Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[Slurry Pumper]

So I did step in and buy some PUTS on the QQQs yesterday when it couldn't get above the close from Tuesday.
Today we have the GDP numbers, and I wouldn't be surprised if the rally continues, so I may be selling those puts this morning if the GDP number is anywhere north of 0. I gotta believe that it will be otherwise they will have to admit that 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth is a recession. Still think the Apple is going to disappoint while AMZN will probably hold up. The guidance going forward can't be good but as they say we will see later on today. We still need to get through the day so I'm looking for wild day today as the fun gets going. It could be a day traders type of day.
Either way the big news for me after doing some studying of the last couple of weeks is that the bond market almost took a swan dive while I was gone. I think this will cause the FED to stop with the .75 rate hikes and start to ease up on the steps. Further more the talk will be more dovish as they start to say stuff like were taking slight pause to see the effects. They did the same thing in 2018-19. The nbefore you knew it the rates went back down.

[Slurry Pumper]

I think tech is dead for the next 5 years. I'm not a member of the FB or whatever they got going on there but I believe this whole fake universe thing will take off when we finally get robots to do everything else for us at home including depraved sex acts. That is when the metaverse will take control of our lives. People will be at home banging a robot while simulcasting it over the net to another person who the robot is mimicking the moments of, or maybe even enhancing them. Until then tech is dead and has a long way to fall over the next 18 months before it stabilizes.

I'm sticking with the commodities. I like just about anything that comes out of the ground and is needed for the electrification of all the stuff we need. Lithium miners are holding up this year, copper miners are cheap and will be getting cheaper for the next year, gold has been cheap so I keep buying that every month, silver is in the same boat.
In the end I'm either going to be broke and have all these metals laying around the house worthless, or I'll be sitting on a pile of wealth.

[Slurry Pumper]

Having said all of that, I like META today for a scalp trade if the price gets to $98 bucks in a quick knife falling fashion, I like them again at $94 but this is just a total scalp trade in and out today and probably within an hour. If it drops to 90ish, I get out and lick my wounds.

[Slurry Pumper]

So META got 200 shares at 98 off the bell this morning. Sold half at 101.70, and just unloaded the rest at 100.10. Not bad for an 1.5 hour work day.

[milwaukee mike]

holy smokes amazon

meta round 2

[homie1975]

you guys were right. my BULL colored glasses are fogged up big time.

[d2bets]

you guys were right. my BULL colored glasses are fogged up big time.

Whoa! If you're turning bearish, I'm turning bullish. No offense, homie.

[homie1975]

Whoa! If you're turning bearish, I'm turning bullish. No offense, homie.

always a bull my brother !!

[Slurry Pumper]

Well we get another piece to the puzzle this morning that I think will be more pivotal than usual when it comes to what the FED is going to say next week. If the inflation numbers come in very hot still, I think the fed moves the .75 points and says he still has the foot on the gas. Any moderation in the inflation numbers, and we still get the .75 rate hike, but the language will be softer. Either way going into the future the fed will have to stop with the rate hikes because the payment on the debt is gonna start to make that a reality. 4% is about as much as I thought they could do and if reached, I also thought the world would be falling apart by then. I'm shocked that so far things are still under control somewhat, but the system can't take much more without some serious things starting to break down in a nasty fashion.

[Slurry Pumper]

Who says I don't pick individual stocks, I just did one yesterday. That was so much fun, lets do it again with AMZN this morning. Same deal, I'll be in and out of this quicker than a 15 year old boy banging his girl friend at the homecoming dance. So AMZN this morning in a falling knife fashion, which means not meandering above the price for awhile before hitting it, with the 1st price being $92, and some more at $89. If the price hangs out below $87 on a close of the next 30 minute candle, I'll be out and take my hit. Same amount of cash for this play at around 20K per buy.

[d2bets]

Amazing to see Amazon down 10% and the market up 1%. These individual stories, even with big names, are not killing the market. Pretty surprisingly positive sign actually.

[Slurry Pumper]

Amazing to see Amazon down 10% and the market up 1%. These individual stories, even with big names, are not killing the market. Pretty surprisingly positive sign actually.

I agree these divergences at the end of the week are a sign of things like a rotation and not a dump. I think the fed surprises us to a rally next week. The rally may be sustained for the rest of the year and we may see 4000 on the S&P or a little higher on the fed pause play.

[d2bets]

I agree these divergences at the end of the week are a sign of things like a rotation and not a dump. I think the fed surprises us to a rally next week. The rally may be sustained for the rest of the year and we may see 4000 on the S&P or a little higher on the fed pause play.

That's what I've been thinking.

[milwaukee mike]

Well we get another piece to the puzzle this morning that I think will be more pivotal than usual when it comes to what the FED is going to say next week. If the inflation numbers come in very hot still, I think the fed moves the .75 points and says he still has the foot on the gas. Any moderation in the inflation numbers, and we still get the .75 rate hike, but the language will be softer. Either way going into the future the fed will have to stop with the rate hikes because the payment on the debt is gonna start to make that a reality. 4% is about as much as I thought they could do and if reached, I also thought the world would be falling apart by then. I'm shocked that so far things are still under control somewhat, but the system can't take much more without some serious things starting to break down in a nasty fashion.

i agree with that, just the interest on the US national debt is enough to drive the country into bankruptcy... now throw 7% mortgages on stuff, and so many real estate deals are gonna look pretty awful

how can the average person keep paying over 50% of their income on rent/housing?

[d2bets]

Rip your face of rally today in the face of Amazon warning and 10% plunge.

[dlowilly]

10 yr semi annual pay bond from Federal Farm Cr Bks at 6.44%. State tax exempt. What do you guys think?

[homie1975]

Rip your face of rally today in the face of Amazon warning and 10% plunge.

[d2bets]

S&P up 10.5% the last 2 weeks, Dow even more.

[milwaukee mike]

10 yr semi annual pay bond from Federal Farm Cr Bks at 6.44%. State tax exempt. What do you guys think?

i think i'd rather just buy a 2-yr cd for 4.5%... yes that's additional interest but a little more risk, and out 10 yrs

[homie1975]

S&P up 10.5% the last 2 weeks, Dow even more.

it looked like i'd be wrong when i projected a nice up week, last sunday, but i ended up being right.

who knew.

[milwaukee mike]

it looked like i'd be wrong when i projected a nice up week, last sunday, but i ended up being right.

who knew.

good call homie

even with meta/amzn, pretty amazing really

[dlowilly]

i think i'd rather just buy a 2-yr cd for 4.5%... yes that's additional interest but a little more risk, and out 10 yrs

It's backed by the US gov and about the same risk as treasuries isn't it? I thought they were both backed by the gov.

[milwaukee mike]

It's backed by the US gov and about the same risk as treasuries isn't it? I thought they were both backed by the gov.

yes but a cd is backed by BOTH the company issuing it, and the government

governments do weird stuff, at some point the us govt could claim they're broke and stop paying interest on everything... that's a tiny risk but still a slight additional risk vs a CD where the company (goldman sachs, chase, etc) owes you first, and then fdic is a backup

[dlowilly]

yes but a cd is backed by BOTH the company issuing it, and the government

governments do weird stuff, at some point the us govt could claim they're broke and stop paying interest on everything... that's a tiny risk but still a slight additional risk vs a CD where the company (goldman sachs, chase, etc) owes you first, and then fdic is a backup

Good point

[Madison]

So META got 200 shares at 98 off the bell this morning. Sold half at 101.70, and just unloaded the rest at 100.10. Not bad for an 1.5 hour work day.

What do you experts call similar a "scalp" trade? Well, I'm still trying to learn at my ripe old age ... Bought AMZN on the dip after hours at 89.50. Sold half next day morning circa $103 ish. Wish I was 30/40 again as I would have killed this, but my b@lls keep shrinking with age.

[Madison]

i agree with that, just the interest on the US national debt is enough to drive the country into bankruptcy... now throw 7% mortgages on stuff, and so many real estate deals are gonna look pretty awful

how can the average person keep paying over 50% of their income on rent/housing?

STOP using logic and reality ... you are making way too much sense. The national debt, you mean that actually needs to be paid?? I've been saying for10 years, to deaf ears, regarding the interest burden. Inflation is the only way out.

[Madison]

Rip your face of rally today in the face of Amazon warning and 10% plunge.

I have a diverse portfolio, Lithium etc, but I made squat Friday relative to the overall perc gain.

[Madison]

i think i'd rather just buy a 2-yr cd for 4.5%... yes that's additional interest but a little more risk, and out 10 yrs

The yield curve is agreeing with you. Take the 4ish 1-2 year yield until things are pointing toward easing and grab some a little longer.

[Madison]

It's backed by the US gov and about the same risk as treasuries isn't it? I thought they were both backed by the gov.

Until proven otherwise I keep pecking at the IBond. Let's see what the NOV rate brings.

[Yulia74]

mark zuckerberg has lost $100 billion in just 13 months‼️

[d2bets]

mark zuckerberg has lost $100 billion in just 13 months‼️

Literally means nothing to him.

[milwaukee mike]

i think i'd rather buy more WYNN at 54 (than nio at 10)

quite a few stocks on my list down around 10% today that aren't even china... frey/aan/cvna/crct

in only a week, nio down some more, and WYNN UP 10 POINTS (18%)

[homie1975]

Literally means nothing to him.

on paper yes, but pyschologically, it usually matters a ton to these UBER RICH folk.

[d2bets]

on paper yes, but pyschologically, it usually matters a ton to these UBER RICH folk.

I seriously doubt he cares very much.

[milwaukee mike]

zuckerberg is such a narcissist, he claims that he is giving all his wealth away, but only to places that put his name on things like that hospital where paul pelosi and his gay lover went after getting hammered lol