Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[d2bets]

3,296 and falling. Haven't seen one of those 5%+ down days since March, but covid now is like March all over again, but worse. Might see 3,230 this afternoon. Funny thing is historical average has Oct. 28 as the single best trading day return of the year.

[chico2663]

Fukking mitch

[homie1975]

we are trading right near we closed on the SPX index on 7/31/2020 which would indicate a toss up:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-correctly-predicted-next-president-biden-donald-trump-election-2020-6-1029351214#

[RoyBacon]

That's a little low. A while back I thought we could see 3000 but then we ran up to 3500 so we have the SPY at $330 down 6% this week.

It really depends on the election.

We know 2 positive bumps are days away; stimulus and a vaccine application. We know there is one negative bump; Dems.

I'd say 310-315 on the SPY or 3100-3150 on the SnP will hold.

Wholesale repricing. Dems will add a lot of costs to business. They are simply not worth as much. Not a big deal.

The only 'big deal' is if dems win and 'burn it down'. Pack courts, riots, jail trump, etc. Then we could see a 60% decline pretty quick.

[RoyBacon]

Fracking plays, pipelines and crude storage plays getting absolutely mauled on fears of Dems.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Fracking plays, pipelines and crude storage plays getting absolutely mauled on fears of Dems.

Roy, what's your opinion on the election? How bad does the economy get if Biden wins? Death knell for USA?

[RoyBacon]

Roy, what's your opinion on the election? How bad does the economy get if Biden wins? Death knell for USA?

Biden no effect.

But if Dems take the senate then stocks have to be repriced down 15% which we are in the middle of.

If Dems set forth to destroy the country with court packing, adding states, arresting Trump & riots we will definitely see a total collapse. Over 50%.

I personally think if dems win they will look to '22 and we will not see them try to destroy the country.

[Madison]

i own in florida, just bought in the poconos, mom just bought in arizona. have friends in real estate who have been telling me 40% of homes being sold now are sight unseen and a bidding war.

i saw a nice place about a month ago was listed for 4 hours and had 10 bids on it.

Disclosure ... I'm a realtor. Not sure the exact quote but "when it looks to good". Mark my words , this going to hurt many. People are WAY over paying and mortgaging. Thanks to lower interest but when supply increases , look out below.

[Slurry Pumper]

Disclosure ... I'm a realtor. Not sure the exact quote but "when it looks to good". Mark my words , this going to hurt many. People are WAY over paying and mortgaging. Thanks to lower interest but when supply increases , look out below.

I agree the housing boom is gonna be short lived. Then things will die off and the housing will fall off a cliff. I think cheaper prices are a year away.

[Madison]

And why wasn't it priced in a month ago when Bidens odds of winning were heven higher?

Trump stuck a knife in his hopes when he said, "I'll get your husbands back to work". He just eliminated whatever female vote he may have had.

[allabout the $$$]

Disclosure ... I'm a realtor. Not sure the exact quote but "when it looks to good". Mark my words , this going to hurt many. People are WAY over paying and mortgaging. Thanks to lower interest but when supply increases , look out below.

obviously it depends on where your looking to buy. the supply in the poconos is down 50% at this same time last year because of all of the housing sales occurring. where as you go to manhattan right now you are going to get a bargain compared to 18 months ago.

are people over paying yes, its actually crazy that a house was listed for 4 hours and had 10 bids on it. im going to assume it went for at least 30k over asking.

i do think your right it can/ will hurt some people but when your buying for the most part between 175 - 300k you might take a loss but your not going to get the crash of 2009 again

[allabout the $$$]

especially in an area like the poconos its a year round vacation spot. can air bnb or month to month rental there

[d2bets]

Trump stuck a knife in his hopes when he said, "I'll get your husbands back to work". He just eliminated whatever female vote he may have had.

That's the breaking point for women? I dunno. Is anybody truly undecided? It's all about turnout.

[INVEGA MAN]

DOW JONES DOWN OVER 900 POINTS. MY 401K TAKING A penetrating BEATING

[chico2663]

Biden no effect.

But if Dems take the senate then stocks have to be repriced down 15% which we are in the middle of.

If Dems set forth to destroy the country with court packing, adding states, arresting Trump & riots we will definitely see a total collapse. Over 50%.

I personally think if dems win they will look to '22 and we will not see them try to destroy the country.

You are such a freaking moron. Stock market gains under dem pres is 11.2 % as opposed to 6% under repub. Also first yr of dem pres it goes up 16.2%. Now you may call it bull shit but you can google it.

[chico2663]

DOW JONES DOWN OVER 900 POINTS. MY 401K TAKING A penetrating BEATING

Thank Mitch. If they would of gave out stimulus.

[Madison]

That's the breaking point for women? I dunno. Is anybody truly undecided? It's all about turnout.

Mom staying at home and taking care of home and kids is LONG gone. Most households are dual income if not the woman being the primary breadwinner. This will not set well with working women.

Much as I may agree or disagree Biden is our next president and likely Kamala once they institutionalize him for dementia.

[Madison]

I agree the housing boom is gonna be short lived. Then things will die off and the housing will fall off a cliff. I think cheaper prices are a year away.

Not sure , with stimulus/mortgage forbearance on the timeline, but you can bank it's coming.

[ex50warrior]

I don't trade like many of you guys. And I know I'm breaking all the technician's rules but I couldn't resist the urge to buy (gold and tech). Only put 30% of available funds in play in case the market falls further.
Good luck to all.

[RoyBacon]

You are such a freaking moron. Stock market gains under dem pres is 11.2 % as opposed to 6% under repub. Also first yr of dem pres it goes up 16.2%. Now you may call it bull shit but you can google it.

That's like saying the 6 comes up first in the lotto most of the time.

It's meaningless.

You would have to break it down by who controls congress. Obama had a good last 6 years because real Americans controlled both houses and he never passed anything during that time not even a budget.

[antifoil]

biden and pelosi are big business democrats. they aren't going to do anything that harms the oil and gas industry. they will stop legislation that is too radical. I am comfortable with them being in charge.

the worst thing they will do is raise the capital gains tax and marginal tax rate for the 1-5%, which is fine, and to be fair the capital gains tax is the biggest slap in the face to middle americans. the capital gains tax will suck, but it does incentivize to take profits before a year is up which could create a more active trading market.

[d2bets]

biden and pelosi are big business democrats. they aren't going to do anything that harms the oil and gas industry. they will stop legislation that is too radical. I am comfortable with them being in charge.

the worst thing they will do is raise the capital gains tax and marginal tax rate for the 1-5%, which is fine, and to be fair the capital gains tax is the biggest slap in the face to middle americans. the capital gains tax will suck, but it does incentivize to take profits before a year is up which could create a more active trading market.

People are going to rush to prematurely sell all their gains to pay 15% tax this year rather than pay 20% tax at some year in the future? Largely, I don't think so.

[pavyracer]

This is all GOP Senate fault. Adjourning without passing a bill the stockmarket needs to stay afloat.

[RoyBacon]

This is all GOP Senate fault. Adjourning without passing a bill the stockmarket needs to stay afloat.

Actually every Dem senator voted AGAINST corona virus aid, twice. Google it.

[antifoil]

no, i mean if you hold for less than a year, you are taxed at your marginal tax rate. anecdotally, i am long amazon, NOW, and a few others that i bought after the market crash that i would have sold and taken some profits, after they have gone up 30% but it being less than a year, i am holding them because i want the better tax rate.

i have been using my IRA for all of my option trading because the premium i get for sell the options aren't taxable this year.

[d2bets]

no, i mean if you hold for less than a year, you are taxed at your marginal tax rate. anecdotally, i am long amazon, NOW, and a few others that i bought after the market crash that i would have sold and taken some profits, after they have gone up 30% but it being less than a year, i am holding them because i want the better tax rate.

i have been using my IRA for all of my option trading because the premium i get for sell the options aren't taxable this year.

OK, so top income earner will sell this year to pay 37% instead of next year at 39.6%? Just don't see that as a driving factor in many cases.

[pavyracer]

Actually every Dem senator voted AGAINST corona virus aid, twice. Google it.

The Senate Bill offered $500 million. Trump and Pelosi wanted $1.8 trillion. Why would Democrats in Senate pass a bill than neither the House or Trump wanted?

[antifoil]

if there is no 15% tax rate for capital gains, then it reduces the incentive to hold for longer than a year.

[Slurry Pumper]

I don't trade like many of you guys. And I know I'm breaking all the technician's rules but I couldn't resist the urge to buy (gold and tech). Only put 30% of available funds in play in case the market falls further.
Good luck to all.

Not knowing the amount of time you plan on keeping these stock plays but why let that stop me. The gold will bounce back as in March when the selloff happened, Gold was a leading sector back up. Then again I don't see any inflation on the horizon so Gold may be down to the $1800 level for a while before kicking in.

Tech on the other hand is under pressure for a while and there has been some rotation out of that sector. Of course if your looking at 5+ years, I don't think it matters much, but you will probably find more opportunity to come in tech for a while.

[Slurry Pumper]

As a technical player I don't think any of this news is the cause of anything. They are just the catalyst. I could see a pullback coming, and said so a few weeks ago. Well I believe that the Snowballer posted it first, and I immediately agreed with him/her. You can see it in the charts that a pullback was on the way. The SPY is at a level now that may hold. Of course I thought that at 339.30, and now it is at 326.66 which ha some technical reasons to be supportive in this area. It may hold, and then again it may drop down some more, it is hard to tell. At this point I think it is going down further than the pullback in September, maybe on its way to 300. That happens to be the level Snowball speculated about and I couldn't disagree with him / her, but thought that it was unlikely at the time the market dipped that low.

[RoyBacon]

The Senate Bill offered $500 million. Trump and Pelosi wanted $1.8 trillion. Why would Democrats in Senate pass a bill than neither the House or Trump wanted?

So $0 is better than a half a trillion dollars??? fugging tards....

[pavyracer]

...

[pavyracer]

So $0 is better than a half a trillion dollars??? fugging tards....

<br>
Trump wouldn't have signed a $500 billion bill. He wanted more. The bill has to be passed by both house and senate and have the blessing of the president. 2 out of 3 were against the $500 billion bill.

[chico2663]

<br>
Trump wouldn't have signed a $500 billion bill. He wanted more. The bill has to be passed by both house and senate and have the blessing of the president. 2 out of 3 were against the $500 billion bill.

Dude don’t argue with Roy. His parents are brother and sister.

[RoyBacon]

<br>
Trump wouldn't have signed a $500 billion bill. He wanted more. The bill has to be passed by both house and senate and have the blessing of the president. 2 out of 3 were against the $500 billion bill.

Well then why didn't tards vote for it and put him on the spot Einstein?

Hopefully, you're smarter than that.

Tards completely lost the opportunity to provide relief because they were terrified Trump might get a little credit. Dems care about power, fvvk the American people. That half a trillion would have gone a lonnnnng way.