Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[jjgold]

Lol buying puts
A Square born every minute
Mathematically impossible show profits buying puts and calls

Learn about probabilities

Options all about implied Vol and selling premiums whatever strategy you choose

[Slurry Pumper]

I got PUTS in SPY, IWM, SMH, and QQQ that expire mid Jan. ALL in the money. I take small profits daily so I don't get whipsawed around when the buyers come back. Santa's giving coal this Christmas although for some people that would be a nice thing.

[d2bets]

Lol buying puts
A Square born every minute
Mathematically impossible show profits buying puts and calls

Learn about probabilities

Options all about implied Vol and selling premiums whatever strategy you choose

jj never heard of asymmetric returns. Get back to school, son.

[homie1975]

We have washout on a price momentum basis, we don't have washout readings on a bullish % or % of stocks above their 50 & 200 day MAs. We'll probably get a nice bounce, but it won't have enough to sustain the bounce into a longer term rally.

I just averaged down on the following positions that i am down ~75% or more:

ASAN
SNAP
UPST

[jjgold]

Good thread but a long of wrong info on strategy

Best of luck!

[homie1975]

Good thread but a long of wrong info on strategy

Best of luck!

freudian slip, Coach

LONG is not WRONG.......LONG TERM is RIGHT !!

holding ASAN and SNAP and UPST long, hence my average down.

i expected SNAP to get acquired at some point.

[milwaukee mike]

jj never heard of asymmetric returns. Get back to school, son.

he plays dumb and believes the lie that 80% of options expire worthless... even if that was true you can make money on the long side... well 90% of sports bettors lose money but that doesn't mean you have to be stupid

mathematically impossible that i bought $2.50 cvna/real puts for $0.10 that are now worth $0.80/$1.50? i'm up 700%/1400%, someone that shorted the stock could be AT MOST up 100% and they have to live in fear of a squeeze

i would keep buying puts on junk like that, where it is going to 0... or gme which i would guess is a $5 stock again at some point in 2023

[jjgold]

One of. Skirmishes with buying options is you cannot time the market

Basically Mike did make a good point same % losing sports bettors vs option buyers

[milwaukee mike]

One of. Skirmishes with buying options is you cannot time the market

Basically Mike did make a good point same % losing sports bettors vs option buyers

totally agree with that, other than slurry there aren't many who can time market puts... the only puts i would buy are on overpriced garbage companies that lose tons of money

[jjgold]

Mike how do you do buying calls and Puts?

If your talking about low buying power in your account vertical call
And put spreads tremendous

I say those sellers of verticals even though small profits and losses will do better 1 year time frame as a whole Vs buyers of put and calls

[milwaukee mike]

Mike how do you do buying calls and Puts?

If your talking about low buying power in your account vertical call
And put spreads tremendous

I say those sellers of verticals even though small profits and losses will do better 1 year time frame as a whole Vs buyers of put and calls

i do covered calls on stuff like bp/psx/wynn, where i don't think there is huge long-term upside but i still don't mind holding the stock (at certain levels)

puts, i mostly buy naked on companies i think are going way down... or sometimes i sell out of the money puts on casino/consumer stocks (cbrl/rrr/sam) that for example i don't want to buy at 95 but i'm ok at 85, if not just keep collecting the premiums

never really deal with spreads, and my buying power is way up there

[Yulia74]

Apple hit new 52-week lows

[milwaukee mike]

Apple hit new 52-week lows

still double where it was 3 years ago... and 3 years ago the alternatives were less appealing (1 yr cds at 1% instead of 4.8%) and i would argue apple had a much more promising future

stocks like aapl, dis, amzn, tsla, i think are still way too high... i wouldn't pay more than 10x earnings (p/e of 10) for any one of those... no idea how any of those could possibly make more money 2 years from now than they are making today

[Slurry Pumper]

OK going into the close I sold some more of those Puts I got an abundance of that expire mid Jan, and picked up some calls in the QQQ, IWMs and SPYs that expire on Friday. We'll see how it goes for the rest of the day and perhaps the next few days. If tomorrow continues down, I'll sell a few more Puts and do the same thing, but I kind of expect a bounce from this point (10 minutes ago now) on.

[Slurry Pumper]

still double where it was 3 years ago... and 3 years ago the alternatives were less appealing (1 yr cds at 1% instead of 4.8%) and i would argue apple had a much more promising future

stocks like aapl, dis, amzn, tsla, i think are still way too high... i wouldn't pay more than 10x earnings (p/e of 10) for any one of those... no idea how any of those could possibly make more money 2 years from now than they are making today

I agree, stuff like AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, and others especially the Fangs are off my long list for this year again and on the short list with either Puts or actual short plays.

[Snowball]

see the charts for war stocks TXT and DCO look bullish but still early enough for calls

[Slurry Pumper]

While I still think there is a bounce into the end of the week, I can't ignore the bear flag on all the daily charts. Another leg down is what it looks like to me but I will stick with the small bump up into Friday. Like JJ thinks, it is difficult to predict market directions although I'm not that bad at it. A better than 50-50 shot to rise towards 390ish on the SPY then a dump after the new year.

[Yulia74]

[homie1975]

it looks like our SBR Forum might be shutting down soon.

where should we take our stock thread ?

[Madison]

Quantitative Tightening and the effect on equities

Don't hear enough on QT in my opinion. Thoughts?

Quantitative Tightening Will Send Shockwaves Through Markets – Buy This To Stay on Solid Ground | Total Wealth Research

[Madison]

it looks like our SBR Forum might be shutting down soon.

where should we take our stock thread ?

HUH?????

[Snowball]

One of. Skirmishes with buying options is you cannot time the market

Basically Mike did make a good point same % losing sports bettors vs option buyers

Naked, yes. The issue with the stock market over the last decade is too much, new, and automated
top-down control that is built into the machine. It IS a machine now. Has been. The Fed and the Largest elite groups, of which there are NOT many, control it all... and if you dig too far towards the bottom, you are going to encounter scams and share-selling entrepreneurs that finance their operations and personal wealths on the backs of shareholders.

The stock "market" is not what it used to be. Every morning when you see the opening pre-determined, that reality is projected. I miss the old days but they aren't coming back. A whole generation of so-called traders and investors have "made" lots of money by being lazy, uneducated, inexperienced and trusting. It paid off... and it hurt lots of better traders who could not trust the new.

Now, it's ready to go the other way. The easy money ain't going to be easy... that's the 2023 prediction. Interest rates and geopolitical stress are why. QE debased our currency so badly that it cannot be debased further without civil upheaval. These people are not geniuses. They are nothing but counterfeiters, corrupt politicians, and computer programmers.

[Madison]

HUH?????

Just caught up in players talk.

[homie1975]

still no flush out of the weakest hands.

many of them still remain.

until they get flushed out, a bottom not formed yet.

[Slurry Pumper]

Reviewing the day today shows that the SPY, QQQ, IWM, and SMH all pretty much did the same thing where it opens flat and then a steady march down the rest of the day. At around 2:30 today I bought another dose of the very same CALLS in SPY, IWM, QQQ, and SMH I got yesterday, just like I said I would, after taking some more profits from the longer term PUTS bought earlier in the month. A few indices closed really close to but mostly above the support levels, and as trading goes, it isn't a bad spot to try CALLS because of the proximity of price for the SPY to the $375.50 support level on the hourly chart, or QQQ's relation to $259.50, or SMH to 195.25 all qualify as being right near a possible inflection point. IWM actually closed below the $170.50 support, and only XLF was able to realistically not lose that much, but even it close right above a 100 hourly support level.
A close on an hourly chart for any of these Indices below the stated levels would be a clue of a further larger collapse. Until this happens, there remains a rescue operation that could happen with a rip you a new year sized hole, and it may happen as a momentum thing with a quick drop followed by buying volume, so a good thing to look for would be a drop in the futures to begin the day and wait to see if there is a mid day turn around which magically happens at or around the hourly closes (10:30, 11:30, 1:30 and possibly 2:30 if the price remains flat enough all day).

[milwaukee mike]

still no flush out of the weakest hands.

many of them still remain.

until they get flushed out, a bottom not formed yet.

weakest hands get flushed out first... heck they were flushed out of crypto/meme stocks a long time ago

[homie1975]

weakest hands get flushed out first... heck they were flushed out of crypto/meme stocks a long time ago

yes, i misspoke, i meant "still not full flush out of the weakest hands".

there is a high volume of the weakest hands still in the market, looking for the next bounce so they can bolt out.....

[milwaukee mike]

yes, i misspoke, i meant "still not full flush out of the weakest hands".

there is a high volume of the weakest hands still in the market, looking for the next bounce so they can bolt out.....

i always thought the dummies sell at the bottom... huge capitulation days are when market opens way down and closes way up

then again it all depends on what you're holding... guys with oil stocks, pharma, weapons, and staples are doing fine... if you're holding tech and high beta stuff you're suicidal

[Slurry Pumper]

Finally caught on a little bit yesterday with the markets all making gains at the end of the day after stalling out at around the $384.25. This morning the SPY is hanging out at the $381.50 ish spot which just about the 20 Hr. moving average. This is a good level to either hold or sell so going into the end of the year, I'm still bullish as I need to git rid of these calls that expire in a few hours, so we'll be on the case looking for any movement with dispersed exiting as the day moves on. If there are a boat load of people who are doing the same thing, it could be a pretty ugly sell day before the new year also.

[Yulia74]

happy new year

[jjgold]

market is dead at least 1 more year

[slewfan]

Biden's America.

• Stocks Finish Worst Year Since 2008
  Stocks are closing out 2022 with more losses, giving the S&P 500 its worst year since 2008. The benchmark index fell 0.3% Friday, the last trading day of the year, leaving it down 19.4% for the year.

[d2bets]

Biden's America.

• Stocks Finish Worst Year Since 2008
  Stocks are closing out 2022 with more losses, giving the S&P 500 its worst year since 2008. The benchmark index fell 0.3% Friday, the last trading day of the year, leaving it down 19.4% for the year.

And it was up 27% in 2021. Don't mention that.

[slewfan]

And it was up 27% in 2021. Don't mention that.

OK.

[ex50warrior]

Are the guys who were touting TSLA still around?? What a drubbing it's taken! At what level is it a buy?