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I took a trade on SPY poots and scaling into UVXYComment -
Sorry about the Pac last night but the wrong team was favored in my opinion, and a hour before the game I could still get +3.5 was just a load up time. Surprisingly points were scored but I only had some lunch money on that.
Today I already unloaded all of the Calls I had left for the week after the initial rush this morning, and turn right around to purchase them PUTS. Kind of surprised there wasn't a bigger kick this morning, but after next week I see the drop coming.Comment -
Might get an end of the week meltdown into the weekend here even the typical Friday floater isn't doing so well like it usually does.Comment -
Despite my slow pace of loading up on PUTS for all the indices, I think going into the holidays overall the markets rally. Looking for the 200 DMA ($405.81 SPY), and the 100DMA ($292 QQQ). Others like IWM, SPH, XLF, all should be melting up.Comment -
Probably going to continue the melt up into the holiday's but I will caution that the Fed minutes do come out today at 2 PM. My overall theme is to play the rally with short term calls, which has been working the last couple of weeks. Then turn around the profits into longer term, Jan, Puts. This rally will lead to a drop and we are really just waiting for a catalyst at this point. Using the 80-20 rule, which in this case is more like a 90-10 rule, the markets will melt up going into the holiday and coming out, so I don't really expect my downside catalyst until next week sometime, but I keep buying a little bit just in case.
I wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate, and if you don't then have a great normal day I guess.Comment -
Took the extra day off yesterday and while I did the markets took a little bit of a dump. Things are not in the free falling camp just yet, and if you look at the SPY and QQQ charts with weekly time frames, they are all showing some degree of a bullish flag. I'll be looking for the SPY to get below $394 and then stay there for hourly candles before I believe the slide. In fact I will be buying short term Calls at that spot for a bounce.
What about the other way? When does that bull flag play out and we get another run? $402, and I actually think this is more probable than not, they never reached the 200 DMA goal but came pretty close, I see that as happening and maybe a gap fill to $409 if they can find some good news. Good news should also happen here as that rail strike is an easy one to turn around, and the Chinese thing will just be removed from the news mysteriously. That will just leave the Fed here in about a week or so to provide the catalyst for a down fall.Comment -
Well nothing happened yesterday so the song remains the same today although for the rest of the week we have a jam packed schedule of reports statements and all of the things that can move markets. I still expect the SPY to rise up to atleast the 200 DMA before a collapse.Comment -
Chairman Jay to the rescue today.Comment -
as Slurry and the CNBC guys on Fast Money would say, Today is a RIP YOUR FACE OFF RALLY
Bazooka Jay surprisingly dovish pivot today.Comment -
MADDer my brother!
i think Santa Claus rallies us until Q4 earnings come out in Jan/Feb/March and we coast downward to a retracement to the Aug lows.
just my gut.
plenty of pain ahead unfortunately.
i am still long term bullish and continuing to average down when it is called for on certain positions.Comment -
Right on cue today when the SPY got to $394, I bought the calls that expire Friday, and after a few hours Powell came out and ignited a rip you a new one rally with a broken half gallon bottle of JD. The rally moved the entire way that I was looking for in just a single day and it just about got to the gap fill around $409 but not quite. There is another break down candle high at around $411. That is a big resistance spot, and then after that there is another spot at around $420 on the SPY which is an even more stout resistance spot.
Because we didn't get to the gap today, I only sold 1/3rd of my calls, and of course picked up some more Puts that expire in Jan with half of the profits. I think some shorts covered here late day as the volume going into the close was heavy and we ended up closing on the high of day.
I still think we fall to the August lows and probably another 30% eventually which will put the SPY at around $250. I've been touting this for about a year now, and I'm sticking with it. I keep buying short term calls that expire on the Friday and taking some profits and placing some in longer term Puts that expire 1/20. At this point the Puts position is starting to get to be a sizable play for me. All that means is that even if it goes to shyt, the short term Call option profit will more than cover the losses, but if and when the bottom drops, Santa will shine on the Pumper family.Comment -
Its gonna be interesting this morning as a full pancake stack of indicators I have are telling me to expect a reversal here soon. Then again the actual price action for all the indices are telling me that the bull flag is in affect. This morning we have the jobs numbers and since bad news is good news and vice versa, if the numbers come in stronger than expected, I can see that reversal starting going into the weekend. If the job numbers come in weak, we have a situation where another rally can happen, and if the job numbers are really bad, we may have a blow your hair back rally up to the $420 spot on the SPY which is where I say the biggest resistance is and probably a ceiling for this rally.Comment -
$GRWG is on fire. Up 135%+ since I bought less than a month ago. Is this all just progress on the mj legalization front?Comment -
Glad all sounds well for you and yours BUD! A healthy and happy holiday season to you. Enjoying grandkids here.
I've taken so much off the table in the last 12 months that right now I'm grabbing the 4-5% short term returns available. As previously disclosed, I'm in the preservation of capital phase of my life so.... With the caveat that every time I open my mouth my foot fills it I've done really well with CLFD, FLNC, and FREY in the last 6 months. As always past gains are no indication of future returns.
But these may be worth taking a look at.
All my best to you and yours!!!Comment -
The upcoming CPI worries me, although another dump may offer a buying opp for me?? Market too volatile to tolerate anything above 7.7% ???Comment -
It's the first mj stock I ever bought. So far so good. But I know it certainly could dump. 2-3 years ago was too early. But I think the legalization momentum now is too strong. Nothing moves fast here, but I think eventually mj will be reclassified and essentially legalized on a federal basis.
Between sports betting and majrijuana, we are trending toward more freedoms, even though people want you to think it's less.Comment -
I was heavy in mj and gaming stocks a couple of years ago, really got in as a part of some of the boom. It started getting mainstream and the mom and pops started getting involved, so obviously there would be downward pressure into that.
A far outlook says get these stocks, especially MJ, I don't think the boom is over, but it's going to be a long pause in general. Nice to see a run for GRWG in this environment. Good call.
I feel like many things we get into now vould just be relatively flat over the next year, and maybe even the next after that.Comment -
I don't think the pause will be too long. I feel like the Biden Admin is going to try to time this to be an election issue in 2024. It's popular overall. They won't want to do it too soon, but either late 2023 or in 2024 I think we'll see a lot of momentum toward normalization. There is even some, probably enough, bipartisan support to get things done too.
What are your other favorite longer-term mj plays?Comment -
To be clear, I don't think the pause is industry specific, I agree with you. But I think the overall economy, next year's inevitable real recession, and similar factors will keep the broader markets down, extending the pause in almost every industry.
That's why it's good to see the run we saw recently. Only other thing I'd add is that this industry, like gaming, took advantage of the news and legislation reversals to create hype and more opportunity to manipulate. I'd watch the positions closely and probably take profit at the first techinical sign of reversal.
Part of me feels that a run in any part of the market is destined to be given back over the next few to many months.
But yes, I agree that the specific industry itself has a lot of positive factors to lead to positive momentum, just not sure it can breakthrough all the other market "resistance(s)" at play.
Even if I feel they wil be flat for a while, it doesn't make it a bad investment, per se.Comment -
I keep adding a little at a time almost every day to my PUTs for SPY, IWM, and especially QQQ. They all expire on Jan 20, and there is a full stack of market indicators that are telling me it is about to reverse.
On a day to day operation however, there is a bull flag formation and the market can certainly push higher and looks as though it wants to. There have been several chances to fall apart but all of these have been ignored. It is a classic formation of the I-beam of bull shyt pattern where the narrative and proximity to the end of the year is holding up the numbers as though a I-beam has been erected for support. For the SPY, the 200 DMA is the level. a close below that number on a daily basis is where I think the slip starts and accelerates. Above that number and the Big Brass Titanic Band will play on.Comment -
It's already been a long pause. Like sports betting, cannabis (which was the buzz at the same time after the SCOTUS sports wagering decision) is saturated and neither sector has done particularly well. Given the state of the economy and the world, these would be things only to slightly diversify. There are much better options out there.Comment -
I'm shorting the Russell in about 10 days or even less. The hype and hope of a bull run is funny to me. Recession was here a long time ago, and depression is coming. International money coming in could keep it level for a while, but the Fed is in it to break it. The dopes are trying to front run that and are going to get demolished.Comment -
Think you guys should get into Nio. I gave this at 1.98. Sold some at 55. It has gotten a haircut. Think it will climb to 25 when China lifts the Covid protocols.Comment
