Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

[RoyBacon]

even the most ardent DEMS would have to admit that we've experienced a "Trump Bump" since just a day or two after election day 2016 that had trajectory and strength at a different level than the one under Obama from March 2009 through Nov 2016. that said, i would hope the most ardent REPUBS would or could acknowledge that while the trajectory may not be as steep going forward under a Joe regime for at least 4 years, we might enjoy *some* decent growth and it will not be a total loss. i was feeling very concerned until i learned what the Goldman Sachs folks were thinking and apparently their opinion is shared by others on Wall Street who just want to say it so they can appear to be nonpartisan.

let's see what happens. either way on 11/3 and into 11/4 and maybe longer, we will likely see some serious volatility or as i like to call it: BUYING OPPORTUNITY !!!

One thing dems conveniently leave out is the historic beating obama took in 2010 that put REPUBLICANS in control of law making and budgets. Dems lost super majorities and lost both the House and senate. Obama became a figure head and never passed a another piece of tard legislation.

Did obama even pass a budget his last 6 years? I seem to remember he did not.

[Shafted69]

The market was in the tank when Obama took over in Jan 2009 and it hit the low in march 2009 so there was really nowhere to go but up. If course from that March 2009 low, the longest bull marjetvin history was born and obama did not seem to get in its way for 8Y.

The market Joe would inherit is in nowhere the shitty state that Obama inherited. In my nonpartisan opinion it's difficult to imagine the market getting juiced beginning 11/4/2020 the way it did beginning 11/4/2016 after Donnie won.

Drumpf was handed an economy that was good health. Wall st. will raise their growth forecasts after a Biden win. Blue wave means bigger stimulus.

[homie1975]

Drumpf was handed an economy that was good health. Wall st. will raise their growth forecasts after a Biden win. Blue wave means bigger stimulus.

Yes that was what Goldman Sachs said last week and my hunch is that many other Wall Street insiders feel the same way but are not saying it publicly as they wish to appear Nonpartisan.

It appears the market can do well under both candidates which is just fine by me LOL

[d2bets]

Yes that was what Goldman Sachs said last week and my hunch is that many other Wall Street insiders feel the same way but are not saying it publicly as they wish to appear Nonpartisan.

It appears the market can do well under both candidates which is just fine by me LOL

It can, but will it? Not saying a lot, but it could go either way. I don't think it's so certain.

[Snowball]

bullish trade new on Chevron going into Thursday's GDP report.

Occidental and Apache also attractive.

[Madison]

$39.69 now. What kind of short-term bottom might we see? It's already fallen pretty hard this month. $30 or so looks like low since mid-May. Hard to imagine falling beyond that without serious problems. FWIW I play there and they do have website issues more often than they should. I guess I just wonder whether they have enough edge on the multitude of competitors that are forthcoming.

I hold a small position. (All relative right?). Personally I would start establishing a larger position circa 35 or under.

[Madison]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/gold...blue-wave.html

Full disclosure, I did not sign in and read. Just curious what the possible profit taking may do to EOY market.

[Madison]

If they are gonna sell you shares of winners you fukin take, it’s not a matter of if, but when and how many times stimulus is coming, trying to guess the day these politician fuks will walk out holding hands is useless.

Just add where you are underweight, it’s really easy right now....but if you can’t take volatility go to bed with your money every night.

The same ppl trying to time the market lost out on the rally last time and still think Jc penny and hertz have value. They don’t understand the times because they are so focused on the past predicting the future.

The world has changed...just look around and ask your self what ppl want right now and you’ll figure out the right thing to be in, and most of all don’t piss your pants every time Gap downs occur...

I’m just saying covid cases are rising and technology is vastly improved, we saw this movie play out in March-August. what happened then and will it happen again....the companies who were innovative and allowed ppl to live and prosper from a distance were beloved by the market....AMZN, CRWD, ROKU, DOCU, ZM, SE just to name a few....do we think these same names will get extended or are there bigger gains in other names who lagged behind or less appreciated...well, we are already starting to see PINS, SNAP get more love....or who made innovations to get through the second wave....Walmart, Disney just to name some....so...keep looking for these names...

I love Agora;API, I love Rocket RKT, Opendoor IPOB, lemonade LMND, Upwork UPWK, LQDT, BIGC. I don’t think the value of these companies at this moment in time has come but will and possibly during the 2nd wave here..other notables I am adding to with more room to run are PayPal, CRWD, SQ, AMWL. I am still even adding to the proven winners aforementioned.

As for vaccine...I can tell you Pfizer is getting their stuff together quicker than anyone in the US, I haven’t seen any data on the CanSino China vaccine phase 3 yet but many countries already in line to buy...since we have a retarded president more focused on getting his klan to the ballot box than saving lives we’ll just insult the globe until they tell us to fuk off and die.

I am still in the camp of it’s gonna take an extraordinary vaccine to accomplish immunity to a rapidly changing virus and moderna is the most likely to allow the best immunogenic response...I’ve already seen 2 reinfected patients who had covid in mar-May but fortunately both had much milder symptoms so I think as time goes by this will be similar to our seasonal flu.

stay safe guys...and try to avoid large thanksgiving gatherings...I just intubated a 60y/o guy and who knows if he’ll make it...but one thing I can’t stand is ignorance...don’t know how many families I speak to and say “he/she thought it was a hoax” it’s usually the retards getting sick now so maybe at this point just evolution but many try their best and don’t ask for it and not fair to inflict things on ppl just for your own personal idea the earth is flat.

I bought more agora, doyu and added Hexo (weed stock) today

I'm not smart enough to know who the winners are. I've just been playing it safe and going XBI.

[Madison]

S&P 500 rose 300% and Dow Jones rose 150% under Obama/Biden. Biden will take the Dow to 60K at least and S&P 500 to 10,000.

How could it not? Zero interest, huge liquidity, kind of similar to were are here. Where do we put our money except equities.

Pray for the elder's who used to depend on CD's for meager circa 5% gains to afford groceries.

[chico2663]

Yes that was what Goldman Sachs said last week and my hunch is that many other Wall Street insiders feel the same way but are not saying it publicly as they wish to appear Nonpartisan.

It appears the market can do well under both candidates which is just fine by me LOL

It will only go higher if the fed buys that1.7 trillion toxic company debt.

[chico2663]

Bought some tree and babba

[Madison]

Swks

I got stopped out at circa 148. Any opinions on what's going here?

[Lineman]

As good as it gets!!!
Bread AND butter!
Let's see if we can kick it from here!

[RoyBacon]

Super easy money maker
Buy TWTR at $51.27
Sell $48 Oct 30 Call at $4.70

Lock in a sell at $52.70 so long as the stock stays above $48 by Friday.

[d2bets]

Super easy money maker
Buy TWTR at $51.27
Sell $48 Oct 30 Call at $4.70

Lock in a sell at $52.70 so long as the stock stays above $48 by Friday.

They report on Thursday, so it is certainly possible it moves way up or way down. My guess would be up, but I've seen it fall on earnings before.

[d2bets]

Can't tell why, but it looks like post-close futures are dropping. I looked at earnings and most seem up, so I'm not sure what's moving.

[trobin31]

Bought some tree and babba

What’s the deal with tree? I bought small amount of Qudian;QD @1.25 last month which is a Chinese version, but I am not really hip to the online credit lending game yet. Was looking for emerging market version to get in early but haven’t really digged deep

[chico2663]

Super easy money maker
Buy TWTR at $51.27
Sell $48 Oct 30 Call at $4.70

Lock in a sell at $52.70 so long as the stock stays above $48 by Friday.

got 100 shares in retirement fund atb29. been holding for sometime. it has been at 17 for the longest.

[chico2663]

What’s the deal with tree? I bought small amount of Qudian;QD @1.25 last month which is a Chinese version, but I am not really hip to the online credit lending game yet. Was looking for emerging market version to get in early but haven’t really digged deep

they just had that lawsuit dropped. 85 % owned by institutions. If and when housing takes off they are major player. just wanted to diversify. had too much invested in ev's. I bought this and etsy to go in different direction.

[allabout the $$$]

they just had that lawsuit dropped. 85 % owned by institutions. If and when housing takes off they are major player. just wanted to diversify. had too much invested in ev's. I bought this and etsy to go in different direction.

dont know where you live but housing is booming.

[allabout the $$$]

i own in florida, just bought in the poconos, mom just bought in arizona. have friends in real estate who have been telling me 40% of homes being sold now are sight unseen and a bidding war.

i saw a nice place about a month ago was listed for 4 hours and had 10 bids on it.

[trobin31]

i own in florida, just bought in the poconos, mom just bought in arizona. have friends in real estate who have been telling me 40% of homes being sold now are sight unseen and a bidding war.

i saw a nice place about a month ago was listed for 4 hours and had 10 bids on it.

I’m in Rocket and Opendoor pretty big right now based on the premise let alone it’s a great secular trend...great prices on these right know.

[chico2663]

just sold rocket for profit. needed money for etsy

[chico2663]

dont know where you live but housing is booming.

i heard it was booming, just think that they will go up when shit settles down on covid.

[antifoil]

If you back test Wall Street growth the past 30 years, democratic presidents have had significant more growth than Republicans. Republicans get into bad wars and harm the economy.


To whoever wanted to buy oxy. Fguck that. They have so much debt from that anadarko deal that I question if they can get out of. I don’t see how they can survive 40.00 a barrel into next year. If they can’t drill all of those leases they bought and the leases expire, it is lost money.

[RoyBacon]

Boys we are pricing in a Dem victory. I estimated 15% so about 3k-4k dow points. After today we will be about half way through the repricing.

[d2bets]

Boys we are pricing in a Dem victory. I estimated 15% so about 3k-4k dow points. After today we will be about half way through the repricing.

And why wasn't it priced in a month ago when Bidens odds of winning were heven higher?

[RoyBacon]

And why wasn't it priced in a month ago when Bidens odds of winning were heven higher?

Because only this week has it become apparent the senate will flip.

There would be no repricing, no corp tax increase if republicans were to hold the senate.

[ex50warrior]

Gold is joining the freefall this morning.

[d2bets]

Because only this week has it become apparent the senate will flip.

There would be no repricing, no corp tax increase if republicans were to hold the senate.

Really? Dem clean sweep right yes now is 50/50 on Predictit. Yes was 55 cents last week. Nah man, that ain't it. It's a combination of 100% dead stimulus, covid running wild everywhere, and crazier than ever Trump who will do who knows what in reaction to the election.

[RoyBacon]

Really? Dem clean sweep right yes now is 50/50 on Predictit. Yes was 55 cents last week. Nah man, that ain't it. It's a combination of 100% dead stimulus, covid running wild everywhere, and crazier than ever Trump who will do who knows what in reaction to the election.

Nope. Stimulus will be done in the lame duck. Everyone knows that. We are 15 days or less from the first vaccine application.

You better hope this is part of the repricing. It's obvious it is. I have been saying that since Fri. Mon bought $75k in Puts and I'll start selling today.

IF, a big IF, but if the repubs DO hold the senate we will have a 1500 point up day on Wednesday.

[d2bets]

Nope. Stimulus will be done in the lame duck. Everyone knows that. We are 15 days or less from the first vaccine application.

You better hope this is part of the repricing. It's obvious it is. I have been saying that since Fri. Mon bought $75k in Puts and I'll start selling today.

IF, a big IF, but if the repubs DO hold the senate we will have a 1500 point up day on Wednesday.

I doubt it. Especially if Republicans lose WH but hold Senate. Mitch will say screw you, no deal. But in case Trump will completely lose interest and may refuse to sign anything.

[RoyBacon]

I doubt it. Especially if Republicans lose WH but hold Senate. Mitch will say screw you, no deal. But in case Trump will completely lose interest and may refuse to sign anything.

Suit yourself.

The difference is I just sold a slug of Puts for $1165 each that I bought 2 days ago for $533 (when the mrkt was already down 300). I said then and I'll say now we going to reprice this market for a dem senate/corp tax increase from 21% to 28%. So 15% down. We are half way there.

You can believe and trade your own theory.

[d2bets]

Suit yourself.

The difference is I just sold a slug of Puts for $1165 each that I bought 2 days ago for $533 (when the mrkt was already down 300). I said then and I'll say now we going to reprice this market for a dem senate/corp tax increase from 21% to 28%. So 15% down. We are half way there.

You can believe and trade your own theory.

Well we agree on the result then, just disagree on the reasons.

What do you see as the bottom for the S&P 500? My current thinking is just south of 3,000, like 2,965 or so.

[RoyBacon]

Well we agree on the result then, just disagree on the reasons.

What do you see as the bottom for the S&P 500? My current thinking is just south of 3,000, like 2,965 or so.

That's a little low. A while back I thought we could see 3000 but then we ran up to 3500 so we have the SPY at $330 down 6% this week.

It really depends on the election.

We know 2 positive bumps are days away; stimulus and a vaccine application. We know there is one negative bump; Dems.

I'd say 310-315 on the SPY or 3100-3150 on the SnP will hold.