instead before it got bet to cross zero to Pats -2.5 in the end. That's a 4 point move. It doesn't mean his model is right as it's the total opposite of what ESPN's FPI model picked where ESPN picked NE on both ML and ATS. ESPN's model sucks like hell as they are worse than 50%.

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25849924/super-bowl-liii-how-new-england-patriots-became-super-bowl-favorites-minutes-sunday-night

All I can say is if you are on the Pats, then good luck to you.

Lol it’s just silly that you think the sites you read to tell you where the money is are 100% accurate, and don’t believe they could ever be fudged with, but are willing to believe that professional sports leagues who are worth billions and billions rig their games so that Vegas isn’t in the hole millions 😂🤣 like most conspiracy theorists it’s wild logic that doesn’t have a lot common sense to back it.

I have a futures rams bet that I’m not super confident in but letting ride, so no, not a pats backer, just think you have some odd logic and things that you believe matter in your picks, but hey that’s half this site so more power to ya dude

[ans61201]

I have a lot on this Super Bowl. It's more than usual 2 to 3K.

I'm just trying to figure out if I should bet even more or hedge some back and lose the juice.

Lol this is simple stuff man. You’re going back n forth on a game, “wondering if you should bet more on a a team or hedge out” so any way you slice that you’re not confident in one outcome or the other and are on a site full of a bunch of people who don’t know shit who will tell you they’re 100% confident each direction, it’s a coin toss game and you recognize that but are trying to find a reason to bet it huge because it’s the super bowl and the final game. It’s a losing strategy. I’ve been there. These are not the games to be going all out on. Maybe you’ll win some $ on this but in the long run this is a BAD strategy that will burn you

[ans61201]

I just realized that this is the first year that I put my little girl's pic as my avatar and I never lost a single weekend this football season.

She is absolutely the luckiest girl that I know as she has the heart of gold like her mom; even though her mom's luck is the worst.

Hopefully, I win this SB and make it a perfect season. If not, then I guess I will be busy gambling in casinos to get the loss back which won't be easy and may take me a while. I'm not betting on sports anymore after this SB until the next season in the fall, so that's that.

There’s all the answer needed to my post above. Lose this bet then chase in the casino because the games are over. You’re calling others on the forum losing gamblers. This is going to be a rough lifestyle for you with these strategies.

[gauchojake]

She is my little girl who is now 8 years old and she told me to bet the Rams too.

They are on the Bengals this year right?

[DJK]

They are on the Bengals this year right?

It's interesting how you found this thread and asked me that.

No, they both picked the Rams.

Then, the older one asked what the Bengals are (probably because she is now 3 years older and her thinking is better) and when I explained to her that they are tigers, she changed her mind and picked the Bengals (tigers). The little one stuck with the Rams, but she has really lousy luck with things. Even back in '19, she blurted out Rams first and the older one just followed.

I rarely ask them what they like as I asked them only once this season several weeks back when I wasn't sure which side. I bet what they liked and they were both wrong and I lost. Again the little one blurted out what she liked first and the older one just followed. They don't know that I lost since they have no interest in football and I don't tell them what happened.

I believe in 50/50, so when I asked them about the Super Bowl and they both picked the Rams initially, I should go with them since they were wrong the last time.

However, since my older girl (one in the avatar) changed her mind and picked the Bengals, I can't go against her as she is the lucky one.

You know how the kids are, they like animals. So, the Rams made more sense to them than whatever the heck the Patriots were back in '19.

I should have went with the better QB 3 years ago instead of the idiot Goff. The Rams defense did their job in '19. It's their stupid ass offense who couldn't score.

I'm going with the better QB this year.

[Al Masters]

I'm going with the better QB this year.

Probably better off sticking with the kids and animal names.