Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[homie1975]

Mike
VRA now down to 4.58

what do you do?

do you sell now?

or did you sell at the top yesterday?

i am not being a smart ass, i am asking an honest question.

what is your game plan?

[Yulia74]

[milwaukee mike]

Mike
VRA now down to 4.58

what do you do?

do you sell now?

or did you sell at the top yesterday?

i am not being a smart ass, i am asking an honest question.

what is your game plan?

it's worth 8-10 so i'll probably wait until then... got real lucky with some retailers during covid, mik (love the symbol!) from 1 to 23 buyout... home from 1 to 36 buyout... much tougher environment going forward for retail though

i still really dislike the market as a whole, drip drip drip down, still WAY overvalued on the major averages imho... can still find bargains of course, i look at it as a market of stocks instead of a stock market

one example, btu, earnings going way up and trades at forward p/e of 4... while amzn earnings going way down and forward p/e of 60

[milwaukee mike]

christmas is coming soon... mom/grandma looking at brokerage statements, asking kids what to do? i would say sell everything that doesn't have a huge gain (taxes) and take the free 4.8% in 1-year cds

[Madison]

Sucking wind big time here despite offloading a ton earlier in the year. My congrats to Homie for sticking to his convictions. He has stronger convictions than I.

[Madison]

christmas is coming soon... mom/grandma looking at brokerage statements, asking kids what to do? i would say sell everything that doesn't have a huge gain (taxes) and take the free 4.8% in 1-year cds

Getting harder and harder for those of us retired and on fixed income to pass up the guaranteed 4.5% return.

[homie1975]

Sucking wind big time here despite offloading a ton earlier in the year. My congrats to Homie for sticking to his convictions. He has stronger convictions than I.

i stuck to my plan and waited patiently, averaging down certain positions in March, June, and Sept, each time coming within 6 sessions of the bottom on that particular cycle. in March i was within 1 session of the 11 week downtrend !

Sept, well i was a full 6 sessions off.

anyhow, the SPX is still ~10% higher than the intraday 52 week low of ~3500 from OCT so I am standing pat and simply watching and waiting patiently for the next oppty to yet again avg down on certain positions where i am in deep deep RED

[Slurry Pumper]

The slow drip back down is pretty much a great thing for me. All the stuff I got PUTS on; SPY, IWM, QQQ, and SMH are doing the thing I thought they would but I started to take profits here with a few option contracts because the banks (XLF) put in a doji candle today with "correct" timing so while all the indices cut through resistance today, I'll lightened up a little because I get the sense that there may be a rebound back to the lower number of the most recent trading range from the last month or 2. Its a good spot to be in; either the march down continues or I may get another chance to add after a rebound or retest of a resistance levels here by the end of the week. Still looking out for the Christmas rally which I think will be muted at this point but as usual remain the referee calling the game as I see it.

[milwaukee mike]

The slow drip back down is pretty much a great thing for me. All the stuff I got PUTS on; SPY, IWM, QQQ, and SMH are doing the thing I thought they would but I started to take profits here with a few option contracts because the banks (XLF) put in a doji candle today with "correct" timing so while all the indices cut through resistance today, I'll lightened up a little because I get the sense that there may be a rebound back to the lower number of the most recent trading range from the last month or 2. Its a good spot to be in; either the march down continues or I may get another chance to add after a rebound or retest of a resistance levels here by the end of the week. Still looking out for the Christmas rally which I think will be muted at this point but as usual remain the referee calling the game as I see it.

everything christian is in the process of being destroyed by a certain group (churches are now in major financial trouble after being forced to close during covid, traditional family being bashed and laughed at on a daily basis by govt/media, while homosexuality and chopping off kids' genitals is celebrated)

so why would christmas be any different? heck, goldman/chase/etc might announce on christmas eve that crypto is now illegal to own and that goyim can no longer access their bank accounts

[Snowball]

guys no rally. Putin is making a huge speech next week.... stick to precious metals and hard things, maybe steel.

[Slurry Pumper]

Well I'm certainly prepared for it all to go to shyt. Have a little faith. Just kidding I've been anti Christian since Father Garcia didn't give me a second look while I was in CCD class. I've also been on everything coming out of the ground now for a while. I think that starts to pay off this next year.

[milwaukee mike]

Well I'm certainly prepared for it all to go to shyt. Have a little faith. Just kidding I've been anti Christian since Father Garcia didn't give me a second look while I was in CCD class. I've also been on everything coming out of the ground now for a while. I think that starts to pay off this next year.

ha! my old business partner was an altar boy for a child rapist, but he said he must not have been cute enough

oh wait i'm being anti-italian or anti-christianemitic by bashing roman catholic scumbag priests! weird how no other group has ever taken control of the narrative like that

[eidolon]

guys no rally. Putin is making a huge speech next week.... stick to precious metals and hard things, maybe steel.

Viagra?

[milwaukee mike]

Viagra?

they just caught a bunch of guys that stole a viagra truck

all they had to do was look for some hardened criminals

[milwaukee mike]

so many overvalued stocks

with respect to d2bets, why is nvda still 160? should maybe be 50-60... their 2024 estimates are $4 which are the same as 2022... so no growth and it still trades at a p/e of 40, stupid

amzn i touched on, tsla worth maybe 80 and trades at 140... gme worth 2 and trades at 20... disney totally destroyed half of their fan base, estimates way too high, marvel will be played out and their theme parks will be ghost towns to go along with their cruise ships

i can't think of a single dow 30 stock that should be trading higher than it is, definitely the first time in my life i can say that

[Madison]

i stuck to my plan and waited patiently, averaging down certain positions in March, June, and Sept, each time coming within 6 sessions of the bottom on that particular cycle. in March i was within 1 session of the 11 week downtrend !

Sept, well i was a full 6 sessions off.

anyhow, the SPX is still ~10% higher than the intraday 52 week low of ~3500 from OCT so I am standing pat and simply watching and waiting patiently for the next oppty to yet again avg down on certain positions where i am in deep deep RED

Always appreciate your contrary somewhat (to mine) commentary. Always wishing you and yours the best financially and a healthy and happy holiday.

Same wishes to all our valued contributors!!!!

[Madison]

guys no rally. Putin is making a huge speech next week.... stick to precious metals and hard things, maybe steel.

Bought 10K of GLD/SLV 3/4 months ago. Always easier in the rearview but still kicking self I didn't do more. Think late cycle now???

[Slurry Pumper]

Bought 10K of GLD/SLV 3/4 months ago. Always easier in the rearview but still kicking self I didn't do more. Think late cycle now???

GLD and SLV haven't even started yet. I like the miners as well for the fancy metals. I buy more every month and are the only things I buy regularly no matter the cost every month a little at a time. Then every once in a while I convert to the real stuff which I did allot of this year, but from here on in for the next few years I see a bull market in these metals.

[Slurry Pumper]

Expecting a bounce into the end of the week so I unloaded more of those PUTS that expire next month and right before the closing I bought some out of money calls for the SPY. Strike at 389 at .46 termination is Friday. Still have plenty of PUTS left, but there is a tin foil hat event so placing the out of money calls makes it worth it when at the close on Friday we see SPY hanging at 390ish.

[Madison]

GLD and SLV haven't even started yet. I like the miners as well for the fancy metals. I buy more every month and are the only things I buy regularly no matter the cost every month a little at a time. Then every once in a while I convert to the real stuff which I did allot of this year, but from here on in for the next few years I see a bull market in these metals.

Appreciated!

[homie1975]

a little seasonality today but will we have follow through the rest of the week and into post Xmas through Friday 12/30?

crapshoot imo. competing winds and really no way to tell imo

anybody have anything of substance on fundamentals or technicals that outweigh the macro factors ?

[Slurry Pumper]

I just love it when I make the right move. Its a Merry Christmas at the Pumper house hold. I think it has some legs tomorrow and maybe Friday up to $394 in the SPY which would be a giant win for me if it happens. Hell it is already a big win so long as I con't wake up tomorrow morning and the bottom is falling out which could happen, but I that would be in the ugly duck category.

[milwaukee mike]

I just love it when I make the right move. Its a Merry Christmas at the Pumper house hold. I think it has some legs tomorrow and maybe Friday up to $394 in the SPY which would be a giant win for me if it happens. Hell it is already a big win so long as I con't wake up tomorrow morning and the bottom is falling out which could happen, but I that would be in the ugly duck category.

ugh, was looking good before this move, day before options for me too...

[Slurry Pumper]

ugh, was looking good before this move, day before options for me too...

yeah, easy come easy go for those short term calls. Things were looking good and had the look of another leg higher last night. I just got out of those short term calls and made a little lunch money. Still got longer term Puts however, but I think the market also has trouble just falling apart here. I'm looking for the markets to basically go asleep here into the weekend, so for the SPY $380 - $385, QQQ $267 - $270, IWM $173 - 175. Maybe a late day rally into the close today to get back to even if were lucky. Tomorrow is a sleeper day with almost no volume so I'll be taking the day off.

[d2bets]

Market tanking because the economy is strong.

[Madison]

Market tanking because the economy is strong.

I guess the real question is "How really strong is the economy" ??

Does anyone really understand the after effect of the rate hikes and especially in tandem with QT. ???

[Madison]

Any help? Own AJRD circa $48ps. Now circa $55. L3 Harris just acquired at supposedly $58ps. Apparently to close circa 8/23. What's my best case ... hold for 7 months for $ per share of L3 or just take my profit and move on. ???

[milwaukee mike]

Market tanking because the economy is strong.

well the car market is falling off a cliff (kmx/tsla/f), mortgage market falling off a cliff (rkt), media looks like shit (dis/amcx/wbd/para), meme stocks are done, anything crypto-related is going bankrupt

consumer confidence probably near all-time lows, government approval ratings near all-time lows

so to me that's not a healthy strong economy

[guitarjosh]

well the car market is falling off a cliff (kmx/tsla/f), mortgage market falling off a cliff (rkt), media looks like shit (dis/amcx/wbd/para), meme stocks are done, anything crypto-related is going bankrupt

consumer confidence probably near all-time lows, government approval ratings near all-time lows

so to me that's not a healthy strong economy

Don't forget LEIs are falling off a cliff and have been for several months.

[Slurry Pumper]

With all this stuff falling off a cliff, I suggest shorting some of these things. Except the gold and silver stocks / miners. I'm long those and that is quietly making a move north.

[guitarjosh]

With all this stuff falling off a cliff, I suggest shorting some of these things. Except the gold and silver stocks / miners. I'm long those and that is quietly making a move north.

The market is getting so oversold we'll see a bounce. After that we probably tank.

[homie1975]

The market is getting so oversold we'll see a bounce. After that we probably tank.

Josher you need to check in more often.

Good Health to you and yours !

[homie1975]

The market is getting so oversold we'll see a bounce. After that we probably tank.

you know your stuff so not questioning you but we are still significantly above the June and Sept/Oct lows on the SPX so I think the sellers still have more energy until the selloff is complete at least on that index.

on the Nazzy we are at right near the Nov 3 low so i think if there is any bounce it will be in Tech but not on the DOW and SPX heavy stocks.

[guitarjosh]

you know your stuff so not questioning you but we are still significantly above the June and Sept/Oct lows on the SPX so I think the sellers still have more energy until the selloff is complete at least on that index.

on the Nazzy we are at right near the Nov 3 low so i think if there is any bounce it will be in Tech but not on the DOW and SPX heavy stocks.

We have washout on a price momentum basis, we don't have washout readings on a bullish % or % of stocks above their 50 & 200 day MAs. We'll probably get a nice bounce, but it won't have enough to sustain the bounce into a longer term rally.

[milwaukee mike]

With all this stuff falling off a cliff, I suggest shorting some of these things. Except the gold and silver stocks / miners. I'm long those and that is quietly making a move north.

shorting is so dangerous, look at bbby... shorts got squeezed from 3 to 30, now it's back down to 2... so you could be completely right, and forced out at a 1000% loss

buying puts is much safer IMHO, gives you more leverage, more profit potential, and less risk