Can a poker strategy work in sports gaming
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FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#176Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#178I should have added this for viewers who didn't read the entire post. I know I like to ramble. But I have found the best book that rewards me. Unfortunately it's unavailable to US players (888)...it does a few draw backs, but the rewards are great.
1) its US currency...so costs are much higher to deposit
2) when it's withdrawal time depending on the market, I may lose or gain a little more...at this time for every $1000USD I receive $1325CAD (minus a small charge).
3) REWARDS: I receive 1-$100USD FREE BET EACH WEEK...$400 a month
PLUS: I accumulate enough POINTS like any casino approx. $30-$40USD per week...extra $150 per month
**I have not even touched the FREE BETS or reward points at this time** my point? even if I do BUST (to me it's free I already have my original chip stack in the BANK), I will have plenty of BONUS CASH to start again, without making a deposit. My theory takes advantage of every extra I can get.
I'm approximating mind you, but my guess by the time I end this I will have in excess of $1500USD to play again.
That's why I have mentioned in the past to find the right BOOK that fills your needs.
Hey Money this is for you and your pals...NOT ALL CANADIENS ARE STUPID FKN GAMBLERS! and my I.Q? well you figure it out.
This is not about tooting my horn and it is NOT FAKE NEWSComment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#179Tampoon, hot streaks only exist in retrospect. They say absolutely nothing about the future, particularly in sports betting.
In poker you can get "in the zone" and start outplaying opponents even without good cards (making them fold winners or induce calls from worse hands), but you simply can't do it in sports betting.
And if you're playing any two in poker because you've won a couple of hands in a row and think you're hot you're simply just burning EV, no matter if you happen to win those particular hands or not.
Please keep an open mind...if you were in a game, lets say the WORLD SERIES OF POKER...who would you fear the most?...for me Daniel Negreanu..is a prime example...Why? because here's fearless and you would never know what he's holding. He's a pro and he has Poker sense that we just don't have. When he's on a roll he becomes more aggressive and wins...sometimes pot after pot. When he busts out...sure he is pissed, but he smiles and more than likely had learned something new for the future. But when he is leading, he more than likely took advantage of good cards when he had them, on a ROLL. Doesn't always have to be PP a's or top 3 pair you're right...My point!...Sports Wagering for me is taking advantage of those STREAK's when I get them... Being a better capper, improves my chances. After every loss, I check and see if I can learn something, for the future. Just like Daniel when he busts out. I'm not asking anyone to agree with me...not my point. The fact is...when I do get aggressive, I play much different than the majority of people. So in theory only, it makes sense to me. I was no different than anyone other Sports Gambler here. But for me...it only produced mediocre results. I've been working on this for quiet some time and it changes and evolves day by day... when I learn or can add another tool to my capping check list.
Having said that...and when I break down a game, I always feel like I have a great starting hand and have confidence in every play, which allows me to take advantage of a HOT STREAK. As long as I don't get rivered by PP deuces.(Baylor) 60% from the arc... When the hand or play wins... it's time to be aggressive for me, I'm not worrying about unit's. This won't work for most... the ACTION JUNKIE...it's about being patient and picking limited amount of games...34 hands 21 days...1.6 per day on average. SO ANTE UP AND DEAL! time to get ready for tonight.
BTW Juice thanks for replying and GOOD LUCK tonight.Comment -
RudyRuetiggerSBR Aristocracy
- 08-24-10
- 65084
#180do people fall for this?
this is the exact person that either needs educated or banned
since he edited all of his first post, i think he just needs educatedComment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#181No more debating...it's distracting...Thank you and this is for you Reg..I'm taking the time because you may appreciate this and hope it helps. When breaking down this particular play I was leaning with the home team. They have been money especially at home laying chalk. They are 9-0 at home 8-1 ATS...11-0 overall as fave. Pretty awesome! it was going to be my play until I dug a little deeper... to see if I can up that. I think I did, so I'm changing my play, but staying on this game. So let's break down some things I found while capping and researching. First both teams are loaded with returning players especially KS, THE SAME STARTING 5 that got them to the elite 8. last year.. hence the change.
OKLAHOMA: OFFENSIVE SCORING RANKED #140 NATIONALLY
Since losing their star player last year, OU coach has changed this years team approach, from the high tempo run and gun offense. To a more disciplined style and defensive approach. They have actually held some decent teams to 60pts or lower including: Wisco, Dayton, Wichata St Texas Tech and Iowa St, who was #41 nationally scoring points last week to name a few. Oklahoma has been amazing defensively, especially the last 15 mns of the game, limiting opponents to shooting a combined 33% FG and 25% shooting from behind the arc.
I have a ton more but leaving at that.
KANSAS STATE: OFFENSIVE SCORING RANKED #254 NATIONALLY:
KS has even been more impressive this year defensively. KS is ranked #5 nationally in scoring defense holding opponents to a mear 59 ppg. They're near the top of many more defensive statistics. KS has held 10 of 16 opponents to less than 60 this year and only once a team has topped 70.
Having said that, both teams Strengths are defense and shutting teams down. Since every game in conference is so important, I believe each team will play to their strength's...I believe the winner will score less than 65 and the UNDER has tremendous value. I locked in last night at 132.5, each site varies but Vegas has it at 131. Just hoping the game doesn't go into OT...and get crushed by pocket two's!
I feel like I'm holding a very good hand here and I'm confident. Remember no game is a LOCK or GUARANTEE. Saying that my play today at 7pm is:
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS/OKLAHOMA SOONERS U-132.5 -115 bet $75 return $142.50Thanks for the reply Reg, this helps keep me focused.
Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#182
I edit for a reason Rudy...sorry about that and I'm not saying why? I'm not trying to fool or have any one fall for it...but lately... in the last two years especially... people are always thinking of some kind of conspiracy... and the trust has disappearedComment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#183And Rudy FYI...I will be editing the post you are referring to by game time...for personal reasons and I shouldn't have to explain. I'm sorry if some how my editing has offended you.Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#184Furthermore...If I was banned... it wouldn't bother me a bit. I will continue to make my real friends money. I only wanted to share... that's it...no conspiracy.Comment -
danshan11SBR MVP
- 07-08-17
- 4101
#185No more debating...it's distracting...Thank you and this is for you Reg..I'm taking the time because you may appreciate this and hope it helps. When breaking down this particular play I was leaning with the home team. They have been money especially at home laying chalk. They are 9-0 at home 8-1 ATS...11-0 overall as fave. Pretty awesome! it was going to be my play until I dug a little deeper... to see if I can up that. I think I did, so I'm changing my play, but staying on this game. So let's break down some things I found while capping and researching. First both teams are loaded with returning players especially KS, THE SAME STARTING 5 that got them to the elite 8... hence the change.
OKLAHOMA: OFFENSIVE SCORING RANKED #140 NATIONALLY
Since losing their star player last year, coach has changed this years team approach, from the high tempo run and gun offense. To a more disciplined style and defensive approach. They have actually held some decent teams to 60pts or lower including: Wisco, Dayton, Wichata St Texas Tech and Iowa St, who was #41 nationally scoring points last week to name a few. Oklahoma has been amazing defensively, especially the last 15 mns of the game, limiting opponents to shooting a combined 33% FG and 25% shooting from behind the arc.
I have a ton more but leaving at that.
KANSAS STATE: OFFENSIVE SCORING RANKED #254 NATIONALLY:
KS has even been more impressive this year defensively. KS is ranked #5 nationally in scoring defense holding opponents to a mear 59 ppg. They're near the top of many more defensive statistics. KS has held 10 of 16 opponents to less than 60 this year and only once a team has topped 70.
Having said, both teams Strengths are defense and shutting teams down. Since every game in conference is so important, I believe each team will play to their strength's...I believe the winner will score less than 65 and the UNDER has tremendous value. I locked in last night at 132.5, each site varies but Vegas has it at 131. Just hoping the game doesn't go into OT...and get crushed by PP2's
I feel like I'm holding a very good hand here and I'm confident. Remember no game is a LOCK or GUARANTEE. Saying that my play today at 7pm is:
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS/OKLAHOMA SOONERS U-132.5 -115 bet $75 return $142.50Thanks for the reply Reg, this helps keep me focused.
Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#188With all due respect...if there are any Mod's reading this...I have never taken the time to read the rules of SBR...am I breaking any rules? serious question? Like I said I've been following this site for years and knew it wasn't easy bringing something new to the table. I'm starting to see that...it's not easy. There are so many other people in this forum that are here for the wrong reason. I'm not naming them, but all they do is troll threads and fire insults. There have been only two that have commented on this thread. Do you think telling fellow members to fuk off and suk cok is appropriate? I hear it every day in other posts, it's either new members or actual people that either win or lucky or whatever. How about posting personal information that they have found on-line? That's none of their business...but, I guess that's okay here...sorry if I sound a LITTLE IRRITADED...for the most part... members have at least been respectful and asked good questions whether they agreed or disagreed. Nothing like a good debate, but please be respectful. I guess that makes me cocky, well to each his own, but I'm only trying to help. GOOD LUCKComment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#189Good question and thanks...I didn't say it was a good bet...I said I was holding a good hand and confident with it. Good hand was only referring to as a Poker term sorry?Comment -
kingdomSBR Posting Legend
- 07-25-10
- 10099
#190No more debating...it's distracting...Thank you and this is for you Reg..I'm taking the time because you may appreciate this and hope it helps. When breaking down this particular play I was leaning with the home team. They have been money especially at home laying chalk. They are 9-0 at home 8-1 ATS...11-0 overall as fave. Pretty awesome! it was going to be my play until I dug a little deeper... to see if I can up that. I think I did, so I'm changing my play, but staying on this game. So let's break down some things I found while capping and researching. First both teams are loaded with returning players especially KS, THE SAME STARTING 5 that got them to the elite 8... hence the change.
OKLAHOMA: OFFENSIVE SCORING RANKED #140 NATIONALLY
Since losing their star player last year, coach has changed this years team approach, from the high tempo run and gun offense. To a more disciplined style and defensive approach. They have actually held some decent teams to 60pts or lower including: Wisco, Dayton, Wichata St Texas Tech and Iowa St, who was #41 nationally scoring points last week to name a few. Oklahoma has been amazing defensively, especially the last 15 mns of the game, limiting opponents to shooting a combined 33% FG and 25% shooting from behind the arc.
I have a ton more but leaving at that.
KANSAS STATE: OFFENSIVE SCORING RANKED #254 NATIONALLY:
KS has even been more impressive this year defensively. KS is ranked #5 nationally in scoring defense holding opponents to a mear 59 ppg. They're near the top of many more defensive statistics. KS has held 10 of 16 opponents to less than 60 this year and only once a team has topped 70.
Having said, both teams Strengths are defense and shutting teams down. Since every game in conference is so important, I believe each team will play to their strength's...I believe the winner will score less than 65 and the UNDER has tremendous value. I locked in last night at 132.5, each site varies but Vegas has it at 131. Just hoping the game doesn't go into OT...and get crushed by PP2's
I feel like I'm holding a very good hand here and I'm confident. Remember no game is a LOCK or GUARANTEE. Saying that my play today at 7pm is:
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS/OKLAHOMA SOONERS U-132.5 -115 bet $75 return $142.50Thanks for the reply Reg, this helps keep me focused.
Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#191
King if you have a hard time deciding a pick and want to add just that little bit extra confidence to back that play up. Go to each team's official site and read their TEAM PREVIEW for that particular game. IT WORKS and I can't tell you how beneficial it is has been.Comment -
TheMoneyShotBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-14-07
- 28672
#192Not so sure Rudy... guy is linked to that Shooter handle in some fashion. Seems like they are in on something.Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#193OMG!! really MONEY! you are the KING OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES, I don't even want to tell you what I'm thinking right now. But you seriously think that I am somehow the Shooter? or even linked to him? He has become a fan of mine, I can't argue that... He is an entertainer and he makes me LMAO! Whether you think he is an air bettor or not, I don't care and honestly I don't either. One thing for sure and get it out of your thick head... he knows his shit on Hockey! I will continue to tale some of his Hockey picks. Why? because he has won me money and my wallet is thicker thanks to him. Do you have any friends?Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#194
What is an uneducated person?
uneducated person - an ignorant person. ignoramus, know nothing. unskilled person - a person who lacks technical training. aliterate, aliterate person - a person who can read but is disinclined to derive information from literary sources.
straight from the dictionary...*Doesn't derive information from literary sources...hmmm... is that why you believe in conspiracy theories and not real news?*
Comment -
Slipknot26SBR Hall of Famer
- 07-17-15
- 5046
#195Touche
Brown Noser
A person who acts favorably to The Shooter to gain stasis or fancy that will eventually be used to their advantage. Such as a acceptance in a group. Usually brown nosers will do anything to gain the approval of The Shooter .
These people can also be described as losers because they can’t work for what they want, instead they play dirty and butter-up to The Shooter into getting what they want.
Also , Brown is reference of fecal matter from lifting ones nose up inside the anal region of The ShooterComment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#196Touche
Brown Noser
A person who acts favorably to The Shooter to gain stasis or fancy that will eventually be used to their advantage. Such as a acceptance in a group. Usually brown nosers will do anything to gain the approval of The Shooter .
These people can also be described as losers because they can’t work for what they want, instead they play dirty and butter-up to The Shooter into getting what they want.
Also , Brown is reference of fecal matter from lifting ones nose up inside the anal region of The ShooterComment -
Cuse0323BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 12-09-09
- 30169
#197What’s PP2’s?Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#198I should add this as well...in no means am I stereotyping uneducated people... there are enough that are smarter... I know enough friends that don't have an education...difference is they all have brains...it's the ones that don't, that should scare people...That's why as a Canadian we worry about the hordes that follow their leader...I really hope he isn't impeached...bc look the fuk out! they will come crawling out every hole that they've been hiding in for the decades. And as grandfather that has American grand kids I worry.Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#201Sorry for the error folks...my play on Eastern Michigan was a winning ticket yesterday ($138.75 return). I did lose the .5 Ante on the ML with EM. Having said that I will continue on with my 2nd pick of this round..( I did use the ML pick as part of my over all record) So, I'm adding an additional $63.75 to the next play. total $138.75
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS/OKLAHOMA SOONERS U 131.5 -115 (line dropped) bet $63.75 return $121.13Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#202No time for details: next up: Bet pending:
GEORGIA STATE YELLOW JACKETS +9 -124
Comment -
juicernameSBR Hall of Famer
- 10-14-15
- 6906
#203What Danshan is trying to make you understand is; the bookmakers are also well well aware of all the square information you quoted (and much more). That knowledge is taken into account when they decided to set the line of 132.5, and one of many reasons why they didn't open at 115.5 or 166.5.
So you obviously think that information is important enough to take into account but you also already acknowledged that the info is in the line you bet at, so wheres the edge?
Aren't you just playing into the hands of the books making a coin toss decision on a line that has all the information you use in the line already?Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#204Before I say anything, I know most here were hoping I lost that game so they could have a good laugh. That's fine that's what a lot like to here do...I can handle the criticism I don't second guess my self. After checking the box score...KS had one of their best FG %50 and TP 45%'s of the year...shooting 41% and 31% on the season ppg. Secondly, where was Oke's amazing DEFENSE in the last 15 mn's?...54 pts in the 1st half...81 in the 2nd. On the positive side...I would have lost with the Oke pick had I not dug deeper, THE RIGHT PLAY WAS KS.
So what did I learn in that game?...Look out for Kansas State in the future. With the same starting 5 back from last year's squad that made the Elite 8, they will be a force to be reckoned with and I will be watching close. Like I said before no game is ever a LOCK. And again...these picks are for the RECORD ONLY. and will be used solely for my records, to hopefully make even stronger.Comment -
kingdomSBR Posting Legend
- 07-25-10
- 10099
#205Thank you Kingdom, but before I get into that let me be clear to Dan or anyone else reading this. I get the questions, but wasn't quite sure why you continue to ask them...the answer is clear and I should have mentioned it. This thread was never an attempt for people to tale my picks. It was only to be used as being "ON THE RECORD". it was for me... to get myself more motivated...to get better and so far it has worked...I feel zoned in as someone said earlier.
King if you have a hard time deciding a pick and want to add just that little bit extra confidence to back that play up. Go to each team's official site and read their TEAM PREVIEW for that particular game. IT WORKS and I can't tell you how beneficial it is has been.Comment -
kingdomSBR Posting Legend
- 07-25-10
- 10099
#206ucf game very intriguing. they are clearly the better team. wsu has lost at home twice already. state has a 4 game losing streak. but the line is sitting at 2.5 all day. when everything seems so one sided yet the line is where it is...Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#207What Danshan is trying to make you understand is; the bookmakers are also well well aware of all the square information you quoted (and much more). That knowledge is taken into account when they decided to set the line of 132.5, and one of many reasons why they didn't open at 115.5 or 166.5.
So you obviously think that information is important enough to take into account but you also already acknowledged that the info is in the line you bet at, so wheres the edge?
Aren't you just playing into the hands of the books making a coin toss decision on a line that has all the information you use in the line already?Good point and noted...but the SQUARE play you are talking about was OKLAHOMA the stats were all in their favor..but I didn't hear anyone here say KS has 5 returning starters from the ELITE 8 team (comes with research). As well.it was the most points they have scored in the last 10 games vs a pretty good defensive team...I missed out by one made 3...I can live with the decision and stand by it...but as always..its easier to criticize when the game is Over...
There is a lot of negativity around here and it really is distracting. No worries I will continue to post my pick and that's it...no more debating and appreciate your reply..Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#208As well...believe me I know everything about setting lines btw. Please tell me something I don't know CAPTAIN OBVIOUS.Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#209Further more... making the decision to share what I was doing was not an easy decision. I've been reading material here for years and had a gut feeling I would be criticized whether I won or Lost, because for most that's what they do. I see a lot of losers here that are angry that other people are actually winning...Where are their threads? and picks? so we can all jump over them. This forum should be here to help and share information in hopes that we can all WIN! unfortunately its the exact opposite.Comment -
FestoonSBR Wise Guy
- 12-22-18
- 605
#210START DATE DEC 28th thru JANUARY 15th (21 days): 34 PLAYS
RECORD: 18W-17L-2P
ORIGINAL CHIP STACK: $1000...CURRENT CHIPSTACK: $1560.75 with one WITHDRAWAL of $1000 (MY BUY-IN)
CHIPS RISKED: $6286.O7
ANTE SIZE: $75
UNITS GAINED: +21
**Dropped $75 on the GT game**Comment
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