Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

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  • d2bets
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 08-10-05
    • 39990

    #7806
    3,296 and falling. Haven't seen one of those 5%+ down days since March, but covid now is like March all over again, but worse. Might see 3,230 this afternoon. Funny thing is historical average has Oct. 28 as the single best trading day return of the year.
    Comment
    • chico2663
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 09-02-10
      • 36915

      #7807
      Fukking mitch
      Comment
      • homie1975
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-24-13
        • 15451

        #7808
        we are trading right near we closed on the SPX index on 7/31/2020 which would indicate a toss up:

        Comment
        • RoyBacon
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 09-21-05
          • 37074

          #7809
          Originally posted by RoyBacon
          That's a little low. A while back I thought we could see 3000 but then we ran up to 3500 so we have the SPY at $330 down 6% this week.

          It really depends on the election.

          We know 2 positive bumps are days away; stimulus and a vaccine application. We know there is one negative bump; Dems.

          I'd say 310-315 on the SPY or 3100-3150 on the SnP will hold.

          Wholesale repricing. Dems will add a lot of costs to business. They are simply not worth as much. Not a big deal.

          The only 'big deal' is if dems win and 'burn it down'. Pack courts, riots, jail trump, etc. Then we could see a 60% decline pretty quick.
          Comment
          • RoyBacon
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 09-21-05
            • 37074

            #7810
            Fracking plays, pipelines and crude storage plays getting absolutely mauled on fears of Dems.
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 36890

              #7811
              Originally posted by RoyBacon
              Fracking plays, pipelines and crude storage plays getting absolutely mauled on fears of Dems.
              Roy, what's your opinion on the election? How bad does the economy get if Biden wins? Death knell for USA?
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • RoyBacon
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 09-21-05
                • 37074

                #7812
                Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                Roy, what's your opinion on the election? How bad does the economy get if Biden wins? Death knell for USA?
                Biden no effect.

                But if Dems take the senate then stocks have to be repriced down 15% which we are in the middle of.

                If Dems set forth to destroy the country with court packing, adding states, arresting Trump & riots we will definitely see a total collapse. Over 50%.

                I personally think if dems win they will look to '22 and we will not see them try to destroy the country.
                Comment
                • Madison
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-16-11
                  • 6417

                  #7813
                  Originally posted by allabout the $$$
                  i own in florida, just bought in the poconos, mom just bought in arizona. have friends in real estate who have been telling me 40% of homes being sold now are sight unseen and a bidding war.

                  i saw a nice place about a month ago was listed for 4 hours and had 10 bids on it.
                  Disclosure ... I'm a realtor. Not sure the exact quote but "when it looks to good". Mark my words , this going to hurt many. People are WAY over paying and mortgaging. Thanks to lower interest but when supply increases , look out below.
                  Comment
                  • Slurry Pumper
                    SBR MVP
                    • 06-18-18
                    • 2811

                    #7814
                    Originally posted by Madison
                    Disclosure ... I'm a realtor. Not sure the exact quote but "when it looks to good". Mark my words , this going to hurt many. People are WAY over paying and mortgaging. Thanks to lower interest but when supply increases , look out below.
                    I agree the housing boom is gonna be short lived. Then things will die off and the housing will fall off a cliff. I think cheaper prices are a year away.
                    Comment
                    • Madison
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 09-16-11
                      • 6417

                      #7815
                      Originally posted by d2bets
                      And why wasn't it priced in a month ago when Bidens odds of winning were heven higher?
                      Trump stuck a knife in his hopes when he said, "I'll get your husbands back to work". He just eliminated whatever female vote he may have had.
                      Comment
                      • allabout the $$$
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-17-10
                        • 9837

                        #7816
                        Originally posted by Madison
                        Disclosure ... I'm a realtor. Not sure the exact quote but "when it looks to good". Mark my words , this going to hurt many. People are WAY over paying and mortgaging. Thanks to lower interest but when supply increases , look out below.

                        obviously it depends on where your looking to buy. the supply in the poconos is down 50% at this same time last year because of all of the housing sales occurring. where as you go to manhattan right now you are going to get a bargain compared to 18 months ago.

                        are people over paying yes, its actually crazy that a house was listed for 4 hours and had 10 bids on it. im going to assume it went for at least 30k over asking.

                        i do think your right it can/ will hurt some people but when your buying for the most part between 175 - 300k you might take a loss but your not going to get the crash of 2009 again
                        Comment
                        • allabout the $$$
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-17-10
                          • 9837

                          #7817
                          especially in an area like the poconos its a year round vacation spot. can air bnb or month to month rental there
                          Comment
                          • d2bets
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 08-10-05
                            • 39990

                            #7818
                            Originally posted by Madison
                            Trump stuck a knife in his hopes when he said, "I'll get your husbands back to work". He just eliminated whatever female vote he may have had.
                            That's the breaking point for women? I dunno. Is anybody truly undecided? It's all about turnout.
                            Comment
                            • INVEGA MAN
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-30-08
                              • 6793

                              #7819
                              DOW JONES DOWN OVER 900 POINTS. MY 401K TAKING A penetrating BEATING
                              Comment
                              • chico2663
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 09-02-10
                                • 36915

                                #7820
                                Originally posted by RoyBacon
                                Biden no effect.

                                But if Dems take the senate then stocks have to be repriced down 15% which we are in the middle of.

                                If Dems set forth to destroy the country with court packing, adding states, arresting Trump & riots we will definitely see a total collapse. Over 50%.

                                I personally think if dems win they will look to '22 and we will not see them try to destroy the country.
                                You are such a freaking moron. Stock market gains under dem pres is 11.2 % as opposed to 6% under repub. Also first yr of dem pres it goes up 16.2%. Now you may call it bull shit but you can google it.
                                Comment
                                • chico2663
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 09-02-10
                                  • 36915

                                  #7821
                                  Originally posted by INVEGA MAN
                                  DOW JONES DOWN OVER 900 POINTS. MY 401K TAKING A penetrating BEATING
                                  Thank Mitch. If they would of gave out stimulus.
                                  Comment
                                  • Madison
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-16-11
                                    • 6417

                                    #7822
                                    Originally posted by d2bets
                                    That's the breaking point for women? I dunno. Is anybody truly undecided? It's all about turnout.
                                    Mom staying at home and taking care of home and kids is LONG gone. Most households are dual income if not the woman being the primary breadwinner. This will not set well with working women.

                                    Much as I may agree or disagree Biden is our next president and likely Kamala once they institutionalize him for dementia.
                                    Comment
                                    • Madison
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-16-11
                                      • 6417

                                      #7823
                                      Originally posted by Slurry Pumper
                                      I agree the housing boom is gonna be short lived. Then things will die off and the housing will fall off a cliff. I think cheaper prices are a year away.
                                      Not sure , with stimulus/mortgage forbearance on the timeline, but you can bank it's coming.
                                      Comment
                                      • ex50warrior
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 10-10-09
                                        • 3819

                                        #7824
                                        I don't trade like many of you guys. And I know I'm breaking all the technician's rules but I couldn't resist the urge to buy (gold and tech). Only put 30% of available funds in play in case the market falls further.
                                        Good luck to all.
                                        Comment
                                        • RoyBacon
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 09-21-05
                                          • 37074

                                          #7825
                                          Originally posted by chico2663
                                          You are such a freaking moron. Stock market gains under dem pres is 11.2 % as opposed to 6% under repub. Also first yr of dem pres it goes up 16.2%. Now you may call it bull shit but you can google it.
                                          That's like saying the 6 comes up first in the lotto most of the time.

                                          It's meaningless.

                                          You would have to break it down by who controls congress. Obama had a good last 6 years because real Americans controlled both houses and he never passed anything during that time not even a budget.
                                          Comment
                                          • antifoil
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-11-09
                                            • 3993

                                            #7826
                                            biden and pelosi are big business democrats. they aren't going to do anything that harms the oil and gas industry. they will stop legislation that is too radical. I am comfortable with them being in charge.

                                            the worst thing they will do is raise the capital gains tax and marginal tax rate for the 1-5%, which is fine, and to be fair the capital gains tax is the biggest slap in the face to middle americans. the capital gains tax will suck, but it does incentivize to take profits before a year is up which could create a more active trading market.
                                            Comment
                                            • d2bets
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 08-10-05
                                              • 39990

                                              #7827
                                              Originally posted by antifoil
                                              biden and pelosi are big business democrats. they aren't going to do anything that harms the oil and gas industry. they will stop legislation that is too radical. I am comfortable with them being in charge.

                                              the worst thing they will do is raise the capital gains tax and marginal tax rate for the 1-5%, which is fine, and to be fair the capital gains tax is the biggest slap in the face to middle americans. the capital gains tax will suck, but it does incentivize to take profits before a year is up which could create a more active trading market.
                                              People are going to rush to prematurely sell all their gains to pay 15% tax this year rather than pay 20% tax at some year in the future? Largely, I don't think so.
                                              Comment
                                              • pavyracer
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 04-12-07
                                                • 82517

                                                #7828
                                                This is all GOP Senate fault. Adjourning without passing a bill the stockmarket needs to stay afloat.
                                                Comment
                                                • RoyBacon
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 09-21-05
                                                  • 37074

                                                  #7829
                                                  Originally posted by pavyracer
                                                  This is all GOP Senate fault. Adjourning without passing a bill the stockmarket needs to stay afloat.
                                                  Actually every Dem senator voted AGAINST corona virus aid, twice. Google it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • antifoil
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-11-09
                                                    • 3993

                                                    #7830
                                                    no, i mean if you hold for less than a year, you are taxed at your marginal tax rate. anecdotally, i am long amazon, NOW, and a few others that i bought after the market crash that i would have sold and taken some profits, after they have gone up 30% but it being less than a year, i am holding them because i want the better tax rate.

                                                    i have been using my IRA for all of my option trading because the premium i get for sell the options aren't taxable this year.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • d2bets
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 08-10-05
                                                      • 39990

                                                      #7831
                                                      Originally posted by antifoil
                                                      no, i mean if you hold for less than a year, you are taxed at your marginal tax rate. anecdotally, i am long amazon, NOW, and a few others that i bought after the market crash that i would have sold and taken some profits, after they have gone up 30% but it being less than a year, i am holding them because i want the better tax rate.

                                                      i have been using my IRA for all of my option trading because the premium i get for sell the options aren't taxable this year.
                                                      OK, so top income earner will sell this year to pay 37% instead of next year at 39.6%? Just don't see that as a driving factor in many cases.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • pavyracer
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 04-12-07
                                                        • 82517

                                                        #7832
                                                        Originally posted by RoyBacon
                                                        Actually every Dem senator voted AGAINST corona virus aid, twice. Google it.
                                                        The Senate Bill offered $500 million. Trump and Pelosi wanted $1.8 trillion. Why would Democrats in Senate pass a bill than neither the House or Trump wanted?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • antifoil
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 11-11-09
                                                          • 3993

                                                          #7833
                                                          if there is no 15% tax rate for capital gains, then it reduces the incentive to hold for longer than a year.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Slurry Pumper
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-18-18
                                                            • 2811

                                                            #7834
                                                            Originally posted by ex50warrior
                                                            I don't trade like many of you guys. And I know I'm breaking all the technician's rules but I couldn't resist the urge to buy (gold and tech). Only put 30% of available funds in play in case the market falls further.
                                                            Good luck to all.
                                                            Not knowing the amount of time you plan on keeping these stock plays but why let that stop me. The gold will bounce back as in March when the selloff happened, Gold was a leading sector back up. Then again I don't see any inflation on the horizon so Gold may be down to the $1800 level for a while before kicking in.

                                                            Tech on the other hand is under pressure for a while and there has been some rotation out of that sector. Of course if your looking at 5+ years, I don't think it matters much, but you will probably find more opportunity to come in tech for a while.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Slurry Pumper
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-18-18
                                                              • 2811

                                                              #7835
                                                              As a technical player I don't think any of this news is the cause of anything. They are just the catalyst. I could see a pullback coming, and said so a few weeks ago. Well I believe that the Snowballer posted it first, and I immediately agreed with him/her. You can see it in the charts that a pullback was on the way. The SPY is at a level now that may hold. Of course I thought that at 339.30, and now it is at 326.66 which ha some technical reasons to be supportive in this area. It may hold, and then again it may drop down some more, it is hard to tell. At this point I think it is going down further than the pullback in September, maybe on its way to 300. That happens to be the level Snowball speculated about and I couldn't disagree with him / her, but thought that it was unlikely at the time the market dipped that low.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RoyBacon
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 09-21-05
                                                                • 37074

                                                                #7836
                                                                Originally posted by pavyracer
                                                                The Senate Bill offered $500 million. Trump and Pelosi wanted $1.8 trillion. Why would Democrats in Senate pass a bill than neither the House or Trump wanted?
                                                                So $0 is better than a half a trillion dollars??? fugging tards....
                                                                Comment
                                                                • pavyracer
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 04-12-07
                                                                  • 82517

                                                                  #7837
                                                                  ...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pavyracer
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 04-12-07
                                                                    • 82517

                                                                    #7838
                                                                    Originally posted by RoyBacon
                                                                    So $0 is better than a half a trillion dollars??? fugging tards....
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    Trump wouldn't have signed a $500 billion bill. He wanted more. The bill has to be passed by both house and senate and have the blessing of the president. 2 out of 3 were against the $500 billion bill.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • chico2663
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 09-02-10
                                                                      • 36915

                                                                      #7839
                                                                      Originally posted by pavyracer
                                                                      <br>
                                                                      Trump wouldn't have signed a $500 billion bill. He wanted more. The bill has to be passed by both house and senate and have the blessing of the president. 2 out of 3 were against the $500 billion bill.
                                                                      Dude don’t argue with Roy. His parents are brother and sister.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • RoyBacon
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 09-21-05
                                                                        • 37074

                                                                        #7840
                                                                        Originally posted by pavyracer
                                                                        <br>
                                                                        Trump wouldn't have signed a $500 billion bill. He wanted more. The bill has to be passed by both house and senate and have the blessing of the president. 2 out of 3 were against the $500 billion bill.
                                                                        Well then why didn't tards vote for it and put him on the spot Einstein?

                                                                        Hopefully, you're smarter than that.

                                                                        Tards completely lost the opportunity to provide relief because they were terrified Trump might get a little credit. Dems care about power, fvvk the American people. That half a trillion would have gone a lonnnnng way.
                                                                        Comment
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